arXiv subjects

Francesco Donnarumma

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Donnarumma.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multi-Agent Digital Twins for Strategic Decision-Making using Active Inference

Active Inference is an emerging framework providing a quantitative account of behavioral processes in neuroscience and a principled approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Its application to agency problems is natural, offering an autopoietic interpretation of action while addressing classical challenges such as the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Recently, Active Inference has been applied to digital twin scenarios for adaptive and predictive modeling of complex systems. In this work, we extend Active Inference to multi-agent digital twins in which agents interact within a shared environment while maintaining decentralized generative models. Our multi-agent framework features two innovations: (i) contextual inference to improve adaptability in dynamic environments, and (ii) the integration of streaming machine learning within agents' generative structures, enabling tunable goal-oriented behavior while preserving efficiency and scalability. The framework is illustrated through a Cournot competition example, providing a digital twin representation of a socio-economic system and highlighting its potential for coordinated decision-making in multi-agent contexts.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Active Digital Twins via Active Inference

Digital twins are transforming engineering and applied sciences by enabling real-time monitoring, simulation, and predictive analysis of physical systems and processes. However, conventional digital twins rely primarily on passive data assimilation, which limits their adaptability in uncertain and dynamic environments. This paper introduces the active digital twin paradigm, based on active inference. Active inference is a neuroscience-inspired Bayesian framework for probabilistic reasoning and predictive modeling that unifies inference, decision-making, and learning under a single free energy minimization objective. By modeling the dynamics of the coupled physical--digital system as a partially observable Markov decision process, active digital twins autonomously balance pragmatic exploitation (maximizing goal-directed utility) and epistemic exploration (actively resolving uncertainty). As action becomes an integral part of the inference process, active digital twins actively seek information to maintain synchronization with, and learn from their physical counterparts. The proposed framework is assessed through virtual experiments of structural health monitoring and predictive maintenance of a railway bridge. The application showcases the step-by-step construction of a generative model enabling bidirectional perception--action interaction. The results demonstrate that active digital twins exhibit superior exploration capabilities compared to traditional reactive approaches, enabling enhanced autonomy and resilience.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Integrating large language models and active inference to understand eye movements in reading and dyslexia

We present a novel computational model employing hierarchical active inference to simulate reading and eye movements. The model characterizes linguistic processing as inference over a hierarchical generative model, facilitating predictions and inferences at various levels of granularity, from syllables to sentences. Our approach combines the strengths of large language models for realistic textual predictions and active inference for guiding eye movements to informative textual information, enabling the testing of predictions. The model exhibits proficiency in reading both known and unknown words and sentences, adhering to the distinction between lexical and nonlexical routes in dual route theories of reading. Our model therefore provides a novel approach to understand the cognitive processes underlying reading and eye movements, within a predictive processing framework. Furthermore, our model can potentially aid in understanding how maladaptive predictive processing can produce reading deficits associated with dyslexia. As a proof of concept, we show that attenuating the contribution of priors during the reading process leads to incorrect inferences and a more fragmented reading style, characterized by a greater number of shorter saccades, aligning with empirical findings regarding eye movements in dyslexic individuals. In summary, our model represents a significant advancement in comprehending the cognitive processes involved in reading and eye movements, with potential implications for understanding dyslexia in terms of maladaptive inference.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

A computational framework for integrating Predictive processes with evidence Accumulation Models (PAM)

Evidence Accumulation Models (EAMs) have been widely used to investigate speeded decision-making processes, but they have largely neglected the role of predictive processes emphasized by theories of the predictive brain. In this paper, we present the Predictive evidence Accumulation Models (PAM), a novel computational framework that integrates predictive processes into EAMs. Grounded in the "observing the observer" framework, PAM combines models of Bayesian perceptual inference, such as the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter, with three established EAMs (the Diffusion Decision Model, Lognormal Race Model, and Race Diffusion Model) to model decision-making under uncertainty. We validate PAM through parameter recovery simulations, demonstrating its accuracy and computational efficiency across various decision-making scenarios. Additionally, we provide a step-by-step tutorial using real data to illustrate PAM's application and discuss its theoretical implications. PAM represents a significant advancement in the computational modeling of decision-making, bridging the gap between predictive brain theories and EAMs, and offers a promising tool for future empirical research.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Modeling motor control in continuous-time Active Inference: a survey

