arXiv subjects

Farzaneh Zohrabi

Publications and source records attributed to Farzaneh Zohrabi.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Prospects for Reconstructing the Free-floating Planet Mass Function at the Population Level with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

Free-floating planets comprise one of the most enigmatic populations of exoplanets in the Galaxy. Though ground-based observations point to a large abundance of these worlds, little is known about their origins and demographics. In the coming years, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope's Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey is expected to detect several hundred free-floating planets, providing the first opportunity to characterize these worlds at the population level. We present a first study of Roman's prospects for reconstructing the mass distribution of free-floating planets through population-level statistical inference. We find that depending on the true underlying mass distribution of free-floating planets in the Galaxy, Roman will be able to improve upon existing estimates of the abundance by orders of magnitudes in the largely unexplored mass range below that of Earth. When applied to Roman's observations, the methodology we present herein will be capable of discriminating between different hypothesized mass distributions at high statistical significance, opening a new window into the origins of these rogue worlds.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations I: Model Description & Evaluation

The optimization and interpretation of microlensing surveys depends on having an accurate model of the Milky Way. However, existing population synthesis Galactic modeling tools often perform poorly in replicating the stellar contents of the inner Galactic bulge region and reproducing microlensing survey results. We present an updated Galactic model implementation within the \synthpop framework that has been tuned for simulating the upcoming {\it Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope}'s Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (RGBTDS). We evaluate the model against stellar catalogs and kinematics from optical and infrared surveys toward the Galactic bulge, finding good agreement in much of the bulge, including the RGBTDS' contiguous lower bulge fields. However, within Galactic latitudes of $b\lesssim0.5^\circ$ of the Galactic plane, some inconsistencies arise which may impact projections for the RGBTDS' Galactic center field. The model over-predicts optical microlensing event rate per star measurements by a $\sim20$\%, but detailed comparisons to near-infrared measurements are hampered by their lack of detection efficiencies. {\it Roman}'s GBTDS and Galactic Plane Survey will be instrumental in resolving the remaining model inconsistencies and improving our understanding of the structure of the central few degrees of our Galaxy.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $χ^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

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arXiv2025

SynthPop: A New Framework for Synthetic Milky Way Population Generation

We present SynthPop, a new open source, modular population synthesis Galactic modeling software to simulate catalogs of Milky Way stars along any sightline outward from the Sun. Motivated by a lack flexibility in existing Galactic models, SynthPop is coded entirely in python, can be run standalone or as an imported module, and is configured by json files that allow different model components to be switched out as desired. We describe the modular code structure, how the population generation process runs, and how to use the code. We also present model validation testing and known inaccuracies, and present an example of the code use, comparing Gaia data and the Gaia Universe Model Snapshot to a SynthPop implementation. The code is available now via GitHub with ReadTheDocs documentation and can be installed via pip.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

TOI 560 : Two Transiting Planets Orbiting a K Dwarf Validated with iSHELL, PFS and HIRES RVs

We validate the presence of a two-planet system orbiting the 0.15--1.4 Gyr K4 dwarf TOI 560 (HD 73583). The system consists of an inner moderately eccentric transiting mini-Neptune (TOI 560 b, $P = 6.3980661^{+0.0000095}_{-0.0000097}$ days, $e=0.294^{+0.13}_{-0.062}$, $M= 0.94^{+0.31}_{-0.23}M_{Nep}$) initially discovered in the Sector 8 \tess\ mission observations, and a transiting mini-Neptune (TOI 560 c, $P = 18.8805^{+0.0024}_{-0.0011}$ days, $M= 1.32^{+0.29}_{-0.32}M_{Nep}$) discovered in the Sector 34 observations, in a rare near-1:3 orbital resonance. We utilize photometric data from \tess\, \textit{Spitzer}, and ground-based follow-up observations to confirm the ephemerides and period of the transiting planets, vet false positive scenarios, and detect the photo-eccentric effect for TOI 560 b. We obtain follow-up spectroscopy and corresponding precise radial velocities (RVs) with the iSHELL spectrograph at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility and the HIRES Spectrograph at Keck Observatory to validate the planetary nature of these signals, which we combine with published PFS RVs from Magellan Observatory. We detect the masses of both planets at $> 3-σ$ significance. We apply a Gaussian process (GP) model to the \tess\ light curves to place priors on a chromatic radial velocity GP model to constrain the stellar activity of the TOI 560 host star, and confirm a strong wavelength dependence for the stellar activity demonstrating the ability of NIR RVs in mitigating stellar activity for young K dwarfs. TOI 560 is a nearby moderately young multi-planet system with two planets suitable for atmospheric characterization with James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and other upcoming missions. In particular, it will undergo six transit pairs separated by $<$6 hours before June 2027.

