arXiv subjects

Filippo Simini

Publications and source records attributed to Filippo Simini.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Discovering the laws of urbanisation

In 2012 the world's population exceeded 7 billion, and since 2008 the number of individuals living in urban areas has surpassed that of rural areas. This is the result of an overall increase of life expectancy in many countries that has caused an unprecedented growth of the world's total population during recent decades, combined with a net migration flow from rural villages to urban agglomerations. While it is clear that the rate of natural increase and migration flows are the driving forces shaping the spatial distribution of population, a general consensus on the mechanisms that characterise the urbanisation process is still lacking. Here we present two fundamental laws of urbanisation that are quantitatively supported by empirical evidence: 1) the number of cities in a country is proportional to the country's total population, irrespective of the country's area, and 2) the average distance between cities scales as the inverse of the square root of the country's population density. We study the spatio-temporal evolution of population considering two classes of models, Gravity and Intervening Opportunities, to estimate migration flows and show that they produce different spatial patterns of cities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Evacuation time estimate for a total pedestrian evacuation using queuing network model and volunteered geographic information

Estimating city evacuation time is a non-trivial problem due to the interaction between thousands of individual agents, giving rise to various collective phenomena, such as bottleneck formation, intermittent flow and stop-and-go waves. We present a mean field approach to draw relationships between road network spatial attributes, number of evacuees and resultant evacuation time estimate (ETE). We divide $50$ medium sized UK cities into a total of $697$ catchment areas which we define as an area where all agents share the same nearest exit node. In these catchment areas, 90% of agents are within $5.4$ km of their designated exit node. We establish a characteristic flow rate from catchment area attributes (population, distance to exit node and exit node width) and a mean flow rate in free-flow regime by simulating total evacuations using an agent based `queuing network' model. We use these variables to determine a relationship between catchment area attributes and resultant ETE. This relationship could enable emergency planners to make rapid appraisal of evacuation strategies and help support decisions in the run up to a crisis.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Identifying the structural discontinuities of human interactions

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. In the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls and uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylize the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models, thus increasing our ability to predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Emergence of structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks

Mutualistic networks are formed when the interactions between two classes of species are mutually beneficial. They are important examples of cooperation shaped by evolution. Mutualism between animals and plants plays a key role in the organization of ecological communities. Such networks in ecology have generically evolved a nested architecture independent of species composition and latitude - specialists interact with proper subsets of the nodes with whom generalists interact. Despite sustained efforts to explain observed network structure on the basis of community-level stability or persistence, such correlative studies have reached minimal consensus. Here we demonstrate that nested interaction networks could emerge as a consequence of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the species abundance in mutualistic communities. Using analytical and numerical approaches, we show that because of the mutualistic interactions, an increase in abundance of a given species results in a corresponding increase in the total number of individuals in the community, as also the nestedness of the interaction matrix. Indeed, the species abundances and the nestedness of the interaction matrix are correlated by an amount that depends on the strength of the mutualistic interactions. Nestedness and the observed spontaneous emergence of generalist and specialist species occur for several dynamical implementations of the variational principle under stationary conditions. Optimized networks, while remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their counterparts with randomly assigned interactions. In particular, we analytically show that the abundance of the rarest species is directly linked to the resilience of the community. Our work provides a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

Human Mobility in a Continuum Approach

Human mobility is investigated using a continuum approach that allows to calculate the probability to observe a trip to anyarbitrary region, and the fluxes between any two regions. The considered description offers a general and unified framework, in which previously proposed mobility models like the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the recently introduced radiation model are naturally resulting as special cases. A new form of radiation model is derived and its validity is investigated using observational data offered by commuting trips obtained from the United States census data set, and the mobility fluxesextracted from mobile phone data collected in a western European country. The new modeling paradigm offered by this description suggests that the complex topological features observed in large mobility and transportation networks may be the result of a simple stochastic process taking place on an inhomogeneous landscape.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Power-law of Aggregate-size Spectra in Natural Systems

Patterns of animate and inanimate systems show remarkable similarities in their aggregation. One similarity is the double-Pareto distribution of the aggregate-size of system components. Different models have been developed to predict aggregates of system components. However, not many models have been developed to describe probabilistically the aggregate-size distribution of any system regardless of the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of the aggregation process. Here we consider natural animate systems, from one of the greatest mammals - the African elephant (\textit{Loxodonta africana}) - to the \textit{Escherichia coli} bacteria, and natural inanimate systems in river basins. Considering aggregates as islands and their perimeter as a curve mirroring the sculpting network of the system, the probability of exceedence of the drainage area, and the Hack's law are shown to be the the Korčak's law and the perimeter-area relationship for river basins. The perimeter-area relationship, and the probability of exceedence of the aggregate-size provide a meaningful estimate of the same fractal dimension. Systems aggregate because of the influence exerted by a physical or processes network within the system domain. The aggregate-size distribution is accurately derived using the null-method of box-counting on the occurrences of system components. The importance of the aggregate-size spectrum relies on its ability to reveal system form, function, and dynamics also as a function of other coupled systems. Variations of the fractal dimension and of the aggregate-size distribution are related to changes of systems that are meaningful to monitor because potentially critical for these systems.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2012

An allometry-based approach for understanding forest structure, predicting tree-size distribution and assessing the degree of disturbance

Tree-size distribution is one of the most investigated subjects in plant population biology. The forestry literature reports that tree-size distribution trajectories vary across different stands and/or species, while the metabolic scaling theory suggests that the tree number scales universally as -2 power of diameter. Here, we propose a simple functional scaling model in which these two opposing results are reconciled. Basic principles related to crown shape, energy optimization and the finite size scaling approach were used to define a set of relationships based on a single parameter, which allows us to predict the slope of the tree-size distributions in a steady state condition. We tested the model predictions on four temperate mountain forests. Plots (4 ha each, fully mapped) were selected with different degrees of human disturbance (semi-natural stands vs. formerly managed). Results showed that the size distribution range successfully fitted by the model is related to the degree of forest disturbance: in semi-natural forests the range is wide, while in formerly managed forests, the agreement with the model is confined to a very restricted range. We argue that simple allometric relationships, at individual level, shape the structure of the whole forest community.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2012

A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Self-Similarity and Scaling in Forest Communities

Ecological communities exhibit pervasive patterns and inter-relationships between size, abundance, and the availability of resources. We use scaling ideas to develop a unified, model-independent framework for understanding the distribution of tree sizes, their energy use and spatial distribution in tropical forests. We demonstrate that the scaling of the tree crown at the individual level drives the forest structure when resources are fully used. Our predictions match perfectly with the scaling behaviour of an exactly solvable self-similar model of a forest and are in good accord with empirical data. The range, over which pure power law behaviour is observed, depends on the available amount of resources. The scaling framework can be used for assessing the effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystem structure and functionality.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2009

Universal Scaling of Optimal Current Distribution in Transportation Networks

Transportation networks are inevitably selected with reference to their global cost which depends on the strengths and the distribution of the embedded currents. We prove that optimal current distributions for a uniformly injected d-dimensional network exhibit robust scale-invariance properties, independently of the particular cost function considered, as long as it is convex. We find that, in the limit of large currents, the distribution decays as a power law with an exponent equal to (2d-1)/(d-1). The current distribution can be exactly calculated in d=2 for all values of the current. Numerical simulations further suggest that the scaling properties remain unchanged for both random injections and by randomizing the convex cost functions.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