arXiv subjects

Fei Xiao

Publications and source records attributed to Fei Xiao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ReasonCast: Agentic Demand Forecasting with Selective Semantic Reasoning

Demand forecasting increasingly requires combining two complementary sources of information: historical sales reveal recurring numerical dynamics, while future promotions, holidays, price changes, and platform interventions provide forward-looking knowledge. Existing text-enhanced forecasting methods often encode such context into generic representations and fuse it uniformly with time-series features, without explicitly distinguishing which semantic effects are forecast-relevant or how they should modify future dynamics. We introduce ReasonCast, a structured semantic intervention framework that translates event knowledge into forecast-specific operations. An agent examines the event context, the no-text forecast, and its uncertainty to determine whether textual reasoning is needed. Rather than injecting free-form text, ReasonCast represents event knowledge through structured fields describing event relevance, demand direction, temporal shape, amplitude, and peak intensity. These fields interact selectively with temporal components of a time-series foundation model. An additive path corrects local trends and temporal shapes, while a multiplicative path captures event-driven level shifts. ReasonCast introduces a forecast-grounded post-training curriculum. Schema SFT establishes semantic fields; semantic-field RL calibrates direction, shape, amplitude, and peak judgments; and forecast-utility RL evaluates semantic interventions through a frozen forecaster, aligning reasoning outputs with marginal forecast improvement. ReasonCast lowers WMAPE by 3.29, 1.25, and 0.47 percentage points on holiday-sensitive categories, mega-sale-sensitive categories, and M5 event windows, respectively. On stable-sales periods, indiscriminate semantic intervention increases WMAPE by 1.68 percentage points, whereas suppressing unnecessary intervention preserves the numerical backbone.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

AIGP: An LLM-Based Framework for Long-Term Value Alignment in E-Commerce Pricing

Traditional dynamic pricing models in large-scale e-commerce suffer from limited interpretability, poor utilization of unstructured information, and misalignment with long-term business objectives such as cumulative Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), Return on Investment (ROI) and milestone achievement. We propose AIGP, a novel framework that leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) prompted with domain knowledge, structured data and textual context to make interpretable, knowledge-aware pricing decisions. For efficient deployment while maintaining high-quality outputs, we employ supervised fine-tuning for knowledge distillation. Central to AIGP is the Long-Term Value Estimator (LTVE), trained via offline reinforcement learning on historical data, which serves as a reward model to score candidate pricing actions and select preference pairs for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), thereby aligning the pricing policy with long-term business objectives. Extensive offline evaluations and large-scale online A/B tests on Tao Factory demonstrate that AIGP achieves significant improvements: +13.21% in GMV, +7.59% in ROI, and +8.20% in milestone achievement rate over 14 days compared to the production baseline, while simultaneously providing interpretable and transparent pricing rationales.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Representation Forcing for Bottleneck-Free Unified Multimodal Models

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) aim to handle perception and generation in a single model. Yet existing UMMs still rely on a frozen, separately pretrained VAE for image generation, imposing a structural bottleneck. Naively removing it introduces a quality gap, as the model must learn both high-level structure and low-level details from raw pixels. In this paper, we propose Representation Forcing (RF), a technique that closes this gap by making representation prediction a native capability of the model. Concretely, RF forces the decoder to autoregressively predict visual representations as intermediate tokens before pixels; these tokens then stay in context to guide pixel diffusion within the same backbone. By turning representations from perception outputs into generation targets, RF eliminates the need for any external generative latent space. We find that RF benefits both understanding and generation. On image generation, our pixel-space model with RF matches state-of-the-art VAE-based unified models. On image understanding, pixel-space RF generally outperforms its VAE-based variant. Together, these results offer an effective step toward end-to-end, bottleneck-free UMMs.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Generative Auto-Bidding with Unified Modeling and Exploration

