arXiv subjects

Florian Huber

Publications and source records attributed to Florian Huber.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Aggregate VARs: A Bayesian Benchmark for HANK Models

Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) models characterize how entire cross-sectional distributions respond to structural shocks. Traditional representative-agent models are routinely disciplined by impulse responses from aggregate vector autoregressions (VARs). HANK models have no comparable established empirical benchmark because they make predictions not only about aggregates, but also about distributions of micro-level data. We propose a Bayesian benchmark that jointly models macroeconomic aggregates and several marginal distributions from repeated cross sections, including distributions observed in different surveys. Our approach can use both standard structural VAR identification approaches on macroeconomic aggregates and identification restrictions imposed on micro-level data. The model delivers a joint posterior of the distributional effects of shocks, without the need for household panel data or a separate first-stage density estimate.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Clustered Local Projections for Short and Ultra-Short Time Series -- A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework

Estimating the dynamic effects of economic shocks in short and very short samples is impeded by a lack of degrees of freedom. We offer a solution based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework for estimating local projection (LP) impulse response functions across a panel of related time series. The framework explicitly accommodates unbalanced panels in which some series are substantially shorter than others, allowing the short series to borrow information from longer ones at horizons where the short series carry little or no own data. Since series might exhibit heterogeneous dynamics, we develop a sparse finite mixture pool that clusters units by similarity of their impulse response profiles. We show in simulations that our approach substantially improves LP estimation accuracy relative to the standard approach if the time series are short while producing similar LPs for longer time series. Using a US price dataset, augmented with survey responses, we find that supply-chain and oil shocks trigger heterogeneous reactions of different price measures, with headline price indices responding more sharply than their core counterparts and goods prices changing more than services prices.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Soft-Noncrossing Bayesian Panel Quantile Regression for Measuring Climate Tail Risk

We develop a hierarchical Bayesian panel quantile regression model in which unit-specific coefficient paths are smoothed across quantiles by Gaussian processes, while a common time effect absorbs aggregate shocks. Componentwise-monotone Bernstein polynomials, perturbed by unit-specific deviations, deliver soft noncrossing, and we provide identification conditions together with a bound on the crossing probability. Applying the model to 33 countries over 1979--2023, we find that global temperature shocks generate a systemic, non-diversifiable downside risk to output growth. This risk is concentrated in the lower tail and disproportionately affects emerging markets. Finally, we apply our framework to risk analysis and show that the model reduces out-of-sample tail-risk forecast loss by roughly one-third relative to country-specific quantile regressions.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

AI-Guided Design and Optimization of Graphite-Based Anodes via Iterative Experimental Feedback

This study presents an iterative AI-guided workflow that accelerates graphite-based anode development by improving both formulation feasibility and process robustness. Sequential learning via AI/ML-guided multiobjective inverse design for anode optimization was implemented using the Citrine Platform. Starting from a noisy, incomplete dataset, the Citrine Platform was used to generate early surrogate models, which despite low predictive certainty highlighted missing process constraints. By iteratively adding feasibility labels and boundary condition failures, the workflow rapidly converged toward manufacturable, higher-performing formulations. Fabrication reliability improved from frequent process failures to 100% successful cell production, while the fraction of cells delivering $\geq$ 350 mAh g$^{-1}$ increased from 28.4% to 84.8%, with capacity retention rising from 42.1% to 97.3%. These results demonstrate that structured, feedback-driven AI workflows can transform imperfect industrial data into actionable guidance, enabling faster, more reproducible optimization of battery electrode manufacturing.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Double Descent and Benign Overfitting in Macroeconomic Forecasting

We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when the underlying benign-overfitting mechanism holds. The conditions of Bartlett et al. (2020) are satisfied under the exact factor model and can also hold under the more realistic approximate factor model, provided idiosyncratic variances are not too dispersed across series. Because macroeconomic panels have only moderate dimensions, the overparameterization ratio N/T required by the theory is not naturally available. Our solution is to augment the data with synthetic copies from an estimated factor model and we prove that this strategy converges to a kernel ridge regression with a factor-structured kernel. Using monthly (FRED-MD) and quarterly (FRED-QD) US data, the resulting estimator consistently outperforms the Stock-Watson factor model for point forecasting across all series and horizons, with gains that are pervasive, statistically significant, and increasing with the forecast horizon. Our results suggest that benign overfitting, when it works, succeeds because overparameterization implicitly constructs a well-behaved kernel, not because overparameterization is intrinsically desirable.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

A Flexible Approach to Augmenting a Bayesian VAR with Nonlinear Factors

This paper proposes a vector autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, the use of factor methods ensures that departures from linearity are modeled parsimoniously. In particular, they exhibit functional pooling where a small number of nonlinear factors are used to model common nonlinearities across variables. Second, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically lessens the risk of misspecification. Third, Bayesian computation using MCMC is straightforward even in very high-dimensional models, allowing for efficient, equation-by-equation estimation, thus avoiding computational bottlenecks that arise in popular alternatives such as the time-varying parameter VAR. Fourth, existing methods for identifying structural economic shocks in linear factor models can be adapted for the nonlinear case in a straightforward fashion using our model. Exercises involving artificial and macroeconomic data illustrate the properties of our model and its usefulness for forecasting and structural economic analysis.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Fluctuation Correction and Global Solutions for the Stochastic Shigesada-Kawasaki-Teramoto System via Entropy-Based Regularization

