arXiv subjects

Felix Muesgens

Publications and source records attributed to Felix Muesgens.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Advanced Models for Hourly Marginal CO2 Emission Factor Estimation: A Synergy between Fundamental and Statistical Approaches

Global warming is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). A metric used to quantify the change in CO2 emissions is the marginal emission factor, defined as the marginal change in CO2 emissions resulting from a marginal change in electricity demand over a specified period. This paper aims to present two methodologies to estimate the marginal emission factor in a decarbonized electricity system with high temporal resolution. First, we present an energy systems model that incrementally calculates the marginal emission factors. Second, we examine a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model, a statistical model designed to estimate marginal emission factors faster and use an incremental marginal emission factor as a benchmark to assess its precision. For the German electricity market, we estimate the marginal emissions factor time series historically (2019, 2020) using Agora Energiewende and for the future (2025, 2030, and 2040) using estimated energy system data. The results indicate that the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model is more accurate in estimating marginal emission factors than the Dynamic Linear Regression models, which are frequently used in the literature. Hence, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model is a simpler alternative to the computationally intensive incremental marginal emissions factor, especially when short-term marginal emissions factor estimation is needed. The results of the marginal emission factor estimation are applied to an exemplary low-emission vehicle charging scenario to estimate CO2 savings by shifting the charge hours to those corresponding to the lower marginal emissions factor. By implementing this emission-minimized charging approach, an average reduction of 31% in the marginal emission factor was achieved over the 5 years.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Fuel tax loss in a world of electric mobility: A window of opportunity for congestion pricing

The continued transition towards electric mobility will decrease energy tax revenues worldwide, which has substantial implications for government funds. At the same time, demand for transportation is ever increasing, which in turn increases congestion problems. Combining both challenges, this paper assesses the effectiveness of congestion pricing as a sustainable revenue stream to offset fuel tax loss in 2030 while simultaneously enhancing efficiency in the transport sector. A congestion-based toll that is road-and-time-variant is simulated for the greater Berlin area in Germany using the multi-agent transport simulation (MATSim) software. Through the simulation results, this paper quantifies the impacts of the toll on the governmental revenue, traffic management, environment, social welfare, and the distribution effects. We find that the revenue from congestion tolls in a metropolitan area can compensate the reduction in passenger car fuel tax. Furthermore, a remarkable welfare surplus is observed. The toll also successfully incentivises transport users to adjust their travel behaviour, which reduces traffic delay time by 28%. CO2 emissions as a key metric for decarbonisation of the transport sector decrease by more than 5%. The analysis of the distribution effects suggests that a redistribution plan with a focus on the middle-low-income residents and the outer boroughs could help the policy gain more public acceptance.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of applied auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most remuneration designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.

econ.GN↗