arXiv subjects

Federico Cerutti

Publications and source records attributed to Federico Cerutti.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Assessing the Robustness of Intelligence-Driven Reinforcement Learning

Robustness to noise is of utmost importance in reinforcement learning systems, particularly in military contexts where high stakes and uncertain environments prevail. Noise and uncertainty are inherent features of military operations, arising from factors such as incomplete information, adversarial actions, or unpredictable battlefield conditions. In RL, noise can critically impact decision-making, mission success, and the safety of personnel. Reward machines offer a powerful tool to express complex reward structures in RL tasks, enabling the design of tailored reinforcement signals that align with mission objectives. This paper considers the problem of the robustness of intelligence-driven reinforcement learning based on reward machines. The preliminary results presented suggest the need for further research in evidential reasoning and learning to harden current state-of-the-art reinforcement learning approaches before being mission-critical-ready.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Knowledge from Uncertainty in Evidential Deep Learning

This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) about the current test sample. In particular for computer vision and bidirectional encoder large language models, the `evidential signal' arising from the Dirichlet strength in EDL can, in some cases, discriminate between classes, which is particularly strong when using large language models. We hypothesise that the KL regularisation term causes EDL to couple aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we empirically investigate the correlations between misclassification and evaluated uncertainty, and show that EDL's `evidential signal' is due to misclassification bias. We critically evaluate EDL with other Dirichlet-based approaches, namely Generative Evidential Neural Networks (EDL-GEN) and Prior Networks, and show theoretically and empirically the differences between these loss functions. We conclude that EDL's coupling of uncertainty arises from these differences due to the use (or lack) of out-of-distribution samples during training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Sound-skwatter (Did You Mean: Sound-squatter?) AI-powered Generator for Phishing Prevention

Sound-squatting is a phishing attack that tricks users into malicious resources by exploiting similarities in the pronunciation of words. Proactive defense against sound-squatting candidates is complex, and existing solutions rely on manually curated lists of homophones. We here introduce Sound-skwatter, a multi-language AI-based system that generates sound-squatting candidates for proactive defense. Sound-skwatter relies on an innovative multi-modal combination of Transformers Networks and acoustic models to learn sound similarities. We show that Sound-skwatter can automatically list known homophones and thousands of high-quality candidates. In addition, it covers cross-language sound-squatting, i.e., when the reader and the listener speak different languages, supporting any combination of languages. We apply Sound-skwatter to network-centric phishing via squatted domain names. We find ~ 10% of the generated domains exist in the wild, the vast majority unknown to protection solutions. Next, we show attacks on the PyPI package manager, where ~ 17% of the popular packages have at least one existing candidate. We believe Sound-skwatter is a crucial asset to mitigate the sound-squatting phenomenon proactively on the Internet. To increase its impact, we publish an online demo and release our models and code as open source.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

Research Note on Uncertain Probabilities and Abstract Argumentation

The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C (medium confidence)." Such reports directly feed the public discourse, but nuances such as the degree of belief and of confidence are often lost. In this paper, we propose a formal account for allowing such degrees of belief and the associated confidence to be used to label arguments in abstract argumentation settings. Differently from other proposals in probabilistic argumentation, we focus on the task of probabilistic inference over a chosen query building upon Sato's distribution semantics which has been already shown to encompass a variety of cases including the semantics of Bayesian networks. Borrowing from the vast literature on such semantics, we examine how such tasks can be dealt with in practice when considering uncertain probabilities, and discuss the connections with existing proposals for probabilistic argumentation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

SOLBP: Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation for Inference in Uncertain Bayesian Networks

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagation to the setting of second-order Bayesian networks, giving rise to Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation (SOLBP). For second-order Bayesian networks, SOLBP generates inferences consistent with those generated by sum-product networks, while being more computationally efficient and scalable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Uncertain Bayesian Networks: Learning from Incomplete Data

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the probabilities and quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We refer to these cases as uncer tain or second-order Bayesian networks. When such data are complete, i.e., all variable values are observed for each instantiation, the conditional probabilities are known to be Dirichlet-distributed. This paper improves the current state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks by enabling them to learn distributions for their parameters, i.e., conditional probabilities, with incomplete data. We extensively evaluate various methods to learn the posterior of the parameters through the desired and empirically derived strength of confidence bounds for various queries.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Using DeepProbLog to perform Complex Event Processing on an Audio Stream

