arXiv subjects

Florian Maire

Publications and source records attributed to Florian Maire.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Non-asymptotic Analysis for Learning and Applying a Preconditioner in MCMC

Preconditioning is a common method applied to modify Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with the goal of making them more efficient. In practice it is often extremely effective, even when the preconditioner is learned from the chain. We analyse and compare the finite-time computational costs of schemes which learn a preconditioner based on the target covariance or the expected Hessian of the target potential with that of a corresponding scheme that does not use preconditioning. We apply our results to various algorithms including the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA) and the proximal sampler for an appropriately regular target, establishing non-asymptotic guarantees for versions of these algorithms that learn and use preconditioners. To do so, we establish non-asymptotic guarantees on the time taken to collect $N$ approximately independent samples from the target for schemes that learn their preconditioners under the assumption that the underlying Markov chain satisfies a contraction in the Wasserstein-2 distance. This approximate independence condition, that we formalize, allows us to bridge the non-asymptotic bounds of modern MCMC theory and classical heuristics of effective sample size and mixing time, and is needed to amortise the costs of learning a preconditioner across the samples it will help to produce.

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arXiv2026

Theoretical guarantees for lifted samplers

Lifted samplers form a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which has drawn a lot attention in recent years due to superior performance in challenging Bayesian applications. A canonical example of lifted samplers is the one that is derived from a random walk Metropolis algorithm for a totally-ordered state space such as the integers or the real numbers. The lifted sampler is derived by splitting into two the proposal distribution: one part in the increasing direction, and the other part in the decreasing direction. It keeps following a direction, until a rejection occurs, upon which it flips the direction. In terms of asymptotic variances, it outperforms the random walk Metropolis algorithm, regardless of the target distribution, at no additional computational cost. Other studies show, however, that beyond this simple case, lifted samplers do not always outperform their Metropolis counterparts. In this paper, we leverage the celebrated work of Tierney (1998) to provide an analysis in a general framework encompassing a broad class of lifted samplers. Our finding is that, essentially, the asymptotic variances cannot increase by a factor of more than 2, regardless of the target distribution, the way the directions are induced, and the type of algorithm from which the lifted sampler is derived (be it a Metropolis--Hastings algorithm, a reversible jump algorithm, etc.). This result indicates that, while there is potentially a lot to gain from lifting a sampler, there is not much to lose.

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arXiv2025

Adaptive Pseudo-Marginal Algorithm

The Pseudo-Marginal (PM) algorithm is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used to sample from a target distribution when its density is inaccessible, but can be estimated with a non-negative unbiased estimator. Its performance depends on a key parameter, N, the number of iterations (or particles) used to approximate the target density. Larger values of N yield more accurate estimates but at increased running time. Previous studies has provided guidelines for selecting an optimal value of N to balance this tradeoff. However, this approach involves multiple steps and manual adjustments. To overcome these limitations, we introduce an adaptive version of the PM algorithm, where N is automatically adjusted during the iterative process toward its optimal value, thus eliminating the need for manual intervention. This algorithm ensures convergence under certain conditions. On two examples, including a real data problem on pulmonary infection in preschool children, the proposed algorithm compares favorably to the existing approach.

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arXiv2025

Exponential Convergence of CAVI for Bayesian PCA

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA) and its Bayesian variant (BPCA) are widely used for dimension reduction in machine learning and statistics. The main advantage of probabilistic PCA over the traditional formulation is allowing uncertainty quantification. The parameters of BPCA are typically learned using mean-field variational inference, and in particular, the coordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI) algorithm. So far, the convergence speed of CAVI for BPCA has not been characterized. In our paper, we fill this gap in the literature. Firstly, we prove a precise exponential convergence result in the case where the model uses a single principal component (PC). Interestingly, this result is established through a connection with the classical $\textit{power iteration algorithm}$ and it indicates that traditional PCA is retrieved as points estimates of the BPCA parameters. Secondly, we leverage recent tools to prove exponential convergence of CAVI for the model with any number of PCs, thus leading to a more general result, but one that is of a slightly different flavor. To prove the latter result, we additionally needed to introduce a novel lower bound for the symmetric Kullback--Leibler divergence between two multivariate normal distributions, which, we believe, is of independent interest in information theory.

