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Francis-Yan Cyr-Racine

Publications and source records attributed to Francis-Yan Cyr-Racine.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Sensitivity of Next-Generation CMB Surveys to Neutrinos and Other Light Relics

Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number $N_\mathrm{eff}$. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches $\sigma(N_\mathrm{eff}) < 0.03$ over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise $N_\mathrm{eff}$ measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

The Sensitivity of Substructure Lensing to SIDM Core-collapse Model Variation

Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a powerful probe of dark matter substructure, and shows particularly strong promise as a test of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). The compact halos produced by SIDM can leave distinct imprints on lensing observations, but the core-collapse timeline for subhalos is difficult to model accurately. This difficulty is an obstacle to accurate substructure lensing predictions, where small variations in core-collapsing subhalos can lead to significant differences in the lensing power. To quantify this problem and inform future lensing analyses, we test various methods of modeling core-collapsing halos and show the effect of each variation on the two-point correlation function of the effective deflection field's divergence and curl. Our tests include smoothly evolving density profiles versus instantaneously collapsing halos, probabilistic collapse versus individual halo evolution, and variation of the initial and final density profile parameters. We find that the two-point correlation function is sensitive to most of these variations at small length scales, but the detectability of these differences will depend on the observational probe.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1,024 Milky Way-mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA Survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Neural posterior estimation of the line-of-sight and subhalo populations in galaxy-scale strong lensing systems

Strong gravitational lensing is a powerful probe for studying the fundamental properties of dark matter on sub-galactic scales. Detailed analyses of galaxy-scale lenses have revealed localized gravitational perturbations beyond the smooth mass distribution of the main lens galaxy, largely attributed to dark matter subhalos and intervening line-of-sight halos. Recent studies suggest that, in contrast to subhalos, line-of-sight halos imprint distinct anisotropic features on the two-point correlation function of the effective lensing deflection field. These anisotropies are particularly sensitive to the collisional nature of dark matter, offering a potential means to test alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. In this study, we explore whether a neural density estimator can directly identify such anisotropic signatures from galaxy-galaxy strong lens images. We model the multipoles of the two-point function using a power-law parameterization and train a neural density estimator to predict the corresponding posterior distribution of lensing parameters, alongside parameter distributions for dark matter substructure. Our results show that recovering the dark matter substructure mass functions and mass-concentration parameters remains challenging, owing to difficulties in generating uniform training data set while using physically motivated priors. We also unveil an important degeneracy between the line-of-sight halo mass-function amplitude and the subhalo mass-function normalization. Furthermore, the network exhibits limited accuracy in predicting the two-point function multipole parameters, suggesting that both the training data and the adopted power-law fitting function may inadequately represent the true underlying structure of the anisotropic signal.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

Limits of self-interacting neutrinos from the BAO and CMB phase shift

Neutrinos with Standard Model interactions free-stream in the early Universe, leaving a distinct phase shift in the pattern of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). When isolated, this phase shift allows one to robustly infer the presence of the cosmic neutrino background in BAO and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data independently of other cosmological parameters. While in the context of the Standard Model, this phase shift follows a known scale-dependent relation, new physics in the cosmic neutrino background could alter the overall shape of this feature. In this paper, we discuss how changes in the neutrino phase shift could be used to constrain self-interactions among neutrinos. We produce simple models for this phase-shift assuming universal self-interactions, and use these in order to understand what constraining power is available for the strength of such interactions in BAO and CMB data. We find that, although challenging, it may be possible to use a detection of the phase to put a more robust limit on the strength of the self-interaction, $G_{\mathrm{eff}}$, which at present suffers from bimodality in cosmological constraints. Our forecast analysis reveals that BAO data alone will not provide the precision needed to tightly constrain self-interactions; however, the combined analysis of the phase shift signature in both CMB and BAO can potentially provide a way to detect the impact of new neutrino interactions. Our results could be extended upon for models with non-universal interactions.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

