arXiv subjects

Francesco Spinnato

Publications and source records attributed to Francesco Spinnato.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Explainable Failure Prediction Framework for Neural Networks in Radio Access Networks

As 5G networks continue to evolve to deliver high speed, low latency, and reliable communications, ensuring uninterrupted service has become increasingly critical. While millimeter wave (mmWave) frequencies enable gigabit data rates, they are highly susceptible to environmental factors, often leading to radio link failures (RLF). Predictive models leveraging radio and weather data have been proposed to address this issue; however, many operate as black boxes, offering limited transparency for operational deployment. This work bridges that gap by introducing a framework that combines explainability based feature pruning with model refinement. Our framework can be integrated into state of the art predictors such as GNN Transformer and LSTM based architectures for RLF prediction, enabling the development of accurate and explainability guided models in 5G networks. It provides insights into the contribution of input features and the decision making logic of neural networks, leading to lighter and more scalable models. When applied to RLF prediction, our framework unveils that weather data contributes minimally to the forecast in extensive real world datasets, which informs the design of a leaner model with 50 percent fewer parameters and improved F1 scores with respect to the state of the art solution. Ultimately, this work empowers network providers to evaluate and refine their neural network based prediction models for better interpretability, scalability, and performance.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2025

Towards Piece-by-Piece Explanations for Chess Positions with SHAP

Contemporary chess engines offer precise yet opaque evaluations, typically expressed as centipawn scores. While effective for decision-making, these outputs obscure the underlying contributions of individual pieces or patterns. In this paper, we explore adapting SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to the domain of chess analysis, aiming to attribute a chess engines evaluation to specific pieces on the board. By treating pieces as features and systematically ablating them, we compute additive, per-piece contributions that explain the engines output in a locally faithful and human-interpretable manner. This method draws inspiration from classical chess pedagogy, where players assess positions by mentally removing pieces, and grounds it in modern explainable AI techniques. Our approach opens new possibilities for visualization, human training, and engine comparison. We release accompanying code and data to foster future research in interpretable chess AI.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Towards the Formalization of a Trustworthy AI for Mining Interpretable Models explOiting Sophisticated Algorithms

Interpretable-by-design models are crucial for fostering trust, accountability, and safe adoption of automated decision-making models in real-world applications. In this paper we formalize the ground for the MIMOSA (Mining Interpretable Models explOiting Sophisticated Algorithms) framework, a comprehensive methodology for generating predictive models that balance interpretability with performance while embedding key ethical properties. We formally define here the supervised learning setting across diverse decision-making tasks and data types, including tabular data, time series, images, text, transactions, and trajectories. We characterize three major families of interpretable models: feature importance, rule, and instance based models. For each family, we analyze their interpretability dimensions, reasoning mechanisms, and complexity. Beyond interpretability, we formalize three critical ethical properties, namely causality, fairness, and privacy, providing formal definitions, evaluation metrics, and verification procedures for each. We then examine the inherent trade-offs between these properties and discuss how privacy requirements, fairness constraints, and causal reasoning can be embedded within interpretable pipelines. By evaluating ethical measures during model generation, this framework establishes the theoretical foundations for developing AI systems that are not only accurate and interpretable but also fair, privacy-preserving, and causally aware, i.e., trustworthy.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

An Interpretable Data-Driven Unsupervised Approach for the Prevention of Forgotten Items

Accurately identifying items forgotten during a supermarket visit and providing clear, interpretable explanations for recommending them remains an underexplored problem within the Next Basket Prediction (NBP) domain. Existing NBP approaches typically only focus on forecasting future purchases, without explicitly addressing the detection of unintentionally omitted items. This gap is partly due to the scarcity of real-world datasets that allow for the reliable estimation of forgotten items. Furthermore, most current NBP methods rely on black-box models, which lack transparency and limit the ability to justify recommendations to end users. In this paper, we formally introduce the forgotten item prediction task and propose two novel interpretable-by-design algorithms. These methods are tailored to identify forgotten items while offering intuitive, human-understandable explanations. Experiments on a real-world retail dataset show our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art NBP baselines by 10-15% across multiple evaluation metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PYRREGULAR: A Unified Framework for Irregular Time Series, with Classification Benchmarks

Irregular temporal data, characterized by varying recording frequencies, differing observation durations, and missing values, presents significant challenges across fields like mobility, healthcare, and environmental science. Existing research communities often overlook or address these challenges in isolation, leading to fragmented tools and methods. To bridge this gap, we introduce a unified framework, and the first standardized dataset repository for irregular time series classification, built on a common array format to enhance interoperability. This repository comprises 34 datasets on which we benchmark 12 classifier models from diverse domains and communities. This work aims to centralize research efforts and enable a more robust evaluation of irregular temporal data analysis methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MASCOTS: Model-Agnostic Symbolic COunterfactual explanations for Time Series

Counterfactual explanations provide an intuitive way to understand model decisions by identifying minimal changes required to alter an outcome. However, applying counterfactual methods to time series models remains challenging due to temporal dependencies, high dimensionality, and the lack of an intuitive human-interpretable representation. We introduce MASCOTS, a method that leverages the Bag-of-Receptive-Fields representation alongside symbolic transformations inspired by Symbolic Aggregate Approximation. By operating in a symbolic feature space, it enhances interpretability while preserving fidelity to the original data and model. Unlike existing approaches that either depend on model structure or autoencoder-based sampling, MASCOTS directly generates meaningful and diverse counterfactual observations in a model-agnostic manner, operating on both univariate and multivariate data. We evaluate MASCOTS on univariate and multivariate benchmark datasets, demonstrating comparable validity, proximity, and plausibility to state-of-the-art methods, while significantly improving interpretability and sparsity. Its symbolic nature allows for explanations that can be expressed visually, in natural language, or through semantic representations, making counterfactual reasoning more accessible and actionable.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Bag of Receptive Fields for Time Series Extrinsic Predictions

High-dimensional time series data poses challenges due to its dynamic nature, varying lengths, and presence of missing values. This kind of data requires extensive preprocessing, limiting the applicability of existing Time Series Classification and Time Series Extrinsic Regression techniques. For this reason, we propose BORF, a Bag-Of-Receptive-Fields model, which incorporates notions from time series convolution and 1D-SAX to handle univariate and multivariate time series with varying lengths and missing values. We evaluate BORF on Time Series Classification and Time Series Extrinsic Regression tasks using the full UEA and UCR repositories, demonstrating its competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we outline how this representation can naturally provide saliency and feature-based explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Modeling Events and Interactions through Temporal Processes -- A Survey

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate probabilistic models for modeling event sequences through temporal processes. We revise the notion of event modeling and provide the mathematical foundations that characterize the literature on the topic. We define an ontology to categorize the existing approaches in terms of three families: simple, marked, and spatio-temporal point processes. For each family, we systematically review the existing approaches based based on deep learning. Finally, we analyze the scenarios where the proposed techniques can be used for addressing prediction and modeling aspects.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Protocol for Continual Explanation of SHAP

Continual Learning trains models on a stream of data, with the aim of learning new information without forgetting previous knowledge. Given the dynamic nature of such environments, explaining the predictions of these models can be challenging. We study the behavior of SHAP values explanations in Continual Learning and propose an evaluation protocol to robustly assess the change of explanations in Class-Incremental scenarios. We observed that, while Replay strategies enforce the stability of SHAP values in feedforward/convolutional models, they are not able to do the same with fully-trained recurrent models. We show that alternative recurrent approaches, like randomized recurrent models, are more effective in keeping the explanations stable over time.

cs.LG↗