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arXiv2022

A close-in puffy Neptune with hidden friends: The enigma of TOI 620

We present the validation of a transiting low-density exoplanet orbiting the M2.5 dwarf TOI 620 discovered by the NASA TESS mission. We utilize photometric data from both TESS and ground-based follow-up observations to validate the ephemerides of the 5.09-day transiting signal and vet false positive scenarios. High-contrast imaging data are used to resolve the stellar host and exclude stellar companions at separations $\gtrsim 0.2''$. We obtain follow-up spectroscopy and corresponding precise radial velocities (RVs) with multiple PRV spectrographs to confirm the planetary nature of the transiting exoplanet. We calculate a 5$σ$ upper limit of $M_P < 7.1$ M$_\oplus$ and $ρ_P < 0.74$ g cm$^{-3}$, and we identify a non-transiting 17.7-day candidate. We also find evidence for a substellar (1-20 M$_{\rm J}$) companion with a projected separation $\lesssim 20$ au from a combined analysis of Gaia, AO imaging, and RVs. With the discovery of this outer companion, we carry out a detailed exploration of the possibilities that TOI 620 b might instead be a circum-secondary planet or a pair of eclipsing binary stars orbiting the host in a hierarchical triple system. We find, under scrutiny, that we can exclude both of these scenarios from the multi-wavelength transit photometry, thus validating TOI 620 b as a low-density exoplanet transiting the central star in this system. The low density of TOI 620 b makes it one of the most amenable exoplanets for atmospheric characterization, such as with JWST and Ariel, validated or confirmed by the TESS mission to date.

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arXiv2021

Diving Beneath the Sea of Stellar Activity: Chromatic Radial Velocities of the Young AU Mic Planetary System

We present updated radial-velocity (RV) analyses of the AU Mic system. AU Mic is a young (22 Myr) early M dwarf known to host two transiting planets - $P_{b}\sim8.46$ days, $R_{b}=4.38_{-0.18}^{+0.18}\ R_{\oplus}$, $P_{c}\sim18.86$ days, $R_{c}=3.51_{-0.16}^{+0.16}\ R_{\oplus}$. With visible RVs from CARMENES-VIS, CHIRON, HARPS, HIRES, {\sc {\textsc{Minerva}}}-Australis, and TRES, as well as near-infrared (NIR) RVs from CARMENES-NIR, CSHELL, IRD, iSHELL, NIRSPEC, and SPIRou, we provide a $5σ$ upper limit to the mass of AU Mic c of $M_{c}\leq20.13\ M_{\oplus}$ and present a refined mass of AU Mic b of $M_{b}=20.12_{-1.57}^{+1.72}\ M_{\oplus}$. Used in our analyses is a new RV modeling toolkit to exploit the wavelength dependence of stellar activity present in our RVs via wavelength-dependent Gaussian processes. By obtaining near-simultaneous visible and near-infrared RVs, we also compute the temporal evolution of RV-``color'' and introduce a regressional method to aid in isolating Keplerian from stellar activity signals when modeling RVs in future works. Using a multi-wavelength Gaussian process model, we demonstrate the ability to recover injected planets at $5σ$ significance with semi-amplitudes down to $\approx$ 10\,m\,s$^{-1}$ with a known ephemeris, more than an order of magnitude below the stellar activity amplitude. However, we find that the accuracy of the recovered semi-amplitudes is $\sim$50\% for such signals with our model.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

The Magellan-TESS Survey I: Survey Description and Mid-Survey Results

$Kepler$ revealed that roughly one-third of Sun-like stars host planets orbiting within 100 days and between the size of Earth and Neptune. How do these planets form, what are they made of, and do they represent a continuous population or multiple populations? To help address these questions, we began the Magellan-TESS Survey (MTS), which uses Magellan II/PFS to obtain radial velocity (RV) masses of 30 TESS-detected exoplanets and develops an analysis framework that connects observed planet distributions to underlying populations. In the past, small planet RV measurements have been challenging to obtain due to host star faintness and low RV semi-amplitudes, and challenging to interpret due to the potential biases in target selection and observation planning decisions. The MTS attempts to minimize these biases by focusing on bright TESS targets and employing a quantitative selection function and observing strategy. In this paper, we (1) describe our motivation and survey strategy, (2) present our first catalog of planet density constraints for 27 TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs; 22 in our population analysis sample, 12 that are members of the same systems), and (3) employ a hierarchical Bayesian model to produce preliminary constraints on the mass-radius (M-R) relation. We find that the biases causing previous M-R relations to predict fairly high masses at $1~R_\oplus$ have been reduced. This work can inform more detailed studies of individual systems and offer a framework that can be applied to future RV surveys with the goal of population inferences.

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