arXiv subjects

Filippo Palomba

Publications and source records attributed to Filippo Palomba.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Sequential Decision Problems with Missing Feedback

This paper investigates the challenges of optimal online policy learning under missing data. State-of-the-art algorithms implicitly assume that rewards are always observable. I show that when rewards are missing at random, the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm maintains optimal regret bounds; however, it selects suboptimal policies with high probability as soon as this assumption is relaxed. To overcome this limitation, I introduce a fully nonparametric algorithm-Doubly-Robust Upper Confidence Bound (DR-UCB)-which explicitly models the form of missingness through observable covariates and achieves a nearly-optimal worst-case regret rate of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$. To prove this result, I derive high-probability bounds for a class of doubly-robust estimators that hold under broad dependence structures. Simulation results closely match the theoretical predictions, validating the proposed framework.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Leveraging Covariates in Regression Discontinuity Designs

It is common practice to incorporate additional covariates in empirical economics. In the context of Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs, covariate adjustment plays multiple roles, making it essential to understand its impact on analysis and conclusions. Typically implemented via local least squares regressions, covariate adjustment can serve three main distinct purposes: (i) improving the efficiency of RD average causal effect estimators, (ii) learning about heterogeneous RD policy effects, and (iii) changing the RD parameter of interest. This article discusses and illustrates empirically how to leverage covariates effectively in RD designs.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

rdhte: Conditional Average Treatment Effects in RD Designs

Understanding causal heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates is a crucial aspect of empirical work. Building on Calonico, Cattaneo, Farrell, Palomba, and Titiunik (2025), this article discusses the software package rdhte for estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects in sharp regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The package includes three main commands: rdhte conducts estimation and robust bias-corrected inference for heterogeneous RD treatment effects, for a given choice of the bandwidth parameter; rdbwhte implements automatic bandwidth selection methods; and rdhte lincom computes point estimates and robust bias-corrected confidence intervals for linear combinations, a post-estimation command specifically tailored to rdhte. We also provide an overview of heterogeneous effects for sharp RD designs, give basic details on the methodology, and illustrate using an empirical application. Finally, we discuss how the package rdhte complements, and in specific cases recovers, the canonical RD package rdrobust (Calonico, Cattaneo, Farrell, and Titiunik 2017).

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread use of ad hoc approaches in applications. Motivated by common empirical practice, we develop a unified, theoretically grounded framework for RD heterogeneity analysis. We show that a fully interacted local linear (in functional parameters) model effectively captures heterogeneity while still being tractable and interpretable in applications. The model structure holds without loss of generality for discrete covariates. Although our proposed model is potentially restrictive for continuous covariates, it naturally aligns with standard empirical practice and offers a causal interpretation for RD applications. We establish principled bandwidth selection and robust bias-corrected inference methods to analyze heterogeneous treatment effects and test group differences. We provide companion software to facilitate implementation of our results. An empirical application illustrates the practical relevance of our methods.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systems

Deferring systems extend supervised Machine Learning (ML) models with the possibility to defer predictions to human experts. However, evaluating the impact of a deferring strategy on system accuracy is still an overlooked area. This paper fills this gap by evaluating deferring systems through a causal lens. We link the potential outcomes framework for causal inference with deferring systems, which allows to identify the causal impact of the deferring strategy on predictive accuracy. We distinguish two scenarios. In the first one, we have access to both the human and ML model predictions for the deferred instances. Here, we can identify the individual causal effects for deferred instances and the aggregates of them. In the second one, only human predictions are available for the deferred instances. Here, we can resort to regression discontinuity designs to estimate a local causal effect. We evaluate our approach on synthetic and real datasets for seven deferring systems from the literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

scpi: Uncertainty Quantification for Synthetic Control Methods

The synthetic control method offers a way to quantify the effect of an intervention using weighted averages of untreated units to approximate the counterfactual outcome that the treated unit(s) would have experienced in the absence of the intervention. This method is useful for program evaluation and causal inference in observational studies. We introduce the software package scpi for prediction and inference using synthetic controls, implemented in Python, R, and Stata. For point estimation or prediction of treatment effects, the package offers an array of (possibly penalized) approaches leveraging the latest optimization methods. For uncertainty quantification, the package offers the prediction interval methods introduced by Cattaneo, Feng and Titiunik (2021) and Cattaneo, Feng, Palomba and Titiunik (2022). The paper includes numerical illustrations and a comparison with other synthetic control software.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Uncertainty Quantification in Synthetic Controls with Staggered Treatment Adoption

We propose principled prediction intervals to quantify the uncertainty of a large class of synthetic control predictions (or estimators) in settings with staggered treatment adoption, offering precise non-asymptotic coverage probability guarantees. From a methodological perspective, we provide a detailed discussion of different causal quantities to be predicted, which we call causal predictands, allowing for multiple treated units with treatment adoption at possibly different points in time. From a theoretical perspective, our uncertainty quantification methods improve on prior literature by (i) covering a large class of causal predictands in staggered adoption settings, (ii) allowing for synthetic control methods with possibly nonlinear constraints, (iii) proposing scalable robust conic optimization methods and principled data-driven tuning parameter selection, and (iv) offering valid uniform inference across post-treatment periods. We illustrate our methodology with an empirical application studying the effects of economic liberalization on real GDP per capita for Sub-Saharan African countries. Companion software packages are provided in Python, R, and Stata.

econ.EM↗