arXiv subjects

Francesca Chiaromonte

Publications and source records attributed to Francesca Chiaromonte.

36 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Venture Capital investments through the lens of Network and Functional Data Analysis

In this paper we characterize the performance of venture capital-backed firms based on their ability to attract investment. The aim of the study is to identify relevant predictors of success built from the network structure of firms' and investors' relations. Focusing on deal-level data for the health sector, we first create a bipartite network among firms and investors, and then apply functional data analysis (FDA) to derive progressively more refined indicators of success captured by a binary, a scalar and a functional outcome. More specifically, we use different network centrality measures to capture the role of early investments for the success of the firm. Our results, which are robust to different specifications, suggest that success has a strong positive association with centrality measures of the firm and of its large investors, and a weaker but still detectable association with centrality measures of small investors and features describing firms as knowledge bridges. Finally, based on our analyses, success is not associated with firms' and investors' spreading power (harmonic centrality), nor with the tightness of investors' community (clustering coefficient) and spreading ability (VoteRank).

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Can you always reap what you sow? Network and functional data analysis of VC investments in health-tech companies

"Success" of firms in venture capital markets is hard to define, and its determinants are still poorly understood. We build a bipartite network of investors and firms in the healthcare sector, describing its structure and its communities. Then, we characterize "success" introducing progressively more refined definitions, and we find a positive association between such definitions and the centrality of a company. In particular, we are able to cluster funding trajectories of firms into two groups capturing different "success" regimes and to link the probability of belonging to one or the other to their network features (in particular their centrality and the one of their investors). We further investigate this positive association by introducing scalar as well as functional "success" outcomes, confirming our findings and their robustness.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Epsilon Consistent Mixup: Structural Regularization with an Adaptive Consistency-Interpolation Tradeoff

In this paper we propose $ε$-Consistent Mixup ($ε$mu). $ε$mu is a data-based structural regularization technique that combines Mixup's linear interpolation with consistency regularization in the Mixup direction, by compelling a simple adaptive tradeoff between the two. This learnable combination of consistency and interpolation induces a more flexible structure on the evolution of the response across the feature space and is shown to improve semi-supervised classification accuracy on the SVHN and CIFAR10 benchmark datasets, yielding the largest gains in the most challenging low label-availability scenarios. Empirical studies comparing $ε$mu and Mixup are presented and provide insight into the mechanisms behind $ε$mu's effectiveness. In particular, $ε$mu is found to produce more accurate synthetic labels and more confident predictions than Mixup.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Doubly Robust Feature Selection with Mean and Variance Outlier Detection and Oracle Properties

We propose a general approach to handle data contaminations that might disrupt the performance of feature selection and estimation procedures for high-dimensional linear models. Specifically, we consider the co-occurrence of mean-shift and variance-inflation outliers, which can be modeled as additional fixed and random components, respectively, and evaluated independently. Our proposal performs feature selection while detecting and down-weighting variance-inflation outliers, detecting and excluding mean-shift outliers, and retaining non-outlying cases with full weights. Feature selection and mean-shift outlier detection are performed through a robust class of nonconcave penalization methods. Variance-inflation outlier detection is based on the penalization of the restricted posterior mode. The resulting approach satisfies a robust oracle property for feature selection in the presence of data contamination -- which allows the number of features to exponentially increase with the sample size -- and detects truly outlying cases of each type with asymptotic probability one. This provides an optimal trade-off between a high breakdown point and efficiency. Computationally efficient heuristic procedures are also presented. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our proposal through an extensive simulation study and a real-world application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy

In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different geographic scales, we investigate the relationship between human mobility, which subsumes many facets of the population's response to the changing situation, and the spread of COVID-19. Leveraging mobile phone data from February through September 2020, we find a striking relationship between the decrease in mobility flows and the net reproduction number. We find that the time needed to switch off mobility and bring the net reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1 is about one week. Moreover, we observe a strong relationship between the number of days spent above such threshold before the lockdown-induced drop in mobility flows and the total number of infections per 100k inhabitants. Estimating the statistical effect of mobility flows on the net reproduction number over time, we document a 2-week lag positive association, strong in March and April, and weaker but still significant in June. Our study demonstrates the value of big mobility data to monitor the epidemic and inform control interventions during its unfolding.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Knowledge and Social Relatedness Shape Research Portfolio Diversification

