arXiv subjects

Francisco A. Rodrigues

Publications and source records attributed to Francisco A. Rodrigues.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Machine learning for the prediction of voter model opinions through complex network structures

The inference of outcomes in dynamic processes from structural features of systems is a crucial endeavor in network science. Recent research has suggested a machine learning-based approach for the interpretation of dynamic patterns emerging in complex network systems. The hypothesis is applied in this study towards showing opinions can be classified in the voter model with the use of topological features from complex networks. An analysis was first performed with 2 (0 or 1) opinions from a voter model and extended for 3 and then 4 opinions from the same model. A breakdown of the key network topological features for the estimation is provided and network metrics are ranked in the order of importance with high accuracy. Our generalized approach is applicable to dynamical processes running on complex networks. This study is a step towards the application of machine learning methods to studies of dynamical patterns from complex network systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape

Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A particular type of epidemic model considers the individuals divided into populations. When studied in graphs, it is already known that the graph topology can play an important role in the evolution of the disease. At the same time, one may want to study the effect of the presence of an underlying \emph{attraction landscape} of the vertices, apart from the respectively underlying topology. In this work, we study metapopulations with small number of individuals in the presence of an attraction landscape. Individuals move across populations and get infected according to the SIS compartmental model. By using a Markov chain approach, we provide a numerical approximation to the prediction of the long-term prevalence of the disease. More specifically, an approach that combines two binomial distributions for mobility, with appropriate assumptions, is proposed to approximate the model. The problem setting is simulated through Monte-Carlo experiments and the obtained results are compared to the mathematic-analytical approach. Substantial agreement is observed between both approaches, which corroborates the effectiveness of the reported numerical approach. In addition, we also study the impact of different levels of attraction landscapes, as well as propagation on the local scale of the entire population. All in all, this study proposes a potentially effective approach to a mostly unexplored setting of disease transmission.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Shaking the causal tree: On the faithfulness and minimality assumptions beyond pairwise interactions

Built upon the concept of causal faithfulness, the so-called causal discovery algorithms propose the breakdown of mutual information (MI) and conditional mutual information (CMI) into sets of variables to reveal causal influences. These algorithms suffer from the lack of accounting emergent causes when connecting links, resulting in a spuriously embellished view of the organization of complex systems. Here, we show that causal emergent information is necessarily contained in CMIs. We also connect this result with the intrinsic violation of faithfulness and elucidate the importance of the concept of causal minimality. Finally, we show how faithfulness can be wrongly assumed only because of the appearance of spurious correlations by providing an example of a non-pairwise systems which should violate faithfulness, in principle, but it does not. The net result proposes an update to causal discovery algorithms, which can, in principle, detect and isolate emergent causal influences in the network reconstruction problems undetected so far.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

On the effect of memory on the Prisoner's Dilemma game in correlated networks

Game theory is fundamental to understanding cooperation between agents. Mainly, the Prisoner's Dilemma is a well-known model that has been extensively studied in complex networks. However, although the emergence of cooperation has been investigated before, the influence of memory in its evolution is not well understood. This paper presents a detailed study of cooperation dynamics in which agents have memory. We simulate the evolutionary Prisoner's dilemma game on random, scale-free and networks presenting degree-degree correlation. Through extensive simulations, we show that assortativity can improve cooperation when the temptation to defect increases. Moreover, we show that the inclusion of memory decreases the network structure influence. Our results contribute to understanding the role of the network structure and the player's memory of cooperation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks

The role of waning immunity in basic epidemic models on networks has been undervalued while being noticeable fundamental for real epidemic outbreaks. One central question is which mean-field approach is more accurate in describing the epidemic dynamics. We tackled this problem considering the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on networks. Two pairwise mean-field theories, one based on recurrent dynamical message-passing (rDMP) and the other on the pair quenched mean-field theory (PQMF), are compared with extensive stochastic simulations on large networks of different levels of heterogeneity. For waning immunity times longer than or comparable with the recovering time, rDMP outperforms PQMF theory on power-law networks with degree distribution $P(k) \sim k^{-γ}$. In particular, for $γ> 3$, the epidemic threshold observed in simulations is finite, in qualitative agreement with rDMP, while PQMF leads to an asymptotically null threshold. The critical epidemic prevalence for $γ> 3$ is localized in a finite set of vertices in the case of the PQMF theory. In contrast, the localization happens in a subextensive fraction of the network in rDMP theory. Simulations, however, indicate that localization patterns of the actual epidemic lay between the two mean-field theories, and improved theoretical approaches are necessary to understanding the SIRS dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Forecasting new diseases in low-data settings using transfer learning