We study a stochastic extension of the n-species Shigesada-Kawasaki-Teramoto (SKT) cross-diffusion system, in which a multiplicative noise term accounts for fluctuation corrections to the mean-field dynamics arising from a finite underlying population. The noise we consider is motivated by, but not rigorously derived from, the particle-system approximation of Chen, Daus, Holzinger, and J"ungel; it only partially respects the entropy (gradient-flow) structure of the deterministic system, which is the main source of the technical difficulties addressed in this paper. For the resulting system of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), we establish the existence of nonnegative, global, weak martingale solutions, under a detailed-balance condition on the diffusion coefficients and a smallness condition relating the noise intensity to these coefficients. This smallness condition amounts to a sufficiently large population size N (equivalently, small fluctuation strength 1/N): the existence theory thus operates in the perturbative regime around the deterministic mean-field limit, and for fixed coefficients it is always satisfiable once N is large enough.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Experimental Demonstration of Logical Magic State Distillation

Realizing universal fault-tolerant quantum computation is a key goal in quantum information science. By encoding quantum information into logical qubits utilizing quantum error correcting codes, physical errors can be detected and corrected, enabling substantial reduction in logical error rates. However, the set of logical operations that can be easily implemented on such encoded qubits is often constrained, necessitating the use of special resource states known as 'magic states' to implement universal, classically hard circuits. A key method to prepare high-fidelity magic states is to perform 'distillation', creating them from multiple lower fidelity inputs. Here we present the experimental realization of magic state distillation with logical qubits on a neutral-atom quantum computer. Our approach makes use of a dynamically reconfigurable architecture to encode and perform quantum operations on many logical qubits in parallel. We demonstrate the distillation of magic states encoded in d=3 and d=5 color codes, observing improvements of the logical fidelity of the output magic states compared to the input logical magic states. These experiments demonstrate a key building block of universal fault-tolerant quantum computation, and represent an important step towards large-scale logical quantum processors.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning the Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks

We propose a method to learn the nonlinear impulse responses to structural shocks using neural networks, and apply it to uncover the effects of US financial shocks. The results reveal substantial asymmetries with respect to the sign of the shock. Adverse financial shocks have powerful effects on the US economy, while benign shocks trigger much smaller reactions. Instead, with respect to the size of the shocks, we find no discernible asymmetries.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

The Distributional Effects of Economic Uncertainty

We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers decreases, while the share of households reporting low consumption increases; at longer horizons, the fraction of low-income workers increases, but the consumption distribution reverts to its pre-shock shape. While the first phase reduces income inequality and increases consumption inequality, in the second stage income inequality rises, while the effects on consumption inequality dissipate. Finally, we introduce Functional Local Projections and show that they yield similar results.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

MassSpecGym: A benchmark for the discovery and identification of molecules

The discovery and identification of molecules in biological and environmental samples is crucial for advancing biomedical and chemical sciences. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is the leading technique for high-throughput elucidation of molecular structures. However, decoding a molecular structure from its mass spectrum is exceptionally challenging, even when performed by human experts. As a result, the vast majority of acquired MS/MS spectra remain uninterpreted, thereby limiting our understanding of the underlying (bio)chemical processes. Despite decades of progress in machine learning applications for predicting molecular structures from MS/MS spectra, the development of new methods is severely hindered by the lack of standard datasets and evaluation protocols. To address this problem, we propose MassSpecGym -- the first comprehensive benchmark for the discovery and identification of molecules from MS/MS data. Our benchmark comprises the largest publicly available collection of high-quality labeled MS/MS spectra and defines three MS/MS annotation challenges: de novo molecular structure generation, molecule retrieval, and spectrum simulation. It includes new evaluation metrics and a generalization-demanding data split, therefore standardizing the MS/MS annotation tasks and rendering the problem accessible to the broad machine learning community. MassSpecGym is publicly available at https://github.com/pluskal-lab/MassSpecGym.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2024

General Seemingly Unrelated Local Projections

We develop a flexible framework for Bayesian estimation of impulse responses using Local Projections (LPs) with instrumental variables. It accommodates multiple shocks and instruments, accounts for autocorrelation in multi-step forecasts by jointly modeling all LPs as a seemingly unrelated system of equations, defines a flexible yet parsimonious joint prior for impulse responses based on a Gaussian Process, and allows for joint inference about the entire vector of impulse responses. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that our approach delivers more accurate point and uncertainty estimates than standard methods. To address misspecification, we propose an optional robustification step based on power posteriors.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Asymmetries in Financial Spillovers

