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Felipe Murgas

Publications and source records attributed to Felipe Murgas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Mass constraints for the K2-223 system planets: An ultra-short-period sub-Earth, a short-period super-Earth, and a tentative long-period giant planet

We present mass constraints of two short-period, terrestrial-sized planets transiting K2-223, based on high-precision radial velocity measurements from HARPS-N and ESPRESSO, as well as a tentative indication of an outer, Jupiter-like planet orbiting the G1V dwarf K2-223. With a radius of $R_\mathrm{b}=0.79\pm0.10$ $\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$ and 3-$\sigma$ upper mass limit $M_\mathrm{b}<2.8$ $\mathrm{M_{\oplus}}$, K2-223 b belongs to the small group of known sub-Earth planets and is currently the smallest known ultra-short-period (USP) planet ($P_\mathrm{b}\approx$ 0.5 day) transiting a solar-type star. With a radius of $R_\mathrm{c}=1.41\pm0.15$ $\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$, a mass of $M_\mathrm{c}=4.2\pm1.3$ $\mathrm{M_{\oplus}}$ and a density of $\rho_\mathrm{c}=8.3\pm3.7$ $\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}}$, K2-223 c is a short-period ($P_\mathrm{c}\approx$ 4.5 days) super-Earth. Thanks to almost six and a half years of radial velocity monitoring of K2-223 with the HARPS-N spectrograph, we identified a tentative giant planet with an orbital period of $P_\mathrm{d}=4.53^{+0.32}_{-0.34}$ $\mathrm{years}$ and a minimum mass of $1.29^{+0.23}_{-0.17}$ $\mathrm{M_{\rm Jup}}$. Two close-in small planets accompanied by a distant candidate Jupiter-like companion would make K2-223 a system with a rare architecture, valuable for testing scenarios of planetary formation and evolution. The extreme proximity of K2-223 b to the parent star necessitates the consideration of relativistic and tidal perturbations to Newtonian gravity. We discuss the timescales and amplitudes of these effects in the context of the RV model and dynamical simulations of the K2-223 multiple-planet system. We also present a parametrisation of the planets with directly measured masses, radii, and bulk densities in terms of the orbital period normalised by the Roche period, providing an alternative representation in the context of the Neptune desert.

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arXiv2026

Conspicuous Gas, Cryptic Dust: Spectroscopy and Chromaticity of Complex Periodic Variables

Complex periodic variables (CPVs) are young low-mass stars whose light curves show periodic dips indicative of transiting corotating material. The origin and composition of this material are unclear. Here we present new optical and near-infrared spectroscopy and photometry of four CPVs from Magellan, Keck, Hale, MuSCAT1, MuSCAT2, Tierras, KeplerCam, and TESS. The spectra imply that CPVs host magnetically bound circumstellar plasma clumps, on the basis of sinusoidal-in-time Balmer emission out of transit, and Balmer dimming during transit. Yet large night-to-night changes in circumstellar hydrogen emissivity occur without clear changes in light curve morphology, suggesting that the sharp flux dips are caused not by circumstellar plasma but by dust. Optical chromaticities (depth proportional to $\lambda^{-\beta}$, with $\beta$ = 0.79 $\pm$ 0.16) support this, but the power law breaks in the near-infrared, where a single power law under-predicts the depths observed at 2.1 microns. We therefore favor dips caused by dusty plasma clumps with opaque cores and optically thin halos, though we cannot rule out models in which the dust properties vary per-star or per-epoch. Observations at wavelengths greater than 2 microns and less than 0.4 microns would test this interpretation and clarify the dust's origin.

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arXiv2026

A Pair of Warm Saturn-mass Planets near the 2:1 Mean Motion Resonance around TOI-3850

