arXiv subjects

Francesca Cibrario

Publications and source records attributed to Francesca Cibrario.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A QUBO-Based Optimization Framework for ATM Cash Replenishment Scheduling

The management of cash replenishment in Automated Teller Machine (ATM) networks requires scheduling recharges in order to minimize operational costs while maintaining high service levels and avoiding cash-outs, under uncertain and time-varying withdrawal demand. This work formulates the ATM cash replenishment problem through a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) model, which naturally captures nonlinear cost interactions, while incorporating operational constraints through penalty terms. The objective function combines fixed and variable replenishment costs with co-location discounts, as well as penalties for a late replenishment that could cause a service interruption. The resulting QUBO instances are solved using MegaQUBO, a GPU-accelerated QUBO solver. An empirical evaluation on a real dataset of 276 ATMs located in Italy, covering four representative months of 2022 (April, May, October, and November), benchmarks the proposed approach against a threshold-based operational policy. Results show consistent cost reductions of approximately 15%-18% while maintaining an excellent average service level (around 99.8%-99.9). Overall, the study demonstrates that QUBO-based optimization, coupled with GPU-based solving, can provide a practically deployable decision-support tool for large-scale ATM cash logistics.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Digital Quantum Reservoir Computing for ATM Time Series Prediction

We investigate a digital quantum reservoir computing (QRC) framework for multi-step forecasting of automated teller machine (ATM) cash demand time series on near-term quantum devices. The proposed approach uses parametrized four-qubit reservoirs with a fixed structure exploiting partial measurement and reset, where temporal data is encoded in rotation angles. Training is restricted to a classical Ridge-regression readout. We systematically analyze the impact of the circuit ansatz\"e, reservoir memory, measurement-derived observables, and the execution backend on the forecasting performance. Experiments are performed with noiseless simulation, noise-aware emulation, and a real IQM Spark quantum processor. Although the QRC models do not outperform the classical Prophet benchmark in terms of Mean Absolute Error and Normalized Mean Squared Error metrics, they achieve more competitive results in Dynamic Time Warping metric, indicating a partial ability to capture temporal structure. These findings provide an empirical assessment of digital QRC for realistic financial forecasting and highlight both its current limitations and its potential on near-term quantum hardware.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

A new approach to rating scale definition with quantum-inspired optimization

In finance, assessing the creditworthiness of loan applicants requires lenders to cluster borrowers using rating scales. Financial institutions must define the scales in compliance with strict institutional constraints, resulting in solving a complex combinatorial constrained optimization problem. This contribution studies how to solve this problem using a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) model, a formulation suitable for quantum hardware. We validate this approach by testing the proposed formulation with classical heuristics. We then benchmark the results against a brute-force method to demonstrate consistent solution quality and highlight the framework's suitability for more complex scenarios.

cs.ET↗

arXiv2026

Quantum Circuit-Based Adaptation for Credit Risk Analysis

Noisy and Intermediate-Scale Quantum, or NISQ, processors are sensitive to noise, prone to quantum decoherence, and are not yet capable of continuous quantum error correction for fault-tolerant quantum computation. Hence, quantum algorithms designed in the pre-faulttolerant era cannot neglect the noisy nature of the hardware, and investigating the relationship between quantum hardware performance and the output of quantum algorithms is essential. In this work, we experimentally study how hardware-aware variational quantum circuits on a superconducting quantum processing unit can model distributions relevant to specific use-case applications for Credit Risk Analysis, e.g., standard Gaussian distributions for latent factor loading in the Gaussian Conditional- Independence model. We use a transpilation technique tailored to the specific quantum hardware topology, which minimizes gate depth and connectivity violations, and we calibrate the gate rotations of the circuit to achieve an optimized output from quantum algorithms. Our results demonstrate the viability of quantum adaptation on a small scale, proof-of-concept model inspired by financial applications and offer a good starting point for understanding the practical use of NISQ devices.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Quantum Reservoir Computing for Credit Card Default Prediction on a Neutral Atom Platform

In this paper, we define and benchmark a hybrid quantum-classical machine learning pipeline by performing a binary classification task applied to a real-world financial use case. Specifically, we implement a Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC) layer within a classical routine that includes data preprocessing and binary classification. The reservoir layer has been executed on QuEra's Aquila, a 256-qubit neutral atom simulator, using two different types of encoding: position and local detuning. In the former case, classical data are encoded into the relative distance between atoms; in the latter, into pulse amplitudes. The developed pipeline is applied to predict credit card defaults using a public dataset and a wide variety of traditional classifiers. The results are compared with a fully-classical pipeline including a Deep Neural Network (DNN) model. Additionally, the impact of hardware noise on classification performance is evaluated by comparing the results obtained using Aquila within the classification workflow with those obtained using a classical, noiseless emulation of the quantum system. The results indicate that the noiseless emulation achieves competitive performance with the fully-classical pipeline, while noise significantly degrades overall performance. Although the results for this specific use case are comparable to those of the classical benchmark, the flexibility and scalability of QRC highlight strong potential for a wide range of applications.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Autocallable Options Pricing with Integration-Based Exponential Amplitude Loading

We present a comprehensive quantum algorithm tailored for pricing autocallable options, offering a full implementation and experimental validation. Our experiments include simulations conducted on high-performance computing (HPC) hardware, along with an empirical analysis of convergence to the classically estimated value. Our key innovation is an improved integration-based exponential amplitude loading technique that reduces circuit depth compared to state-of-the-art approaches. A detailed complexity analysis in a relevant setting shows an approximately 50x reduction in T-depth for the payoff component relative to previous methods. These contributions represent a step toward more efficient quantum approaches to pricing complex financial derivatives.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Implementing Credit Risk Analysis with Quantum Singular Value Transformation

The analysis of credit risk is crucial for the efficient operation of financial institutions. Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) offers the potential for a quadratic speed-up over classical methods used to estimate metrics such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). However, numerous limitations remain in efficiently scaling the implementation of quantum circuits that solve these estimation problems. One of the main challenges is the use of costly and restrictive arithmetic that must be implemented within the quantum circuit. In this paper, we propose using Quantum Singular Value Transformation (QSVT) to significantly reduce the cost of implementing the state preparation operator, which underlies QAE for credit risk analysis. We also present an end-to-end code implementation and the results of a simulation study to validate the proposed approach and demonstrate its benefits.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Securities Transaction Settlement Optimization on superconducting quantum devices

We describe a quantum variational algorithm for securities transactions settlement optimization, based on a novel mathematical formalization of the problem that includes the most relevant constraints considered in the pan-European securities settlement platform TARGET2-Securities. The proposed algorithm is designed for Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum devices, specifically targeting IBM's superconducting qubit machines. We adopt non-linear activation functions to encode inequality constraints in the objective function of the problem, and design customized noise mitigation techniques to alleviate the effect of readout errors. We consider batches of up to 40 trades obtained from real transactional data to benchmark our algorithm on quantum hardware against classical and quantum-inspired solvers.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Quantum Amplitude Loading for Rainbow Options Pricing

This work introduces a novel approach to price rainbow options, a type of path-independent multi-asset derivatives, with quantum computers. Leveraging the Iterative Quantum Amplitude Estimation method, we present an end-to-end quantum circuit implementation, emphasizing efficiency by delaying the transition to price space. Moreover, we analyze two different amplitude loading techniques for handling exponential functions. Experiments on the IBM QASM simulator validate our quantum pricing model, contributing to the evolving field of quantum finance.

quant-ph↗