arXiv subjects

Francis Bach

Publications and source records attributed to Francis Bach.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multivariate Standardized Residuals for Conformal Prediction

While split conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, approaching the stronger property of conditional coverage is essential for reliable uncertainty quantification. Naive conformal scores, however, suffer from poor conditional coverage in heteroskedastic settings. In univariate regression, this is commonly addressed by normalizing non-conformity scores using an estimated local score variance. In this work, we propose a natural extension of this normalization to the multivariate setting, effectively whitening the residuals to decouple output correlations and standardize local variance. Furthermore, we derive a sufficient condition characterizing a broad class of distributions for which standardized residuals yield asymptotic conditional coverage. We demonstrate that using the Mahalanobis distance induced by a learned local covariance as a non-conformity score provides a closed-form, computationally efficient mechanism for capturing inter-output correlations and heteroskedasticity, avoiding the expensive sampling required by previous methods based on cumulative distribution functions. This structure unlocks several practical extensions, including the handling of missing output values, the refinement of conformal sets when partial information is revealed, and the construction of valid conformal sets for transformations of the output. Finally, we provide extensive empirical evidence on both synthetic and real-world datasets showing that our approach yields conformal sets that improve upon the conditional coverage of existing multivariate baselines.

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arXiv2026

Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization

Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage is a fundamental challenge in multivariate regression. Standard approaches rely on explicitly estimating the full conditional density and subsequently thresholding it. This two-step plug-in process is notoriously difficult, sensitive to estimation errors, and computationally expensive. One would like to instead optimize the region directly. Formulating a direct solution is challenging, however, because it requires minimizing a volume objective that is coupled with the conditional quantiles of the model's own estimation error. In this work, we address this challenge. We introduce super-level-set regression (SLS), a novel mathematical framework that successfully resolves this implicit coupling, allowing us to directly parameterize and optimize the geometric boundaries of the target conditional level sets. By bypassing full distribution estimation and leveraging flexible volume-preserving frontier functions, our approach natively captures complex, multimodal, and disjoint conditional structures end-to-end. Ultimately, SLS offers a new perspective on multivariate conditional quantile regression, replacing the restrictive assumptions of density-first methods with a direct geometric optimization strategy.

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arXiv2026

Explaining and Preventing Alignment Collapse in Iterative RLHF

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) typically assumes a static or non-strategic reward model (RM). In iterative deployment, however, the policy generates the data on which the RM is retrained, creating a feedback loop. Building on the Stackelberg game formulation of this interaction, we derive an analytical decomposition of the policy's true optimization gradient into a standard policy gradient and a parameter-steering term that captures the policy's influence on the RM's future parameters. We show that standard iterative RLHF, which drops this steering term entirely, suffers from alignment collapse: the policy systematically exploits the RM's blind spots, producing low-quality, high-reward outputs whose feedback reinforces the very errors it exploits. To mitigate this, we propose foresighted policy optimization (FPO), a mechanism-design intervention that restores the missing steering term by regularizing the policy's parameter-steering effect on RM updates. We instantiate FPO via a scalable first-order approximation and demonstrate that it prevents alignment collapse on both controlled environments and an LLM alignment pipeline using Llama-3.2-1B.

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arXiv2026

Convergence Rates for Non-Log-Concave Sampling and Log-Partition Estimation

Sampling from Gibbs distributions and computing their log-partition function are fundamental tasks in statistics, machine learning, and statistical physics. While efficient algorithms are known for log-concave densities, the worst-case non-log-concave setting necessarily suffers from the curse of dimensionality. For many numerical problems, the curse of dimensionality can be alleviated when the target function is smooth, allowing the exponent in the rate to improve linearly with the number of available derivatives. Recently, it has been shown that similarly fast convergence rates can be achieved by efficient optimization algorithms. Since optimization can be seen as the low-temperature limit of sampling from Gibbs distributions, we pose the question of whether similarly fast convergence rates can be achieved for non-log-concave sampling. We first study the information-based complexity of the sampling and log-partition estimation problems and show that the optimal rates for sampling and log-partition computation are sometimes equal and sometimes faster than for optimization. We then analyze various polynomial-time sampling algorithms, including an extension of a recent promising optimization approach, and find that they sometimes exhibit interesting behavior but no near-optimal rates. Our results also give further insights into the relation between sampling, log-partition, and optimization problems.

