arXiv subjects

Federico Benvenuto

Publications and source records attributed to Federico Benvenuto.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

First hard X-ray imaging results by Solar Orbiter STIX

Context. The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is one of 6 remote sensing instruments on-board Solar Orbiter. It provides hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy of solar flares by sampling the Fourier transform of the incoming flux. Aims. To show that the visibility amplitude and phase calibration of 24 out of 30 STIX sub-collimators is well advanced and that a set of imaging methods is able to provide the first hard X-ray images of the flaring Sun from Solar Orbiter. Methods. We applied four visibility-based image reconstruction methods and a count-based one to calibrated STIX observations. The resulting reconstructions are compared to those provided by an optimization algorithm used for fitting the amplitudes of STIX visibilities. Results. When applied to six flares with GOES class between C4 and M4 which occurred in May 2021, the five imaging methods produce results morphologically consistent with the ones provided by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on-board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO/AIA) in UV wavelengths. The $χ^2$ values and the parameters of the reconstructed sources are comparable between methods, thus confirming their robustness. Conclusions. This paper shows that the current calibration of the main part of STIX sub-collimators has reached a satisfactory level for scientific data exploitation, and that the imaging algorithms already available in the STIX data analysis software provide reliable and robust reconstructions of the morphology of solar flares.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Regularization from examples via neural networks for parametric inverse problems: topology matters

In this work we deal with parametric inverse problems, which consist in recovering a finite number of parameters describing the structure of an unknown object, from indirect measurements. State-of-the-art methods for approximating a regularizing inverse operator by using a dataset of input-output pairs of the forward model rely on deep learning techniques. In these approaches, a neural network is trained to predict the value of the sought parameters directly from the data. In this paper, we show that these methods provide suboptimal results when the topology of the parameter space is strictly coarser than the Euclidean one. To overcome this issue, we propose a two-step strategy for approximating a regularizing inverse operator by means of a neural network, which works under general topological conditions. First, we embed the parameters into a subspace of a low-dimensional Euclidean space; second, we use a neural network to approximate a homeomorphism between the subspace and the image of the parameter space through the forward operator. The parameters are then retrieved by applying the inverse of the embedding to the network predictions. The results are shown for the problem of X-ray imaging of solar flares with data from the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays. In this case, the parameter space is a family of Moebius strips that collapse into a point. Our simulation studies show that the use of a neural network for predicting the parameters directly from the data yields systematic errors due to the non-Euclidean topology of the parameter space. The proposed strategy overcomes the topological issues and furnishes stable and accurate reconstructions.

math.NA↗

arXiv2021

Implementation paradigm for supervised flare forecasting studies: a deep learning application with video data

Solar flare forecasting can be realized by means of the analysis of magnetic data through artificial intelligence techniques. The aim is to predict whether a magnetic active region (AR) will originate solar flares above a certain class within a certain amount of time. A crucial issue is concerned with the way the adopted machine learning method is implemented, since forecasting results strongly depend on the criterion with which training, validation, and test sets are populated. In this paper we propose a general paradigm to generate these sets in such a way that they are independent from each other and internally well-balanced in terms of AR flaring effectiveness. This set generation process provides a ground for comparison for the performance assessment of machine learning algorithms. Finally, we use this implementation paradigm in the case of a deep neural network, which takes as input videos of magnetograms recorded by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). To our knowledge, this is the first time that the solar flare forecasting problem is addressed by means of a deep neural network for video classification, which does not require any a priori extraction of features from the HMI magnetograms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Prediction of severe thunderstorm events with ensemble deep learning and radar data

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the present paper illustrates how a deep learning method, exploiting videos of radar reflectivity frames as input, can be used to realize a warning machine able to sound timely alarms of possible severe thunderstorm events. From a technical viewpoint, the computational core of this approach is the use of a value-weighted skill score for both transforming the probabilistic outcomes of the deep neural network into binary classification and assessing the forecasting performances. The warning machine has been validated against weather radar data recorded in the Liguria region, in Italy,

