arXiv subjects

Francesco Marchetti

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Marchetti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Weighted Score-Oriented Losses for Temporally Localized Event Prediction

Operational event-detection systems are rarely assessed by pointwise accuracy alone. In anomaly detection, changepoint detection, and warning systems, the utility of an alarm depends on its temporal position relative to an event. This produces a score-loss mismatch. Neural networks are commonly trained with classical loss functions, such as cross-entropy, whereas deployment decisions are obtained by thresholding network predictions, merging alarms through post-processing rules, and evaluating them with event-based metrics defined by detection windows and false-alarm costs. This paper studies a temporally localized specialization of weighted score-oriented loss (wSOL) for event prediction. Starting from score-oriented losses based on expected confusion matrices and from the weighted SOL framework of Marchetti et al., we consider temporal weights that discount near-event false positives and reduce false-negative penalties when an event is preceded by an admissible alarm. The resulting objective is differentiable with respect to the network predictions, and therefore can be optimized by back-propagation. It can be instantiated with balanced accuracy, true skill statistic, F1, critical success index, and related confusion-matrix scores. We evaluate the proposed approach by comparing cross-entropy, unweighted score-oriented loss, and wSOL on three benchmark datasets for time-series event prediction and detection. The results show that wSOL can improve performance when the evaluation utility is localized in time and is not already encoded by the pointwise labels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Kriging via variably scaled kernels

Classical Gaussian processes and Kriging models are commonly based on stationary kernels, whereby correlations between observations depend exclusively on the relative distance between scattered data. While this assumption ensures analytical tractability, it limits the ability of Gaussian processes to represent heterogeneous correlation structures. In this work, we investigate variably scaled kernels as an effective tool for constructing non-stationary Gaussian processes by explicitly modifying the correlation structure of the data. Through a scaling function, variably scaled kernels alter the correlations between data and enable the modeling of targets exhibiting abrupt changes or discontinuities. We analyse the resulting predictive uncertainty via the variably scaled kernel power function and clarify the relationship between variably scaled kernels-based constructions and classical non-stationary kernels. Numerical experiments demonstrate that variably scaled kernels-based Gaussian processes yield improved reconstruction accuracy and provide uncertainty estimates that reflect the underlying structure of the data

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

An accurate flatness measure to estimate the generalization performance of CNN models

Flatness measures based on the spectrum or the trace of the Hessian of the loss are widely used as proxies for the generalization ability of deep networks. However, most existing definitions are either tailored to fully connected architectures, relying on stochastic estimators of the Hessian trace, or ignore the specific geometric structure of modern Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). In this work, we develop a flatness measure that is both exact and architecturally faithful for a broad and practically relevant class of CNNs. We first derive a closed-form expression for the trace of the Hessian of the cross-entropy loss with respect to convolutional kernels in networks that use global average pooling followed by a linear classifier. Building on this result, we then specialize the notion of relative flatness to convolutional layers and obtain a parameterization-aware flatness measure that properly accounts for the scaling symmetries and filter interactions induced by convolution and pooling. Finally, we empirically investigate the proposed measure on families of CNNs trained on standard image-classification benchmarks. The results obtained suggest that the proposed measure can serve as a robust tool to assess and compare the generalization performance of CNN models, and to guide the design of architecture and training choices in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Sobolev Algorithm for Local Smoothness Analysis (SALSA) via Sharp Direct and Inverse Statements

We extend sharp direct and inverse approximation statements for kernel-based methods for finitely smooth kernels, i.e. those whose native spaces are norm-equivalent to Sobolev spaces. In particular, our inverse results are now formulated for a broad class of approximation schemes beyond interpolation, extending existing theory. Building on these results, we propose a novel Sobolev Algorithm for Local Smoothness Analysis (SALSA) for detecting local smoothness properties of target data, including their degree of smoothness and non-smoothness. The method is rigorously grounded based on the sharp direct and inverse statements. Numerical experiments in various settings highlight the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Weak convergence rates for spectral regularization via sampling inequalities

Convergence rates in spectral regularization methods quantify the approximation error in inverse problems as a function of the noise level or the number of sampling points. Classical strong convergence rate results typically rely on source conditions, which are essential for estimating the truncation error. However, in the framework of kernel approximation, the truncation error in the case of Tikhonov regularization can be characterized entirely through sampling inequalities, without invoking source conditions. In this paper, we first generalize sampling inequalities to spectral regularization, and then, by exploiting the connection between inverse problems and kernel approximation, we derive weak convergence rate bounds for inverse problems, independently of source conditions. These weak convergence rates are established and analyzed when the forward operator is compact and uniformly bounded, or the kernel operator is of trace class.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

The Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) on the Simplex

In the supervised binary classification setting, score-oriented losses have been introduced with the aim of optimizing a chosen performance metric directly during the training phase, thus avoiding \textit{a posteriori} threshold tuning. To do this, in their construction, the decision threshold is treated as a random variable provided with a certain \textit{a priori} distribution. In this paper, we use a recently introduced multidimensional threshold-based classification framework to extend such score-oriented losses to multiclass classification, defining the Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) functions. As also demonstrated by several classification experiments, this proposed family of losses is designed to preserve the main advantages observed in the binary setting, such as the direct optimization of the target metric and the robustness to class imbalance, achieving performance comparable to other state-of-the-art loss functions and providing new insights into the interaction between simplex geometry and score-oriented learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multiclass threshold-based classification and model evaluation

In this paper, we introduce a threshold-based framework for multiclass classification that generalizes the standard argmax rule. This is done by replacing the probabilistic interpretation of softmax outputs with a geometric one on the multidimensional simplex, where the classification depends on a multidimensional threshold. This change of perspective enables for any trained classification network an \textit{a posteriori} optimization of the classification score by means of threshold tuning, as usually carried out in the binary setting, thus allowing for a further refinement of the prediction capability of any network. Our experiments show indeed that multidimensional threshold tuning yields performance improvements across various networks and datasets. Moreover, we derive a multiclass ROC analysis based on \emph{ROC clouds} -- the attainable (FPR,TPR) operating points induced by a single multiclass threshold -- and summarize them via a \emph{Distance From Point} (DFP) score to $(0,1)$. This yields a coherent alternative to standard One-vs-Rest (OvR) curves and aligns with the observed tuning gains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Feature Understanding and Sparsity Enhancement via 2-Layered kernel machines (2L-FUSE)

We propose a novel sparsity enhancement strategy for regression tasks, based on learning a data-adaptive kernel metric, i.e., a shape matrix, through 2-Layered kernel machines. The resulting shape matrix, which defines a Mahalanobis-type deformation of the input space, is then factorized via an eigen-decomposition, allowing us to identify the most informative directions in the space of features. This data-driven approach provides a flexible, interpretable and accurate feature reduction scheme. Numerical experiments on synthetic and applications to real datasets of geomagnetic storms demonstrate that our approach achieves minimal yet highly informative feature sets without losing predictive performance.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Multiclass threshold-based classification

In this paper, we introduce a threshold-based framework for multiclass classification that generalizes the standard argmax rule. This is done by replacing the probabilistic interpretation of softmax outputs with a geometric one on the multidimensional simplex, where the classification depends on a multidimensional threshold. This change of perspective enables for any trained classification network an a posteriori optimization of the classification score by means of threshold tuning, as usually carried out in the binary setting. This allows a further refinement of the prediction capability of any network. Moreover, this multidimensional threshold-based setting makes it possible to define score-oriented losses, which are based on the interpretation of the threshold as a random variable. Our experiments show that the multidimensional threshold tuning yields consistent performance improvements across various networks and datasets, and that the proposed multiclass score-oriented losses are competitive with standard loss functions, resembling the advantages observed in the binary case.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Tuning Butterworth filter's parameters in SPECT reconstructions via kernel-based Bayesian optimization with a no-reference image evaluation metric

In Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT), the image reconstruction process involves many tunable parameters that have a significant impact on the quality of the resulting clinical images. Traditional image quality evaluation often relies on expert judgment and full-reference metrics such as MSE and SSIM. However, these approaches are limited by their subjectivity or the need for a ground-truth image. In this paper, we investigate the usage of a no-reference image quality assessment method tailored for SPECT imaging, employing the Perception-based Image QUality Evaluator (PIQUE) score. Precisely, we propose a novel application of PIQUE in evaluating SPECT images reconstructed via filtered backprojection using a parameter-dependent Butterworth filter. For the optimization of filter's parameters, we adopt a kernel-based Bayesian optimization framework grounded in reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory, highlighting the connections to recent greedy approximation techniques. Experimental results in a concrete clinical setting for SPECT imaging show the potential of this optimization approach for an objective and quantitative assessment of image quality, without requiring a reference image.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Depth-based Privileged Information for Boosting 3D Human Pose Estimation on RGB