DESIgning concordant distances in the age of precision cosmology: the impact of density fluctuations

Discrepancies between distance measurements and $\Lambda$CDM predictions reveal notable features in the distance-redshift relation, possibly suggesting the presence of an evolving dark energy component. Given the central role of the Friedmann-Lema\^itre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric in modeling cosmological distances, we investigate here whether these features instead point to a possible departure from the fundamental FLRW symmetries. Exploiting the transverse and line-of-sight distances provided by baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) observations, we demonstrate that observed distances hint at a slight but systematic preference for an anisotropic expansion rate emerging regardless of the dark energy model considered. Leveraging this non-FLRW feature, we investigate an inhomogeneous extension of the $\Lambda$CDM model that naturally provides an anisotropic expansion rate. Our analysis demonstrates that models featuring spherical overdensities can explain BAO, supernova, and cosmic microwave background data, providing fits statistically indistinguishable from those obtained with a phantom dark energy scenario. When Pantheon+ data is considered, our analysis challenges the FLRW framework at $2.8\sigma$ and yields scenarios that can be interpreted as subtle but non-negligible deviations from the FLRW metric. When DESY5 supernovae are considered instead, deviations are notably more significant, yielding scenarios that mildly violate the Copernican principle and exclude the FLRW assumption at $5.2\sigma$. Overall, our results motivate a more in-depth investigation of whether the perfectly homogeneous and isotropic FLRW paradigm can still be assumed to accurately predict cosmological distances in the era of precision cosmology.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

The Roman View of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lenses can constrain dark matter models and the Lambda Cold Dark Matter cosmological paradigm at sub-galactic scales. Currently, there is a dearth of images of these rare systems with high signal-to-noise and angular resolution. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (hereafter, Roman), scheduled for launch in late 2026, will play a transformative role in strong lensing science with its planned wide-field surveys. With its remarkable 0.281 square degree field of view and diffraction-limited angular resolution of ~0.1 arcsec, Roman is uniquely suited to characterizing dark matter substructure from a robust population of strong lenses. We present a yield simulation of detectable strong lenses in Roman's planned High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS). We simulate a population of galaxy-galaxy strong lenses across cosmic time with Cold Dark Matter subhalo populations, select those detectable in the HLWAS, and generate simulated images accounting for realistic Wide Field Instrument detector effects. For a fiducial case of single 146-second exposures, we predict around 160,000 detectable strong lenses in the HLWAS, of which about 500 will have sufficient signal-to-noise to be amenable to detailed substructure characterization. We investigate the effect of the variation of the point-spread function across Roman's field of view on detecting individual subhalos and the suppression of the subhalo mass function at low masses. Our simulation products are available to support strong lens science with Roman, such as training neural networks and validating dark matter substructure analysis pipelines.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2024

How DREAMS are made: Emulating Satellite Galaxy and Subhalo Populations with Diffusion Models and Point Clouds

The connection between galaxies and their host dark matter (DM) halos is critical to our understanding of cosmology, galaxy formation, and DM physics. To maximize the return of upcoming cosmological surveys, we need an accurate way to model this complex relationship. Many techniques have been developed to model this connection, from Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) to empirical and semi-analytic models to hydrodynamic. Hydrodynamic simulations can incorporate more detailed astrophysical processes but are computationally expensive; HODs, on the other hand, are computationally cheap but have limited accuracy. In this work, we present NeHOD, a generative framework based on variational diffusion model and Transformer, for painting galaxies/subhalos on top of DM with an accuracy of hydrodynamic simulations but at a computational cost similar to HOD. By modeling galaxies/subhalos as point clouds, instead of binning or voxelization, we can resolve small spatial scales down to the resolution of the simulations. For each halo, NeHOD predicts the positions, velocities, masses, and concentrations of its central and satellite galaxies. We train NeHOD on the TNG-Warm DM suite of the DREAMS project, which consists of 1024 high-resolution zoom-in hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way-mass halos with varying warm DM mass and astrophysical parameters. We show that our model captures the complex relationships between subhalo properties as a function of the simulation parameters, including the mass functions, stellar-halo mass relations, concentration-mass relations, and spatial clustering. Our method can be used for a large variety of downstream applications, from galaxy clustering to strong lensing studies.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Cool dark sector, concordance, and a low $σ_8$

