arXiv subjects

Francis P. Wilkin

Publications and source records attributed to Francis P. Wilkin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing the Impact of High-Resolution Imaging on Statistical Validation of TESS Planet Candidates

High-resolution imaging is widely used to constrain false-positive scenarios in exoplanet validation, but it is a finite follow-up resource that reaches only a subset of candidates, and its population-level impact on validation outcomes has not been quantified through controlled removal experiments. Using an automated pipeline built on TRICERATOPS, we compute the false-positive probability (FPP) of 443 TESS planet candidates. For the 264 planet candidates with high-resolution imaging observations, we compute FPP with and without the corresponding contrast curves, allowing us to quantify the impact of the additional data. We find that 72% of 68 contrast-curve bearing validated planets would fail validation without their adopted contrast curves. The fraction requiring imaging decreases with increasing planet size, from 100% below $1.7~R_\oplus$ to $33\%$ above $4~R_\oplus$: within our sample and TRICERATOPS-based analysis, the availability of high-resolution imaging directly limits the yield of small-planet validation and the supply of validated targets for atmospheric characterization. Our analysis statistically validates 64 new TESS planets with sizes spanning 0.94 to 7.83 $R_\oplus$ across hosts of spectral type M through F. Four of these are highly amenable to JWST observations based on the transmission and emission spectroscopy metrics, and each achieves validation only with its imaging constraint.

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arXiv2026

A Pair of Warm Saturn-mass Planets near the 2:1 Mean Motion Resonance around TOI-3850

Warm Jupiters, with orbital periods of $10$--$200~\rm{days}$ and radii exceeding $8~R_{\oplus}$, are a relatively understudied class of exoplanets occupying the parameter space between hot Jupiters and more widely separated, colder Jupiter analogs. In this work, we report the detection of a multi-planet warm Jupiter system around TOI-3850 (TIC-143008050), a moderately active, near-solar metallicity G0 dwarf star observed by TESS in Sectors 15, 21, 41, 48 and 75. Initially, a single candidate planet was discovered by TESS, displaying transit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of $\sim 1~\rm hr$ and a super-period of $513~\rm days$. Through a combination of transit photometry, radial velocity observations with MAROON-X, and TTV modeling, we identify two planets: TOI-3850 b $(P_b=14.484\pm0.002~\mathrm{days},~ M_b =112\pm20~M_{\oplus},~e_b = 0.018\pm0.008, R_b = 12.07\pm0.09~R_{\oplus}, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=841\pm10~\rm{K})$, a transiting warm Jupiter, and TOI-3850 c $(P_c=29.85\pm0.01~\mathrm{days},~ M_c =90\pm15~M_{\oplus},~e_c < 0.015, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=661\pm7~\rm{K})$, a non-transiting, Saturn-mass companion. The two planets lie wide of the 2:1 mean motion resonance $(P_c/P_b \approx 2.06)$, consistent with a formation history involving disk-driven migration. $N$-body integrations indicate that TOI-3850 c may begin to transit on decadal timescales, while TOI-3850 b remains a promising target for follow-up atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2026

The Occurrence Rate of Nearby Planetary Companions to Hot Jupiters

Of the > 500 confirmed transiting hot jupiters and approximately 2000 additional candidates today, only ten are known to have nearby companion planets. The survival of nearby companions means that these hot jupiters cannot have migrated to their present location via dynamically disruptive high-eccentricity migration but instead have undergone disk migration or formed in situ. The occurrence rate for these nearby companions, therefore, constrains the relative efficiency of different hot jupiter formation pathways. Here, we perform a uniform box least-squares search for nearby transiting companions to hot jupiters in the first five years of TESS data. Accounting for observational completeness and detection efficiency, we arrive at an occurrence rate of $(7.6^{+5.5}_{-3.8})\%$, which is a lower limit on the fraction of hot jupiters that underwent disk migration or in situ formation. Comparing this rate with that derived from transit-timing variation searches suggests that hot jupiters are likely mostly aligned with their nearby companions, but their apparently higher incidence of grazing transits may point to a slight preferential misalignment. We also synthesize evidence that hot jupiters with nearby companions may have cold companions at a rate similar to that of other hot jupiters. Comprehensive transit, radial velocity, and stellar obliquity measurements in hot jupiter systems with nearby companions will be necessary to fully account for the relative prevalence of proposed hot jupiter formation pathways.