Despite the recent advances in computer vision research, estimating the 3D human pose from single RGB images remains a challenging task, as multiple 3D poses can correspond to the same 2D projection on the image. In this context, depth data could help to disambiguate the 2D information by providing additional constraints about the distance between objects in the scene and the camera. Unfortunately, the acquisition of accurate depth data is limited to indoor spaces and usually is tied to specific depth technologies and devices, thus limiting generalization capabilities. In this paper, we propose a method able to leverage the benefits of depth information without compromising its broader applicability and adaptability in a predominantly RGB-camera-centric landscape. Our approach consists of a heatmap-based 3D pose estimator that, leveraging the paradigm of Privileged Information, is able to hallucinate depth information from the RGB frames given at inference time. More precisely, depth information is used exclusively during training by enforcing our RGB-based hallucination network to learn similar features to a backbone pre-trained only on depth data. This approach proves to be effective even when dealing with limited and small datasets. Experimental results reveal that the paradigm of Privileged Information significantly enhances the model's performance, enabling efficient extraction of depth information by using only RGB images.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Greedy feature selection: Classifier-dependent feature selection via greedy methods

The purpose of this study is to introduce a new approach to feature ranking for classification tasks, called in what follows greedy feature selection. In statistical learning, feature selection is usually realized by means of methods that are independent of the classifier applied to perform the prediction using that reduced number of features. Instead, greedy feature selection identifies the most important feature at each step and according to the selected classifier. In the paper, the benefits of such scheme are investigated theoretically in terms of model capacity indicators, such as the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension or the kernel alignment, and tested numerically by considering its application to the problem of predicting geo-effective manifestations of the active Sun.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

AI-FLARES: Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data

AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la Comunit\`a Scientifica Nazionale Sole, Sistema Solare ed Esopianeti'' program. The topic addressed by this project was the development and use of computational methods for the analysis of remote sensing space data associated to solar flare emission. This paper overviews the main results obtained by the project, with specific focus on solar flare forecasting, reconstruction of morphologies of the flaring sources, and interpretation of acceleration mechanisms triggered by solar flares.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

3D Pose Nowcasting: Forecast the Future to Improve the Present

Technologies to enable safe and effective collaboration and coexistence between humans and robots have gained significant importance in the last few years. A critical component useful for realizing this collaborative paradigm is the understanding of human and robot 3D poses using non-invasive systems. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a novel vision-based system leveraging depth data to accurately establish the 3D locations of skeleton joints. Specifically, we introduce the concept of Pose Nowcasting, denoting the capability of the proposed system to enhance its current pose estimation accuracy by jointly learning to forecast future poses. The experimental evaluation is conducted on two different datasets, providing accurate and real-time performance and confirming the validity of the proposed method on both the robotic and human scenarios.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

A fast surrogate cross validation algorithm for meshfree RBF collocation approaches

Cross validation is an important tool in the RBF collocation setting, especially for the crucial tuning of the shape parameter related to the radial basis function. In this paper, we define a new efficient surrogate cross validation algorithm, which computes an accurate approximation of the true validation error with much less computational effort with respect to a standard implementation. The proposed scheme is first analyzed and described in details, and then tested in various numerical experiments that confirm its efficiency and effectiveness.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

A comprehensive theoretical framework for the optimization of neural networks classification performance with respect to weighted metrics

In many contexts, customized and weighted classification scores are designed in order to evaluate the goodness of the predictions carried out by neural networks. However, there exists a discrepancy between the maximization of such scores and the minimization of the loss function in the training phase. In this paper, we provide a complete theoretical setting that formalizes weighted classification metrics and then allows the construction of losses that drive the model to optimize these metrics of interest. After a detailed theoretical analysis, we show that our framework includes as particular instances well-established approaches such as classical cost-sensitive learning, weighted cross entropy loss functions and value-weighted skill scores.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Physics-driven machine learning for the prediction of coronal mass ejections' travel times

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing the active Sun. However, more recently CMEs have attracted attention for their impact on space weather, as they are correlated to geomagnetic storms and may induce the generation of Solar Energetic Particles streams. In this space weather framework, the present paper introduces a physics-driven artificial intelligence (AI) approach to the prediction of CMEs travel time, in which the deterministic drag-based model is exploited to improve the training phase of a cascade of two neural networks fed with both remote sensing and in-situ data. This study shows that the use of physical information in the AI architecture significantly improves both the accuracy and the robustness of the travel time prediction.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

More properties of $(\beta,\gamma)$-Chebyshev functions and points

Recently, $(\beta,\gamma)$-Chebyshev functions, as well as the corresponding zeros, have been introduced as a generalization of classical Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind and related roots. They consist of a family of orthogonal functions on a subset of $[-1,1]$, which indeed satisfies a three-term recurrence formula. In this paper we present further properties, which are proven to comply with various results about classical orthogonal polynomials. In addition, we prove a conjecture concerning the Lebesgue constant's behavior related to the roots of $(\beta,\gamma)$-Chebyshev functions in the corresponding orthogonality interval.

math.CA↗