Warm Jupiters, with orbital periods of $10$--$200~\rm{days}$ and radii exceeding $8~R_{\oplus}$, are a relatively understudied class of exoplanets occupying the parameter space between hot Jupiters and more widely separated, colder Jupiter analogs. In this work, we report the detection of a multi-planet warm Jupiter system around TOI-3850 (TIC-143008050), a moderately active, near-solar metallicity G0 dwarf star observed by TESS in Sectors 15, 21, 41, 48 and 75. Initially, a single candidate planet was discovered by TESS, displaying transit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of $\sim 1~\rm hr$ and a super-period of $513~\rm days$. Through a combination of transit photometry, radial velocity observations with MAROON-X, and TTV modeling, we identify two planets: TOI-3850 b $(P_b=14.484\pm0.002~\mathrm{days},~ M_b =112\pm20~M_{\oplus},~e_b = 0.018\pm0.008, R_b = 12.07\pm0.09~R_{\oplus}, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=841\pm10~\rm{K})$, a transiting warm Jupiter, and TOI-3850 c $(P_c=29.85\pm0.01~\mathrm{days},~ M_c =90\pm15~M_{\oplus},~e_c < 0.015, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=661\pm7~\rm{K})$, a non-transiting, Saturn-mass companion. The two planets lie wide of the 2:1 mean motion resonance $(P_c/P_b \approx 2.06)$, consistent with a formation history involving disk-driven migration. $N$-body integrations indicate that TOI-3850 c may begin to transit on decadal timescales, while TOI-3850 b remains a promising target for follow-up atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2026

Stellar Multiplicity of M Dwarfs with Short-period Giant Planets, and the Characterization of TOI-5628Ab

Binary stars are ubiquitous, yet it remains unclear how wide-orbit stellar companions influence the formation of hot Jupiters, particularly around M dwarfs. Here, we first report the discovery of TOI-5628Ab, a giant planet transiting a mid-type M dwarf ($M_\ast=0.36\pm0.02\ M_\odot$) every 4.34 days, accompanied by an associated white dwarf TOI-5628B ($M_{\rm WD}=0.59\pm0.16\ M_\odot$) at a projected distance of about 2,500 AU. Using TESS, ground-based photometry and SPIRou RVs, we constrain the planet radius to $0.74\pm0.04\ R_J$ and mass to $0.09\pm0.04\ M_J$, with a $3\sigma$ upper limit of $0.22\ M_J$. Building on this system, we further conduct a homogeneous systematic search for co-moving stellar companions with projected semi-major axis between 100 and 10,000 AU around all M dwarfs with confirmed giant planets with periods smaller than 10 days and radii larger than 0.7 $R_J$, as well as a group of field M stars with stellar properties similar to the planet sample, based on the stellar kinematics from Gaia DR3. We measure a stellar multiplicity of $34.2\pm9.5\%$ for M dwarfs hosting short-period giant planets, which is substantially higher than the fraction of $5.3\pm3.7\%$ for the field M stars by approximately a factor of 6. Our results suggest that wide-orbit stellar companions tend to promote the formation of short-period giant planets around M stars with masses $0.21 \leq M_\ast\leq 0.64\ M_\odot$, and high-eccentricity migration may play an important role in producing such systems.

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arXiv2026

TOI-6884b: A low-mass brown dwarf transiting a slightly evolved star

We report the discovery of a low-mass transiting brown dwarf orbiting TOI-6884 (TIC~156514476, $T_{\rm mag}=11.4$) from NASA's \textit{Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite} (\textit{TESS}) mission. The \textit{TESS} light curves initially suggested an orbital period of $\sim$14.42~days; however, our high-precision ground-based radial velocity measurements and multi-epoch time-series photometry reveal this to be a harmonic alias. We determine the true orbital period to be $4.808264^{+0.000015}_{-0.000014}$~days and confirm the substellar nature of the companion. TOI-6884b has a mass of $26.32^{+0.98}_{-0.93}\,M_{\mathrm{J}}$, a radius of $0.927^{+0.51}_{-0.52}\,R_{\mathrm{J}}$, and resides on a nearly circular orbit ($e=0.067^{+0.010}_{-0.012}$). Its host star is a late F-type slightly evolved star with $M_\star = 1.410^{+0.075}_{-0.069}\,M_\odot$,\msun, $R_\star = 1.840^{+0.072}_{-0.073}\,R_\odot$, $\log{g} = 4.057^{+0.045}_{-0.039}$, $[{\rm Fe/H}] = 0.094^{+0.073}_{-0.068}$~dex, and $T_{\rm eff}=6330^{+180}_{-160}$,\mathrm{K}$. TOI-6884b is a key addition to the small population of well-characterized transiting brown dwarfs orbiting host stars that have evolved off the main sequence. The detection of such systems will contribute to our understanding of the dynamical histories and structural evolution of short-period substellar companions around evolved stars.

