arXiv subjects

Filippo Menczer

Publications and source records attributed to Filippo Menczer.

120 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity

Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and inter-event time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

What's in a Session: Tracking Individual Behavior on the Web

We examine the properties of all HTTP requests generated by a thousand undergraduates over a span of two months. Preserving user identity in the data set allows us to discover novel properties of Web traffic that directly affect models of hypertext navigation. We find that the popularity of Web sites -- the number of users who contribute to their traffic -- lacks any intrinsic mean and may be unbounded. Further, many aspects of the browsing behavior of individual users can be approximated by log-normal distributions even though their aggregate behavior is scale-free. Finally, we show that users' click streams cannot be cleanly segmented into sessions using timeouts, affecting any attempt to model hypertext navigation using statistics of individual sessions. We propose a strictly logical definition of sessions based on browsing activity as revealed by referrer URLs; a user may have several active sessions in their click stream at any one time. We demonstrate that applying a timeout to these logical sessions affects their statistics to a lesser extent than a purely timeout-based mechanism.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2010

Agents, Bookmarks and Clicks: A topical model of Web traffic

Analysis of aggregate and individual Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users, we characterize several properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models. We examine both aggregate statistics capturing collective behavior, such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics, such as entropy and session size. No model currently explains all of these empirical observations simultaneously. We show that all of these traffic patterns can be explained by an agent-based model that takes into account several realistic browsing behaviors. First, agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks (a non-Markovian memory mechanism) that are used as teleportation targets. Second, agents can retreat along visited links, a branching mechanism that also allows us to reproduce behaviors such as the use of a back button and tabbed browsing. Finally, agents are sustained by visiting novel pages of topical interest, with adjacent pages being more topically related to each other than distant ones. This modulates the probability that an agent continues to browse or starts a new session, allowing us to recreate heterogeneous session lengths. The resulting model is capable of reproducing the collective and individual behaviors we observe in the empirical data, reconciling the narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users with the extreme heterogeneity of aggregate traffic measurements. This result allows us to identify a few salient features that are necessary and sufficient to interpret the browsing patterns observed in our data. In addition to the descriptive and explanatory power of such a model, our results may lead the way to more sophisticated, realistic, and effective ranking and crawling algorithms.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2010

Folks in Folksonomies: Social Link Prediction from Shared Metadata

Web 2.0 applications have attracted a considerable amount of attention because their open-ended nature allows users to create light-weight semantic scaffolding to organize and share content. To date, the interplay of the social and semantic components of social media has been only partially explored. Here we focus on Flickr and Last.fm, two social media systems in which we can relate the tagging activity of the users with an explicit representation of their social network. We show that a substantial level of local lexical and topical alignment is observable among users who lie close to each other in the social network. We introduce a null model that preserves user activity while removing local correlations, allowing us to disentangle the actual local alignment between users from statistical effects due to the assortative mixing of user activity and centrality in the social network. This analysis suggests that users with similar topical interests are more likely to be friends, and therefore semantic similarity measures among users based solely on their annotation metadata should be predictive of social links. We test this hypothesis on the Last.fm data set, confirming that the social network constructed from semantic similarity captures actual friendship more accurately than Last.fm's suggestions based on listening patterns.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2009

Beyond Zipf's law: Modeling the structure of human language

Human language, the most powerful communication system in history, is closely associated with cognition. Written text is one of the fundamental manifestations of language, and the study of its universal regularities can give clues about how our brains process information and how we, as a society, organize and share it. Still, only classical patterns such as Zipf's law have been explored in depth. In contrast, other basic properties like the existence of bursts of rare words in specific documents, the topical organization of collections, or the sublinear growth of vocabulary size with the length of a document, have only been studied one by one and mainly applying heuristic methodologies rather than basic principles and general mechanisms. As a consequence, there is a lack of understanding of linguistic processes as complex emergent phenomena. Beyond Zipf's law for word frequencies, here we focus on Heaps' law, burstiness, and the topicality of document collections, which encode correlations within and across documents absent in random null models. We introduce and validate a generative model that explains the simultaneous emergence of all these patterns from simple rules. As a result, we find a connection between the bursty nature of rare words and the topical organization of texts and identify dynamic word ranking and memory across documents as key mechanisms explaining the non trivial organization of written text. Our research can have broad implications and practical applications in computer science, cognitive science, and linguistics.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2009

Remembering what we like: Toward an agent-based model of Web traffic

Analysis of aggregate Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people actually navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users over the course of two months, we characterize the properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models, in which destinations are independent of past decisions. In particular, we show that the diversity of sites visited by individual users is smaller and more broadly distributed than predicted by the PageRank model; that link traffic is more broadly distributed than predicted; and that the time between consecutive visits to the same site by a user is less broadly distributed than predicted. To account for these discrepancies, we introduce a more realistic navigation model in which agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks that are used as teleportation targets. The model can also account for branching, a traffic property caused by browser features such as tabs and the back button. The model reproduces aggregate traffic patterns such as site popularity, while also generating more accurate predictions of diversity, link traffic, and return time distributions. This model for the first time allows us to capture the extreme heterogeneity of aggregate traffic measurements while explaining the more narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2006

