arXiv subjects

Faris Janjoš

Publications and source records attributed to Faris Janjoš.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

INTERACT: Interactive Planning for Autonomous Driving via Anchor-Conditioned Prediction and Trust-Region Refinement

Driving in dense urban traffic is interactive: whether a merge or an unprotected turn succeeds depends on how surrounding agents respond to the ego vehicle. Conventional planners predict first and plan second and, therefore, cannot account for this dependency. Methods that integrate prediction and planning either train both jointly, which introduces task interference, or keep them separate and are restricted to a predefined set of proposals. We present INTERACT: Interactive Planning for Autonomous Driving via Anchor-Conditioned Prediction and Trust-Region Refinement. Our key insight is that surrounding agents react to the intent a trajectory expresses rather than to its exact realization, so a single reactive prediction stays valid across an entire family of plans. INTERACT therefore decomposes interactive planning into prediction across driving intents and optimization within each intent. We derive a small set of diverse intents, which we call anchors, from map geometry, query a dedicated ego-conditioned prediction model once per anchor, and refine every anchor with the Cross-Entropy Method under a trust-region penalty that keeps the refined plan close enough to its anchor for the conditioned reaction to still apply. Prediction thus remains a separate model, avoiding task interference, while conditioning on anchors preserves the dependency. Because each anchor is refined continuously, the final plan is not restricted to the anchor set, yet INTERACT requires only one predictor query per anchor rather than one per candidate plan, with all anchors processed in parallel. On the nuPlan and interPlan closed-loop benchmarks, INTERACT sets a new state of the art, with the largest gains precisely in the interactive scenarios that motivate the method. The code will be released upon acceptance.

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arXiv2026

Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Response

Autonomous driving planning systems perform nearly perfectly in routine scenarios using lightweight, rule-based methods but still struggle in dense urban traffic, where lane changes and merges require anticipating and influencing other agents. Modern motion predictors offer highly accurate forecasts, yet their integration into planning is mostly rudimental: discarding unsafe plans. Similarly, end-to-end models offer a one-way integration that avoids the challenges of joint prediction and planning modeling under uncertainty. In contrast, game-theoretic formulations offer a principled alternative but have seen limited adoption in autonomous driving. We present Bayesian Iterative Best Response (BIBeR), a framework that unifies motion prediction and game-theoretic planning into a single interaction-aware process. BIBeR is the first to integrate a state-of-the-art predictor into an Iterative Best Response (IBR) loop, repeatedly refining the strategies of the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This repeated best-response process approximates a Nash equilibrium, enabling bidirectional adaptation where the ego both reacts to and shapes the behavior of others. In addition, our proposed Bayesian confidence estimation quantifies prediction reliability and modulates update strength, more conservative under low confidence and more decisive under high confidence. BIBeR is compatible with modern predictors and planners, combining the transparency of structured planning with the flexibility of learned models. Experiments show that BIBeR achieves an 11% improvement over state-of-the-art planners on highly interactive interPlan lane-change scenarios, while also outperforming existing approaches on standard nuPlan benchmarks.

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arXiv2026

PRISM: Privileged Probabilistic Latent Supervision for End-to-End Autonomous Driving Motion Planning

End-to-end autonomous driving (E2E AD) systems integrate perception, prediction, and planning into a single differentiable architecture. While these models show great promise, their standard training often relies on output-only supervision, which can lead to weak gradients for the hidden layers of increasingly complex models. Recent works have integrated vision-language model (VLM) supervision for latent features to address this, yielding substantial empirical gains, yet leaving the underlying theoretical mechanisms poorly understood. Our investigation into this methodology reveals that the resulting performance gains stem not from VLM reasoning capabilities, as previously assumed, but rather from the latent connections forged between the E2E AD model and ground-truth (GT) data during training. Building on this insight, we propose a probabilistic deep supervision framework that regularizes intermediate latent representations directly from GT data. By treating model latents as reparameterizable distributions, we optimize the architecture via the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Our evaluations conducted on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that supervising trajectory-related latents with future GT paths consistently improves planning performance. Using identical training data and E2E architectures, our method achieves an 8% reduction in planning L2 error and a 3% decrease in collision rates compared to competitive vectorized baselines, all while incurring negligible computational overhead.

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arXiv2026

Beyond Self-Play and Scale: A Behavior Benchmark for Generalization in Autonomous Driving

