arXiv subjects

Francesca Romana Crucinio

Publications and source records attributed to Francesca Romana Crucinio.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Overcoming Model Misspecification in Bayesian Inference of Molecular Signalling Networks

Bayesian inference of molecular signalling networks usually relies on tractability of the marginal likelihood, enabling the set of possible networks to be efficiently explored. As such, linear models with independent errors and conjugate priors are routinely used. However, the dynamics of molecular signalling are nonlinear, and relevant confounders are often unobserved; failure to account for these complexities will almost certainly lead to over-confident inferences in the standard Bayesian framework. To confront this reality, we develop a post-Bayesian approach to inference of molecular signalling networks, guided by the principle that uncertainty should not vanish when the statistical model is misspecified, even in the infinite-data limit. Technically, we extend the predictively-oriented (PrO) posterior of McLatchie et al. (2025) to the setting of latent variable models, empirically investigating the properties of PrO posteriors in the challenging network inference context.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

An operator splitting analysis of Wasserstein--Fisher--Rao gradient flows

Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) gradient flows have been recently proposed as a powerful sampling tool that combines the advantages of pure Wasserstein (W) and pure Fisher-Rao (FR) gradient flows. Existing algorithmic developments implicitly make use of operator splitting techniques to numerically approximate the WFR partial differential equation, whereby the W flow is evaluated over a given step size and then the FR flow (or vice versa). This works investigates the impact of the order in which the W and FR operator are evaluated and aims to provide a quantitative analysis. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that with a judicious choice of step size and operator ordering, the split scheme can converge to the target distribution faster than the exact WFR flow (in terms of model time). We obtain variational formulae describing the evolution over one time step of both splitting schemes and investigate in which settings the W-FR split should be preferred to the FR-W split. As a step towards this goal we show that the WFR gradient flow preserves log-concavity and obtain the first sharp decay bound for WFR flow.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Preservation of Log-Concavity and Convergence of Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao Gradient Flows

We study the convergence of Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) gradient flows for sampling from probability distributions known up to a normalisation constant. By combining Wasserstein transport with Fisher-Rao birth-death dynamics, WFR flows balance exploration and selection. These flows have been recognised as a promising mechanism to accelerate convergence beyond Langevin dynamics. We show that for a class of strongly log-concave target distributions satisfying additional curvature conditions, WFR flows preserve strong log-concavity, in contrast to Wasserstein flows which enjoy this property only in the Gaussian setting. Exploiting this result, we derive explicit non-asymptotic convergence rates for the symmetrised Kullback-Leibler divergence, without requiring a warm-start as required in current estimates. In particular, we show that the convergence rate decomposes additively into Wasserstein and Fisher-Rao contributions, thereby confirming a recent conjecture within this setting. These results provide refined convergence guarantees and further develop the theoretical foundations of WFR gradient flows for sampling and Bayesian inference.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A note on the unique properties of the Kullback--Leibler divergence for sampling via gradient flows

We consider the problem of sampling from a probability distribution $π$ which admits a density w.r.t. a dominating measure. It is well known that this can be written as an optimisation problem over the space of probability distributions in which we aim to minimise a divergence from $π$. The optimisation problem is normally solved through gradient flows in the space of probability distributions with an appropriate metric. We show that the Kullback--Leibler divergence is the only divergence in the family of Bregman divergences whose gradient flow w.r.t. many popular metrics does not require knowledge of the normalising constant of $π$.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Properties and limitations of geometric tempering for gradient flow dynamics

We consider the problem of sampling from a probability distribution $π$. It is well known that this can be written as an optimisation problem over the space of probability distributions in which we aim to minimise the Kullback--Leibler divergence from $π$. We consider the effect of replacing $π$ with a sequence of moving targets $(π_t)_{t\ge0}$ defined via geometric tempering on the Wasserstein and Fisher--Rao gradient flows. We show that convergence occurs exponentially in continuous time, providing novel bounds in both cases. We also consider popular time discretisations and explore their convergence properties. We show that in the Fisher--Rao case, replacing the target distribution with a geometric mixture of initial and target distribution never leads to a convergence speed up both in continuous time and in discrete time. Finally, we explore the gradient flow structure of tempered dynamics and derive novel adaptive tempering schedules.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithm for Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation

We develop a class of interacting particle systems for implementing a maximum marginal likelihood estimation (MMLE) procedure to estimate the parameters of a latent variable model. We achieve this by formulating a continuous-time interacting particle system which can be seen as a Langevin diffusion over an extended state space of parameters and latent variables. In particular, we prove that the parameter marginal of the stationary measure of this diffusion has the form of a Gibbs measure where number of particles acts as the inverse temperature parameter in classical settings for global optimisation. Using a particular rescaling, we then prove geometric ergodicity of this system and bound the discretisation error in a manner that is uniform in time and does not increase with the number of particles. The discretisation results in an algorithm, termed Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithm (IPLA) which can be used for MMLE. We further prove nonasymptotic bounds for the optimisation error of our estimator in terms of key parameters of the problem, and also extend this result to the case of stochastic gradients covering practical scenarios. We provide numerical experiments to illustrate the empirical behaviour of our algorithm in the context of logistic regression with verifiable assumptions. Our setting provides a straightforward way to implement a diffusion-based optimisation routine compared to more classical approaches such as the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm, and allows for especially explicit nonasymptotic bounds.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling for conditional tests: A link between permutation tests and algebraic statistics

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first algorithm is based on the MCMC sampling described by Sturmfels. The second MCMC sampling consists in a more efficient algorithm which exploits the optimal partition of the conditional space into orbits of permutations. We thus establish a link between standard permutation and algebraic-statistics-based sampling. Through a simulation study we compare the exact cumulative distribution function (cdf) with the approximated cdfs which are obtained with the two MCMC samplings and the standard permutation sampling. We conclude that the MCMC sampling which exploits the partition of the conditional space into orbits of permutations gives an estimated cdf, under $H_0$, which is more reliable and converges to the exact cdf with the least steps. This sampling technique can also be used to build an approximation of the exact cdf when its exact computation is computationally infeasible.

stat.CO↗