Scientific discovery is shaped by scientists' choices and thus by their career patterns. The increasing knowledge required to work at the frontier of science makes it harder for an individual to embark on unexplored paths. Yet collaborations can reduce learning costs -- albeit at the expense of increased coordination costs. In this article, we use data on the publication histories of a very large sample of physicists to measure the effects of knowledge and social relatedness on their diversification strategies. Using bipartite networks, we compute a measure of topics similarity and a measure of social proximity. We find that scientists' strategies are not random, and that they are significantly affected by both. Knowledge relatedness across topics explains $\approx 10\%$ of logistic regression deviances and social relatedness as much as $\approx 30\%$, suggesting that science is an eminently social enterprise: when scientists move out of their core specialization, they do so through collaborations. Interestingly, we also find a significant negative interaction between knowledge and social relatedness, suggesting that the farther scientists move from their specialization, the more they rely on collaborations. Our results provide a starting point for broader quantitative analyses of scientific diversification strategies, which could also be extended to the domain of technological innovation -- offering insights from a comparative and policy perspective.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The shapes of an epidemic: using Functional Data Analysis to characterize COVID-19 in Italy

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and resolution of the data available from public sources, we pinpoint significant trends exploiting information in curves and shapes with Functional Data Analysis techniques. These depict two starkly different epidemics; an "exponential" one unfolding in Lombardia and the worst hit areas of the north, and a milder, "flat(tened)" one in the rest of the country -- including Veneto, where cases appeared concurrently with Lombardia but aggressive testing was implemented early on. We find that mobility and positivity can predict COVID-19 mortality, also when controlling for relevant covariates. Among the latter, primary care appears to mitigate mortality, and contacts in hospitals, schools and work places to aggravate it. The techniques we describe could capture additional and potentially sharper signals if applied to richer data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Simultaneous Feature Selection and Outlier Detection with Optimality Guarantees

Sparse estimation methods capable of tolerating outliers have been broadly investigated in the last decade. We contribute to this research considering high-dimensional regression problems contaminated by multiple mean-shift outliers which affect both the response and the design matrix. We develop a general framework for this class of problems and propose the use of mixed-integer programming to simultaneously perform feature selection and outlier detection with provably optimal guarantees. We characterize the theoretical properties of our approach, i.e. a necessary and sufficient condition for the robustly strong oracle property, which allows the number of features to exponentially increase with the sample size; the optimal estimation of the parameters; and the breakdown point of the resulting estimates. Moreover, we provide computationally efficient procedures to tune integer constraints and to warm-start the algorithm. We show the superior performance of our proposal compared to existing heuristic methods through numerical simulations and an application investigating the relationships between the human microbiome and childhood obesity.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Probabilistic $K$-mean with local alignment for clustering and motif discovery in functional data

We develop a new method to locally cluster curves and discover functional motifs, i.e.~typical ``shapes'' that may recur several times along and across the curves capturing important local characteristics. In order to identify these shared curve portions, our method leverages ideas from functional data analysis (joint clustering and alignment of curves), bioinformatics (local alignment through the extension of high similarity seeds) and fuzzy clustering (curves belonging to more than one cluster, if they contain more than one typical ``shape''). It can employ various dissimilarity measures and incorporate derivatives in the discovery process, thus exploiting complex facets of shapes. We demonstrate the performance of our method with an extensive simulation study, and show how it generalizes other clustering methods for functional data. Finally, we provide real data applications to Berkeley growth data, Italian Covid-19 death curves and ``Omics'' data related to mutagenesis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

An Efficient Semi-smooth Newton Augmented Lagrangian Method for Elastic Net

Feature selection is an important and active research area in statistics and machine learning. The Elastic Net is often used to perform selection when the features present non-negligible collinearity or practitioners wish to incorporate additional known structure. In this article, we propose a new Semi-smooth Newton Augmented Lagrangian Method to efficiently solve the Elastic Net in ultra-high dimensional settings. Our new algorithm exploits both the sparsity induced by the Elastic Net penalty and the sparsity due to the second order information of the augmented Lagrangian. This greatly reduces the computational cost of the problem. Using simulations on both synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms its best competitors by at least an order of magnitude in terms of CPU time. We also apply our approach to a Genome Wide Association Study on childhood obesity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the phase 2 of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively, voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates - if and when they want, for specific aims - with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

MIP-BOOST: Efficient and Effective $L_0$ Feature Selection for Linear Regression

Recent advances in mathematical programming have made Mixed Integer Optimization a competitive alternative to popular regularization methods for selecting features in regression problems. The approach exhibits unquestionable foundational appeal and versatility, but also poses important challenges. Here we propose MIP-BOOST, a revision of standard Mixed Integer Programming feature selection that reduces the computational burden of tuning the critical sparsity bound parameter and improves performance in the presence of feature collinearity and of signals that vary in nature and strength. The final outcome is a more efficient and effective $L_0$ Feature Selection method for applications of realistic size and complexity, grounded on rigorous cross-validation tuning and exact optimization of the associated Mixed Integer Program. Computational viability and improved performance in realistic scenarios is achieved through three independent but synergistic proposals.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

