arXiv subjects

Federico Ciliberto

Publications and source records attributed to Federico Ciliberto.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Bridging Quasi-Experimental and Structural Approaches for Robust Evaluation of US Airline Mergers

We bridge quasi-experimental and structural approaches for robust merger evaluation. First, we show that the difference-in-differences (DiD) equation is the "reduced form" of a structural model, where demand and cost parameters identify price effects of mergers even when the DiD approach faces identification challenges. Second, we propose a $\textit{synthetic GMM}$ approach by applying synthetic DiD weights to structural moment conditions to improve estimates when only a few treated markets are available. Applying this methodology to three airline mergers, we find modest efficiency gains entirely offset by increased coordination. The synthetic GMM refinement sharpens findings, uncovering anti-competitive effects standard approaches miss.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Common Subcontracting and Airline Prices

In the US airline industry, independent regional airlines fly passengers on behalf of several national airlines across different markets, giving rise to $\textit{common subcontracting}$. On the one hand, we find that subcontracting is associated with lower prices, consistent with the notion that regional airlines tend to fly passengers at lower costs than major airlines. On the other hand, we find that $\textit{common}$ subcontracting is associated with higher prices. These two countervailing effects suggest that the growth of regional airlines can have anticompetitive implications for the industry.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Valuing Pharmaceutical Drug Innovations

We propose a methodology to estimate the market value of pharmaceutical drugs. Our approach combines the event study method with a discounted cash flow model that infers drug values from stock market responses to drug development announcements. We estimate the average value of a drug developed by small firms (those below the 95th percentile of market capitalization) to be \$2.16 billion. At the preclinical stage, the risk-adjusted and present discounted average net value of drugs is \$50 million. Leveraging these estimates, we also determine the expected drug development cost at the start of the discovery stage to be \$38 million. We estimate values and costs for several therapeutic areas (e.g., neoplasm, infections) and explore applying these estimates to design policies that support drug development through drug buyouts and targeted preclinical interventions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Coordinated Capacity Reductions and Public Communication in the Airline Industry

We investigate the allegation that legacy U.S. airlines communicated via earnings calls to coordinate with other legacy airlines in offering fewer seats on competitive routes. To this end, we first use text analytics to build a novel dataset on communication among airlines about their capacity choices. Estimates from our preferred specification show that the number of offered seats is 2% lower when all legacy airlines in a market discuss the concept of "capacity discipline." We verify that this reduction materializes only when legacy airlines communicate concurrently, and that it cannot be explained by other possibilities, including that airlines are simply announcing to investors their unilateral plans to reduce capacity, and then following through on those announcements.

econ.GN↗