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we have little knowledge of the transmission process, the level and duration of immunity to reinfection, or other parameters required to build realistic epidemiological models. Time series forecasts and machine learning, while less reliant on assumptions about the disease, require large amounts of data that are also not available in early stages of an outbreak. In this study, we examine how knowledge of related diseases can help make predictions of new diseases in data-scarce environments using transfer learning. We implement both an empirical and a theoretical approach. Using empirical data from Brazil, we compare how well different machine learning models transfer knowledge between two different disease pairs: (i) dengue and Zika, and (ii) influenza and COVID-19. In the theoretical analysis, we generate data using different transmission and recovery rates with an SIR compartmental model, and then compare the effectiveness of different transfer learning methods. We find that transfer learning offers the potential to improve predictions, even beyond a model based on data from the target disease, though the appropriate source disease must be chosen carefully. While imperfect, these models offer an additional input for decision makers during pandemic response.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important role in epidemic dynamics and is also affected by behavioral changes, but there are many situations in which real mobility data is incomplete or inaccessible. We present a model for epidemic spreading in temporal networks of mobile agents that incorporates local behavioral responses. Susceptible agents are allowed to move towards the opposite direction of infected agents in their neighborhood. We show that this mechanism considerably decreases the stationary prevalence when the spatial density of agents is low. However, for higher densities, the mechanism causes an abrupt phase transition, where a new bistable phase appears. We develop a semi-analytic approach for the case when the mobility is fast compared to the disease dynamics, and use it to argue that the bistability is caused by the emergence of spatial clusters of susceptible agents. Finally, we characterize the temporal networks formed in the fast mobility regime, showing how the degree distributions and other metrics are affected by the behavioral mechanism. Our work incorporates results previously known from adaptive networks into the population of mobile agents, which can be further developed to be used in mobility-driven models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains

Countries participate in global value chains by engaging in backward and forward transactions connecting multiple geographically dispersed production stages. Inspired by network theory, we model global trade as a multilayer network and study its power structure by investigating the tendency of eigenvector centrality to concentrate on a small fraction of countries, a phenomenon called localization transition. We show that the market underwent a significant structural variation in 2007 just before the global financial crisis. That year witnessed an abrupt repositioning of countries in the global value chains, and in particular a remarkable reversal of leading role between the two major economies, the US and China. We uncover the hierarchical structure of the multilayer network based on countries' time series of eigenvector centralities, and show that trade tends to concentrate between countries with different power dynamics, yet in geographical proximity. We further investigate the contribution of individual industries to countries' economic dominance, and show that also within industry variations in countries' market positioning took place in 2007. Moreover, we shed light on the crucial role that domestic trade played in the geopolitical landscape leading China to overtake the US and cement its status as leading economy of the global value chains. Our study shows how the 2008 crisis can offer insights to policy makers and governments on how to turn early structural signals of upcoming exogenous shocks into opportunities for redesigning countries' global roles in a changing geopolitical landscape.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

EEG functional connectivity and deep learning for automatic diagnosis of brain disorders: Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia

Mental disorders are among the leading causes of disability worldwide. The first step in treating these conditions is to obtain an accurate diagnosis, but the absence of established clinical tests makes this task challenging. Machine learning algorithms can provide a possible solution to this problem, as we describe in this work. We present a method for the automatic diagnosis of mental disorders based on the matrix of connections obtained from EEG time series and deep learning. We show that our approach can classify patients with Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia with a high level of accuracy. The comparison with the traditional cases, that use raw EEG time series, shows that our method provides the highest precision. Therefore, the application of deep neural networks on data from brain connections is a very promising method to the diagnosis of neurological disorders.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Non-uniform random graphs on the plane: A scaling study

We consider random geometric graphs on the plane characterized by a non-uniform density of vertices. In particular, we introduce a graph model where $n$ vertices are independently distributed in the unit disc with positions, in polar coordinates $(l,θ)$, obeying the probability density functions $ρ(l)$ and $ρ(θ)$. Here we choose $ρ(l)$ as a normal distribution with zero mean and variance $σ\in(0,\infty)$ and $ρ(θ)$ as an uniform distribution in the interval $θ\in [0,2π)$. Then, two vertices are connected by an edge if their Euclidian distance is less or equal than the connection radius $\ell$. We characterize the topological properties of this random graph model, which depends on the parameter set $(n,σ,\ell)$, by the use of the average degree $\left\langle k \right\rangle$ and the number of non-isolated vertices $V_\times$; while we approach their spectral properties with two measures on the graph adjacency matrix: the ratio of consecutive eigenvalue spacings $r$ and the Shannon entropy $S$ of eigenvectors. First we propose a heuristic expression for $\left\langle k(n,σ,\ell) \right\rangle$. Then, we look for the scaling properties of the normalized average measure $\left\langle \overline{X} \right\rangle$ (where $X$ stands for $V_\times$, $r$ and $S$) over graph ensembles. We demonstrate that the scaling parameter of $\left\langle \overline{V_\times} \right\rangle=\left\langle V_\times \right\rangle/n$ is indeed $\left\langle k \right\rangle$; with $\left\langle \overline{V_\times} \right\rangle \approx 1-\exp(-\left\langle k \right\rangle)$. Meanwhile, the scaling parameter of both $\left\langle \overline{r} \right\rangle$ and $\left\langle \overline{S} \right\rangle$ is proportional to $n^{-γ} \left\langle k \right\rangle$ with $γ\approx 0.16$.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2021

