arXiv subjects

Florian Seligmann

Publications and source records attributed to Florian Seligmann.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

YOLO-Pose models provide efficient keypoint localization, but do not quantify the associated spatial uncertainty. We introduce a lightweight post-hoc probabilistic extension that augments a trained YOLO-Pose model with calibrated bivariate predictive distributions over keypoint locations, centered at the model's original predictions. Concretely, we train additional probabilistic heads with an importance-weighted negative log-likelihood to predict an input-dependent $2\times2$ dispersion matrix for each keypoint, followed by Gaussian calibration for broad downstream compatibility or Student-$t$ calibration for distributional fidelity. Complementing this, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines a suite of distributional calibration diagnostics with average keypoint precision (AKP), a keypoint-level extension of the COCO AP protocol for assessing reliability rankings. Experiments on COCO show that the learned uncertainty estimates enable effective keypoint-level reliability ranking, Student-$t$ calibration best captures the empirical residual distribution, and uncertainty-based pruning removes unreliable keypoints. A central application-level demonstration is vision-based aircraft landing, where calibrated covariances for runway keypoints support uncertainty-aware aircraft position estimation and downstream sensor fusion.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

VLA-FAIL: Efficient Task Failure Detection for Finetuned Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) achieve state-of-the-art performance on many robotic manipulation tasks, yet they can still behave unpredictably in out-of-distribution scenarios. Runtime failure detection is therefore essential for the safe real-world deployment of VLAs. However, existing task failure detectors require computationally expensive action sampling, are based on architectural assumptions that limit their applicability to VLAs, or need access to failure rollouts. We propose VLA-FAIL, a lightweight and broadly applicable failure detection framework for VLAs that combines two novel failure detectors with minimal overhead, without requiring failure data. The first, last-layer Mahalanobis distance (LLMD), detects out-of-distribution states by measuring token-wise deviations in last-layer features relative to the training data. The second, action chunk consistency (ACC), exploits the temporal overlap induced by receding-horizon control and detects failures when consecutive action chunks become inconsistent. To capture the trade-off between detection accuracy and detection latency, we introduce AUCPDT, a threshold-independent metric that jointly evaluates precision, recall, and detection time. Through extensive real-world and simulation experiments, we demonstrate that LLMD and ACC capture complementary failure modes whose combination enables reliable and early failure detection across diverse tasks, frequently outperforming significantly more expensive baseline methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SEAR: Sample Efficient Action Chunking Reinforcement Learning

Action chunking improves exploration and accelerates value propagation in long-horizon reinforcement learning, but naively applying off-policy methods to the temporally extended action space at reduced decision frequency offsets these gains, leading to poor sample efficiency. Existing online action chunking methods address these issues through computationally expensive critic-only approaches or by relying on offline data. We introduce SEAR, a sample-efficient off-policy algorithm that enables online reinforcement learning with action chunks by addressing both challenges. To handle high-dimensional action sequences, SEAR employs a causal transformer critic trained with multi-horizon targets that provide a training signal for every prefix of an action chunk, effectively increasing the useful gradients per sample. To restore decision frequency, SEAR operates with a receding horizon and random replanning, ensuring uniform state coverage while combining the fast value propagation of large chunks with the reactivity of small ones. SEAR outperforms state-of-the-art online reinforcement learning methods including SimbaV2 on challenging Metaworld manipulation tasks. Beyond online RL, applying SEAR to the offline-to-online method QC improves its performance on the demanding OGBench cube-triple tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Beyond Deep Ensembles: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Bayesian Deep Learning under Distribution Shift

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and challenging benchmark tasks in a systematic manner. To provide a clear picture of the current state of BDL research, we evaluate modern BDL algorithms on real-world datasets from the WILDS collection containing challenging classification and regression tasks, with a focus on generalization capability and calibration under distribution shift. We compare the algorithms on a wide range of large, convolutional and transformer-based neural network architectures. In particular, we investigate a signed version of the expected calibration error that reveals whether the methods are over- or under-confident, providing further insight into the behavior of the methods. Further, we provide the first systematic evaluation of BDL for fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where training from scratch is prohibitively expensive. Finally, given the recent success of Deep Ensembles, we extend popular single-mode posterior approximations to multiple modes by the use of ensembles. While we find that ensembling single-mode approximations generally improves the generalization capability and calibration of the models by a significant margin, we also identify a failure mode of ensembles when finetuning large transformer-based language models. In this setting, variational inference based approaches such as last-layer Bayes By Backprop outperform other methods in terms of accuracy by a large margin, while modern approximate inference algorithms such as SWAG achieve the best calibration.

cs.LG↗