Automated bidding is central to modern digital advertising. Early rule-based methods lacked adaptability, while subsequent Reinforcement Learning approaches modeled bidding as a Markov Decision Process but struggled with long-term dependencies. Recent generative models show promise, yet they lack explicit mechanisms to balance exploration and safety, relying solely on action perturbations or trajectory guidance without a safety fallback. This results in inefficient exploration and elevated financial risk for advertising platforms. To address this gap, we propose GUIDE (Generative Auto-Bidding with Unified Modeling and Exploration), a framework that synergistically integrates directed exploration with a safe fallback mechanism. GUIDE employs a Decision Transformer (DT) to jointly model historical bidding actions and environmental state transitions. A Q-value module guides the DT's exploration via regularization constraints, while an Inverse Dynamics Module (IDM) leverages DT-predicted future states to infer robust, behaviorally consistent actions as a safe policy fallback. The Q-value module then adaptively selects the final action between these two options, balancing exploration and safety. Together, these components form an integrated "explore-safeguard-select" pipeline that unifies efficiency and safety. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets, in simulated auction environments, and through large-scale online deployment on Taobao, a leading Chinese advertising platform. Results show GUIDE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across all scenarios. In real-world deployment, GUIDE achieves notable gains: +4.10% ad GMV, +1.40% ad clicks, +1.66% ad cost, and +3.52% ad ROI, demonstrating its effectiveness and strong industrial applicability.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Towards Sustainable Growth: A Multi-Value-Aware Retrieval Framework for E-Commerce Search

New item growth is critical for maintaining a healthy ecosystem in large-scale e-commerce platforms. However, existing systems tend to prioritize presenting users with already popular items, a phenomenon often referred to as the "Matthew effect". In the context of search retrieval, current cold-start models suffer from the misalignment between training objectives and online business metrics, and they lack effective mechanisms to measure an item's growth potential. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Value-Aware retrieval framework tailored for e-commerce search, designed to better align with the cascaded online values across different stages of the search system while balancing immediate conversion and long-term item growth. Our framework GrowthGR consists of two key components: an Item Long-term Transaction Value Prediction (ItemLTV) module and a Multi-Value-Aware Generative Retrieval (MultiGR) module. First, in the ItemLTV module, we employ counterfactual inference to quantify the long-term value increment attributable to a single user interaction. Second, in the MultiGR module, building upon a semantic-ID-based generative retrieval architecture, we leverage structured samples with the search cascade signals and adopt a Multi-Value-Aware Policy Optimization (MoPO) training paradigm to align with multi-stage online values, while explicitly balancing short-term transactional value and long-term growth potential estimated by ItemLTV. We successfully deployed GrowthGR on Taobao's production platform, achieving a substantial 5.3% lift in new item GMV while delivering a non-trivial 0.3% gain in overall search GMV. Extensive online analysis and A/B testing demonstrate its positive impact on the overall ecosystem value.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

RASC: Region-Aware Self-Calibration for Dense 2D Sensor Arrays

BJT-based 2D temperature-sensor arrays are factory-calibrated to +/-0.1 degC, but post-deployment thermal and mechanical stresses drift their per-sensor gain-offset parameters by an order of magnitude, and in-lab recalibration is impractical. We present RASC (Region-Aware Self-Calibration), a five-stage algorithm that decomposes the global ill-posed problem into local cluster-level problems, runs robust alternating estimation (trimmed-mean field reconstruction + Huber IRLS) inside each cluster, and reconciles overlapping estimates by linear consensus on the cluster-overlap graph with provable exponential convergence. On 7,632 frames from a deployed 16x16 array exhibiting ~5x factory-spec non-uniformity, RASC cuts the locally-non-smooth fixed-pattern residual by 71+/-5% (10-fold CV), restoring +/-0.1 degC accuracy while perturbing the calibrated field by only 0.041 degC RMSE; reduction concentrates at the edges (78% vs 55% interior). In simulations on 8x8 to 32x32 arrays, RASC matches an oracle centralized EKF within 0.10 degC with ~4x lower bandwidth.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

Context Unrolling in Omni Models

We present Omni, a unified multimodal model natively trained on diverse modalities, including text, images, videos, 3D geometry, and hidden representations. We find that such training enables Context Unrolling, where the model explicitly reasons across multiple modal representations before producing predictions. This process enables the model to aggregate complementary information across heterogeneous modalities, facilitating a more faithful approximation of the shared multimodal knowledge manifold and improving downstream reasoning fidelity. As a result, Omni achieves strong performance on both multimodal generation and understanding benchmarks, while demonstrating advanced multimodal reasoning capabilities, including in-context generation of text, image, video, and 3D geometry.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Impact of the $^5$Li resonance in $\alpha$-$p$ elastic scattering on precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters

Precision measurements of four neutrino oscillation parameters, $\theta_{12}$, $\theta_{13}$, $\Delta m^2_{21}$, and |$\Delta m^2_{31}$|, face significant interference from a previously overlooked correlated background. Recent findings from the SNO+ and JUNO experiments reveal that cascade decays of $^{214}$Bi-$^{214}$Po in liquid scintillator detectors can mimic inverse beta decay signals from reactor and geoneutrinos, with a misidentification probability on the order of $10^{-4}$ when hydrogen neutron capture is used, a rate ten times higher than Geant4 simulations predicted. This work identifies the $^5$Li resonance in $\alpha$-$p$ elastic scattering as the underlying cause. For alpha energies above 5~MeV, the cross section is hundreds of times larger than that of Rutherford scattering. After correctly incorporating the differential cross section into Geant4, the misidentification probability is recalculated as 1.9$\times$10$^{-4}$. The simulated shape of the long tail in the alpha deposited energy also differs from the extrapolation models currently used by SNO+ and JUNO. These results will assist both experiments in more accurately estimating this novel background, thereby refining measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and the geoneutrino flux. Additionally, the study implies an overlooked background with a rate of 0.5 events per detector per day in the Daya Bay $\theta_{13}$ analysis using hydrogen neutron capture, leading to an increase of $\sin^22\theta_{13}$ by approximately 0.012. Consequently, the Particle Data Group's reported $\sin^2\theta_{13}$ value shall increase by about 0.006~(1$\sigma$).

nucl-ex↗

arXiv2025

Unbiased Platform-Level Causal Estimation for Search Systems: A Competitive Isolation PSM-DID Framework

Evaluating platform-level interventions in search-based two-sided marketplaces is fundamentally challenged by systemic effects such as spillovers and network interference. While widely used for causal inference, the PSM (Propensity Score Matching) - DID (Difference-in-Differences) framework remains susceptible to selection bias and cross-unit interference from unaccounted spillovers. In this paper, we introduced Competitive Isolation PSM-DID, a novel causal framework that integrates propensity score matching with competitive isolation to enable platform-level effect measurement (e.g., order volume, GMV) instead of item-level metrics in search systems. Our approach provides theoretically guaranteed unbiased estimation under mutual exclusion conditions, with an open dataset released to support reproducible research on marketplace interference (github.com/xxxx). Extensive experiments demonstrate significant reductions in interference effects and estimation variance compared to baseline methods. Successful deployment in a large-scale marketplace confirms the framework's practical utility for platform-level causal inference.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

FARMER: Flow AutoRegressive Transformer over Pixels

Directly modeling the explicit likelihood of the raw data distribution is key topic in the machine learning area, which achieves the scaling successes in Large Language Models by autoregressive modeling. However, continuous AR modeling over visual pixel data suffer from extremely long sequences and high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, we present FARMER, a novel end-to-end generative framework that unifies Normalizing Flows (NF) and Autoregressive (AR) models for tractable likelihood estimation and high-quality image synthesis directly from raw pixels. FARMER employs an invertible autoregressive flow to transform images into latent sequences, whose distribution is modeled implicitly by an autoregressive model. To address the redundancy and complexity in pixel-level modeling, we propose a self-supervised dimension reduction scheme that partitions NF latent channels into informative and redundant groups, enabling more effective and efficient AR modeling. Furthermore, we design a one-step distillation scheme to significantly accelerate inference speed and introduce a resampling-based classifier-free guidance algorithm to boost image generation quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FARMER achieves competitive performance compared to existing pixel-based generative models while providing exact likelihoods and scalable training.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Seedance 1.0: Exploring the Boundaries of Video Generation Models