This paper analyzes nonlinearities in the international transmission of financial shocks originating in the US. To do so, we develop a flexible nonlinear multi-country model. Our framework is capable of producing asymmetries in the responses to financial shocks for shock size and sign, and over time. We show that international reactions to US-based financial shocks are asymmetric along these dimensions. Particularly, we find that adverse shocks trigger stronger declines in output, inflation, and stock markets than benign shocks. Further, we investigate time variation in the estimated dynamic effects and characterize the responsiveness of three major central banks to financial shocks.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian modelling of VAR precision matrices using stochastic block networks

Commonly used priors for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) induce shrinkage on the autoregressive coefficients. Introducing shrinkage on the error covariance matrix is sometimes done but, in the vast majority of cases, without considering the network structure of the shocks and by placing the prior on the lower Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. In this paper, we propose a prior on the VAR error precision matrix directly. Our prior, which resembles a standard spike and slab prior, models variable inclusion probabilities through a stochastic block model that clusters shocks into groups. Within groups, the probability of having relations across group members is higher (inducing less sparsity) whereas relations across groups imply a lower probability that members of each group are conditionally related. We show in simulations that our approach recovers the true network structure well. Using a US macroeconomic data set, we illustrate how our approach can be used to cluster shocks together and that this feature leads to improved density forecasts.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Large-scale quantum reservoir learning with an analog quantum computer

Quantum machine learning has gained considerable attention as quantum technology advances, presenting a promising approach for efficiently learning complex data patterns. Despite this promise, most contemporary quantum methods require significant resources for variational parameter optimization and face issues with vanishing gradients, leading to experiments that are either limited in scale or lack potential for quantum advantage. To address this, we develop a general-purpose, gradient-free, and scalable quantum reservoir learning algorithm that harnesses the quantum dynamics of neutral-atom analog quantum computers to process data. We experimentally implement the algorithm, achieving competitive performance across various categories of machine learning tasks, including binary and multi-class classification, as well as timeseries prediction. Effective and improving learning is observed with increasing system sizes of up to 108 qubits, demonstrating the largest quantum machine learning experiment to date. We further observe comparative quantum kernel advantage in learning tasks by constructing synthetic datasets based on the geometric differences between generated quantum and classical data kernels. Our findings demonstrate the potential of utilizing classically intractable quantum correlations for effective machine learning. We expect these results to stimulate further extensions to different quantum hardware and machine learning paradigms, including early fault-tolerant hardware and generative machine learning tasks.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Markovian Lifts of Stochastic Volterra Equations in Sobolev Spaces: Solution theory, an Ito Formula and Invariant Measures

We investigate Markovian lifts of stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs) with completely monotone kernels and general coefficients within the framework of weighted Sobolev spaces. Our primary focus is developing a comprehensive solution theory for a class of non-local stochastic evolution equations (SEEs) encompassing these Markovian lifts. This enables us to provide conditions for the existence of invariant measures for the lifted processes and the corresponding SVE, and, for uniformly elliptic diffusion coefficients, to establish uniqueness and exponential ergodicity via a generalized Harris theorem. Another key contribution is an It^o-type formula for the stochastic Volterra equations under consideration, from which we develop a range of applications: a finite-time blow-up criterion, a Feynman-Kac representation together with the associated backward Kolmogorov equation on the lift space, and a pricing equation for rough volatility models.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Quantum quench dynamics as a shortcut to adiabaticity

The ability to efficiently prepare ground states of quantum Hamiltonians via adiabatic protocols is typically limited by the smallest energy gap encountered during the quantum evolution. This presents a key obstacle for quantum simulation and realizations of adiabatic quantum algorithms in large systems, particularly when the adiabatic gap vanishes exponentially with system size. Using QuEra's Aquila programmable quantum simulator based on Rydberg atom arrays, we experimentally demonstrate a method to circumvent such limitations. Specifically, we develop and test a "sweep-quench-sweep" quantum algorithm in which the incorporation of a quench step serves as a remedy to the diverging adiabatic timescale. These quenches introduce a macroscopic reconfiguration between states separated by an extensively large Hamming distance, akin to quantum many-body scars. Our experiments show that this approach significantly outperforms the adiabatic algorithm, illustrating that such quantum quench algorithms can provide a shortcut to adiabaticity for large-scale many-body quantum systems.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Polynomial interacting particle systems and non-linear SPDEs for market capitalization curves

Motivated by the robustness of the capital distribution curves, we study the behavior of a certain polynomial equity market model as the number of companies goes to infinity. More precisely, we extend volatility-stabilized market models introduced by Fernholz et al. by allowing for a common noise term such that the models remain polynomial. As the number of companies approaches infinity, we show that the limit of the empirical measure of the $N$-company system converges to the unique solution of a degenerate, non-linear SPDE. The obtained limit also has a representation as the conditional probability of the solution to a certain McKean-Vlasov SDE. Together with its conditional, this is again a polynomial process for which we can prove pathwise uniqueness as well as regularity properties for the marginal densities. We also provide conditional propagation of chaos results and numerical implementations of the particle system as well as its limiting equations.

math.PR↗