The way the brain selects and controls actions is still widely debated. Mainstream approaches based on Optimal Control focus on stimulus-response mappings that optimize cost functions. Ideomotor theory and cybernetics propose a different perspective: they suggest that actions are selected and controlled by activating action effects and by continuously matching internal predictions with sensations. Active Inference offers a modern formulation of these ideas, in terms of inferential mechanisms and prediction-error-based control, which can be linked to neural mechanisms of living organisms. This article provides a technical illustration of Active Inference models in continuous time and a brief survey of Active Inference models that solve four kinds of control problems; namely, the control of goal-directed reaching movements, active sensing, the resolution of multisensory conflict during movement and the integration of decision-making and motor control. Crucially, in Active Inference, all these different facets of motor control emerge from the same optimization process - namely, the minimization of Free Energy - and do not require designing separate cost functions. Therefore, Active Inference provides a unitary perspective on various aspects of motor control that can inform both the study of biological control mechanisms and the design of artificial and robotic systems.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2022

Interactive inference: a multi-agent model of cooperative joint actions

We advance a novel computational model of multi-agent, cooperative joint actions that is grounded in the cognitive framework of active inference. The model assumes that to solve a joint task, such as pressing together a red or blue button, two (or more) agents engage in a process of interactive inference. Each agent maintains probabilistic beliefs about the goal of the joint task (e.g., should we press the red or blue button?) and updates them by observing the other agent's movements, while in turn selecting movements that make his own intentions legible and easy to infer by the other agent (i.e., sensorimotor communication). Over time, the interactive inference aligns both the beliefs and the behavioral strategies of the agents, hence ensuring the success of the joint action. We exemplify the functioning of the model in two simulations. The first simulation illustrates a ''leaderless'' joint action. It shows that when two agents lack a strong preference about their joint task goal, they jointly infer it by observing each other's movements. In turn, this helps the interactive alignment of their beliefs and behavioral strategies. The second simulation illustrates a "leader-follower" joint action. It shows that when one agent ("leader") knows the true joint goal, it uses sensorimotor communication to help the other agent ("follower") infer it, even if doing this requires selecting a more costly individual plan. These simulations illustrate that interactive inference supports successful multi-agent joint actions and reproduces key cognitive and behavioral dynamics of "leaderless" and "leader-follower" joint actions observed in human-human experiments. In sum, interactive inference provides a cognitively inspired, formal framework to realize cooperative joint actions and consensus in multi-agent systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Moral decisions in the age of COVID-19: your choices really matter

The moral decisions we make during this period, such as deciding whether to comply with quarantine rules, have unprecedented societal effects. We simulate the "escape from Milan" that occurred on March 7th-8th 2020, when many travelers moved from a high-risk zone (Milan) to southern regions of Italy (Campania and Lazio) immediately after an imminent lockdown was announced. Our simulations show that fewer than 50 active cases might have caused the sudden spread of the virus observed afterwards in these regions. The surprising influence of the actions of few individuals on societal dynamics challenges our cognitive expectations -- as in normal conditions, collective dynamics are rather robust to the decisions of few "cheaters". This situation therefore requires novel educational strategies that increase our awareness and understanding of the unprecedented effects of our individual moral decisions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

A survey on modern trainable activation functions

In neural networks literature, there is a strong interest in identifying and defining activation functions which can improve neural network performance. In recent years there has been a renovated interest of the scientific community in investigating activation functions which can be trained during the learning process, usually referred to as "trainable", "learnable" or "adaptable" activation functions. They appear to lead to better network performance. Diverse and heterogeneous models of trainable activation function have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a survey of these models. Starting from a discussion on the use of the term "activation function" in literature, we propose a taxonomy of trainable activation functions, highlight common and distinctive proprieties of recent and past models, and discuss main advantages and limitations of this type of approach. We show that many of the proposed approaches are equivalent to adding neuron layers which use fixed (non-trainable) activation functions and some simple local rule that constraints the corresponding weight layers.

cs.LG↗