Notable breakthroughs in diffusion modeling have propelled rapid improvements in video generation, yet current foundational model still face critical challenges in simultaneously balancing prompt following, motion plausibility, and visual quality. In this report, we introduce Seedance 1.0, a high-performance and inference-efficient video foundation generation model that integrates several core technical improvements: (i) multi-source data curation augmented with precision and meaningful video captioning, enabling comprehensive learning across diverse scenarios; (ii) an efficient architecture design with proposed training paradigm, which allows for natively supporting multi-shot generation and jointly learning of both text-to-video and image-to-video tasks. (iii) carefully-optimized post-training approaches leveraging fine-grained supervised fine-tuning, and video-specific RLHF with multi-dimensional reward mechanisms for comprehensive performance improvements; (iv) excellent model acceleration achieving ~10x inference speedup through multi-stage distillation strategies and system-level optimizations. Seedance 1.0 can generate a 5-second video at 1080p resolution only with 41.4 seconds (NVIDIA-L20). Compared to state-of-the-art video generation models, Seedance 1.0 stands out with high-quality and fast video generation having superior spatiotemporal fluidity with structural stability, precise instruction adherence in complex multi-subject contexts, native multi-shot narrative coherence with consistent subject representation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Semiparametric marginal promotion time cure model for clustered survival data

Modeling clustered/correlated failure time data has been becoming increasingly important in clinical trials and epidemiology studies. In this paper, we consider a semiparametric marginal promotion time cure model for clustered right-censored survival data with a cure fraction. We propose two estimation methods based on the generalized estimating equations and the quadratic inference functions and prove that the regression estimates from the two proposed methods are consistent and asymptotic normal and that the estimates from the quadratic inference functions are optimal. The simulation study shows that the estimates from both methods are more efficient than those from the existing method no matter whether the correlation structure is correctly specified. The estimates based on the quadratic inference functions achieve higher efficiency compared with those based on the generalized estimating equations under the same working correlation structure. An application of the proposed methods is demonstrated with periodontal disease data and new findings are revealed in the analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Seaweed-7B: Cost-Effective Training of Video Generation Foundation Model

This technical report presents a cost-efficient strategy for training a video generation foundation model. We present a mid-sized research model with approximately 7 billion parameters (7B) called Seaweed-7B trained from scratch using 665,000 H100 GPU hours. Despite being trained with moderate computational resources, Seaweed-7B demonstrates highly competitive performance compared to contemporary video generation models of much larger size. Design choices are especially crucial in a resource-constrained setting. This technical report highlights the key design decisions that enhance the performance of the medium-sized diffusion model. Empirically, we make two observations: (1) Seaweed-7B achieves performance comparable to, or even surpasses, larger models trained on substantially greater GPU resources, and (2) our model, which exhibits strong generalization ability, can be effectively adapted across a wide range of downstream applications either by lightweight fine-tuning or continue training. See the project page at https://seaweed.video/

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

SeedVR: Seeding Infinity in Diffusion Transformer Towards Generic Video Restoration

Video restoration poses non-trivial challenges in maintaining fidelity while recovering temporally consistent details from unknown degradations in the wild. Despite recent advances in diffusion-based restoration, these methods often face limitations in generation capability and sampling efficiency. In this work, we present SeedVR, a diffusion transformer designed to handle real-world video restoration with arbitrary length and resolution. The core design of SeedVR lies in the shifted window attention that facilitates effective restoration on long video sequences. SeedVR further supports variable-sized windows near the boundary of both spatial and temporal dimensions, overcoming the resolution constraints of traditional window attention. Equipped with contemporary practices, including causal video autoencoder, mixed image and video training, and progressive training, SeedVR achieves highly-competitive performance on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks, as well as AI-generated videos. Extensive experiments demonstrate SeedVR's superiority over existing methods for generic video restoration.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

VecAug: Unveiling Camouflaged Frauds with Cohort Augmentation for Enhanced Detection

Fraud detection presents a challenging task characterized by ever-evolving fraud patterns and scarce labeled data. Existing methods predominantly rely on graph-based or sequence-based approaches. While graph-based approaches connect users through shared entities to capture structural information, they remain vulnerable to fraudsters who can disrupt or manipulate these connections. In contrast, sequence-based approaches analyze users' behavioral patterns, offering robustness against tampering but overlooking the interactions between similar users. Inspired by cohort analysis in retention and healthcare, this paper introduces VecAug, a novel cohort-augmented learning framework that addresses these challenges by enhancing the representation learning of target users with personalized cohort information. To this end, we first propose a vector burn-in technique for automatic cohort identification, which retrieves a task-specific cohort for each target user. Then, to fully exploit the cohort information, we introduce an attentive cohort aggregation technique for augmenting target user representations. To improve the robustness of such cohort augmentation, we also propose a novel label-aware cohort neighbor separation mechanism to distance negative cohort neighbors and calibrate the aggregated cohort information. By integrating this cohort information with target user representations, VecAug enhances the modeling capacity and generalization capabilities of the model to be augmented. Our framework is flexible and can be seamlessly integrated with existing fraud detection models. We deploy our framework on e-commerce platforms and evaluate it on three fraud detection datasets, and results show that VecAug improves the detection performance of base models by up to 2.48\% in AUC and 22.5\% in R@P$_{0.9}$, outperforming state-of-the-art methods significantly.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Unveiling the Tapestry of Consistency in Large Vision-Language Models