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Imaging from STIX visibility amplitudes

Aims: To provide the first demonstration of STIX Fourier-transform X-ray imaging using semi-calibrated (amplitude-only) visibility data acquired during the Solar Orbiter's cruise phase. Methods: We use a parametric imaging approach by which STIX visibility amplitudes are fitted by means of two non-linear optimization methods: a fast meta-heuristic technique inspired by social behavior, and a Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling method, which, although slower, provides better quantification of uncertainties. Results: When applied to a set of solar flare visibility amplitudes recorded by STIX on November 18, 2020 the two parametric methods provide very coherent results. The analysis also demonstrates the ability of STIX to reconstruct high time resolution information and, from a spectral viewpoint, shows the reliability of a double-source scenario consistent with a thermal versus nonthermal interpretation. Conclusions: In this preliminary analysis of STIX imaging based only on visibility amplitudes, we formulate the imaging problem as a non-linear parametric issue we addressed by means of two high-performance optimization techniques that both showed the ability to sample the parametric space in an effective fashion, thus avoiding local minima.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

STIX X-ray microflare observations during the Solar Orbiter commissioning phase

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is the HXR instrument onboard Solar Orbiter designed to observe solar flares over a broad range of flare sizes, between 4-150 keV. We report the first STIX observations of microflares recorded during the instrument commissioning phase in order to investigate the STIX performance at its detection limit. This first result paper focuses on the temporal and spectral evolution of STIX microflares occuring in the AR12765 in June 2020, and compares the STIX measurements with GOES/XRS, SDO/AIA, and Hinode/XRT. For the observed microflares of the GOES A and B class, the STIX peak time at lowest energies is located in the impulsive phase of the flares, well before the GOES peak time. Such a behavior can either be explained by the higher sensitivity of STIX to higher temperatures compared to GOES, or due to the existence of a nonthermal component reaching down to low energies. The interpretation is inconclusive due to limited counting statistics for all but the largest flare in our sample. For this largest flare, the low-energy peak time is clearly due to thermal emission, and the nonthermal component seen at higher energies occurs even earlier. This suggests that the classic thermal explanation might also be favored for the majority of the smaller flares. In combination with EUV and SXR observations, STIX corroborates earlier findings that an isothermal assumption is of limited validity. Future diagnostic efforts should focus on multi-wavelength studies to derive differential emission measure distributions over a wide range of temperatures to accurately describe the energetics of solar flares. Commissioning observations confirm that STIX is working as designed. As a rule of thumb, STIX detects flares as small as the GOES A class. For flares above the GOES B class, detailed spectral and imaging analyses can be performed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Flare Forecasting Algorithms Based on High-Gradient Polarity Inversion Lines in Active Regions

Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task in the space weather field. In this work, we focus on two metrics as flare precursors, the unsigned flux R, tested on MDI/SOHO data and one of the most used parameters for flare forecasting applications, and a novel topological parameter D representing the complexity of a solar active region. More in detail, we propose an algorithm for the computation of the R value which exploits the higher spatial resolution of HMI maps. This algorithm leads to a differently computed R value, whose functionality is tested on a set of cycle 24th solar flares. Furthermore, we introduce a topological parameter based on the automatic recognition of magnetic polarity-inversion lines in identified active regions, and able to evaluate its magnetic topological complexity. We use both a heuristic approach and a supervised machine learning method to validate the effectiveness of these two descriptors to predict the occurrence of X- or M- class flares in a given solar active region during the following 24 hours period. Our feature ranking analysis shows that both parameters play a significant role in prediction performances. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the new topological parameter D is the only one, among 173 overall predictors, which is always present for all test subsets and is systematically ranked within the top-ten positions in all tests concerning the computation of the weighs with which each predictor impacts the flare forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Bad and good errors: value-weighted skill scores in deep ensemble learning