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arXiv2026

TOI-6884b: A low-mass brown dwarf transiting a slightly evolved star

We report the discovery of a low-mass transiting brown dwarf orbiting TOI-6884 (TIC~156514476, $T_{\rm mag}=11.4$) from NASA's \textit{Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite} (\textit{TESS}) mission. The \textit{TESS} light curves initially suggested an orbital period of $\sim$14.42~days; however, our high-precision ground-based radial velocity measurements and multi-epoch time-series photometry reveal this to be a harmonic alias. We determine the true orbital period to be $4.808264^{+0.000015}_{-0.000014}$~days and confirm the substellar nature of the companion. TOI-6884b has a mass of $26.32^{+0.98}_{-0.93}\,M_{\mathrm{J}}$, a radius of $0.927^{+0.51}_{-0.52}\,R_{\mathrm{J}}$, and resides on a nearly circular orbit ($e=0.067^{+0.010}_{-0.012}$). Its host star is a late F-type slightly evolved star with $M_\star = 1.410^{+0.075}_{-0.069}\,M_\odot$,\msun, $R_\star = 1.840^{+0.072}_{-0.073}\,R_\odot$, $\log{g} = 4.057^{+0.045}_{-0.039}$, $[{\rm Fe/H}] = 0.094^{+0.073}_{-0.068}$~dex, and $T_{\rm eff}=6330^{+180}_{-160}$,\mathrm{K}$. TOI-6884b is a key addition to the small population of well-characterized transiting brown dwarfs orbiting host stars that have evolved off the main sequence. The detection of such systems will contribute to our understanding of the dynamical histories and structural evolution of short-period substellar companions around evolved stars.

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arXiv2026

TOI-7169 b: A Hot Jupiter Transiting a Metal-Poor Star

Most known planets are found around metal-rich host stars, which has made it difficult to determine whether a lower metallicity limit for planet formation exists and how the properties of planets born in low-metallicity environments may differ from those with metal-rich origins. We present the discovery and characterization of TOI-7169 b (TIC 372048733 b), a hot Jupiter that is orbiting a spectroscopically-confirmed metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -0.72 +/- 0.05) host star. Based on photometry from TESS and follow-up ground-based imaging, we measure an orbital period of 3.4373125 d and a planetary radius of 1.475 +/- 0.029 R_Jup. We use TRES spectroscopy to determine a mass for TOI-7169 b of 0.41 +/- 0.14 M_Jup. The planet is therefore inflated, with a low density of 0.159 +0.055/-0.054 g/cm^3. We also characterize the host star, showing that TOI-7169 is ancient (12.3 +/- 0.6 Gyr) and alpha-enhanced ([alpha/Fe] ~ 0.3), but with a Galactocentric orbit that is confined to the thin disk. TOI-7169 is perhaps the oldest and most metal-poor star currently known to host a transiting giant planet. Future transmission spectroscopy probing the atmosphere of TOI-7169 b may provide insight into the effect of metallicity on the physical properties of giant planets.

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arXiv2026

Stellar Obliquities of Young Systems, Atmospheres Undergoing Contraction and Escape (SOYSAUCE) II: a 135 Myr planet on an aligned orbit with transit timing variations

Young planets (<1 Gyr) provide opportunities to directly probe planet formation and evolution processes in action. However, due to heightened stellar activity, there is a lack of known transiting planets in adolescence (~100-500 Myr). Here we present the validation of TIC 150070085 b, a 3.6 R_E planet on a 10.47 day orbit, and report the candidate TIC 150070085 c, a 3.0 R_E planet on a 15.90 day orbit. While we are unable to validate the second signal, the proximity to mean motion resonance (3:2) and transit timing variations observed in the transits of TIC 150070085 b strongly suggest the signal is planetary. We confirm the host star as a member of Alessi 84 and combine the group's CMD, rotation, and variability properties to update the age to 135 +/- 10 Myr. We additionally use MAROON-X to observe the Rossiter-McLaughlin signal of TIC 150070085 b and measure the sky projected obliquity angle ($λ$). We find TIC 150070085 b is consistent with a near-aligned orbit with its host star (|$λ$| = 18 +/- 12$^\circ$), in line with similarly aged transiting planets with measured $λ$ values. Continued discovery and characterization of planets in this age regime are vital to link planetary infancy (<50 Myr) and maturity (>1 Gyr).

