Frank Jotzo | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Global coal trade is resilient to maritime chokepoints

Maritime chokepoints and their potential disruption of global trade in energy find renewed attention. We analyse global trade in coal, and find that trade volumes and prices are highly resilient to maritime chokepoints. Feasible chokepoints do not truly sever supply from the seaborne market. Effects on costs and revenues are further moderated by relatively large potential for re-routing of bilateral trade flows, with countries switching to alternative suppliers or consumers. We assess costs to importers would rise by as little as 0.5 \$/t or less in case of closures of most feasible chokepoints. The exception is a restriction to maritime traffic in the South and East China Sea, which could raise costs by 10 \$/t for China, whilst reducing costs for other importers in the region by similar levels. Maritime chokepoints do create geographical separation of regional markets, with differentiated effects on costs to importers and revenues to exporters in different regions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

An installation-level model of China's coal sector shows how its decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce overseas coal imports

China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, and an emissions peak before 2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal for power generation and steel making. Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded domestic coal production and transport infrastructure. Here, we analyze effects of both these pressures on seaborne coal imports, with a purpose-built model of China's coal production, transport, and consumption system with installation-level geospatial and technical detail. This represents a 1000-fold increase in granularity versus earlier models, allowing representation of aspects that have previously been obscured. We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affects seaborne imports much more strongly than domestic supply. Recent expansions of rail and port capacity, which reduce costs of getting domestic coal to Southern coastal provinces, will further reduce demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonisation on coal imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall, because of expanded supply of cheap and high quality coking coal from neighbouring Mongolia.

econ.GN↗