Fanny Bergström | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Identifiability in epidemic models with prior immunity and under-reporting

Identifiability is the property in mathematical modelling that determines if model parameters can be uniquely estimated from data. For infectious disease models, failure to ensure identifiability can lead to misleading parameter estimates and unreliable policy recommendations. We examine the identifiability of a modified SIR model that accounts for under-reporting and pre-existing immunity in the population. We provide a mathematical proof of the unidentifiability of jointly estimating three parameters: the fraction under-reporting, the proportion of the population with prior immunity, and the community transmission rate, when only reported case data are available. We then show, analytically and with a simulation study, that the identifiability of all three parameters is achieved if the reported incidence is complemented with sample survey data of prior immunity or prevalence during the outbreak. Our results show the limitations of parameter inference in partially observed epidemics and the importance of identifiability analysis when developing and applying models for public health decision making.

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arXiv2022

Nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden

The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, e.g., in the form of a time-series of reported cases or fatalities, is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of an adverse health event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This real-time analysis is complicated by reporting delays that lead to underreporting of the number of events for the most recent time points (e.g., days or weeks). This can lead to misconceptions by the interpreter, e.g., the media or the public, as was the case with the time-series of reported fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. Nowcasting methods provide real-time estimates of the complete number of events using the incomplete time-series of currently reported events by using information about the reporting delays from the past. Here, we consider nowcasting the number of COVID-19-related fatalities in Sweden. We propose a flexible Bayesian approach, extending existing nowcasting methods by incorporating regression components to accommodate additional information provided by leading indicators such as time-series of the number of reported cases and ICU admissions. By a retrospective evaluation, we show that the inclusion of ICU admissions as a leading signal improved the nowcasting performance of case fatalities for COVID-19 in Sweden compared to existing methods.

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