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arXiv2024

The occlusion process: improving sampler performance with parallel computation and variational approximation

Autocorrelations in MCMC chains increase the variance of the estimators they produce. We propose the occlusion process to mitigate this problem. It is a process that sits upon an existing MCMC sampler, and occasionally replaces its samples with ones that are decorrelated from the chain. We show that this process inherits many desirable properties from the underlying MCMC sampler, such as a Law of Large Numbers, convergence in a normed function space, and geometric ergodicity, to name a few. We show how to simulate the occlusion process at no additional time-complexity to the underlying MCMC chain. This requires a threaded computer, and a variational approximation to the target distribution. We demonstrate empirically the occlusion process' decorrelation and variance reduction capabilities on two target distributions. The first is a bimodal Gaussian mixture model in 1d and 100d. The second is the Ising model on an arbitrary graph, for which we propose a novel variational distribution.

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arXiv2024

An asymptotic Peskun ordering and its application to lifted samplers

A Peskun ordering between two samplers, implying a dominance of one over the other, is known among the Markov chain Monte Carlo community for being a remarkably strong result. It is however also known for being a result that is notably difficult to establish. Indeed, one has to prove that the probability to reach a state $\mathbf{y}$ from a state $\mathbf{x}$, using a sampler, is greater than or equal to the probability using the other sampler, and this must hold for all pairs $(\mathbf{x}, \mathbf{y})$ such that $\mathbf{x} \neq \mathbf{y}$. We provide in this paper a weaker version that does not require an inequality between the probabilities for all these states: essentially, the dominance holds asymptotically, as a varying parameter grows without bound, as long as the states for which the probabilities are greater than or equal to belong to a mass-concentrating set. The weak ordering turns out to be useful to compare lifted samplers for partially-ordered discrete state-spaces with their Metropolis--Hastings counterparts. An analysis in great generality yields a qualitative conclusion: they asymptotically perform better in certain situations (and we are able to identify them), but not necessarily in others (and the reasons why are made clear). A quantitative study in a specific context of graphical-model simulation is also conducted.

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arXiv2023

Improving multiple-try Metropolis with local balancing

Multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the appealing feature of being amenable to parallel computing. At each iteration, it samples several candidates for the next state of the Markov chain and randomly selects one of them based on a weight function. The canonical weight function is proportional to the target density. We show both theoretically and empirically that this weight function induces pathological behaviours in high dimensions, especially during the convergence phase. We propose to instead use weight functions akin to the locally-balanced proposal distributions of Zanella (2020), thus yielding MTM algorithms that do not exhibit those pathological behaviours. To theoretically analyse these algorithms, we study the high-dimensional performance of ideal schemes that can be thought of as MTM algorithms which sample an infinite number of candidates at each iteration, as well as the discrepancy between such schemes and the MTM algorithms which sample a finite number of candidates. Our analysis unveils a strong distinction between the convergence and stationary phases: in the former, local balancing is crucial and effective to achieve fast convergence, while in the latter, the canonical and novel weight functions yield similar performance. Numerical experiments include an application in precision medicine involving a computationally-expensive forward model, which makes the use of parallel computing within MTM iterations beneficial.

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arXiv2023

Computationally efficient inference for latent position network models

Latent position models are widely used for the analysis of networks in a variety of research fields. In fact, these models possess a number of desirable theoretical properties, and are particularly easy to interpret. However, statistical methodologies to fit these models generally incur a computational cost which grows with the square of the number of nodes in the graph. This makes the analysis of large social networks impractical. In this paper, we propose a new method characterised by a much reduced computational complexity, which can be used to fit latent position models on networks of several tens of thousands nodes. Our approach relies on an approximation of the likelihood function, where the amount of noise introduced by the approximation can be arbitrarily reduced at the expense of computational efficiency. We establish several theoretical results that show how the likelihood error propagates to the invariant distribution of the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. In particular, we demonstrate that one can achieve a substantial reduction in computing time and still obtain a good estimate of the latent structure. Finally, we propose applications of our method to simulated networks and to a large coauthorships network, highlighting the usefulness of our approach.