In this paper we propose a novel approach to realize forecast verification. Specifically, we introduce a strategy for assessing the severity of forecast errors based on the evidence that, on the one hand, a false alarm just anticipating an occurring event is better than one in the middle of consecutive non-occurring events, and that, on the other hand, a miss of an isolated event has a worse impact than a miss of a single event, which is part of several consecutive occurrences. Relying on this idea, we introduce a novel definition of confusion matrix and skill scores giving greater importance to the value of the prediction rather than to its quality. Then, we introduce a deep ensemble learning procedure for binary classification, in which the probabilistic outcomes of a neural network are clustered via optimization of these value-weighted skill scores. We finally show the performances of this approach in the case of three applications concerned with pollution, space weather and stock prize forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Predictive risk estimation for the Expectation Maximization algorithm with Poisson data

In this work, we introduce a novel estimator of the predictive risk with Poisson data, when the loss function is the Kullback-Leibler divergence, in order to define a regularization parameter's choice rule for the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. To this aim, we prove a Poisson counterpart of the Stein's Lemma for Gaussian variables, and from this result we derive the proposed estimator showing its analogies with the well-known Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator valid for a quadratic loss. We prove that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased with increasing number of measured counts, under certain mild conditions on the regularization method. We show that these conditions are satisfied by the EM algorithm and then we apply this estimator to select its optimal reconstruction. We present some numerical tests in the case of image deconvolution, comparing the performances of the proposed estimator with other methods available in the literature, both in the inverse crime and non-inverse crime setting.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

Machine learning as a flaring storm warning machine: Was a warning machine for the September 2017 solar flaring storm possible?

Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather. Yet, machine learning has not been able so far to realize an operating warning system for flaring storms and the scientific literature of the last decade suggests that its performances in the prediction of intense solar flares are not optimal. The main difficulties related to forecasting solar flaring storms are probably two. First, most methods are conceived to provide probabilistic predictions and not to send binary yes/no indications on the consecutive occurrence of flares along an extended time range. Second, flaring storms are typically characterized by the explosion of high energy events, which are seldom recorded in the databases of space missions; as a consequence, supervised methods are trained on very imbalanced historical sets, which makes them particularly ineffective for the forecasting of intense flares. Yet, in this study we show that supervised machine learning could be utilized in a way to send timely warnings about the most violent and most unexpected flaring event of the last decade, and even to predict with some accuracy the energy budget daily released by magnetic reconnection during the whole time course of the storm. Further, we show that the combination of sparsity-enhancing machine learning and feature ranking could allow the identification of the prominent role that energy played as an Active Region property in the forecasting process.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

MEM_GE: a new maximum entropy method for image reconstruction from solar X-ray visibilities

Maximum Entropy is an image reconstruction method conceived to image a sparsely occupied field of view and therefore particularly appropriate to achieve super-resolution effects. Although widely used in image deconvolution, this method has been formulated in radio astronomy for the analysis of observations in the spatial frequency domain, and an Interactive Data Language (IDL) code has been implemented for image reconstruction from solar X-ray Fourier data. However, this code relies on a non-convex formulation of the constrained optimization problem addressed by the Maximum Entropy approach and this sometimes results in unreliable reconstructions characterized by unphysical shrinking effects. This paper introduces a new approach to Maximum Entropy based on the constrained minimization of a convex functional. In the case of observations recorded by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), the resulting code provides the same super-resolution effects of the previous algorithm, while working properly also when that code produces unphysical reconstructions. Results are also provided of testing the algorithm with synthetic data simulating observations of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter. The new code is available in the {\em{HESSI}} folder of the Solar SoftWare (SSW)tree.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

A Parameter Choice Rule for Tikhonov Regularization Based on Predictive Risk

In this work, we propose a new criterion for choosing the regularization parameter in Tikhonov regularization when the noise is white Gaussian. The criterion minimizes a lower bound of the predictive risk, when both data norm and noise variance are known, and the parameter choice involves minimizing a function whose solution depends only on the signal-to-noise ratio. Moreover, when neither noise variance nor data norm is given, we propose an iterative algorithm which alternates between a minimization step of finding the regularization parameter and an estimation step of estimating signal-to-noise ratio. Simulation studies on both small- and large-scale datasets suggest that the approach can provide very accurate and stable regularized inverse solutions and, for small sized samples, it outperforms discrepancy principle, balancing principle, unbiased predictive risk estimator, L-curve method generalized cross validation, and quasi-optimality criterion, and achieves excellent stability hitherto unavailable.