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arXiv2026

TOI-2147 b and TOI-6019 b: Two eccentric warm Jupiters detected and characterized with TESS and MaHPS

The population of Jupiter-sized exoplanets with orbital periods between 10 and 200 days (WJs) exhibits a broad range of orbital eccentricities and system architectures, suggesting a diversity of formation and migration pathways. In this work, we report the detection and characterization of two new eccentric WJs, TOI-2147 b and TOI-6019 b, initially identified as planet candidates by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We combined TESS photometry with ground-based follow-up observations, including multiband photometry from LCOGT and MuSCAT2, high-angular-resolution speckle imaging, and high-precision radial velocity measurements from the high-resolution Manfred Hirt Planet Finder Spectrograph (MaHPS). Using these data, we were able to confirm the planetary nature of both candidates. TOI-2147 b has a radius of $10.5 \pm 0.3\,\mathrm{R}_\oplus$ and a mass of $116 \pm 22\,\mathrm{M}_\oplus$. It orbits its slightly metal-poor ($\mathrm{[Fe/H]} = -0.29^{+0.07}_{-0.08}$) G-type host star on an eccentric orbit ($e = 0.29 \pm 0.07$) with a period of 26.2 days. TOI-6019 b has a radius of $12.3 \pm 0.3\,\mathrm{R}_\oplus$ and a mass of $149 \pm 15\,\mathrm{M}_\oplus$. It orbits a slightly evolved, solar-metallicity G-type sub-giant with a period of 14.5 days on a significantly eccentric orbit ($e = 0.48^{+0.05}_{-0.04}$). Both planets have bulk densities below that of Jupiter, indicating mildly inflated radii, with interior structure modeling using GASTLI. This suggests that tidal heating from the nonzero eccentricities likely contributes to this inflation and disfavors large atmospheric metal enrichment. No significant signals from additional companions were detected in the radial velocity time series or transit timing variations. Together with the elevated eccentricities, this is consistent with a high-eccentricity migration origin for both systems.

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arXiv2026

Stellar Obliquities of Young Systems, Atmospheres Undergoing Contraction and Escape (SOYSAUCE) II: a 135 Myr planet on an aligned orbit with transit timing variations

Young planets (<1 Gyr) provide opportunities to directly probe planet formation and evolution processes in action. However, due to heightened stellar activity, there is a lack of known transiting planets in adolescence (~100-500 Myr). Here we present the validation of TIC 150070085 b, a 3.6 R_E planet on a 10.47 day orbit, and report the candidate TIC 150070085 c, a 3.0 R_E planet on a 15.90 day orbit. While we are unable to validate the second signal, the proximity to mean motion resonance (3:2) and transit timing variations observed in the transits of TIC 150070085 b strongly suggest the signal is planetary. We confirm the host star as a member of Alessi 84 and combine the group's CMD, rotation, and variability properties to update the age to 135 +/- 10 Myr. We additionally use MAROON-X to observe the Rossiter-McLaughlin signal of TIC 150070085 b and measure the sky projected obliquity angle ($\lambda$). We find TIC 150070085 b is consistent with a near-aligned orbit with its host star (|$\lambda$| = 18 +/- 12$^\circ$), in line with similarly aged transiting planets with measured $\lambda$ values. Continued discovery and characterization of planets in this age regime are vital to link planetary infancy (<50 Myr) and maturity (>1 Gyr).

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arXiv2026

The mass of TOI-1883 b: A low density super-Neptune in the ridge regime transiting an early-M dwarf