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arXiv2022

Markov Kernels Local Aggregation for Noise Vanishing Distribution Sampling

A novel strategy that combines a given collection of $π$-reversible Markov kernels is proposed. At each Markov transition, one of the available kernels is selected via a state-dependent probability distribution. In contrast to random-scan type approaches that assume a constant (i.e. state-independent) selection probability distribution, the state-dependent distribution is specified so as to privilege moving according to a kernel which is relevant for the local topology of the target distribution. This approach leverages paths or other low dimensional manifolds that are typically present in noise vanishing distributions. Some examples for which we show (theoretically or empirically) that a locally-weighted aggregation converges substantially faster and yields smaller asymptotic variances than an equivalent random-scan algorithm are provided.

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arXiv2019

On the convergence time of some non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

It is commonly admitted that non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms usually yield more accurate MCMC estimators than their reversible counterparts. In this note, we show that in addition to their variance reduction effect, some non-reversible MCMC algorithms have also the undesirable property to slow down the convergence of the Markov chain. This point, which has been overlooked by the literature, has obvious practical implications. We illustrate this phenomenon for different non-reversible versions of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm on several discrete state space examples and discuss ways to mitigate the risk of a small asymptotic variance/slow convergence scenario.

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arXiv2018

Model comparison for Gibbs random fields using noisy reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method offers an across-model simulation approach for Bayesian estimation and model comparison, by exploring the sampling space that consists of several models of possibly varying dimensions. A naive implementation of RJMCMC to models like Gibbs random fields suffers from computational difficulties: the posterior distribution for each model is termed doubly-intractable since computation of the likelihood function is rarely available. Consequently, it is simply impossible to simulate a transition of the Markov chain in the presence of likelihood intractability. A variant of RJMCMC is presented, called noisy RJMCMC, where the underlying transition kernel is replaced with an approximation based on unbiased estimators. Based on previous theoretical developments, convergence guarantees for the noisy RJMCMC algorithm are provided. The experiments show that the noisy RJMCMC algorithm can be much more efficient than other exact methods, provided that an estimator with controlled Monte Carlo variance is used, a fact which is in agreement with the theoretical analysis.

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arXiv2018

Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo

We propose Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo (AIMM), a novel approach to sample from challenging probability distributions defined on a general state-space. While adaptive MCMC methods usually update a parametric proposal kernel with a global rule, AIMM locally adapts a semiparametric kernel. AIMM is based on an independent Metropolis-Hastings proposal distribution which takes the form of a finite mixture of Gaussian distributions. Central to this approach is the idea that the proposal distribution adapts to the target by locally adding a mixture component when the discrepancy between the proposal mixture and the target is deemed to be too large. As a result, the number of components in the mixture proposal is not fixed in advance. Theoretically, we prove that there exists a process that can be made arbitrarily close to AIMM and that converges to the correct target distribution. We also illustrate that it performs well in practice in a variety of challenging situations, including high-dimensional and multimodal target distributions.

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arXiv2018

Informed Sub-Sampling MCMC: Approximate Bayesian Inference for Large Datasets

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly refreshed throughout the algorithm. Inspired by the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) literature, the subsampling process is guided by the fidelity to the observed data, as measured by summary statistics. The resulting algorithm, Informed Sub-Sampling MCMC (ISS-MCMC), is a generic and flexible approach which, contrary to existing scalable methodologies, preserves the simplicity of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Even though exactness is lost, i.e. the chain distribution approximates the posterior, we study and quantify theoretically this bias and show on a diverse set of examples that it yields excellent performances when the computational budget is limited. If available and cheap to compute, we show that setting the summary statistics as the maximum likelihood estimator is supported by theoretical arguments.

