Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Federica Nicolussi

Publications and source records attributed to Federica Nicolussi.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

K-Models: a Flexible and Interpretable Method for Ordinal Clustering with Application to Antigen-Antibody Interaction Profiles

Existing clustering methods for functional data often prioritize partitioning accuracy over interpretability, making it challenging to extract meaningful insights when the data-generating process follows a specific underlying structure and an ordinal relationship among clusters is suspected. This work introduces K-Models, a novel framework that integrates ordinal constraints and estimates key underlying elements of the random process generating the observed functional profiles, improving both interpretability and structure identification. The proposed method is evaluated through simulations and real-world applications. In particular, it is tested on Region of Interest (ROI) curves, which represent reaction profiles from a reflectometric sensor monitoring biomolecular interactions, such as antigen-antibody binding. These curves represent changes in reflected light intensity over time at multiple measurement spots with immobilized antigens during analyte exposure, capturing the binding dynamics of the system. The goal is to identify intrinsic signal patterns solely from the observed dynamics, making this dataset an ideal benchmark for assessing the added interpretability of the proposed approach. By incorporating structural assumptions into the clustering process, K-Models enhances interpretability while maintaining performance comparable to state-of-the-art techniques, providing a valuable tool for analyzing functional data with an underlying ordinal structure.

stat.ML↗

Functional-Ordinal Canonical Correlation Analysis With Application to Data from Optical Sensors

We address the problem of predicting a target ordinal variable based on observable features consisting of functional profiles. This problem is crucial, especially in decision-making driven by sensor systems, when the goal is to assess an ordinal variable such as the degree of deterioration, quality level, or risk stage of a process, starting from functional data observed via sensors. We purposely introduce a novel approach called functional-ordinal Canonical Correlation Analysis (foCCA), which is based on a functional data analysis approach. FoCCA allows for dimensionality reduction of observable features while maximizing their ability to differentiate between consecutive levels of an ordinal target variable. Unlike existing methods for supervised learning from functional data, foCCA fully incorporates the ordinal nature of the target variable. This enables the model to capture and represent the relative dissimilarities between consecutive levels of the ordinal target, while also explaining these differences through the functional features. Extensive simulations demonstrate that foCCA outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction accuracy in the reduced feature space. A case study involving the prediction of antigen concentration levels from optical biosensor signals further confirms the superior performance of foCCA, showcasing both improved predictive power and enhanced interpretability compared to competing approaches.

stat.ME↗

Pandemic Data Quality Modelling: A Bayesian Approach

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to have always a firm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and to envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve over the next weeks. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by official statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population.

stat.AP↗

Modelling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with COVID-19 cause specific death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from open official data data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.

stat.AP↗

COVID-Pro in Italy: a dashboard for a province-based analysis

This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional authorities' official press conferences. Descriptive time series plots are provided together with a map describing the spatial distribution of province cumulative cases and rates. A section on a proposed time-dependent adjusted SIRD model for NUTS-3 regions is also provided in the dashboard.

q-bio.PE↗

Context-specific independencies for ordinal variables in chain regression models

In this work we handle with categorical (ordinal) variables and we focus on the (in)dependence relationship under the marginal, conditional and context-specific perspective. If the first two are well known, the last one concerns independencies holding only in a subspace of the outcome space. We take advantage from the Hierarchical Multinomial Marginal models and provide several original results about the representation of context-specific independencies through these models. By considering the graphical aspect, we take advantage from the chain graphical models. The resultant graphical model is a so-called "stratified" chain graphical model with labelled arcs. New Markov properties are provided. Furthermore, we consider the graphical models under the regression poit of view. Here we provide simplification of the regression parameters due to the context-specific independencies. Finally, an application about the innovation degree of the Italian enterprises is provided.

stat.ME↗