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arXiv2026

Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System

Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.

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arXiv2026

An Adolescent and Near-Resonant Planetary System Near the End of Photoevaporation

Young exoplanets provide vital insights into the early dynamical and atmospheric evolution of planetary systems. Many multi-planet systems younger than 100 Myr exhibit mean-motion resonances, likely established through convergent disk migration. Over time, however, these resonant chains are often disrupted, mirroring the Nice model proposed for the Solar System. We present a detailed characterization of the ~200-Myr-old TOI-2076 system, which contains four sub-Neptune planets between 1.4 and 3.5 Earth radii. We demonstrate that its planets are near but not locked in mean-motion resonances, making the system dynamically fragile. The four planets have comparable core masses but display a monotonic increase in hydrogen and helium (H/He) envelope mass fractions (stripped-1%-5%-5%) with decreasing stellar insolation. This trend is consistent with atmospheric mass-loss due to photoevaporation, which predicts that the envelopes of irradiated planets either erode completely or stabilize at a residual level of ~1% by mass within the first few hundred million years, with more distant, less-irradiated planets retaining most of primordial envelopes. Additionally, previous detections of metastable helium outflows rule out a pure water-world scenario for TOI-2076 planets. Our finding provides direct observational evidence that the dynamical and atmospheric reshaping of compact planetary systems begin early, offering an empirical anchor for models of their long-term evolution.

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arXiv2026

Unraveling the Brown Dwarf Desert: Four New Discoveries and a Unifying, Period-Coded Picture

We present four newly validated transiting brown dwarfs identified through TESS photometry and confirmed with high-precision radial velocity measurements obtained from the FEROS and PLATOSpec spectrographs. Notably, three of these companions exhibit orbital periods exceeding 100 days, thereby expanding the sample of long-period transiting brown dwarfs from two to five systems. The host stars of long-period brown dwarfs show mild subsolar metallicity. These discoveries highlight the expansion of the metal-poor, long-period distribution and help us better understand the brown dwarf desert. In our comparative analysis of eccentricity and metallicity demographics, we utilize catalogues of long-period giant planets, brown dwarfs, and low-mass stellar companions. After accounting for tidal influences, the eccentricity distribution aligns with that of low-mass stellar binaries, presenting a different profile than that observed within the giant planet population. Additionally, the metallicity of the host stars reveals a noteworthy trend: short-period transiting brown dwarfs are predominantly associated with metal-rich stars, whereas long-period brown dwarfs are more often found around metal-poor stars, demonstrating statistical similarities to low-mass stellar hosts. This trend has also been previously observed in studies of hot and cold Jupiters and points to a period-coded mixture of channels. A natural explanation is that most brown dwarfs originate from fragmentation at wider separations, with long-period systems retaining this stellar-like imprint, while only those embedded in massive, long-lived, metal-rich protoplanetary discs are efficiently delivered and stabilised to short orbits.