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arXiv2017

Bayesian model selection for exponential random graph models via adjusted pseudolikelihoods

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable problem because both the likelihood function and the posterior distribution are intractable. The comparison of Bayesian models is often based on the statistical evidence, the integral of the un-normalised posterior distribution over the model parameters which is rarely available in closed form. For doubly-intractable models, estimating the evidence adds another layer of difficulty. Consequently, the selection of the model that best describes an observed network among a collection of exponential random graph models for network analysis is a daunting task. Pseudolikelihoods offer a tractable approximation to the likelihood but should be treated with caution because they can lead to an unreasonable inference. This paper specifies a method to adjust pseudolikelihoods in order to obtain a reasonable, yet tractable, approximation to the likelihood. This allows implementation of widely used computational methods for evidence estimation and pursuit of Bayesian model selection of exponential random graph models for the analysis of social networks. Empirical comparisons to existing methods show that our procedure yields similar evidence estimates, but at a lower computational cost.

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arXiv2017

Efficient MCMC for Gibbs Random Fields using pre-computation

Bayesian inference of Gibbs random fields (GRFs) is often referred to as a doubly intractable problem, since the likelihood function is intractable. The exploration of the posterior distribution of such models is typically carried out with a sophisticated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006), which requires simulations from the likelihood function at each iteration. The purpose of this paper is to consider an approach to dramatically reduce this computational overhead. To this end we introduce a novel class of algorithms which use realizations of the GRF model, simulated offline, at locations specified by a grid that spans the parameter space. This strategy speeds up dramatically the posterior inference, as illustrated on several examples. However, using the pre-computed graphs introduces a noise in the MCMC algorithm, which is no longer exact. We study the theoretical behaviour of the resulting approximate MCMC algorithm and derive convergence bounds using a recent theoretical development on approximate MCMC methods.

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arXiv2017

Efficient Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models by correcting the pseudo-posterior distribution

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalizing constant. This barrier motivates the consideration of tractable approximations to the likelihood function, such as the pseudolikelihood function, which offers an approach to constructing such an approximation. Naive implementation of what we term a pseudo-posterior resulting from replacing the likelihood function in the posterior distribution by the pseudolikelihood is likely to give misleading inferences. We provide practical guidelines to correct a sample from such a pseudo-posterior distribution so that it is approximately distributed from the target posterior distribution and discuss the computational and statistical efficiency that result from this approach. We illustrate our methodology through the analysis of real-world graphs. Comparisons against the approximate exchange algorithm of Caimo and Friel (2011) are provided, followed by concluding remarks.

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arXiv2016

Online EM for Functional Data

A novel approach to perform unsupervised sequential learning for functional data is proposed. Our goal is to extract reference shapes (referred to as templates) from noisy, deformed and censored realizations of curves and images. Our model generalizes the Bayesian dense deformable template model (Allassonnière et al., 2007), a hierarchical model in which the template is the function to be estimated and the deformation is a nuisance, assumed to be random with a known prior distribution. The templates are estimated using a Monte Carlo version of the online Expectation-Maximization algorithm, extending the work from Cappé and Moulines (2009). Our sequential inference framework is significantly more computationally efficient than equivalent batch learning algorithms, especially when the missing data is high-dimensional. Some numerical illustrations on curve registration problem and templates extraction from images are provided to support our findings.

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arXiv2015

Light and Widely Applicable MCMC: Approximate Bayesian Inference for Large Datasets

Light and Widely Applicable (LWA-) MCMC is a novel approximation of the Metropolis-Hastings kernel targeting a posterior distribution defined on a large number of observations. Inspired by Approximate Bayesian Computation, we design a Markov chain whose transition makes use of an unknown but fixed, fraction of the available data, where the random choice of sub-sample is guided by the fidelity of this sub-sample to the observed data, as measured by summary (or sufficient) statistics. LWA-MCMC is a generic and flexible approach, as illustrated by the diverse set of examples which we explore. In each case LWA-MCMC yields excellent performance and in some cases a dramatic improvement compared to existing methodologies.

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