From subcritical behavior to elusive transitions in rumor models

Rumor and information spreading are natural processes that emerge from human-to-human interaction. Mathematically, this was explored in the popular Maki-Thompson model, where a phase transition was thought to be absent. Here, we show that a second-order phase transition is present in this model which is not captured by first-order mean-field approximations. Moreover, we propose and explore a modified version of the Maki-Thompson model that includes a forgetting mechanism. This modification changes the Markov chain's nature from infinitely many absorbing states in the classical setup to a single absorbing state. In practice, this allows us to use a plethora of analytic and numeric methods that permit the models' characterization. In particular, we find a counter-intuitive behavior in the subcritical regime of these models, where the lifespan of a rumor increases as the spreading rate drops, following a power-law relationship. This means that, even below the critical threshold, rumors can survive for a long time. Together, our findings suggest that the dynamic behavior of rumor models can be much richer than previously thought. Thus, we hope that our results motivate further research both analytically and numerically.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Discovering causal factors of drought in Ethiopia

Drought is a costly natural hazard, many aspects of which remain poorly understood. It has many contributory factors, driving its outset, duration, and severity, including land surface, anthropogenic activities, and, most importantly, meteorological anomalies. Prediction plays a crucial role in drought preparedness and risk mitigation. However, this is a challenging task at socio-economically critical lead times (1-2 years), because meteorological anomalies operate at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Among them, past studies have shown a correlation between the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly and the amount of precipitation in various locations in Africa. In its Eastern part, the cooling phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SST anomaly in the Indian ocean are correlated with the lack of rainfall. Given the intrinsic shortcomings of correlation coefficients, we investigate the association among SST modes of variability and the monthly fraction of grid points in Ethiopia, which are in drought conditions in terms of causality. Using the empirical extreme quantiles of precipitation distribution as a proxy for drought, We show that the level of SST second mode of variability in the prior year influences the occurrence of drought in Ethiopia. The causal link between these two variables has a negative coefficient that verifies the conclusion of past studies that rainfall deficiency in the Horn of Africa is associated with ENSO's cooling phase.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Spacing ratio characterization of the spectra of directed random networks

Previous literature on random matrix and network science has traditionally employed measures derived from nearest-neighbor level spacing distributions to characterize the eigenvalue statistics of random matrices. This approach, however, depends crucially on eigenvalue unfolding procedures, which in many situations represent a major hindrance due to constraints in the calculation, specially in the case of complex spectra. Here we study the spectra of directed networks using the recently introduced ratios between nearest- and next-to-nearest eigenvalue spacing, thus circumventing the shortcomings imposed by spectral unfolding. Specifically, we characterize the eigenvalue statistics of directed Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks by means of two adjacency matrix representations; namely (i) weighted non-Hermitian random matrices and (ii) a transformation on non-Hermitian adjacency matrices which produces weighted Hermitian matrices. For both representations, we find that the distribution of spacing ratios becomes universal for a fixed average degree, in accordance with undirected random networks. Furthermore, by calculating the average spacing ratio as a function of the average degree, we show that the spectral statistics of directed ER random networks undergoes a transition from Poisson to Ginibre statistics for model (i) and from Poisson to Gaussian Unitary Ensemble statistics for model (ii). Eigenvector delocalization effects of directed networks are also discussed.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2020

Power laws in the Roman Empire: a survival analysis

The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire suffered from many internal conflicts. Indeed, most emperors died violently, from assassination, suicide, or in battle. These internal conflicts produced patterns in the length of time that can be identified by statistical analysis. In this paper, we study the underlying patterns associated with the reign of the Roman emperors by using statistical tools of survival data analysis. We consider all the 175 Roman emperors and propose a new power-law model with change points to predict the time-to-violent-death of the Roman emperors. This model encompasses data in the presence of censoring and long-term survivors, providing more accurate predictions than previous models. Our results show that power-law distributions can also occur in survival data, as verified in other data types from natural and artificial systems, reinforcing the ubiquity of power law distributions. The generality of our approach paves the way to further related investigations not only in other ancient civilizations but also in applications in engineering and medicine.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Disease and information spreading at different speeds in multiplex networks

