arXiv subjects

Felipe Oviedo

Publications and source records attributed to Felipe Oviedo.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Energy Use of AI Inference, Efficiency Pathways, and Test-Time Scaling

As AI inference scales to billions of queries, estimates of per-query energy use are increasingly important for capacity planning, efficiency interventions, and policy. Yet many public estimates assume non-production settings, leading to systematic overestimation. We introduce a bottom-up framework estimating inference energy from token throughput, node power, and overhead under large-scale deployment assumptions. For frontier-scale models (>200B parameters) on H100 nodes, we estimate a median energy of 0.31 Wh/query (IQR 0.16-0.60), indicating widely cited estimates are overstated by 4-20x. In test-time scaling scenarios 15x longer than typical queries, the median energy rises 13x to 3.91 Wh (IQR 2.15-7.05). Across models, serving systems, and hardware, we estimate 8-20x line-of-sight energy reductions. At datacenter scale, serving 1 billion queries/day requires 0.7 GWh; if 10% are long queries, demand rises to 1.7 GWh/day. With efficiency interventions, it falls to 0.8 GWh/day, mitigating the energy impact of test-time scaling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AI-Driven Detection and Analysis of Handwriting on Seized Ivory: A Tool to Uncover Criminal Networks in the Illicit Wildlife Trade

The transnational ivory trade continues to drive the decline of elephant populations across Africa, and trafficking networks remain difficult to disrupt. Tusks seized by law enforcement officials carry forensic information on the traffickers responsible for their export, including DNA evidence and handwritten markings made by traffickers. For 20 years, analyses of tusk DNA have identified where elephants were poached and established connections among shipments of ivory. While the links established using genetic evidence are extremely conclusive, genetic data is expensive and sometimes impossible to obtain. But though handwritten markings are easy to photograph, they are rarely documented or analyzed. Here, we present an AI-driven pipeline for extracting and analyzing handwritten markings on seized elephant tusks, offering a novel, scalable, and low-cost source of forensic evidence. Having collected 6,085 photographs from eight large seizures of ivory over a 6-year period (2014-2019), we used an object detection model to extract over 17,000 individual markings, which were then labeled and described using state-of-the-art AI tools. We identified 184 recurring "signature markings" that connect the tusks on which they appear. 20 signature markings were observed in multiple seizures, establishing forensic links between these seizures through traffickers involved in both shipments. This work complements other investigative techniques by filling in gaps where other data sources are unavailable. The study demonstrates the transformative potential of AI in wildlife forensics and highlights practical steps for integrating handwriting analysis into efforts to disrupt organized wildlife crime.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Tackling Data Scarcity with Transfer Learning: A Case Study of Thickness Characterization from Optical Spectra of Perovskite Thin Films

Transfer learning increasingly becomes an important tool in handling data scarcity often encountered in machine learning. In the application of high-throughput thickness as a downstream process of the high-throughput optimization of optoelectronic thin films with autonomous workflows, data scarcity occurs especially for new materials. To achieve high-throughput thickness characterization, we propose a machine learning model called thicknessML that predicts thickness from UV-Vis spectrophotometry input and an overarching transfer learning workflow. We demonstrate the transfer learning workflow from generic source domain of generic band-gapped materials to specific target domain of perovskite materials, where the target domain data only come from limited number (18) of refractive indices from literature. The target domain can be easily extended to other material classes with a few literature data. Defining thickness prediction accuracy to be within-10% deviation, thicknessML achieves 92.2% (with a deviation of 3.6%) accuracy with transfer learning compared to 81.8% (with a deviation of 3.6%) 11.7% without (lower mean and larger standard deviation). Experimental validation on six deposited perovskite films also corroborates the efficacy of the proposed workflow by yielding a 10.5% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

An Artificial Intelligence Dataset for Solar Energy Locations in India

Rapid development of renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV), is critical to mitigate climate change. As a result, India has set ambitious goals to install 500 gigawatts of solar energy capacity by 2030. Given the large footprint projected to meet renewables energy targets, the potential for land use conflicts over environmental values is high. To expedite development of solar energy, land use planners will need access to up-to-date and accurate geo-spatial information of PV infrastructure. In this work, we developed a spatially explicit machine learning model to map utility-scale solar projects across India using freely available satellite imagery with a mean accuracy of 92%. Our model predictions were validated by human experts to obtain a dataset of 1363 solar PV farms. Using this dataset, we measure the solar footprint across India and quantified the degree of landcover modification associated with the development of PV infrastructure. Our analysis indicates that over 74% of solar development In India was built on landcover types that have natural ecosystem preservation, or agricultural value.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