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have recently achieved rapid progress, exhibiting great perception and reasoning abilities concerning visual information. However, when faced with prompts in different sizes of solution spaces, LVLMs fail to always give consistent answers regarding the same knowledge point. This inconsistency of answers between different solution spaces is prevalent in LVLMs and erodes trust. To this end, we provide a multi-modal benchmark ConBench, to intuitively analyze how LVLMs perform when the solution space of a prompt revolves around a knowledge point. Based on the ConBench tool, we are the first to reveal the tapestry and get the following findings: (1) In the discriminate realm, the larger the solution space of the prompt, the lower the accuracy of the answers. (2) Establish the relationship between the discriminative and generative realms: the accuracy of the discriminative question type exhibits a strong positive correlation with its Consistency with the caption. (3) Compared to open-source models, closed-source models exhibit a pronounced bias advantage in terms of Consistency. Eventually, we ameliorate the consistency of LVLMs by trigger-based diagnostic refinement, indirectly improving the performance of their caption. We hope this paper will accelerate the research community in better evaluating their models and encourage future advancements in the consistency domain. The project is available at https://github.com/foundation-multimodal-models/ConBench.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

SSRESF: Sensitivity-aware Single-particle Radiation Effects Simulation Framework in SoC Platforms based on SVM Algorithm

The ever-expanding scale of integrated circuits has brought about a significant rise in the design risks associated with radiation-resistant integrated circuit chips. Traditional single-particle experimental methods, with their iterative design approach, are increasingly ill-suited for the challenges posed by large-scale integrated circuits. In response, this article introduces a novel sensitivity-aware single-particle radiation effects simulation framework tailored for System-on-Chip platforms. Based on SVM algorithm we have implemented fast finding and classification of sensitive circuit nodes. Additionally, the methodology automates soft error analysis across the entire software stack. The study includes practical experiments focusing on RISC-V architecture, encompassing core components, buses, and memory systems. It culminates in the establishment of databases for Single Event Upsets (SEU) and Single Event Transients (SET), showcasing the practical efficacy of the proposed methodology in addressing radiation-induced challenges at the scale of contemporary integrated circuits. Experimental results have shown up to 12.78X speed-up on the basis of achieving 94.58% accuracy.

cs.AR↗

arXiv2023

Over-The-Air Adversarial Attacks on Deep Learning Wi-Fi Fingerprinting

Empowered by deep neural networks (DNNs), Wi-Fi fingerprinting has recently achieved astonishing localization performance to facilitate many security-critical applications in wireless networks, but it is inevitably exposed to adversarial attacks, where subtle perturbations can mislead DNNs to wrong predictions. Such vulnerability provides new security breaches to malicious devices for hampering wireless network security, such as malfunctioning geofencing or asset management. The prior adversarial attack on localization DNNs uses additive perturbations on channel state information (CSI) measurements, which is impractical in Wi-Fi transmissions. To transcend this limitation, this paper presents FooLoc, which fools Wi-Fi CSI fingerprinting DNNs over the realistic wireless channel between the attacker and the victim access point (AP). We observe that though uplink CSIs are unknown to the attacker, the accessible downlink CSIs could be their reasonable substitutes at the same spot. We thoroughly investigate the multiplicative and repetitive properties of over-the-air perturbations and devise an efficient optimization problem to generate imperceptible yet robust adversarial perturbations. We implement FooLoc using commercial Wi-Fi APs and Wireless Open-Access Research Platform (WARP) v3 boards in offline and online experiments, respectively. The experimental results show that FooLoc achieves overall attack success rates of about 70% in targeted attacks and of above 90% in untargeted attacks with small perturbation-to-signal ratios of about -18dB.

cs.CR↗