We investigate a cosmological model in which a fraction of the dark matter is atomic dark matter (ADM). This ADM consists of dark versions of the electron and of the proton, interacting with each other and with dark photons just as their light sector versions do, but interacting with everything else only gravitationally. We find constraints given current cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data, with and without an $H_0$ prior, and with and without enforcing a big bang nucleosynthesis consistent helium abundance. We find that, at low dark photon temperature, one can have consistency with BAO and CMB data, with a fraction of dark matter that is ADM ($f_{\rm adm}$) as large as $\sim 0.1$. Such a large $f_{\rm adm}$ leads to a suppression of density fluctuations today on scales below about 60 Mpc that may be of relevance to the $σ_8$ tension. Our work motivates calculation of nonlinear corrections to matter power spectrum predictions in the ADM model. We forecast parameter constraints to come from future ground-based CMB surveys, and find that if ADM is indeed the cause of the $σ_8$ tension, the influence of the ADM, primarily on CMB lensing, will likely be detectable at high significance.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2024

Introducing the DREAMS Project: DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine learning and Simulations

We introduce the DREAMS project, an innovative approach to understanding the astrophysical implications of alternative dark matter models and their effects on galaxy formation and evolution. The DREAMS project will ultimately comprise thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously vary over dark matter physics, astrophysics, and cosmology in modeling a range of systems -- from galaxy clusters to ultra-faint satellites. Such extensive simulation suites can provide adequate training sets for machine-learning-based analyses. This paper introduces two new cosmological hydrodynamical suites of Warm Dark Matter, each comprised of 1024 simulations generated using the Arepo code. One suite consists of uniform-box simulations covering a $(25~h^{-1}~{\rm M}_\odot)^3$ volume, while the other consists of Milky Way zoom-ins with sufficient resolution to capture the properties of classical satellites. For each simulation, the Warm Dark Matter particle mass is varied along with the initial density field and several parameters controlling the strength of baryonic feedback within the IllustrisTNG model. We provide two examples, separately utilizing emulators and Convolutional Neural Networks, to demonstrate how such simulation suites can be used to disentangle the effects of dark matter and baryonic physics on galactic properties. The DREAMS project can be extended further to include different dark matter models, galaxy formation physics, and astrophysical targets. In this way, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity to characterize uncertainties on predictions for small-scale observables, leading to robust predictions for testing the particle physics nature of dark matter on these scales.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Separating Dark Acoustic Oscillations from Astrophysics at Cosmic Dawn

The formation redshift and abundance of the first stars and galaxies is highly sensitive to the build up of low mass dark matter halos as well as astrophysical feedback effects which modulate star formation in these low mass halos. The 21-cm signal at cosmic dawn will depend strongly on the formation of these first luminous sources and thus can be used to constrain unknown astrophysical and dark matter properties in the early universe. In this paper, we explore how well we could measure properties of dark matter using the 21-cm power spectrum at $z>10$, given unconstrained astrophysical parameters. We create a generalizable form of the dark matter halo mass function for models with damped and/or oscillatory linear power spectra, finding a single "smooth-k" window function which describes a broad range of models including CDM. We use this to make forecasts for structure formation using the Effective Theory of Structure Formation (ETHOS) framework to explore a broad parameter space of dark matter models. We make predictions for the 21-cm power spectrum observed by HERA varying both cosmological ETHOS parameters as well as astrophysical parameters. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo forecast we find that the ETHOS dark matter parameters are degenerate with astrophysical parameters linked to star formation in low mass dark matter halos but not with X-ray heating produced by the first generation of stars. After marginalizing over uncertainties in astrophysical parameters we demonstrate that with just 540 days of HERA observations it should be possible to distinguish between CDM and a broad range of dark matter models with suppression at wavenumbers $k\lesssim 200\,h$Mpc$^{-1}$ assuming a moderate noise level. These results demonstrate the potential of 21-cm observations to constrain the matter power spectrum on scales smaller than current probes.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2024

