arXiv subjects

Francesco Sannino

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Sannino.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Variant-driven multi-wave pattern of COVID-19 via a Machine Learning analysis of spike protein mutations

Applying a ML approach to the temporal variability of the Spike protein sequence enables us to identify, classify and track emerging virus variants. Our analysis is unbiased, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the variant characteristics, and our results are validated by other informed methods that define variants based on the complete genome. Furthermore, correlating persistent variants of our approach to epidemiological data, we discover that each new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is driven and dominated by a new emerging variant. Our results are therefore indispensable for further studies on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the prediction of evolutionary patterns that determine current and future mutations of the Spike proteins, as well as their diversification and persistence during the viral spread. Moreover, our ML algorithm works as an efficient early warning system for the emergence of new persistent variants that may pose a threat of triggering a new wave of COVID-19. Capable of a timely identification of potential new epidemiological threats when the variant only represents 1% of the new sequences, our ML strategy is a crucial tool for decision makers to define short and long term strategies to curb future outbreaks. The same methodology can be applied to other viral diseases, influenza included, if sufficient sequencing data is available.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2021

Thrust Distribution for 3-Jet Production from $e^+e^-$ Annihilation within the QCD Conformal Window and in QED

We investigate the theoretical predictions for thrust distribution in the electron positron annihilation to three-jets process at NNLO for different values of the number of flavors, $N_f$. To determine the distribution along the entire renormalization group flow from the highest energies to zero energy we consider the number of flavors near the upper boundary of the conformal window. In this regime of number of flavors the theory develops a perturbative infrared interacting fixed point. We then consider also the QED thrust obtained as the limit $N_c \rightarrow 0$ of the number of colors. In this case the low energy limit is governed by an infrared free theory. Using these quantum field theories limits as theoretical laboratories we arrive at an interesting comparison between the Conventional Scale Setting - (CSS) and the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC$_\infty$) methods. We show that within the perturbative regime of the conformal window and also out of the conformal window the PMC$_\infty$ leads to a higher precision, and that reducing the number of flavors, from the upper boundary to the lower boundary, through the phase transition the curves given by the PMC$_\infty$ method preserve with continuity the position of the peak, showing perfect agreement with the experimental data already at NNLO.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

More on the Weak Gravity Conjecture via Convexity of Charged Operators

The Weak Gravity Conjecture has recently been re-formulated in terms of a particle with non-negative self-binding energy. Because of the dual conformal field theory (CFT) formulation in the anti-de Sitter space the conformal dimension $Δ(Q)$ of the lowest-dimension operator with charge Q under some global U(1) symmetry must be a convex function of Q. This property has been conjectured to hold for any (unitary) conformal field theory and generalized to larger global symmetry groups. Here we refine and further test the convex charge conjecture via semiclassical computations for fixed charge sectors of different theories in different dimensions. We analyze the convexity properties of the leading and next-to-leading order terms stemming from the semiclassical computation, de facto, extending previous tests beyond the leading perturbative contributions and to arbitrary charges. In particular, the leading contribution is sufficient to test convexity in the semiclassical computations. We also consider intriguing cases in which the models feature a transition from real to complex conformal dimensions either as a function of the charge or number of matter fields. As a relevant example of the first kind, we investigate the $O(N)$ model in $4+ε$ dimensions. As an example of the second type we consider the $U(N)\times U(M)$ model in $4-ε$ dimensions. Both models display a rich dynamics where, by changing the number of matter fields and/or charge, one can achieve dramatically different physical regimes. We discover that whenever a complex conformal dimension appears, the real part satisfies the convexity property.

hep-th↗

arXiv2021

The field theoretical ABC of epidemic dynamics

Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late 2019. It is therefore imperative to develop efficient mathematical models, able to substantially curb the damages of a pandemic by unveiling disease spreading dynamics and symmetries. This will help inform (non)-pharmaceutical prevention strategies. For the reasons above we wrote this report that goes at the heart of mathematical modelling of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries naturally encoded in the mathematical language of critical phenomena. Our report reviews these approaches and determines their common denominators, relevant for theoretical epidemiology and its link to important concepts in theoretical physics. We show that the different frameworks exhibit common features such as criticality and self-similarity under time rescaling. These features are naturally encoded within the unifying field theoretical approach. The latter leads to an efficient description of the time evolution of the disease via a framework in which (near) time-dilation invariance is explicitly realised. As important test of the relevance of symmetries we show how to mathematically account for observed phenomena such as multi-wave dynamics. The models presented here are of immediate relevance for different realms of scientific enquiry from medical applications to the understanding of human behaviour. Our review offers novel perspectives on how to model, capture, organise and understand epidemiological data and disease dynamics for modelling real-world phenomena.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Nordic vaccination strategies face/off via age range comparative analysis on key indicators of COVID-19 severity and healthcare stress level

In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we analyze factors such as healthcare stress level and severity of disease through new infections, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and deaths. Moreover, we analyze the impact of the various vaccine types, vaccination rate on the spread of the virus in each age group for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden from the start of the vaccination period in December 2020 until the end of August 2021. We perform a three-fold analysis: i) frequency analysis of infections and vaccine rates by age groups, ii) rolling correlations between vaccination strategies, severity of COVID-19 and healthcare stress level and; iii) we also employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework. The latter is used to mathematically model wave structures, as well as the impact of vaccinations on wave dynamics. We further compare the Nordic countries with England. Our main results are the quantification of the impact of the vaccination campaigns on age groups epidemiological data, across countries with high vaccine uptake. The data clearly shows that vaccines markedly reduce the number of new cases and the risk of serious illness.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Effective Mathematical Modelling of Health Passes during a Pandemic

