arXiv subjects

Francesco Bertolino

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Bertolino.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-order and Skewed approximations

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order asymptotic approximations and skewed approximations for univariate posterior distributions, also in the presence of nuisance parameters, demonstrating improved accuracy in capturing posterior shape with little additional computational cost over simple first-order approximations. For the third-order approximations, connections to frequentist inference via matching priors are highlighted. Moreover, the definition of the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure and the proposed methodology are extended to the multivariate setting, employing tractable skew-normal posterior approximations obtained via derivative matching at the mode. Accurate multivariate approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure are then derived by defining credible regions based on the Optimal Transport map, that transforms the skew-normal approximation to a standard multivariate normal distribution. The performance and practical benefits of these higher-order and skewed approximations are illustrated through two examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Comparison of two coefficients of variation: a new Bayesian approach

The coefficient of variation is a useful indicator for comparing the spread of values between dataset with different units or widely different means. In this paper we address the problem of investigating the equality of the coefficients of variation from two independent populations. In order to do this we rely on the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure recently introduced in the literature. Computing this Bayesian measure of evidence is straightforward when the coefficient of variation is a function of a single parameter of the distribution. In contrast, it becomes difficult when it is a function of more parameters, often requiring the use of MCMC methods. We calculate the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure by considering a variety of distributions whose coefficients of variation depend on more than one parameter. We consider also applications to real data. As far as we know, some of the examined problems have not yet been covered in the literature.

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arXiv2022

A new Bayesian discrepancy measure

The aim of this article is to make a contribution to the Bayesian procedure of testing precise hypotheses for parametric models. For this purpose, we define the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure that allows one to evaluate the suitability of a given hypothesis with respect to the available information (prior law and data). To summarise this information, the posterior median is employed, allowing a simple assessment of the discrepancy with a fixed hypothesis. The Bayesian Discrepancy Measure assesses the compatibility of a single hypothesis with the observed data, as opposed to the more common comparative approach where a hypothesis is rejected in favour of a competing hypothesis. The proposed measure of evidence has properties of consistency and invariance. After presenting the definition of the measure for a parameter of interest, both in the absence and in the presence of nuisance parameters, we illustrate some examples showing its conceptual and interpretative simplicity. Finally, we compare the BDT with the Full Bayesian Significance Test, a well-known Bayesian testing procedure for sharp hypotheses.

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