A Ratio-Preserving Approach to Cosmological Concordance

Cosmological observables are particularly sensitive to key ratios of energy densities and rates, both today and at earlier epochs of the Universe. Well-known examples include the photon-to-baryon and the matter-to-radiation ratios. Equally important, though less publicized, are the ratios of pressure-supported to pressureless matter and the Thomson scattering rate to the Hubble rate around recombination, both of which observations tightly constrain. Preserving these key ratios in theories beyond the $\Lambda$ Cold-Dark-Matter ($\Lambda$CDM) model ensures broad concordance with a large swath of datasets when addressing cosmological tensions. We demonstrate that a mirror dark sector, reflecting a partial $\mathbb{Z}_2$ symmetry with the Standard Model, in conjunction with percent level changes to the visible fine-structure constant and electron mass which represent a \textit{phenomenological} change to the Thomson scattering rate, maintains essential cosmological ratios. Incorporating this ratio preserving approach into a cosmological framework significantly improves agreement to observational data ($\Delta\chi^2=-35.72$) and completely eliminates the Hubble tension with a cosmologically inferred $H_0 = 73.80 \pm 1.02$ km/s/Mpc when including the S$H_0$ES calibration in our analysis. While our approach is certainly nonminimal, it emphasizes the importance of keeping key ratios constant when exploring models beyond $\Lambda$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2024

Strong constraints on a simple self-interacting neutrino cosmology

Some cosmic microwave background (CMB) data allow a cosmological scenario in which the free streaming of neutrinos is delayed until close to matter-radiation equality. Interestingly, recent analyses have revealed that large-scale structure (LSS) data also align with this scenario, discarding the possibility of an accidental feature in the CMB sky and calling for further investigation into the free-streaming nature of neutrinos. By assuming a simple representation of self-interacting neutrinos, we investigate whether this nonstandard scenario can accommodate a consistent cosmology for both the CMB power spectra and the large-scale distribution of galaxies simultaneously. Employing three different approaches - a profile likelihood exploration, a nested sampling method, and a heuristic Metropolis-Hasting approximation - we exhaustively explore the parameter space and demonstrate that galaxy data exacerbates the challenge already posed by the Planck polarization data for this nonstandard scenario. We find that the Bayes factor disfavor strong interactions among neutrinos over the $\Lambda$CDM and $\Lambda$CDM + $N_\mathrm{eff}$ + $\sum m_\nu$ models with odds of $7:10000$ and $23:1000$, respectively, providing large evidence against the simple self-interacting neutrino model. Our analysis emphasizes the need to consider a broader range of phenomenologies in the early Universe. We also highlight significant numerical and theoretical challenges ahead in uncovering the exact nature of the feature observed in the data or, ultimately, confirming the standard chronological evolution of the Universe.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

The two-mode puzzle: Confronting self-interacting neutrinos with the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum

A cosmological scenario in which the onset of neutrino free streaming in the early Universe is delayed until close to the epoch of matter-radiation equality has been shown to provide a good fit to some cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, while being somewhat disfavored by Planck CMB polarization data. To clarify this situation, we investigate in this paper CMB-independent constraints on this scenario from the Full Shape of the galaxy power spectrum. Although this scenario predicts significant changes to the linear matter power spectrum, we find that it can provide a good fit to the galaxy power spectrum data. Interestingly, we show that the data display a modest preference for a delayed onset of neutrino free streaming over the standard model of cosmology, which is driven by the galaxy power spectrum data on mildly non-linear scales. This conclusion is supported by both profile likelihood and Bayesian exploration analyses, showing robustness of the results. Compared to the standard cosmological paradigm, this scenario predicts a significant suppression of structure on subgalactic scales. While our analysis relies on the simplest cosmological representation of neutrino self-interactions, we argue that this persistent - and somehow consistent - picture in which neutrino free streaming is delayed motivates the exploration of particle models capable of reconciling all CMB, large-scale structure, and laboratory data.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