math.NA↗

arXiv2019

Feature ranking of active region source properties in solar flare forecasting and the uncompromised stochasticity of flare occurrence

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties extracted from active region observables, most commonly line-of-sight or vector magnetograms of the active-region photosphere. For the purpose of flare forecasting, this study utilizes an unprecedented 171 flare-predictive active region properties, mainly inferred by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) in the course of the European Union Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project. Using two different supervised machine learning methods that allow feature ranking as a function of predictive capability, we show that: i) an objective training and testing process is paramount for the performance of every supervised machine learning method; ii) most properties include overlapping information and are therefore highly redundant for flare prediction; iii) solar flare prediction is still - and will likely remain - a predominantly probabilistic challenge.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Desaturating EUV observations of solar flaring storms

Image saturation has been an issue for several instruments in solar astronomy, mainly at EUV wavelengths. However, with the launch of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) as part of the payload of the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) image saturation has become a big data issue, involving around 10^$ frames of the impressive dataset this beautiful telescope has been providing every year since February 2010. This paper introduces a novel desaturation method, which is able to recover the signal in the saturated region of any AIA image by exploiting no other information but the one contained in the image itself. This peculiar methodological property, jointly with the unprecedented statistical reliability of the desaturated images, could make this algorithm the perfect tool for the realization of a reconstruction pipeline for AIA data, able to work properly even in the case of long-lasting, very energetic flaring events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

A count-based imaging model for the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) will look at solar flares across the hard X-ray window provided by the Solar Orbiter cluster. Similarly to the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), STIX is a visibility-based imaging instrument, which will ask for Fourier-based image reconstruction methods. However, in this paper we show that, as for RHESSI, also for STIX count-based imaging is possible. Specifically, here we introduce and illustrate a mathematical model that mimics the STIX data formation process as a projection from the incoming photon flux into a vector made of 120 count components. Then we test the reliability of Expectation Maximization for image reconstruction in the case of several simulated configurations typical of flare morphology.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2018

Flare forecasting and feature ranking using SDO/HMI data

We describe here the application of a machine learning method for flare forecasting using vectors of properties extracted from images provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). We also discuss how the method can be used to quantitatively assess the impact of such properties on the prediction process.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

On the connection between supervised learning and linear inverse problems

In this paper we investigate the connection between supervised learning and linear inverse problems. We first show that a linear inverse problem can be view as a function approximation problem in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and then we prove that to each of these approximation problems corresponds a class of inverse problems. Analogously, we show that Tikhonov solutions of this class correspond to the Tikhonov solution of the approximation problem. Thanks to this correspondence, we show that supervised learning and linear discrete inverse problems can be thought of as two instances of the approximation problem in a RKHS. These instances are formalized by means of a sampling operator which takes into account both deterministic and random samples and leads to discretized problems. We then analyze the discretized problems and we study the convergence of their solutions to the ones of the approximation problem in a RKHS, both in the deterministic and statistical framework. Finally, we prove there exists a relation between the convergence rates computed with respect to the noise level and the ones computed with respect to the number of samples. This allows us to compare upper and lower bounds given in the statistical learning and in the deterministic infinite dimensional inverse problems theory.

math.NA↗

arXiv2018

FLARECAST: an I4.0 technology for space weather using satellite data

'Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST)' is a Horizon 2020 project, which realized a technological platform for machine learning algorithms, with the objective of providing the space weather community with a prediction service for solar flares. This paper describes the FLARECAST service and shows how the methods implemented in the platform allow both flare prediction and a quantitative assessment of how the information contained in the space data utilized in the analysis may impact the forecasting process.

astro-ph.IM↗