Recent large-scale transit surveys conducted by space telescopes such as Kepler and TESS have revealed a vast number of exoplanets, uncovering the diversity of their population. One of the remarkable findings is the presence of a deficiency region in the period-radius distribution of short-period (< 10 days) Neptune-sized planets (4-8 Earth radii). This region is classified into the Neptune desert (< 3.2 days), the ridge (3.2-5.7 days), and the savanna (> 5.7 days) based on orbital period, each likely reflecting distinct evolutionary pathways. In this study, we used the InfraRed Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru Telescope to determine the mass of the super-Neptune TOI-1883 b, which resides in the ridge region (P ~ 4.51 days) orbiting an M dwarf. We measured a planetary mass of Mp = 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 Earth masses and a mean density of 0.4 +0.3/-0.2 g cm^-3, with 3-sigma upper limits of 34.1 Earth masses, and 5-sigma upper limits of 47.7 Earth masses. These results suggest that TOI-1883 b is likely a low density super-Neptune. We also find that the boundary of the Neptune desert defined by planets orbiting FGK-type stars exhibits a similar distribution for planets around M-type stars. According to the population-based argument of Bourrier et al. (2025), this suggests that TOI-1883 b may have undergone disk-driven migration to reach its current orbit and experienced early atmospheric photoevaporation driven by strong stellar XUV irradiation. The derived planetary mass is comparable to or exceeds the conventional critical core mass. We suggest that the high metallicity of the host star ([Fe/H] = 0.32 +/- 0.18) may have suppressed the onset of runaway gas accretion. Furthermore, TOI-1883 b has a high Transmission Spectroscopy Metric (TSM > 140), making it an excellent target for future atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy.

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arXiv2026

Optical transmission spectrum of HAT-P-47b: evidence for aerosols and tentative TiO absorption

Transmission spectroscopy enables the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres by probing absorption features in their terminator regions. In the optical, it is particularly sensitive to metal oxides and atomic species that can strongly influence atmospheric energy balance and thermal structure. We aim to investigate the atmospheric properties of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-47b through optical transmission spectroscopy. Thirteen TESS transits were analyzed to refine the planetary ephemeris and system parameters. Two ground-based transits were observed with LBT/MODS and GTC/OSIRIS+. Chromatic transit light curves were modeled to derive instrument-specific transmission spectra and multiple Bayesian spectral retrievals were performed to characterize the atmospheric properties. The MODS transmission spectrum provides moderate Bayesian evidence ($\Delta\ln\mathcal{Z}=2.68$) for TiO absorption, whereas the OSIRIS+ spectrum does not yield statistically significant evidence for any specific opacity source. Both datasets exhibit a wavelength-dependent slope indicative of enhanced aerosol scattering. The MODS and OSIRIS+ joint free-chemistry retrieval, dominated by the higher signal-to-noise MODS data, yields moderate evidence ($\Delta\ln\mathcal{Z}=3.44$) for TiO with a log mass fraction of $-6.86^{+0.64}_{-0.63}$ dex. The same model indicates an aerosol contribution to the optical scattering opacity approximately $5000\times$ larger than pure H$_2$ Rayleigh scattering. HAT-P-47b appears to host a cloudy atmosphere with evidence for aerosols and tentative evidence for TiO absorption. Future high-precision observations will be essential to confirm the presence of TiO and further characterize its atmospheric structure.

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arXiv2026

Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System

Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.

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arXiv2026

TOI-7169 b: A Hot Jupiter Transiting a Metal-Poor Star

Most known planets are found around metal-rich host stars, which has made it difficult to determine whether a lower metallicity limit for planet formation exists and how the properties of planets born in low-metallicity environments may differ from those with metal-rich origins. We present the discovery and characterization of TOI-7169 b (TIC 372048733 b), a hot Jupiter that is orbiting a spectroscopically-confirmed metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -0.72 +/- 0.05) host star. Based on photometry from TESS and follow-up ground-based imaging, we measure an orbital period of 3.4373125 d and a planetary radius of 1.475 +/- 0.029 R_Jup. We use TRES spectroscopy to determine a mass for TOI-7169 b of 0.41 +/- 0.14 M_Jup. The planet is therefore inflated, with a low density of 0.159 +0.055/-0.054 g/cm^3. We also characterize the host star, showing that TOI-7169 is ancient (12.3 +/- 0.6 Gyr) and alpha-enhanced ([alpha/Fe] ~ 0.3), but with a Galactocentric orbit that is confined to the thin disk. TOI-7169 is perhaps the oldest and most metal-poor star currently known to host a transiting giant planet. Future transmission spectroscopy probing the atmosphere of TOI-7169 b may provide insight into the effect of metallicity on the physical properties of giant planets.