On the bias of H-scores for comparing biclusters, and how to correct it

In the last two decades several biclustering methods have been developed as new unsupervised learning techniques to simultaneously cluster rows and columns of a data matrix. These algorithms play a central role in contemporary machine learning and in many applications, e.g. to computational biology and bioinformatics. The H-score is the evaluation score underlying the seminal biclustering algorithm by Cheng and Church, as well as many other subsequent biclustering methods. In this paper, we characterize a potentially troublesome bias in this score, that can distort biclustering results. We prove, both analytically and by simulation, that the average H-score increases with the number of rows/columns in a bicluster. This makes the H-score, and hence all algorithms based on it, biased towards small clusters. Based on our analytical proof, we are able to provide a straightforward way to correct this bias, allowing users to accurately compare biclusters.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Composite likelihood inference in a discrete latent variable model for two-way "clustering-by-segmentation" problems

We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or segments, along the other (e.g. consecutively ordered times or locations). The model relies on a hidden Markov structure but, given its complexity, cannot be estimated by full maximum likelihood. We therefore introduce composite likelihood methodology based on considering different subsets of the data. The proposed approach is illustrated by simulation, and with an application to genomic data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Linear Contour Learning: A Method for Supervised Dimension Reduction

We propose a novel approach to sufficient dimension reduction in regression, based on estimating contour directions of negligible variation for the response surface. These directions span the orthogonal complement of the minimal space relevant for the regression, and can be extracted according to a measure of the variation in the response, leading to General Contour Regression(GCR). In comparison to exiisting sufficient dimension reduction techniques, this sontour-based mothology guarantees exhaustive estimation of the central space under ellipticity of the predictoor distribution and very mild additional assumptions, while maintaining vn-consisytency and somputational ease. Moreover, it proves to be robust to departures from ellipticity. We also establish some useful population properties for GCR. Simulations to compare performance with that of standard techniques such as ordinary least squares, sliced inverse regression, principal hessian directions, and sliced average variance estimation confirm the advntages anticipated by theoretical analyses. We also demonstrate the use of contour-based methods on a data set concerning grades of students from Massachusetts colleges.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

An attraction-repulsion point process model for respiratory syncytial virus infections

How is the progression of a virus influenced by properties intrinsic to individual cells? We address this question by studying the susceptibility of cells infected with two strains of the human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV-A and RSV-B) in an in vitro experiment. Spatial patterns of infected cells give us insight into how local conditions influence susceptibility to the virus. We observe a complicated attraction and repulsion behavior, a tendency for infected cells to lump together or remain apart. We develop a new spatial point process model to describe this behavior. Inference on spatial point processes is difficult because the likelihood functions of these models contain intractable normalizing constants; we adapt an MCMC algorithm called double Metropolis-Hastings to overcome this computational challenge. Our methods are computationally efficient even for large point patterns consisting of over 10,000 points. We illustrate the application of our model and inferential approach to simulated data examples and fit our model to various RSV experiments. Because our model parameters are easy to interpret, we are able to draw meaningful scientific conclusions from the fitted models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

A general theory for nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction: Formulation and estimation

In this paper we introduce a general theory for nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction, and explore its ramifications and scope. This theory subsumes recent work employing reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, and reveals many parallels between linear and nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction. Using these parallels we analyze the properties of existing methods and develop new ones. We begin by characterizing dimension reduction at the general level of $σ$-fields and proceed to that of classes of functions, leading to the notions of sufficient, complete and central dimension reduction classes. We show that, when it exists, the complete and sufficient class coincides with the central class, and can be unbiasedly and exhaustively estimated by a generalized sliced inverse regression estimator (GSIR). When completeness does not hold, this estimator captures only part of the central class. However, in these cases we show that a generalized sliced average variance estimator (GSAVE) can capture a larger portion of the class. Both estimators require no numerical optimization because they can be computed by spectral decomposition of linear operators. Finally, we compare our estimators with existing methods by simulation and on actual data sets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2005

Contour regression: A general approach to dimension reduction

We propose a novel approach to sufficient dimension reduction in regression, based on estimating contour directions of small variation in the response. These directions span the orthogonal complement of the minimal space relevant for the regression and can be extracted according to two measures of variation in the response, leading to simple and general contour regression (SCR and GCR) methodology. In comparison with existing sufficient dimension reduction techniques, this contour-based methodology guarantees exhaustive estimation of the central subspace under ellipticity of the predictor distribution and mild additional assumptions, while maintaining \sqrtn-consistency and computational ease. Moreover, it proves robust to departures from ellipticity. We establish population properties for both SCR and GCR, and asymptotic properties for SCR. Simulations to compare performance with that of standard techniques such as ordinary least squares, sliced inverse regression, principal Hessian directions and sliced average variance estimation confirm the advantages anticipated by the theoretical analyses. We demonstrate the use of contour-based methods on a data set concerning soil evaporation.

math.ST↗