In this paper, we present an approach to Complex Event Processing (CEP) that is based on DeepProbLog. This approach has the following objectives: (i) allowing the use of subsymbolic data as an input, (ii) retaining the flexibility and modularity on the definitions of complex event rules, (iii) allowing the system to be trained in an end-to-end manner and (iv) being robust against noisily labelled data. Our approach makes use of DeepProbLog to create a neuro-symbolic architecture that combines a neural network to process the subsymbolic data with a probabilistic logic layer to allow the user to define the rules for the complex events. We demonstrate that our approach is capable of detecting complex events from an audio stream. We also demonstrate that our approach is capable of training even with a dataset that has a moderate proportion of noisy data.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2021

Fudge: A light-weight solver for abstract argumentation based on SAT reductions

We present Fudge, an abstract argumentation solver that tightly integrates satisfiability solving technology to solve a series of abstract argumentation problems. While most of the encodings used by Fudge derive from standard translation approaches, Fudge makes use of completely novel encodings to solve the skeptical reasoning problem wrt. preferred semantics and problems wrt. ideal semantics.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Handling Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties in Probabilistic Circuits

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for probabilistic reasoning in order to determine the confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) in the probabilities in light of the training data. We propose an approach to overcome the independence assumption behind most of the approaches dealing with a large class of probabilistic reasoning that includes Bayesian networks as well as several instances of probabilistic logic. We provide an algorithm for Bayesian learning from sparse, albeit complete, observations, and for deriving inferences and their confidences keeping track of the dependencies between variables when they are manipulated within the unifying computational formalism provided by probabilistic circuits. Each leaf of such circuits is labelled with a beta-distributed random variable that provides us with an elegant framework for representing uncertain probabilities. We achieve better estimation of epistemic uncertainty than state-of-the-art approaches, including highly engineered ones, while being able to handle general circuits and with just a modest increase in the computational effort compared to using point probabilities.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

An Experimentation Platform for Explainable Coalition Situational Understanding

We present an experimentation platform for coalition situational understanding research that highlights capabilities in explainable artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) and integration of symbolic and subsymbolic AI/ML approaches for event processing. The Situational Understanding Explorer (SUE) platform is designed to be lightweight, to easily facilitate experiments and demonstrations, and open. We discuss our requirements to support coalition multi-domain operations with emphasis on asset interoperability and ad hoc human-machine teaming in a dense urban terrain setting. We describe the interface functionality and give examples of SUE applied to coalition situational understanding tasks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Towards human-agent knowledge fusion (HAKF) in support of distributed coalition teams

Future coalition operations can be substantially augmented through agile teaming between human and machine agents, but in a coalition context these agents may be unfamiliar to the human users and expected to operate in a broad set of scenarios rather than being narrowly defined for particular purposes. In such a setting it is essential that the human agents can rapidly build trust in the machine agents through appropriate transparency of their behaviour, e.g., through explanations. The human agents are also able to bring their local knowledge to the team, observing the situation unfolding and deciding which key information should be communicated to the machine agents to enable them to better account for the particular environment. In this paper we describe the initial steps towards this human-agent knowledge fusion (HAKF) environment through a recap of the key requirements, and an explanation of how these can be fulfilled for an example situation. We show how HAKF has the potential to bring value to both human and machine agents working as part of a distributed coalition team in a complex event processing setting with uncertain sources.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

A Hybrid Neuro-Symbolic Approach for Complex Event Processing

Training a model to detect patterns of interrelated events that form situations of interest can be a complex problem: such situations tend to be uncommon, and only sparse data is available. We propose a hybrid neuro-symbolic architecture based on Event Calculus that can perform Complex Event Processing (CEP). It leverages both a neural network to interpret inputs and logical rules that express the pattern of the complex event. Our approach is capable of training with much fewer labelled data than a pure neural network approach, and to learn to classify individual events even when training in an end-to-end manner. We demonstrate this comparing our approach against a pure neural network approach on a dataset based on Urban Sounds 8K.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Classifiers using Generative Models