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arXiv2026

An Adolescent and Near-Resonant Planetary System Near the End of Photoevaporation

Young exoplanets provide vital insights into the early dynamical and atmospheric evolution of planetary systems. Many multi-planet systems younger than 100 Myr exhibit mean-motion resonances, likely established through convergent disk migration. Over time, however, these resonant chains are often disrupted, mirroring the Nice model proposed for the Solar System. We present a detailed characterization of the ~200-Myr-old TOI-2076 system, which contains four sub-Neptune planets between 1.4 and 3.5 Earth radii. We demonstrate that its planets are near but not locked in mean-motion resonances, making the system dynamically fragile. The four planets have comparable core masses but display a monotonic increase in hydrogen and helium (H/He) envelope mass fractions (stripped-1%-5%-5%) with decreasing stellar insolation. This trend is consistent with atmospheric mass-loss due to photoevaporation, which predicts that the envelopes of irradiated planets either erode completely or stabilize at a residual level of ~1% by mass within the first few hundred million years, with more distant, less-irradiated planets retaining most of primordial envelopes. Additionally, previous detections of metastable helium outflows rule out a pure water-world scenario for TOI-2076 planets. Our finding provides direct observational evidence that the dynamical and atmospheric reshaping of compact planetary systems begin early, offering an empirical anchor for models of their long-term evolution.

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arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for stellar contamination and water absorption in NGTS-5b's transmission spectra with GTC/OSIRIS

Transmission spectroscopy serves as a valuable tool for probing atmospheric absorption features in the terminator regions of exoplanets. Stellar surface heterogeneity can introduce wavelength-dependent contamination that complicates the interpretation of planetary spectra. We aim to investigate the atmosphere of the warm sub-Saturn NGTS-5b through optical transmission spectroscopy. Two transits were observed with the low-resolution Optical System for Imaging and low-Intermediate-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy (OSIRIS) on the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC). Chromatic transit light curves were modeled to derive optical transmission spectra and multiple Bayesian spectral retrievals were performed to characterize the atmospheric properties. Model comparisons provide strong evidence for contamination from unocculted stellar spots. A joint retrieval of the transmission spectra, assuming equilibrium chemistry, indicates a relatively clear atmosphere with a sub-solar C/O ratio of $<$0.22 (90% upper limit) and a low metallicity of $0.10^{+0.34}_{-0.05} \times$ solar. Retrievals assuming free chemistry yield strong evidence for the presence of $\rm H_2O$, with its abundance constrained to $\log X_{\mathrm{H_2O}} = -0.79^{+0.14}_{-0.17}$. However, the abundances of other species remain unconstrained due to the limited optical wavelength coverage. The discrepancies between the two NGTS-5b transit spectra can be attributed to varying levels of stellar contamination. NGTS-5b thus appears to host a relatively clear, water-rich atmosphere, pending confirmation from additional observations of molecular bands in the infrared.

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arXiv2026

The Occurrence Rate of Nearby Planetary Companions to Hot Jupiters

Of the > 500 confirmed transiting hot jupiters and approximately 2000 additional candidates today, only ten are known to have nearby companion planets. The survival of nearby companions means that these hot jupiters cannot have migrated to their present location via dynamically disruptive high-eccentricity migration but instead have undergone disk migration or formed in situ. The occurrence rate for these nearby companions, therefore, constrains the relative efficiency of different hot jupiter formation pathways. Here, we perform a uniform box least-squares search for nearby transiting companions to hot jupiters in the first five years of TESS data. Accounting for observational completeness and detection efficiency, we arrive at an occurrence rate of $(7.6^{+5.5}_{-3.8})\%$, which is a lower limit on the fraction of hot jupiters that underwent disk migration or in situ formation. Comparing this rate with that derived from transit-timing variation searches suggests that hot jupiters are likely mostly aligned with their nearby companions, but their apparently higher incidence of grazing transits may point to a slight preferential misalignment. We also synthesize evidence that hot jupiters with nearby companions may have cold companions at a rate similar to that of other hot jupiters. Comprehensive transit, radial velocity, and stellar obliquity measurements in hot jupiter systems with nearby companions will be necessary to fully account for the relative prevalence of proposed hot jupiter formation pathways.