BankNote-Net: Open dataset for assistive universal currency recognition

Millions of people around the world have low or no vision. Assistive software applications have been developed for a variety of day-to-day tasks, including optical character recognition, scene identification, person recognition, and currency recognition. This last task, the recognition of banknotes from different denominations, has been addressed by the use of computer vision models for image recognition. However, the datasets and models available for this task are limited, both in terms of dataset size and in variety of currencies covered. In this work, we collect a total of 24,826 images of banknotes in variety of assistive settings, spanning 17 currencies and 112 denominations. Using supervised contrastive learning, we develop a machine learning model for universal currency recognition. This model learns compliant embeddings of banknote images in a variety of contexts, which can be shared publicly (as a compressed vector representation), and can be used to train and test specialized downstream models for any currency, including those not covered by our dataset or for which only a few real images per denomination are available (few-shot learning). We deploy a variation of this model for public use in the last version of the Seeing AI app developed by Microsoft. We share our encoder model and the embeddings as an open dataset in our BankNote-Net repository.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

An invertible crystallographic representation for general inverse design of inorganic crystals with targeted properties

Realizing general inverse design could greatly accelerate the discovery of new materials with user-defined properties. However, state-of-the-art generative models tend to be limited to a specific composition or crystal structure. Herein, we present a framework capable of general inverse design (not limited to a given set of elements or crystal structures), featuring a generalized invertible representation that encodes crystals in both real and reciprocal space, and a property-structured latent space from a variational autoencoder (VAE). In three design cases, the framework generates 142 new crystals with user-defined formation energies, bandgap, thermoelectric (TE) power factor, and combinations thereof. These generated crystals, absent in the training database, are validated by first-principles calculations. The success rates (number of first-principles-validated target-satisfying crystals/number of designed crystals) ranges between 7.1% and 38.9%. These results represent a significant step toward property-driven general inverse design using generative models, although practical challenges remain when coupled with experimental synthesis.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2021

Interpretable and Explainable Machine Learning for Materials Science and Chemistry

While the uptake of data-driven approaches for materials science and chemistry is at an exciting, early stage, to realise the true potential of machine learning models for successful scientific discovery, they must have qualities beyond purely predictive power. The predictions and inner workings of models should provide a certain degree of explainability by human experts, permitting the identification of potential model issues or limitations, building trust on model predictions and unveiling unexpected correlations that may lead to scientific insights. In this work, we summarize applications of interpretability and explainability techniques for materials science and chemistry and discuss how these techniques can improve the outcome of scientific studies. We discuss various challenges for interpretable machine learning in materials science and, more broadly, in scientific settings. In particular, we emphasize the risks of inferring causation or reaching generalization by purely interpreting machine learning models and the need of uncertainty estimates for model explanations. Finally, we showcase a number of exciting developments in other fields that could benefit interpretability in material science and chemistry problems.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2021

Becoming Good at AI for Good

AI for good (AI4G) projects involve developing and applying artificial intelligence (AI) based solutions to further goals in areas such as sustainability, health, humanitarian aid, and social justice. Developing and deploying such solutions must be done in collaboration with partners who are experts in the domain in question and who already have experience in making progress towards such goals. Based on our experiences, we detail the different aspects of this type of collaboration broken down into four high-level categories: communication, data, modeling, and impact, and distill eleven takeaways to guide such projects in the future. We briefly describe two case studies to illustrate how some of these takeaways were applied in practice during our past collaborations.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Bridging the gap between photovoltaics R&D and manufacturing with data-driven optimization

