arXiv subjects

Francesco Contino

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Contino.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Revealing design archetypes and flexibility in e-molecule import pathways using Modeling to Generate Alternatives and interpretable machine learning

Given the central role of green e-molecule imports in the European energy transition, many studies optimize import pathways and identify a single cost-optimal solution. However, cost optimality is fragile, as real-world implementation depends on regulatory, spatial, and stakeholder constraints that are difficult to represent in optimization models and can render cost-optimal designs infeasible. To address this limitation, we generate a diverse set of near-cost-optimal alternatives within an acceptable cost margin using Modeling to Generate Alternatives, accounting for unmodeled uncertainties. Interpretable machine learning is then applied to extract insights from the resulting solution space. The approach is applied to hydrogen import pathways considering hydrogen, ammonia, methane, and methanol as carriers. Results reveal a broad near-optimal space with great flexibility: solar, wind, and storage are not strictly required to remain within 10% of the cost optimum. Wind constraints favor solar-storage methanol pathways, while limited storage favors wind-based ammonia or methane pathways.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Identifying Dealbreakers and Robust Policies for the Energy Transition Amid Unexpected Events

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

The energy return on investment of whole energy systems: application to Belgium

Planning the defossilization of energy systems by facilitating high penetration of renewables and maintaining access to abundant and affordable primary energy resources is a nontrivial multi-objective problem. However, so far, most long-term policies to decrease the carbon footprint of our societies consider the cost of the system as the leading indicator in the energy system models. This paper is the first to develop a novel approach by adding the energy return on investment (EROI) to a whole energy system optimization model. We built the database with all EROI technologies and resources considered. In addition, moving away from fossil-based to carbon-neutral energy systems raises the issue of the uncertainty of low-carbon technologies and resource data. Thus, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis to identify the main parameters driving the variations in the EROI of the system. This novel approach can be applied to any energy system, and we use a real-world case study to illustrate the model: the 2035 Belgian energy system for several greenhouse gas emissions targets. The main results are threefold: (i) the EROI of the system decreases from 8.9 to 3.9 when greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 5; (ii) the renewable fuels - mainly imported renewable gas - represent the largest share of the system primary energy mix; (iii) in the sensitivity analysis, the renewable fuels drive 67% of the variation of the EROI of the system for low greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The decrease in the EROI raises questions about meeting the climate targets without adverse socio-economic impact. Most countries rely massively on fossil fuels, and they could encounter an EROI decline when shifting to carbon neutrality. Thus, this study demonstrates the importance of considering other criteria, such as EROI, in energy system models.

eess.SY↗