arXiv subjects

Fiona Lippert

Publications and source records attributed to Fiona Lippert.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Structuring International Governance through the Space of Concerns

When institutions decide by consensus, the official record shows agreement but hides who shaped what was decided. We introduce a way to recover that hidden structure from the one trace consensus cannot suppress: the documentary record of what actors choose to work on. Adapting tools from economic complexity, we map a ``space of concerns'' in which issues lie close when the same actors repeatedly specialize in both -- turning a flat agenda into a measurable topology of attention. Across six decades of the Antarctic Treaty (6,591 documents, 66 actors), engagement is structured, local, and persistent, and the most specialized actors produce binding law at roughly five times the baseline rate. The approach generalizes to any document-rich consensus forum, showing that unanimity does not erase political structure -- it relocates it upstream, into the organization of attention.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Towards detailed and interpretable hybrid modeling of continental-scale bird migration

Hybrid modeling aims to augment traditional theory-driven models with machine learning components that learn unknown parameters, sub-models or correction terms from data. In this work, we build on FluxRGNN, a recently developed hybrid model of continental-scale bird migration, which combines a movement model inspired by fluid dynamics with recurrent neural networks that capture the complex decision-making processes of birds. While FluxRGNN has been shown to successfully predict key migration patterns, its spatial resolution is constrained by the typically sparse observations obtained from weather radars. Additionally, its trainable components lack explicit incentives to adequately predict take-off and landing events. Both aspects limit our ability to interpret model results ecologically. To address this, we propose two major modifications that allow for more detailed predictions on any desired tessellation while providing control over the interpretability of model components. In experiments on the U.S. weather radar network, the enhanced model effectively leverages the underlying movement model, resulting in strong extrapolation capabilities to unobserved locations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Deep Gaussian Markov Random Fields for Graph-Structured Dynamical Systems

Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this structure to develop a computationally efficient approach to state estimation and learning in graph-structured state-space models with (partially) unknown dynamics and limited historical data. Building on recent methods that combine ideas from deep learning with principled inference in Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF), we reformulate graph-structured state-space models as Deep GMRFs defined by simple spatial and temporal graph layers. This results in a flexible spatiotemporal prior that can be learned efficiently from a single time sequence via variational inference. Under linear Gaussian assumptions, we retain a closed-form posterior, which can be sampled efficiently using the conjugate gradient method, scaling favourably compared to classical Kalman filter based approaches

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Physics-informed inference of aerial animal movements from weather radar data

Studying animal movements is essential for effective wildlife conservation and conflict mitigation. For aerial movements, operational weather radars have become an indispensable data source in this respect. However, partial measurements, incomplete spatial coverage, and poor understanding of animal behaviours make it difficult to reconstruct complete spatio-temporal movement patterns from available radar data. We tackle this inverse problem by learning a mapping from high-dimensional radar measurements to low-dimensional latent representations using a convolutional encoder. Under the assumption that the latent system dynamics are well approximated by a locally linear Gaussian transition model, we perform efficient posterior estimation using the classical Kalman smoother. A convolutional decoder maps the inferred latent system states back to the physical space in which the known radar observation model can be applied, enabling fully unsupervised training. To encourage physical consistency, we additionally introduce a physics-informed loss term that leverages known mass conservation constraints. Our experiments on synthetic radar data show promising results in terms of reconstruction quality and data-efficiency.

cs.LG↗