Recent Autonomous Driving (AD) works such as GigaFlow and PufferDrive have unlocked Reinforcement Learning (RL) at scale as a training strategy for driving policies. Yet such policies remain disconnected from established benchmarks, leaving the performance of large-scale RL for driving on standardized evaluations unknown. We present BehaviorBench -- a comprehensive test suite that closes this gap along three axes: Evaluation, Complexity, and Behavior Diversity. In terms of Evaluation, we provide an interface connecting PufferDrive to nuPlan, which, for the first time, enables policies trained via RL at scale to be evaluated on an established planning benchmark for autonomous driving. Complementarily, we offer an evaluation framework that allows planners to be benchmarked directly inside the PufferDrive simulation, at a fraction of the time. Regarding Complexity, we observe that today's standardized benchmarks are so simple that near-perfect scores are achievable by straight lane following with collision checking. We extract a meaningful, interaction-rich split from the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) on which strong performance is impossible without multi-agent reasoning. Lastly, we address Behavior Diversity. Existing benchmarks commonly evaluate planners against a single rule-based traffic model, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). We provide a diverse suite of interactive traffic agents to stress-test policies under heterogeneous behaviors, beyond just using IDM. Overall, our benchmarking analysis uncovers the following insight: despite learning interactive behaviors in an emergent manner, policies trained via pure self-play under standard reward functions overfit to their training opponents and fail to generalize to other traffic agent behaviors. Building on this observation, we propose a hybrid planner that combines a PPO policy with a rule-based planner.

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arXiv2026

Uncertainty Matters: Structured Probabilistic Online Mapping for Motion Prediction in Autonomous Driving

Online map generation and trajectory prediction are critical components of the autonomous driving perception-prediction-planning pipeline. While modern vectorized mapping models achieve high geometric accuracy, they typically treat map estimation as a deterministic task, discarding structural uncertainty. Existing probabilistic approaches often rely on diagonal covariance matrices, which assume independence between points and fail to capture the strong spatial correlations inherent in road geometry. To address this, we propose a structured probabilistic formulation for online map generation. Our method explicitly models intra-element dependencies by predicting a dense covariance matrix, parameterized via a Low-Rank plus Diagonal (LRPD) covariance decomposition. This formulation represents uncertainty as a combination of a low-rank component, which captures global spatial structure, and a diagonal component representing independent local noise, thereby capturing geometric correlations without the prohibitive computational cost of full covariance matrices. Evaluations on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware framework yields consistent improvements in online map generation quality compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, our approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for map-based motion prediction, highlighting the critical role of uncertainty in planning tasks. Code is published under link-available-soon.

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arXiv2025

Perfect Prediction or Plenty of Proposals? What Matters Most in Planning for Autonomous Driving

Traditionally, prediction and planning in autonomous driving (AD) have been treated as separate, sequential modules. Recently, there has been a growing shift towards tighter integration of these components, known as Integrated Prediction and Planning (IPP), with the aim of enabling more informed and adaptive decision-making. However, it remains unclear to what extent this integration actually improves planning performance. In this work, we investigate the role of prediction in IPP approaches, drawing on the widely adopted Val14 benchmark, which encompasses more common driving scenarios with relatively low interaction complexity, and the interPlan benchmark, which includes highly interactive and out-of-distribution driving situations. Our analysis reveals that even access to perfect future predictions does not lead to better planning outcomes, indicating that current IPP methods often fail to fully exploit future behavior information. Instead, we focus on high-quality proposal generation, while using predictions primarily for collision checks. We find that many imitation learning-based planners struggle to generate realistic and plausible proposals, performing worse than PDM - a simple lane-following approach. Motivated by this observation, we build on PDM with an enhanced proposal generation method, shifting the emphasis towards producing diverse but realistic and high-quality proposals. This proposal-centric approach significantly outperforms existing methods, especially in out-of-distribution and highly interactive settings, where it sets new state-of-the-art results.

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arXiv2025

Stochasticity in Motion: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Trajectory Prediction

In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is crucial for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners require reliable uncertainty estimates of the predicted behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has received limited attention. In particular, decomposing uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components is essential for distinguishing between inherent environmental randomness and model uncertainty, thereby enabling more robust and informed decision-making. This paper addresses the challenge of uncertainty modeling in trajectory prediction with a holistic approach that emphasizes uncertainty quantification, decomposition, and the impact of model composition. Our method, grounded in information theory, provides a theoretically principled way to measure uncertainty and decompose it into aleatoric and epistemic components. Unlike prior work, our approach is compatible with state-of-the-art motion predictors, allowing for broader applicability. We demonstrate its utility by conducting extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset, which shows how different architectures and configurations influence uncertainty quantification and model robustness.

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arXiv2024

Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimization

Forecasting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is crucial for autonomous vehicles to ensure safe, efficient, and comfortable route planning. While model ensembling has improved prediction accuracy in various fields, its application in trajectory prediction is limited due to the multi-modal nature of predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel sampling method applicable to trajectory prediction based on the predictions of multiple models. We first show that conventional sampling based on predicted probabilities can degrade performance due to missing alignment between models. To address this problem, we introduce a new method that generates optimal trajectories from a set of neural networks, framing it as a risk minimization problem with a variable loss function. By using state-of-the-art models as base learners, our approach constructs diverse and effective ensembles for optimal trajectory sampling. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes prediction dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses current state-of-the-art techniques, achieving top ranks on the leaderboard. We also provide a comprehensive empirical study on ensembling strategies, offering insights into their effectiveness. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced ensembling techniques in trajectory prediction, significantly improving predictive performance and paving the way for more reliable predicted trajectories.