The egalitarian effect of search engines

Search engines have become key media for our scientific, economic, and social activities by enabling people to access information on the Web in spite of its size and complexity. On the down side, search engines bias the traffic of users according to their page-ranking strategies, and some have argued that they create a vicious cycle that amplifies the dominance of established and already popular sites. We show that, contrary to these prior claims and our own intuition, the use of search engines actually has an egalitarian effect. We reconcile theoretical arguments with empirical evidence showing that the combination of retrieval by search engines and search behavior by users mitigates the attraction of popular pages, directing more traffic toward less popular sites, even in comparison to what would be expected from users randomly surfing the Web.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2006

Scale-free network growth by ranking

Network growth is currently explained through mechanisms that rely on node prestige measures, such as degree or fitness. In many real networks those who create and connect nodes do not know the prestige values of existing nodes, but only their ranking by prestige. We propose a criterion of network growth that explicitly relies on the ranking of the nodes according to any prestige measure, be it topological or not. The resulting network has a scale-free degree distribution when the probability to link a target node is any power law function of its rank, even when one has only partial information of node ranks. Our criterion may explain the frequency and robustness of scale-free degree distributions in real networks, as illustrated by the special case of the Web graph.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2005

How to make the top ten: Approximating PageRank from in-degree

PageRank has become a key element in the success of search engines, allowing to rank the most important hits in the top screen of results. One key aspect that distinguishes PageRank from other prestige measures such as in-degree is its global nature. From the information provider perspective, this makes it difficult or impossible to predict how their pages will be ranked. Consequently a market has emerged for the optimization of search engine results. Here we study the accuracy with which PageRank can be approximated by in-degree, a local measure made freely available by search engines. Theoretical and empirical analyses lead to conclude that given the weak degree correlations in the Web link graph, the approximation can be relatively accurate, giving service and information providers an effective new marketing tool.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2003

Untraceable Email Cluster Bombs: On Agent-Based Distributed Denial of Service

We uncover a vulnerability that allows for an attacker to perform an email-based attack on selected victims, using only standard scripts and agents. What differentiates the attack we describe from other, already known forms of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks is that an attacker does not need to infiltrate the network in any manner -- as is normally required to launch a DDoS attack. Thus, we see this type of attack as a poor man's DDoS. Not only is the attack easy to mount, but it is also almost impossible to trace back to the perpetrator. Along with descriptions of our attack, we demonstrate its destructive potential with (limited and contained) experimental results. We illustrate the potential impact of our attack by describing how an attacker can disable an email account by flooding its inbox; block competition during on-line auctions; harm competitors with an on-line presence; disrupt phone service to a given victim; cheat in SMS-based games; disconnect mobile corporate leaders from their networks; and disrupt electronic elections. Finally, we propose a set of countermeasures that are light-weight, do not require modifications to the infrastructure, and can be deployed in a gradual manner.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2002

Navigating the Small World Web by Textual Cues

Can a Web crawler efficiently locate an unknown relevant page? While this question is receiving much empirical attention due to its considerable commercial value in the search engine community [Cho98,Chakrabarti99,Menczer00,Menczer01], theoretical efforts to bound the performance of focused navigation have only exploited the link structure of the Web graph, neglecting other features [Kleinberg01,Adamic01,Kim02]. Here I investigate the connection between linkage and a content-induced topology of Web pages, suggesting that efficient paths can be discovered by decentralized navigation algorithms based on textual cues.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2001

Links tell us about lexical and semantic Web content

The latest generation of Web search tools is beginning to exploit hypertext link information to improve ranking\cite{Brin98,Kleinberg98} and crawling\cite{Menczer00,Ben-Shaul99etal,Chakrabarti99} algorithms. The hidden assumption behind such approaches, a correlation between the graph structure of the Web and its content, has not been tested explicitly despite increasing research on Web topology\cite{Lawrence98,Albert99,Adamic99,Butler00}. Here I formalize and quantitatively validate two conjectures drawing connections from link information to lexical and semantic Web content. The clink-content conjecture states that a page is similar to the pages that link to it, i.e., one can infer the lexical content of a page by looking at the pages that link to it. I also show that lexical inferences based on link cues are quite heterogeneous across Web communities. The link-cluster conjecture states that pages about the same topic are clustered together, i.e., one can infer the meaning of a page by looking at its neighbours. These results explain the success of the newest search technologies and open the way for more dynamic and scalable methods to locate information in a topic or user driven way.

cs.IR↗