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arXiv2026

TOI-3862 b: A dense super-Neptune deep in the hot Neptune desert

The structure and evolution of close-in exoplanets are shaped by atmospheric loss and migration processes, which give rise to key population features such as the hot Neptune desert, ridge, and savanna - regions of the period-radius space whose boundaries offer critical insights into planetary formation and survival. As part of the KESPRINT collaboration, we selected the TESS transiting planet candidate TOI-3862.01 for radial velocity follow-up to confirm its planetary nature and characterize its mass and bulk properties. This planet candidate is of particular interest due to its position in the middle of the hot Neptune desert, making it a valuable probe for testing theories of planet migration and atmospheric loss. We confirmed the planetary nature and determined the mass of TOI-3862.01 (hereinafter TOI-3862b) by performing a joint fit with both transit and radial velocity data, precisely characterizing the bulk properties of this planet. TOI-3862b is a super-Neptune on a 1.56-day orbit around a Sun-like star with an effective temperature of 5300$\pm$50K. It has a mass of 53.7$_{-2.9}^{+2.8}$ M$_{\oplus}$ and a radius of 5.53$\pm$0.18 R$_{\oplus}$, corresponding to a density of 1.7$\pm$0.2 g/cm^3. This places it among the rare population of hot and dense super-Neptune desert planets. TOI-3862b, residing deep in the hot Neptune desert, represents a rare occurrence in an otherwise sparsely populated region, offering a valuable opportunity to probe the processes that may allow planets to survive in such environments.

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arXiv2026

A young progenitor for the most common planetary systems in the Galaxy

The Galaxy's most common known planetary systems have several Earth-to-Neptune-size planets in compact orbits. At small orbital separations, larger planets are less common than their smaller counterparts by an order of magnitude. The young star V1298 Tau hosts one such compact planetary system, albeit with four planets that are uncommonly large (5 to 10 Earth radii). The planets form a chain of near-resonances that result in transit-timing variations of several hours. Here we present a multi-year campaign to characterize this system with transit-timing variations, a method insensitive to the intense magnetic activity of the star. Through targeted observations, we first resolved the previously unknown orbital period of the outermost planet. The full 9-year baseline from these and archival data then enabled robust determination of the masses and orbital parameters for all four planets. We find the planets have low, sub-Neptune masses and nearly circular orbits, implying a dynamically tranquil history. Their low masses and large radii indicate that the inner planets underwent a period of rapid cooling immediately after dispersal of the protoplanetary disk. Still, they are much less dense than mature planets of comparable size. We predict the planets will contract to 1.5-4.0 Earth radii and join the population of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes that nature produces in abundance.

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arXiv2026

Mass estimates of the young TOI-451 transiting planets: Multidimensional Gaussian Process on stellar spectroscopic and photometric signals

The young TOI-451 planetary system, aged 125 Myr, provides a unique opportunity to test theories of planetary internal structures and atmospheric mass loss through examination of its three transiting planets. We present an exhaustive photometric and spectroscopic follow-up to determine the orbital and physical properties of the system. We perform multidimensional Gaussian Process regression with the code pyaneti on spectroscopic time-series and NGTS/LCO light curves to disentangle the stellar and planetary signal in ESPRESSO radial velocities. We show how contemporaneous photometry serves as an activity indicator to inform RV modelling within a multidimensional Gaussian Processes framework. We argue that this can be exploited when spectroscopic observations are adversely affected by low signal-to-noise and/or poor sampling. We estimate the Doppler semi-amplitudes of Kb = 2.6(+1.1,-1.2) m/s, Kc = 1.2(+1.0,-0.8) m/s and Kd = 2.7 +/- 1.2 m/s. This translates into 2-sigma mass estimates for TOI-451 b and d of Mb = 4.7(+2.1,-2.2) Earth masses and Md = 10.2(+4.6,-4.5) Earth masses, as well as a mass upper limit for TOI-451 c of Mc < 11.5 Earth masses. The derived planetary properties suggest that planets c and d contain significant hydrogen-rich envelopes. The inferred parameters of TOI-451 b are consistent with either a rocky world that still retains a small hydrogen envelope or a water world. These insights make the TOI-451 system an ideal laboratory for future follow-up studies aimed at measuring atmospheric compositions, detecting atmospheric mass-loss signatures, and further exploring planetary formation and evolution processes.

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