We study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease. Such measures are currently either implemented or at least discussed in numerous countries worldwide to ward off a potential new wave of COVID-19 across Europe. They come in the form of Health Passes (HP), which grant full access to public life only to individuals with a certificate that proves that they have either been fully vaccinated, have recovered from a previous infection or have recently tested negative to SARS-Cov-19 . We develop both a compartmental model as well as an epidemic Renormalisation Group approach, which is capable of describing the dynamics over a longer period of time, notably an entire epidemiological wave. Introducing different versions of HPs in this model, we are capable of providing quantitative estimates on the effectiveness of the underlying measures as a function of the fraction of the population that is vaccinated and the vaccination rate. We apply our models to the latest COVID-19 wave in several European countries, notably Germany and Austria, which validate our theoretical findings.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

More on the cubic versus quartic interaction equivalence in the $O(N)$ model

We compute the scaling dimensions of a family of fixed-charge operators at the infrared fixed point of the $O(N)$ model featuring cubic interactions in $d=6-ε$ for arbitrary $N$ to leading and subleading order in the charge but to all orders in the couplings. The results are used to analyze the conjectured equivalence with the $O(N)$ model displaying quartic interactions at its ultraviolet fixed point. This is performed by comparing the cubic model scaling dimensions against the known large $N$ results for the quartic model and demonstrating that they match. Our results reinforce the conjectured equivalence and further provide novel information on the finite $N$ physics stemming from the computations in the cubic model just below 6 dimensions.

hep-th↗

arXiv2021

Epidemiological theory of virus variants

We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalization Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Naturalness of lepton non-universality and muon g-2

We show that the observed anomalies in the lepton sector can be explained in extensions of the Standard Model that are natural and, therefore, resolve the Higgs sector hierarchy problem. The scale of new physics is around the TeV and Technicolor-like theories are ideal candidate models.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

You better watch out: US COVID-19 wave dynamics versus vaccination strategy

We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Charging the $O(N)$ model

We determine, for the first time, the scaling dimensions of a family of fixed-charge operators stemming from the critical $O(N)$ model in 4-$ε$ dimensions to the leading and next to leading order terms in the charge expansion but to all-orders in the coupling. We test our results to the maximum known order in perturbation theory while determining higher order terms.

hep-th↗

arXiv2021

Untangling scaling dimensions of fixed charge operators in Higgs Theories

We go beyond a systematic review of the semiclassical approaches for determining the scaling dimensions of fixed-charge operators in $U(1)$ and $O(N)$ models by introducing a general strategy apt at determining the relation between a given charge configuration and the associated operators for more involved symmetry groups such as the $U(N) \times U(M)$. We show how, varying the charge configuration, it is possible to access anomalous dimensions of different operators transforming according to a variety of irreducible representations of the non-abelian symmetry group without the aid of diagrammatical computations. We illustrate our computational strategy by determining the anomalous dimensions of several composite operators to the next-to-leading order in the semiclassical expansion for the $U(N) \times U(M)$ conformal field theory (CFT) in $4-ε$ dimensions. Thanks to the powerful interplay between semiclassical methods and group theory we can, for the first time, extract scaling dimensions for a wide range of operators.

hep-th↗

arXiv2021

The free and safe fate of symmetry non-restoration

We investigate the high temperature fate of four dimensional gauge-Yukawa theories featuring short distance conformality of either interacting or non-interacting nature. The latter is known as complete asymptotic freedom and, as templates, we consider non-abelian gauge theories featuring either two singlet scalars coupled to gauged fermions via Yukawa interactions or two gauged scalars with(out) fermions. For theories with interacting fixed points at short distance, known as asymptotically safe, we consider two calculable examples. Exploring the landscape of safe and free theories above we discover a class of complete asymptotically free theories for which symmetry breaks at arbitrary high temperatures. In its minimal form this class is constituted by a theory with two fundamental gauged scalars each gauged under an independent group.

hep-th↗

arXiv2020

Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: How to tame the next wave of infectious diseases

Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the virus diffusion itself. Time-honoured models of the SIR type or others based on complex networks describe well the exponential spread of the disease, but cannot naturally accommodate the wave pattern. Nevertheless, understanding this time-structure is of paramount importance in designing effective prevention measures. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grow linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Mining Google and Apple mobility data: Temporal Anatomy for COVID-19 Social Distancing

We employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Interestingly we observe a general decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction for the European countries and the American states.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Evidence for complex fixed points in pandemic data

Epidemic data show the existence of a region of quasi-linear growth (strolling period) of infected cases extending in between waves. We demonstrate that this constitutes evidence for the existence of near time-scale invariance that is neatly encoded via complex fixed points in the epidemic Renormalisation Group approach. As a result we achieve a deeper understanding of multiple wave dynamics and its inter-wave strolling regime. Our results are tested and calibrated against the COVID-19 pandemic data. Because of the simplicity of our approach that is organised around symmetry principles our discovery amounts to a paradigm shift in the way epidemiological data are mathematically modelled.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Walking Dynamics Guaranteed

We report evidence for a continuous transition from an infrared conformal phase to a chirally broken one in four dimensions. We study a model with two Dirac fermions in the adjoint representation of an SU(2) gauge interaction and a chirally symmetric four-fermion interaction. At large four-fermion coupling, the model goes through a transition into a chirally broken phase and infrared conformality is lost. We show strong evidence that this transition is continuous, which would guarantee walking dynamics within the scaling region in the chirally broken phase.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2020

Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: A Temporal Playbook

A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the world. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.

physics.soc-ph↗