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arXiv2025

From Earths to Super-Earths: Five New Small Planets Transiting M Dwarf Stars

Earth-sized planets transiting M dwarf stars present one of the best opportunities with current facilities for studying the atmospheric and bulk compositions of terrestrial worlds. Here, we statistically validate five new transiting Earth and super-Earth sized planets orbiting M dwarf stars using a combination of light curves from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, multi-color observations from Palomar and Las Cumbres Observatory, high-resolution imaging, and stellar spectroscopy. The sample includes: TOI-5716 b, an Earth-sized planet (R_p = 0.96 $\pm$ 0.05 Rearth) with a 6.766-day orbit around a metal-poor thin-disk star ([Fe/H] = -0.54 $\pm$ 0.10); TOI-5728 b, a super-Earth (R_p = 1.31 $\pm$ 0.05 Rearth) on an 11.497-day orbit; and TOI-5736 b, a larger planet (R_p = 1.56 $\pm$ 0.07 Rearth) with an ultra-short period of just 0.649 days. We also statistically validate a multi-planet system, TOI-5489, hosting two similarly-sized super-Earths: TOI-5489 b (R_p = 1.40 $\pm$ 0.05 R_earth) and TOI-5489 c (R_p = 1.28 $\pm$ 0.07 R_earth) with orbital periods of 3.152 and 4.921 days, respectively. Due to their longer orbital periods, TOI-5716 b and TOI-5728 b both have equilibrium temperatures $\leq$ 400 K, making them useful test cases for studies of atmospheric mass loss. If TOI-5728 b is confirmed to have an Earth-like bulk composition, it would join the very small sample of rocky planets orbiting mid- to late-M dwarfs that lie below the cosmic shoreline and therefore may have retained high mean molecular weight atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

TESS Investigation -- Demographics of Young Exoplanets (TI-DYE) IV: a Jovian radius planet orbiting a 34 Myr Sun-like star in the Vela association

The discovery of infant (< 50 Myr), close-in (<30-day period) planets is vital in understanding the formation mechanisms that lead to the distribution of mature transiting planets as discovered by Kepler. Despite several discoveries in this age bin, the sample is still too small for a robust statistical comparison to older planets. Here we report the validation of TOI-6448 b, an 8.8 +/- 0.8 Re planet on a 14.8 day orbit. TOI-6448 was previously identified to be a likely member of Vela Population IV. We confirm the star's membership and re-derive the age of the cluster using isochrones, variability, and gyrochronology. We find the star, and thus planet, to be 34 +/- 3 Myr. Like other young planets, TOI-6448 b lands in a region of parameter space with few older planets. While just one data point, this fits with prior findings of an excess of 5-11Re planets around young stars far beyond what can be explained by reduced sensitivity at young ages. Our ongoing search of Vela, Taurus-Auriga, Sco-Cen, and Orion are expected to reveal dozens more < 50 Myr transiting planets.

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arXiv2025

THYME XIII: Two young Neptunes orbiting a 75-Myr star in the Alpha Persei Cluster

Young planets with mass measurements are particularly valuable in studying atmospheric mass-loss processes, but these planets are rare and their masses difficult to measure due to stellar activity. We report the discovery of a planetary system around TOI-6109, a young, 75 Myr-old Sun-like star in the Alpha Persei cluster. It hosts at least two transiting Neptune-like planets. Using three TESS sectors, 30 CHEOPS orbits, and photometric follow-up observations from the ground, we confirm the signals of the two planets. TOI-6109 b has an orbital period of P=$5.6904^{+0.0004}_{-0.0004}$ days and a radius of R=$4.87^{+0.16}_{-0.12}$ R$_\oplus$. The outer planet, TOI-6109 c has an orbital period of P=$8.5388^{+0.0006}_{-0.0005}$ days and a radius of R=$4.83^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ R$_\oplus$. These planets orbit just outside a 3:2 mean motion resonance. The near-resonant configuration presents the opportunity to measure the planet's mass via TTV measurements and to bypass difficult RV measurements. Measuring the masses of the planets in this system will allow us to test theoretical models of atmospheric mass loss.

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arXiv2025

ExoMiner++: Enhanced Transit Classification and a New Vetting Catalog for 2-Minute TESS Data

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage multi-source training by combining high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope with TESS data. This approach mitigates the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalog containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.

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arXiv2025

The Eccentricity Distribution of Warm Sub-Saturns in TESS

We present the eccentricity distribution of warm sub-Saturns (4-8 Re, 8-200 day periods) as derived from an analysis of transit light curves from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. We use the "photoeccentric" effect to constrain the eccentricities of 76 planets, comprising 60 and 16 from single- and multi-transiting systems, respectively. We employ Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling to infer the eccentricity distribution of the population, testing both a Beta and Mixture Beta distribution. We identify a few highly eccentric (e ~ 0.7-0.8) warm sub-Saturns with eccentricities that appear too high to be explained by disk migration or planet-planet scattering alone, suggesting high-eccentricity migration may play a role in their formation. The majority of the population have a mean eccentricity of e = 0.103+0.047-0.045, consistent with both planet-disk and planet-planet interactions. Notably, we find that the highly eccentric sub-Saturns occur in single-transiting systems. This study presents the first evidence at the population level that the eccentricities of sub-Saturns may be sculpted by dynamical processes.