Novel photovoltaics, such as perovskites and perovskite-inspired materials, have shown great promise due to high efficiency and potentially low manufacturing cost. So far, solar cell R&D has mostly focused on achieving record efficiencies, a process that often results in small batches, large variance, and limited understanding of the physical causes of underperformance. This approach is intensive in time and resources, and ignores many relevant factors for industrial production, particularly the need for high reproducibility and high manufacturing yield, and the accompanying need of physical insights. The record-efficiency paradigm is effective in early-stage R&D, but becomes unsuitable for industrial translation, requiring a repetition of the optimization procedure in the industrial setting. This mismatch between optimization objectives, combined with the complexity of physical root-cause analysis, contributes to decade-long timelines to transfer new technologies into the market. Based on recent machine learning and technoeconomic advances, our perspective articulates a data-driven optimization framework to bridge R&D and manufacturing optimization approaches. We extend the maximum-efficiency optimization paradigm by considering two additional dimensions: a technoeconomic figure of merit and scalable physical inference. Our framework naturally aligns different stages of technology development with shared optimization objectives, and accelerates the optimization process by providing physical insights.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2019

Embedding Physics Domain Knowledge into a Bayesian Network Enables Layer-by-Layer Process Innovation for Photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial and error endeavor, without full transparency of the underlying physics, and with user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond global black-box optimization. Our Bayesian-network approach links process conditions to materials descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency), using a Bayesian inference framework with an autoencoder-based surrogate device-physics model that is 100x faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model, our approach is robust and reduces significantly the time consuming experimentalist intervention, even with small numbers of fabricated samples. To demonstrate our method, we perform layer-by-layer optimization of GaAs solar cells. In a single cycle of learning, we find an improved growth temperature for the GaAs solar cells without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above baseline and traditional black-box optimization methods.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2019

Fast and interpretable classification of small X-ray diffraction datasets using data augmentation and deep neural networks

X-ray diffraction (XRD) data acquisition and analysis is among the most time-consuming steps in the development cycle of novel thin-film materials. We propose a machine-learning-enabled approach to predict crystallographic dimensionality and space group from a limited number of thin-film XRD patterns. We overcome the scarce-data problem intrinsic to novel materials development by coupling a supervised machine learning approach with a model agnostic, physics-informed data augmentation strategy using simulated data from the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD) and experimental data. As a test case, 115 thin-film metal halides spanning 3 dimensionalities and 7 space-groups are synthesized and classified. After testing various algorithms, we develop and implement an all convolutional neural network, with cross validated accuracies for dimensionality and space-group classification of 93% and 89%, respectively. We propose average class activation maps, computed from a global average pooling layer, to allow high model interpretability by human experimentalists, elucidating the root causes of misclassification. Finally, we systematically evaluate the maximum XRD pattern step size (data acquisition rate) before loss of predictive accuracy occurs, and determine it to be 0.16°, which enables an XRD pattern to be obtained and classified in 5.5 minutes or less.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2018

Accelerating Photovoltaic Materials Development via High-Throughput Experiments and Machine-Learning-Assisted Diagnosis

Accelerating the experimental cycle for new materials development is vital for addressing the grand energy challenges of the 21st century. We fabricate and characterize 75 unique halide perovskite-inspired solution-based thin-film materials within a two-month period, with 87% exhibiting band gaps between 1.2 eV and 2.4 eV that are of interest for energy-harvesting applications. This increased throughput is enabled by streamlining experimental workflows, developing a set of precursors amenable to high-throughput synthesis, and developing machine-learning assisted diagnosis. We utilize a deep neural network to classify compounds based on experimental X-ray diffraction data into 0D, 2D, and 3D structures more than 10 times faster than human analysis and with 90% accuracy. We validate our methods using lead-halide perovskites and extend the application to novel lead-free compositions. The wider synthesis window and faster cycle of learning enables three noteworthy scientific findings: (1) we realize four inorganic layered perovskites, A3B2Br9 (A = Cs, Rb; B = Bi, Sb) in thin-film form via one-step liquid deposition; (2) we report a multi-site lead-free alloy series that was not previously described in literature, Cs3(Bi1-xSbx)2(I1-xBrx)9; and (3) we reveal the effect on bandgap (reduction to <2 eV) and structure upon simultaneous alloying on the B-site and X-site of Cs3Bi2I9 with Sb and Br. This study demonstrates that combining an accelerated experimental cycle of learning and machine-learning based diagnosis represents an important step toward realizing fully-automated laboratories for materials discovery and development.

physics.app-ph↗