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arXiv2026

Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Prediction

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either producing overly conservative sets when the coverage level is too high, or empty sets when it is too low. Moreover, the fixed coverage level cannot adapt to the specific characteristics of each individual example, limiting the flexibility and efficiency of these methods. In this work, we leverage recent advances in e-values and post-hoc conformal inference, which allow the use of data-dependent coverage levels while maintaining valid statistical guarantees. We propose to optimize an adaptive coverage policy by training a neural network using a leave-one-out procedure on the calibration set, allowing the coverage level and the resulting prediction set size to vary with the difficulty of each individual example. We support our approach with theoretical coverage guarantees and demonstrate its practical benefits through a series of experiments.

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arXiv2026

Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid geometric assumptions or rely on flexible but computationally expensive approaches that do not explicitly optimize prediction set volume. We propose an optimization-driven framework based on a novel loss function that directly learns minimum-volume covering sets while ensuring valid coverage. This formulation naturally induces a new nonconformity score for conformal prediction, which adapts to the residual distribution and covariates. Our approach optimizes over prediction sets defined by arbitrary norm balls, including single and multi-norm formulations. Additionally, by jointly optimizing both the predictive model and predictive uncertainty, we obtain prediction sets that are tight, informative, and computationally efficient, as demonstrated in our experiments on real-world datasets.

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arXiv2026

Optimal Denoising in Score-Based Generative Models: The Role of Data Regularity

Score-based generative models achieve state-of-the-art sampling performance by denoising a distribution perturbed by Gaussian noise. In this paper, we focus on a single deterministic denoising step, and compare the optimal denoiser for the quadratic loss, we name ''full-denoising'', to the alternative ''half-denoising'' introduced by Hyv{ä}rinen (2025). We show that looking at the performance in terms of distance between distributions tells a more nuanced story, with different assumptions on the data leading to very different conclusions. We prove that half-denoising is better than full-denoising for regular enough densities, while full-denoising is better for singular densities such as mixtures of Dirac measures or densities supported on a low-dimensional subspace. In the latter case, we prove that full-denoising can alleviate the curse of dimensionality under a linear manifold hypothesis.

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arXiv2026

Structured Matrix Scaling for Multi-Class Calibration

Post-hoc recalibration methods are widely used to ensure that classifiers provide faithful probability estimates. We argue that parametric recalibration functions based on logistic regression can be motivated from a simple theoretical setting for both binary and multiclass classification. This insight motivates the use of more expressive calibration methods beyond standard temperature scaling. For multi-class calibration however, a key challenge lies in the increasing number of parameters introduced by more complex models, often coupled with limited calibration data, which can lead to overfitting. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the resulting bias-variance tradeoff can be effectively managed by structured regularization, robust preprocessing and efficient optimization. The resulting methods lead to substantial gains over existing logistic-based calibration techniques. We provide efficient and easy-to-use open-source implementations of our methods, making them an attractive alternative to common temperature, vector, and matrix scaling implementations.

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arXiv2026

StablePCA: Distributionally Robust Learning of Shared Representations from Multi-Source Data

When synthesizing multi-source high-dimensional data, a key objective is to extract low-dimensional representations that effectively approximate the original features across different sources. Such representations facilitate the discovery of transferable structures and help mitigate systematic biases such as batch effects. We introduce Stable Principal Component Analysis (StablePCA), a distributionally robust framework for constructing stable latent representations by maximizing the worst-case explained variance over multiple sources. A primary challenge in extending classical PCA to the multi-source setting lies in the nonconvex rank constraint, which renders the StablePCA formulation a nonconvex optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, we conduct a convex relaxation of StablePCA and develop an efficient Mirror-Prox algorithm to solve the relaxed problem, with global convergence guarantees. Since the relaxed problem generally differs from the original formulation, we further introduce a data-dependent certificate to assess how well the algorithm solves the original nonconvex problem and establish the condition under which the relaxation is tight. Finally, we explore alternative distributionally robust formulations of multi-source PCA based on different loss functions.