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arXiv2024

Discovery of two warm mini-Neptunes with contrasting densities orbiting the young K3V star TOI-815

We present the discovery and characterization of two warm mini-Neptunes transiting the K3V star TOI-815 in a K-M binary system. Analysis of the spectra and rotation period reveal it to be a young star with an age of $200^{+400}_{-200}$Myr. TOI-815b has a 11.2-day period and a radius of 2.94$\pm$0.05$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ with transits observed by TESS, CHEOPS, ASTEP, and LCOGT. The outer planet, TOI-815c, has a radius of 2.62$\pm$0.10$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$, based on observations of three non-consecutive transits with TESS, while targeted CHEOPS photometry and radial velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO were required to confirm the 35-day period. ESPRESSO confirmed the planetary nature of both planets and measured masses of 7.6$\pm$1.5 $\it{M_{\rm \mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=1.64$^{+0.33}_{-0.31}$gcm$^{-3}$) and 23.5$\pm$2.4$\it{M_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=7.2$^{+1.1}_{-1.0}$gcm$^{-3}$) respectively. Thus, the planets have very different masses, unlike the usual similarity of masses in compact multi-planet systems. Moreover, our statistical analysis of mini-Neptunes orbiting FGK stars suggests that weakly irradiated planets tend to have higher bulk densities compared to those suffering strong irradiation. This could be ascribed to their cooler atmospheres, which are more compressed and denser. Internal structure modeling of TOI-815b suggests it likely has a H-He atmosphere constituting a few percent of the total planet mass, or higher if the planet is assumed to have no water. In contrast, the measured mass and radius of TOI-815c can be explained without invoking any atmosphere, challenging planetary formation theories. Finally, we infer from our measurements that the star is viewed close to pole-on, which implies a spin-orbit misalignment at the 3$σ$ level.

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arXiv2023

Spin vectors in the Koronis family: V. Resolving the ambiguous rotation period of (3032) Evans

A sidereal rotation counting approach is demonstrated by resolving an ambiguity in the synodic rotation period of Koronis family member (3032) Evans, whose rotation lightcurves' features did not easily distinguish between doubly- and quadruply-periodic. It confirms that Evans's spin rate does not exceed the rubble-pile spin barrier and thus presents no inconsistency with being a ~14-km reaccumulated object. The full spin vector solution for Evans is comparable to those for the known prograde low-obliquity comparably-fast rotators in the Koronis family, consistent with having been spun up by YORP thermal radiation torques.

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arXiv2022

Spin vectors in the Koronis family: IV. Completing the sample of its largest members after 35 years of study

An observational study of Koronis family members' spin properties was undertaken with two primary objectives: to reduce selection biases for object rotation period and lightcurve amplitude in the sample of members' known spin vectors, and to better constrain future modeling of spin properties evolution. Here we report rotation lightcurves of nineteen Koronis family members, and derived results that increase the sample of determined spin vectors in the Koronis family to include 34 of the largest 36 family members, completing it to $H \approx 11.3$ ($D \sim 16$ km) for the largest 32 members. The program observations were made during a total of 72 apparitions between 2005-2021, and are reported here along with several earlier unpublished lightcurves. All of the reported data were analyzed together with previously published lightcurves to determine the objects' sidereal rotation periods, spin vector orientations, and convex model shape solutions. The derived distributions of retrograde rotation rates and pole obliquities appear to be qualitatively consistent with outcomes of modification by thermal YORP torques. The distribution of spin rates for the prograde rotators remains narrower than that for the retrograde rotators; in particular, the absence of prograde rotators having periods longer than about 20 h is real, while among the retrograde rotators are several objects having longer periods up to about 65 h. None of the prograde objects newly added to the sample appear to be trapped in an $s_6$ spin-orbit resonance that is characteristic of most of the largest prograde objects; these smaller objects either could have been trapped previously and have already evolved out, or have experienced spin evolution tracks that did not include the resonance.

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