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arXiv2024

Conditional Unscented Autoencoders for Trajectory Prediction

The CVAE is one of the most widely-used models in trajectory prediction for AD. It captures the interplay between a driving context and its ground-truth future into a probabilistic latent space and uses it to produce predictions. In this paper, we challenge key components of the CVAE. We leverage recent advances in the space of the VAE, the foundation of the CVAE, which show that a simple change in the sampling procedure can greatly benefit performance. We find that unscented sampling, which draws samples from any learned distribution in a deterministic manner, can naturally be better suited to trajectory prediction than potentially dangerous random sampling. We go further and offer additional improvements including a more structured Gaussian mixture latent space, as well as a novel, potentially more expressive way to do inference with CVAEs. We show wide applicability of our models by evaluating them on the INTERACTION prediction dataset, outperforming the state of the art, as well as at the task of image modeling on the CelebA dataset, outperforming the baseline vanilla CVAE. Code is available at https://github.com/boschresearch/cuae-prediction.

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arXiv2023

Unscented Autoencoder

The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a seminal approach in deep generative modeling with latent variables. Interpreting its reconstruction process as a nonlinear transformation of samples from the latent posterior distribution, we apply the Unscented Transform (UT) -- a well-known distribution approximation used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) from the field of filtering. A finite set of statistics called sigma points, sampled deterministically, provides a more informative and lower-variance posterior representation than the ubiquitous noise-scaling of the reparameterization trick, while ensuring higher-quality reconstruction. We further boost the performance by replacing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with the Wasserstein distribution metric that allows for a sharper posterior. Inspired by the two components, we derive a novel, deterministic-sampling flavor of the VAE, the Unscented Autoencoder (UAE), trained purely with regularization-like terms on the per-sample posterior. We empirically show competitive performance in Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) scores over closely-related models, in addition to a lower training variance than the VAE.

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arXiv2023

Bridging the Gap Between Multi-Step and One-Shot Trajectory Prediction via Self-Supervision

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an unsolved problem in autonomous driving with various open research questions. State-of-the-art approaches regress trajectories either in a one-shot or step-wise manner. Although one-shot approaches are usually preferred for their simplicity, they relinquish powerful self-supervision schemes that can be constructed by chaining multiple time-steps. We address this issue by proposing a middle-ground where multiple trajectory segments are chained together. Our proposed Multi-Branch Self-Supervised Predictor receives additional training on new predictions starting at intermediate future segments. In addition, the model 'imagines' the latent context and 'predicts the past' while combining multi-modal trajectories in a tree-like manner. We deliberately keep aspects such as interaction and environment modeling simplistic and nevertheless achieve competitive results on the INTERACTION dataset. Furthermore, we investigate the sparsely explored uncertainty estimation of deterministic predictors. We find positive correlations between the prediction error and two proposed metrics, which might pave way for determining prediction confidence.

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arXiv2022

StarNet: Joint Action-Space Prediction with Star Graphs and Implicit Global Frame Self-Attention

In this work, we present a novel multi-modal multi-agent trajectory prediction architecture, focusing on map and interaction modeling using graph representation. For the purposes of map modeling, we capture rich topological structure into vector-based star graphs, which enable an agent to directly attend to relevant regions along polylines that are used to represent the map. We denote this architecture StarNet, and integrate it in a single-agent prediction setting. As the main result, we extend this architecture to joint scene-level prediction, which produces multiple agents' predictions simultaneously. The key idea in joint-StarNet is integrating the awareness of one agent in its own reference frame with how it is perceived from the points of view of other agents. We achieve this via masked self-attention. Both proposed architectures are built on top of the action-space prediction framework introduced in our previous work, which ensures kinematically feasible trajectory predictions. We evaluate the methods on the interaction-rich inD and INTERACTION datasets, with both StarNet and joint-StarNet achieving improvements over state of the art.

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arXiv2021

Self-Supervised Action-Space Prediction for Automated Driving

Making informed driving decisions requires reliable prediction of other vehicles' trajectories. In this paper, we present a novel learned multi-modal trajectory prediction architecture for automated driving. It achieves kinematically feasible predictions by casting the learning problem into the space of accelerations and steering angles -- by performing action-space prediction, we can leverage valuable model knowledge. Additionally, the dimensionality of the action manifold is lower than that of the state manifold, whose intrinsically correlated states are more difficult to capture in a learned manner. For the purpose of action-space prediction, we present the simple Feed-Forward Action-Space Prediction (FFW-ASP) architecture. Then, we build on this notion and introduce the novel Self-Supervised Action-Space Prediction (SSP-ASP) architecture that outputs future environment context features in addition to trajectories. A key element in the self-supervised architecture is that, based on an observed action history and past context features, future context features are predicted prior to future trajectories. The proposed methods are evaluated on real-world datasets containing urban intersections and roundabouts, and show accurate predictions, outperforming state-of-the-art for kinematically feasible predictions in several prediction metrics.

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