Anisotropic strong lensing as a probe of dark matter self-interactions

Galaxy-scale strongly lensed systems have been shown to provide a unique technique for exploring the underlying physics of dark matter at sub-galactic scales. In the past, much attention was given to detecting and studying individual haloes in a strong lens system. In addition to the subhaloes, line-of-sight haloes contribute significantly to the small perturbations in lensed images. In prior work, we demonstrated that these line-of-sight haloes imprint a distinctive anisotropic signature and hence give rise to a detectable non-zero parity-even quadrupole moment in the effective convergence field's two-point correlation function. In this study, we show that these line-of-sight haloes also produce a non-zero curl component of the effective deflection field with a parity-odd quadrupole moment of the two-point function. These multipole moments have the ability to statistically separate line-of-sight haloes from dark matter substructure. In this paper, we examine how these multipole moments evolve in the presence of warm dark matter and self-interacting dark matter in terms of central density evolution and dark matter halo abundance. Importantly, we show that these different multipole moments display exquisite sensitivity to both the amplitude and the velocity dependence of the dark matter self-interaction cross-section. Our approach opens the door for strong lensing observations to probe dark matter self-interaction over a broad range of relative velocities.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

Till the core collapses: the evolution and properties of self-interacting dark matter subhalos

One of the hottest questions in the cosmology of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) is whether scatterings can induce detectable core-collapse in halos by the present day. Because gravitational tides can accelerate core-collapse, the most promising targets to observe core-collapse are satellite galaxies and subhalo systems. However, simulating small subhalos is computationally intensive, especially when subhalos start to core-collapse. In this work, we present a hierarchical framework for simulating a population of SIDM subhalos, which reduces the computation time to linear order in the total number of subhalos. With this method, we simulate substructure lensing systems with multiple velocity-dependent SIDM models, and show how subhalo evolution depends on the SIDM model, subhalo mass and orbits. We find that an SIDM cross section of $\gtrsim 200$ cm$^2$/g at velocity scales relevant for subhalos' internal heat transfer is needed for a significant fraction of subhalos to core-collapse in a typical lens system at redshift $z=0.5$, and that core-collapse has unique observable features in lensing. We show quantitatively that core-collapse in subhalos is typically accelerated compared to field halos, except when the SIDM cross section is non-negligible ($\gtrsim \mathcal{O}(1)$ cm$^2$/g) at subhalos' orbital velocities, in which case evaporation by the host can delay core-collapse. This suggests that substructure lensing can be used to probe velocity-dependent SIDM models, especially if line-of-sight structures (field halos) can be distinguished from lens-plane subhalos. Intriguingly, we find that core-collapse in subhalos can explain the recently reported ultra-steep density profiles of substructures found by lensing with the \emph{Hubble Space Telescope}

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

Rock 'n' Roll Solutions to the Hubble Tension

Local measurements of the Hubble parameter are increasingly in tension with the value inferred from a $Λ$CDM fit to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. In this paper, we construct scenarios in which evolving scalar fields significantly ease this tension by adding energy to the Universe around recombination in a narrow redshift window. We identify solutions with scalar field potential $V \propto ϕ^{2n}$ that have simple asymptotic behavior, both oscillatory (rocking) and rolling. These solutions consistently describe both the field evolution and its fluctuations without approximation. Our findings differ qualitatively from some of the existing literature, which rely upon a coarse-grained fluid description. Combining CMB data with low-redshift measurements, the best fit model has $n=2$ with a significantly higher value of the Hubble constant as compared to a $Λ$CDM fit to the same data. Future measurements of the late-time amplitude of matter fluctuations and of the reionization history could help distinguish these models from competing solutions.

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