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high uncertainty for the data samples close to class boundaries or from the outside of the training distribution. These approaches use an auxiliary data set during training to represent out-of-distribution samples. However, selection or creation of such an auxiliary data set is non-trivial, especially for high dimensional data such as images. In this work we develop a novel neural network model that is able to express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to distinguish decision boundary and out-of-distribution regions of the feature space. To this end, variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks are incorporated to automatically generate out-of-distribution exemplars for training. Through extensive analysis, we demonstrate that the proposed approach provides better estimates of uncertainty for in- and out-of-distribution samples, and adversarial examples on well-known data sets against state-of-the-art approaches including recent Bayesian approaches for neural networks and anomaly detection methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

The current state of automated negotiation theory: a literature review

Automated negotiation can be an efficient method for resolving conflict and redistributing resources in a coalition setting. Automated negotiation has already seen increased usage in fields such as e-commerce and power distribution in smart girds, and recent advancements in opponent modelling have proven to deliver better outcomes. However, significant barriers to more widespread adoption remain, such as lack of predictable outcome over time and user trust. Additionally, there have been many recent advancements in the field of reasoning about uncertainty, which could help alleviate both those problems. As there is no recent survey on these two fields, and specifically not on their possible intersection we aim to provide such a survey here.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Increasing negotiation performance at the edge of the network

Automated negotiation has been used in a variety of distributed settings, such as privacy in the Internet of Things (IoT) devices and power distribution in Smart Grids. The most common protocol under which these agents negotiate is the Alternating Offers Protocol (AOP). Under this protocol, agents cannot express any additional information to each other besides a counter offer. This can lead to unnecessarily long negotiations when, for example, negotiations are impossible, risking to waste bandwidth that is a precious resource at the edge of the network. While alternative protocols exist which alleviate this problem, these solutions are too complex for low power devices, such as IoT sensors operating at the edge of the network. To improve this bottleneck, we introduce an extension to AOP called Alternating Constrained Offers Protocol (ACOP), in which agents can also express constraints to each other. This allows agents to both search the possibility space more efficiently and recognise impossible situations sooner. We empirically show that agents using ACOP can significantly reduce the number of messages a negotiation takes, independently of the strategy agents choose. In particular, we show our method significantly reduces the number of messages when an agreement is not possible. Furthermore, when an agreement is possible it reaches this agreement sooner with no negative effect on the utility.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Explainable AI for Intelligence Augmentation in Multi-Domain Operations

Central to the concept of multi-domain operations (MDO) is the utilization of an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) network consisting of overlapping systems of remote and autonomous sensors, and human intelligence, distributed among multiple partners. Realising this concept requires advancement in both artificial intelligence (AI) for improved distributed data analytics and intelligence augmentation (IA) for improved human-machine cognition. The contribution of this paper is threefold: (1) we map the coalition situational understanding (CSU) concept to MDO ISR requirements, paying particular attention to the need for assured and explainable AI to allow robust human-machine decision-making where assets are distributed among multiple partners; (2) we present illustrative vignettes for AI and IA in MDO ISR, including human-machine teaming, dense urban terrain analysis, and enhanced asset interoperability; (3) we appraise the state-of-the-art in explainable AI in relation to the vignettes with a focus on human-machine collaboration to achieve more rapid and agile coalition decision-making. The union of these three elements is intended to show the potential value of a CSU approach in the context of MDO ISR, grounded in three distinct use cases, highlighting how the need for explainability in the multi-partner coalition setting is key.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Probabilistic Logic Programming with Beta-Distributed Random Variables

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the exact value is unknown.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Automata for Infinite Argumentation Structures

The theory of abstract argumentation frameworks (afs) has, in the main, focused on finite structures, though there are many significant contexts where argumentation can be regarded as a process involving infinite objects. To address this limitation, in this paper we propose a novel approach for describing infinite afs using tools from formal language theory. In particular, the possibly infinite set of arguments is specified through the language recognized by a deterministic finite automaton while a suitable formalism, called attack expression, is introduced to describe the relation of attack between arguments. The proposed approach is shown to satisfy some desirable properties which can not be achieved through other "naive" uses of formal languages. In particular, the approach is shown to be expressive enough to capture (besides any arbitrary finite structure) a large variety of infinite afs including two major examples from previous literature and two sample cases from the domains of multi-agent negotiation and ambient intelligence. On the computational side, we show that several decision and construction problems which are known to be polynomial time solvable in finite afs are decidable in the context of the proposed formalism and we provide the relevant algorithms. Moreover we obtain additional results concerning the case of finitary afs.

cs.AI↗