arXiv subjects

Filip Tronarp

Publications and source records attributed to Filip Tronarp.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Bayesian ODE Solvers: The Maximum A Posteriori Estimate

It has recently been established that the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations can be posed as a nonlinear Bayesian inference problem, which can be approximately solved via Gaussian filtering and smoothing, whenever a Gauss--Markov prior is used. In this paper the class of $ν$ times differentiable linear time invariant Gauss--Markov priors is considered. A taxonomy of Gaussian estimators is established, with the maximum a posteriori estimate at the top of the hierarchy, which can be computed with the iterated extended Kalman smoother. The remaining three classes are termed explicit, semi-implicit, and implicit, which are in similarity with the classical notions corresponding to conditions on the vector field, under which the filter update produces a local maximum a posteriori estimate. The maximum a posteriori estimate corresponds to an optimal interpolant in the reproducing Hilbert space associated with the prior, which in the present case is equivalent to a Sobolev space of smoothness $ν+1$. Consequently, using methods from scattered data approximation and nonlinear analysis in Sobolev spaces, it is shown that the maximum a posteriori estimate converges to the true solution at a polynomial rate in the fill-distance (maximum step size) subject to mild conditions on the vector field. The methodology developed provides a novel and more natural approach to study the convergence of these estimators than classical methods of convergence analysis. The methods and theoretical results are demonstrated in numerical examples.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

Variable Splitting Methods for Constrained State Estimation in Partially Observed Markov Processes

In this paper, we propose a class of efficient, accurate, and general methods for solving state-estimation problems with equality and inequality constraints. The methods are based on recent developments in variable splitting and partially observed Markov processes. We first present the generalized framework based on variable splitting, then develop efficient methods to solve the state-estimation subproblems arising in the framework. The solutions to these subproblems can be made efficient by leveraging the Markovian structure of the model as is classically done in so-called Bayesian filtering and smoothing methods. The numerical experiments demonstrate that our methods outperform conventional optimization methods in computation cost as well as the estimation performance.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Maximum likelihood estimation and uncertainty quantification for Gaussian process approximation of deterministic functions

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the dataset. This article provides one of the first theoretical analyses in the context of Gaussian process regression with a noiseless dataset. Specifically, we consider the scenario where the scale parameter of a Sobolev kernel (such as a Matérn kernel) is estimated by maximum likelihood. We show that the maximum likelihood estimation of the scale parameter alone provides significant adaptation against misspecification of the Gaussian process model in the sense that the model can become "slowly" overconfident at worst, regardless of the difference between the smoothness of the data-generating function and that expected by the model. The analysis is based on a combination of techniques from nonparametric regression and scattered data interpolation. Empirical results are provided in support of the theoretical findings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Continuous-Discrete Filtering and Smoothing on Submanifolds of Euclidean Space

In this paper the issue of filtering and smoothing in continuous discrete time is studied when the state variable evolves in some submanifold of Euclidean space, which may not have the usual Lebesgue measure. Formal expressions for prediction and smoothing problems are derived, which agree with the classical results except that the formal adjoint of the generator is different in general. For approximate filtering and smoothing the projection approach is taken, where it turns out that the prediction and smoothing equations are the same as in the case when the state variable evolves in Euclidean space. The approach is used to develop projection filters and smoothers based on the von Mises-Fisher distribution.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Iterated Extended Kalman Smoother-based Variable Splitting for $L_1$-Regularized State Estimation

In this paper, we propose a new framework for solving state estimation problems with an additional sparsity-promoting $L_1$-regularizer term. We first formulate such problems as minimization of the sum of linear or nonlinear quadratic error terms and an extra regularizer, and then present novel algorithms which solve the linear and nonlinear cases. The methods are based on a combination of the iterated extended Kalman smoother and variable splitting techniques such as alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We present a general algorithmic framework for variable splitting methods, where the iterative steps involving minimization of the nonlinear quadratic terms can be computed efficiently by iterated smoothing. Due to the use of state estimation algorithms, the proposed framework has a low per-iteration time complexity, which makes it suitable for solving a large-scale or high-dimensional state estimation problem. We also provide convergence results for the proposed algorithms. The experiments show the promising performance and speed-ups provided by the methods.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2019

Probabilistic Solutions To Ordinary Differential Equations As Non-Linear Bayesian Filtering: A New Perspective

We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative of the GP and the vector field evaluated at the GP---which are all identically zero at the solution of the ODE. When the GP has a state-space representation, the problem can be reduced to a non-linear Bayesian filtering problem and all widely-used approximations to the Bayesian filtering and smoothing problems become applicable. Furthermore, all previous GP-based ODE solvers that are formulated in terms of generating synthetic measurements of the gradient field come out as specific approximations. Based on the non-linear Bayesian filtering problem posed in this paper, we develop novel Gaussian solvers for which we establish favourable stability properties. Additionally, non-Gaussian approximations to the filtering problem are derived by the particle filter approach. The resulting solvers are compared with other probabilistic solvers in illustrative experiments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Gaussian process classification using posterior linearisation

This paper proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearisation (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearisation of the conditional mean of the labels and accounting for the linearisation error. PL has some theoretical advantages over expectation propagation (EP): all calculated covariance matrices are positive definite and there is a local convergence theorem. In experimental data, PL has better performance than EP with the noisy threshold likelihood and the parallel implementation of the algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Iterative Statistical Linear Regression for Gaussian Smoothing in Continuous-Time Non-linear Stochastic Dynamic Systems

This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary Gaussian process. Two methods are developed based on 1) taking the limit of statistical linear regression of the discretised process and 2) minimising an upper bound to a cost functional. Their difference is manifested in the diffusion of the approximate processes. This in turn gives novel derivations of pre-existing Gaussian smoothers when Method 1 is used and a new class of Gaussian smoothers when Method 2 is used. Furthermore, based on the aforementioned development the iterative Gaussian smoothers in discrete-time are generalised to the continuous-time setting by iteratively re-linearising the stochastic differential equation with respect to the current Gaussian process approximation to the smoothed process. The method is verified in two challenging tracking problems, a reentry problem and a radar tracked coordinated turn model with state dependent diffusion. The results show that the method has better estimation accuracy than state-of-the-art smoothers.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Student-t Process Quadratures for Filtering of Non-Linear Systems with Heavy-Tailed Noise

The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable whose variance provides information about the incurred integration error. Advantage of the Student- t process quadrature over the traditional Gaussian process quadrature, is that the integral variance depends also on the function values, allowing for a more robust modelling of the integration error. The moment transform is applied in nonlinear sigma-point filtering and evaluated on two numerical examples, where it is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art moment transforms.

stat.ME↗