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arXiv2026

Exponential Convergence of (Stochastic) Gradient Descent for Separable Logistic Regression

Gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent are central to modern machine learning, yet their behavior under large step sizes remains theoretically unclear. Recent work suggests that acceleration often arises near the edge of stability, where optimization trajectories become unstable and difficult to analyze. Existing results for separable logistic regression achieve faster convergence by explicitly leveraging such unstable regimes through constant or adaptive large step sizes. In this paper, we show that instability is not inherent to acceleration. We prove that gradient descent with a simple, non-adaptive increasing step-size schedule achieves exponential convergence for separable logistic regression under a margin condition, while remaining entirely within a stable optimization regime. The resulting method is anytime and does not require prior knowledge of the optimization horizon or target accuracy. We also establish exponential convergence of stochastic gradient descent using a lightweight adaptive step-size rule that avoids line search and specialized procedures, improving upon existing polynomial-rate guarantees. Together, our results demonstrate that carefully structured step-size growth alone suffices to obtain exponential acceleration for both gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent.

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arXiv2026

Adjusted Scores for Discrete Langevin Algorithms

Sampling from discrete distributions is a ubiquitous task in machine learning, recently revisited by the emergence of discrete diffusion models. While Langevin algorithms constitute the state of the art for continuous spaces, discrete versions lack similar theoretical guarantees when the step-size becomes small. In this paper, we address this limitation by interpreting discrete sampling algorithms as discretizations of continuous-time dynamics on the hypercube. In particular, we describe several score functions for discrete algorithms which result in approximations of Glauber dynamics for the correct target distribution. We also compute upper bounds for the contraction of these algorithms, with or without Metropolis adjustment.

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arXiv2026

Backward Conformal Prediction

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and allows the conformal set size to vary, our approach defines a rule that constrains how prediction set sizes behave based on the observed data, and adapts the coverage level accordingly. Our method builds on two key foundations: (i) recent results by Gauthier et al. [2025] on post-hoc validity using e-values, which ensure marginal coverage of the form $\mathbb{P}(Y_{\rm test} \in \hat C_n^{\tildeα}(X_{\rm test})) \ge 1 - \mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ up to a first-order Taylor approximation for any data-dependent miscoverage $\tildeα$, and (ii) a novel leave-one-out estimator $\hatα^{\rm LOO}$ of the marginal miscoverage $\mathbb{E}[\tildeα]$ based on the calibration set, ensuring that the theoretical guarantees remain computable in practice. This approach is particularly useful in applications where large prediction sets are impractical such as medical diagnosis. We provide theoretical results and empirical evidence supporting the validity of our method, demonstrating that it maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.

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arXiv2026

Two-stage stochastic algorithm for solving large-scale (non)-convex separable optimization problems under affine constraints

We consider nonsmooth optimization problems under affine constraints, where the objective consists of the average of the component functions of a large number $N$ of agents, and we only assume access to the Fenchel conjugate of the component functions. The algorithm of choice for solving such problems is the dual subgradient method, also known as dual decomposition, which requires $O(\frac{1}{ε^2})$ iterations to reach $ε$-optimality in the convex case. However, each iteration requires computing the Fenchel conjugate of each of the $N$ agents, leading to a complexity $O(\frac{N}{ε^2})$ which might be prohibitive in practical applications. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage algorithm, combining a stochastic subgradient algorithm on the dual problem, followed by a block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe algorithm to obtain primal solutions. The resulting algorithm requires only $O(\frac{1}{ε^2} + \frac{N}{ε^{2/3}})$ calls to Fenchel conjugates to obtain an $ε$-optimal primal solution in expectation in the convex case. We extend our results to nonconvex component functions and show that our method still applies and gets (almost) the same convergence rate, this time only to an approximate primal solution recovering the classical duality gap bounds usually obtained using the Shapley-Folkman theorem.