Nowadays, one of the challenges we face when carrying out modeling of epidemic spreading is to develop methods to control disease transmission. In this article we study how the spreading of knowledge of a disease affects the propagation of that disease in a population of interacting individuals. For that, we analyze the interaction between two different processes on multiplex networks: the propagation of an epidemic using the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics and the dissemination of information about the disease --and its prevention methods-- using the unaware-aware-unaware dynamics, so that informed individuals are less likely to be infected. Unlike previous related models where disease and information spread at the same time scale, we introduce here a parameter that controls the relative speed between the propagation of the two processes. We study the behavior of this model using a mean-field approach that gives results in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations on homogeneous complex networks. We find that increasing the rate of information dissemination reduces the disease prevalence, as one may expect. However, increasing the speed of the information process as compared to that of the epidemic process has the counter intuitive effect of increasing the disease prevalence. This result opens an interesting discussion about the effects of information spreading on disease propagation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Topological versus spectral properties of random geometric graphs

In this work we perform a detailed statistical analysis of topological and spectral properties of random geometric graphs (RGGs); a graph model used to study the structure and dynamics of complex systems embedded in a two dimensional space. RGGs, $G(n,\ell)$, consist of $n$ vertices uniformly and independently distributed on the unit square, where two vertices are connected by an edge if their Euclidian distance is less or equal than the connection radius $\ell \in [0,\sqrt{2}]$. To evaluate the topological properties of RGGs we chose two well-known topological indices, the Randić index $R(G)$ and the harmonic index $H(G)$. While we characterize the spectral and eigenvector properties of the corresponding randomly-weighted adjacency matrices by the use of random matrix theory measures: the ratio between consecutive eigenvalue spacings, the inverse participation ratios and the information or Shannon entropies $S(G)$. First, we review the scaling properties of the averaged measures, topological and spectral, on RGGs. Then we show that: (i) the averaged--scaled indices, $\left\langle R(G) \right\rangle$ and $\left\langle H(G) \right\rangle$, are highly correlated with the average number of non-isolated vertices $\left\langle V_\times(G) \right\rangle$; and (ii) surprisingly, the averaged--scaled Shannon entropy $\left\langle S(G) \right\rangle$ is also highly correlated with $\left\langle V_\times(G) \right\rangle$. Therefore, we suggest that very reliable predictions of eigenvector properties of RGGs could be made by computing topological indices.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2020

The role of time scale in the spreading of asymmetrically interacting diseases

Diseases and other contagion phenomena in nature and society can interact asymmetrically, such that one can benefit from the other, which in turn impairs the first, in analogy with predator-prey systems. Here, we consider two models for interacting disease-like dynamics with asymmetric interactions and different associated time scales. Using rate equations for homogeneously mixed populations, we show that the stationary prevalences and phase diagrams of each model behave differently with respect to variations of the relative time scales. We also characterize in detail the regime where transient oscillations are observed, a pattern that is inherent to asymmetrical interactions but often ignored in the literature. Our results contribute to a better understanding of disease dynamics in particular, and interacting processes in general, and could provide interesting insights for real-world applications, most notably, the interplay between the dynamics of fact-checked and fake news.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

High prevalence regimes in the pair quenched mean-field theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on networks

Reckoning of pairwise dynamical correlations significantly improves the accuracy of mean-field theories and plays an important role in the investigation of dynamical processes on complex networks. In this work, we perform a nonperturbative numerical analysis of the quenched mean-field theory (QMF) and the inclusion of dynamical correlations by means of the pair quenched mean-field (PQMF) theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on synthetic and real networks. We show that the PQMF considerably outperforms the standard QMF on synthetic networks of distinct levels of heterogeneity and degree correlations, providing extremely accurate predictions when the system is not too close to the epidemic threshold while the QMF theory deviates substantially from simulations for networks with a degree exponent $γ>2.5$. The scenario for real networks is more complicated, still with PQMF significantly outperforming the QMF theory. However, despite of high accuracy for most investigated networks, in a few cases PQMF deviations from simulations are not negligible. We found correlations between accuracy and average shortest path while other basic networks metrics seem to be uncorrelated with the theory accuracy. Our results show the viability of the PQMF theory to investigate the high prevalence regimes of recurrent-state epidemic processes on networks, a regime of high applicability.

physics.soc-ph↗