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arXiv2026

Statistical Analysis of Conditional Group Distributionally Robust Optimization with Cross-Entropy Loss

In multi-source learning with discrete labels, distributional heterogeneity across domains poses a central challenge to developing predictive models that transfer reliably to unseen domains. We study multi-source unsupervised domain adaptation, where labeled data are available from multiple source domains and only unlabeled data are observed from the target domain. To address potential distribution shifts, we propose a novel Conditional Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (CG-DRO) framework that learns a classifier by minimizing the worst-case cross-entropy loss over the convex combinations of the conditional outcome distributions from sources domains. We develop an efficient Mirror Prox algorithm for solving the minimax problem and employ a double machine learning procedure to estimate the risk function, ensuring that errors in nuisance estimation contribute only at higher-order rates. We establish fast statistical convergence rates for the empirical CG-DRO estimator by constructing two surrogate minimax optimization problems that serve as theoretical bridges. A distinguishing challenge for CG-DRO is the emergence of nonstandard asymptotics: the empirical CG-DRO estimator may fail to converge to a standard limiting distribution due to boundary effects and system instability. To address this, we introduce a perturbation-based inference procedure that enables uniformly valid inference, including confidence interval construction and hypothesis testing.

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arXiv2025

A Convex Loss Function for Set Prediction with Optimal Trade-offs Between Size and Conditional Coverage

We consider supervised learning problems in which set predictions provide explicit uncertainty estimates. Using Choquet integrals (a.k.a. Lov{á}sz extensions), we propose a convex loss function for nondecreasing subset-valued functions obtained as level sets of a real-valued function. This loss function allows optimal trade-offs between conditional probabilistic coverage and the ''size'' of the set, measured by a non-decreasing submodular function. We also propose several extensions that mimic loss functions and criteria for binary classification with asymmetric losses, and show how to naturally obtain sets with optimized conditional coverage. We derive efficient optimization algorithms, either based on stochastic gradient descent or reweighted least-squares formulations, and illustrate our findings with a series of experiments on synthetic datasets for classification and regression tasks, showing improvements over approaches that aim for marginal coverage.

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arXiv2025

Convergence of Shallow ReLU Networks on Weakly Interacting Data

We analyse the convergence of one-hidden-layer ReLU networks trained by gradient flow on $n$ data points. Our main contribution leverages the high dimensionality of the ambient space, which implies low correlation of the input samples, to demonstrate that a network with width of order $\log(n)$ neurons suffices for global convergence with high probability. Our analysis uses a Polyak-Łojasiewicz viewpoint along the gradient-flow trajectory, which provides an exponential rate of convergence of $\frac{1}{n}$. When the data are exactly orthogonal, we give further refined characterizations of the convergence speed, proving its asymptotic behavior lies between the orders $\frac{1}{n}$ and $\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}$, and exhibiting a phase-transition phenomenon in the convergence rate, during which it evolves from the lower bound to the upper, and in a relative time of order $\frac{1}{\log(n)}$.

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arXiv2025

Convergence of Deterministic and Stochastic Diffusion-Model Samplers: A Simple Analysis in Wasserstein Distance

We provide new convergence guarantees in Wasserstein distance for diffusion-based generative models, covering both stochastic (DDPM-like) and deterministic (DDIM-like) sampling methods. We introduce a simple framework to analyze discretization, initialization, and score estimation errors. Notably, we derive the first Wasserstein convergence bound for the Heun sampler and improve existing results for the Euler sampler of the probability flow ODE. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of spatial regularity of the learned score function and argues for controlling the score error with respect to the true reverse process, in line with denoising score matching. We also incorporate recent results on smoothed Wasserstein distances to sharpen initialization error bounds.

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arXiv2025

Kernel Learning with Adversarial Features: Numerical Efficiency and Adaptive Regularization

Adversarial training has emerged as a key technique to enhance model robustness against adversarial input perturbations. Many of the existing methods rely on computationally expensive min-max problems that limit their application in practice. We propose a novel formulation of adversarial training in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, shifting from input to feature-space perturbations. This reformulation enables the exact solution of inner maximization and efficient optimization. It also provides a regularized estimator that naturally adapts to the noise level and the smoothness of the underlying function. We establish conditions under which the feature-perturbed formulation is a relaxation of the original problem and propose an efficient optimization algorithm based on iterative kernel ridge regression. We provide generalization bounds that help to understand the properties of the method. We also extend the formulation to multiple kernel learning. Empirical evaluation shows good performance in both clean and adversarial settings.

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