arXiv subjects

Frank Lunkeit

Publications and source records attributed to Frank Lunkeit.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Local and Remote Forcing Factors of Heatwave in India -A Reanalysis and Adjoint model based study

Continental heatwaves can dramatically impact ecosystems and societies, e.g., by leading to excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. With a warming climate, their impacts potentially intensify globally, but the Indian subcontinent appears to be particularly vulnerable to such extreme events. In this study, we use reanalysis and the adjoint of the atmospheric model, PlaSim, to identify drivers of heatwaves occurring April and May over north-central India. Reanalysis results suggest that the existence of high temperatures in the study region is highly sensitive to the low local soil moisture which is observed weeks before a heatwave commences. Soil moisture variability in northern India is influenced by moisture transport from the west during winter--spring. Preceding dry soil moisture conditions can be associated with a `persistent jet' conditions linked to atmospheric dynamical changes in the North Atlantic region. An associated northward shift in the upper tropospheric zonal wind occurs approximately a month prior to the heatwaves, influencing the area and intensity of western disturbances embedded in the jet stream. This weakens the moisture flow from the north of the Arabian Sea, further reducing soil moisture levels and creating conditions conducive to heatwaves. An adjoint sensitivity analysis and forward model perturbation experiments confirm the causal relationships for the proposed heatwave development mechanism over north-central India, identifying the remote influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability on extreme temperatures in India. Our findings highlight the complex interplay of local and remote factors in heatwave development over India.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Resonant excitation of Kelvin waves by interactions of subtropical Rossby waves and the zonal mean flow

Equatorial Kelvin waves can be affected by subtropical Rossby wave dynamics. Previous research has demonstrated the Kelvin wave growth in response to subtropical forcing and the resonant growth due to eddy momentum flux convergence. However, the relative importance of the wave-mean flow and wave-wave interactions for the Kelvin wave growth compared to the direct wave excitation by the external forcing has not been made clear. This study demonstrates the resonant Kelvin wave excitation by interactions of subtropical Rossby waves and the mean flow using a spherical shallow-water model. The use of Hough harmonics as basis functions makes Rossby and Kelvin waves prognostic variables of the model and allows the quantification of terms contributing to their tendencies in physical and wave space. The simulations show that Kelvin waves are resonantly excited by interactions of Rossby waves and the balanced zonal mean flow in the subtropics, provided the Rossby and Kelvin wave frequencies, which are modified by the mean flow, match. The resonance mechanism is substantiated by analytical expressions. The Kelvin wave tendencies are caused by velocity and depth tendencies: The velocity tendencies due to the meridional advection of zonal mean velocity can be outweighed by the zonal advection of Rossby wave velocity or by the depth tendencies due to Rossby wave divergence. Identifying the resonant excitation mechanism in data should contribute to the quantification of Kelvin wave variability originating in the subtropics.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2020

Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

Geoengineering can control only some climatic variables but not others, resulting in side-effects. We investigate in an intermediate-complexity climate model the applicability of linear response theory (LRT) to the assessment of a geoengineering method. This application of LRT is twofold. First, our objective (O1) is to assess only the best possible geoengineering scenario by looking for a suitable modulation of solar forcing that can cancel out or otherwise modulate a climate change signal resulting from a rise in CO2 alone. Here we consider only the cancellation of the expected global mean surface air temperature. It is a straightforward inverse problem for this solar forcing, and, considering an infinite time period, we use LRT to provide the solution in the frequency domain in closed form. We provide procedures suitable for numerical implementation that apply to finite time periods too. Second, to be able to use LRT to quantify side-effects, the response with respect to uncontrolled observables, such as regional must be approximately linear. Our objective (O2) here is to assess the linearity of the response. We find that under geoengineering in the sense of (O1) the asymptotic response of the globally averaged temperature is actually not zero. This is due to an inaccurate determination of the linear susceptibilities. The error is due to a significant quadratic nonlinearity of the response. This nonlinear contribution can be easily removed, which results in much better estimates of the linear susceptibility, and, in turn, in a fivefold reduction in the global average surface temperature under geoengineering. This correction dramatically improves also the agreement of the spatial patterns of the predicted and of the true response. However, such an agreement is not perfect and is worse in the case of the precipitation patterns, as a result of greater degree of nonlinearity.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2019

A new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models

This work presents a novel diagnostic tool for studying the thermodynamics of the climate systems with a wide range of applications, from sensitivity studies to model tuning. It includes a number of modules for assessing the internal energy budget, the hydrological cycle, the Lorenz Energy Cycle and the material entropy production, respectively. The routine receives as inputs energy fluxes at surface and at the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA), for the computation of energy budgets at Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere as a residual. Meridional enthalpy transports are also computed from the divergence of the zonal mean energy budget fluxes; location and intensity of peaks in the two hemispheres are then provided as outputs. Rainfall, snowfall and latent heat fluxes are received as inputs for computing the water mass and latent energy budgets. If a land-sea mask is provided, the required quantities are separately computed over continents and oceans. The diagnostic tool also computes the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) and its storage/conversion terms as annual mean global and hemispheric values. In order to achieve this, one needs to provide as input three-dimensional daily fields of horizontal wind velocity and temperature in the troposphere. Two methods have been implemented for the computation of the material entropy production, one relying on the convergence of radiative heat fluxes in the atmosphere (indirect method), one combining the irreversible processes occurring in the climate system, particularly heat fluxes in the boundary layer, the hydrological cycle and the kinetic energy dissipation as retrieved from the residuals of the LEC. A version of the diagnostic tool is included in the Earth System Model eValuation Tool (ESMValTool) community diagnostics, in order to assess the performances of soon available CMIP6 model simulations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Climate sensitivity to ozone and its relevance on the habitability of Earth-like planets

Atmospheric ozone plays an important role on the temperature structure of the atmosphere. However, it has not been included in previous studies on the effect of an increasing solar radiation on the Earth's climate. Here we study the climate sensitivity to the presence/absence of ozone with an increasing solar forcing for the first time with a global climate model. We show that the warming effect of ozone increases both the humidity of the lower atmosphere and the surface temperature. Under the same solar irradiance, the mean surface temperature is 7 K higher than in an analog planet without ozone. Therefore, the moist greenhouse threshold, the state at which water vapor becomes abundant in the stratosphere, is reached at a lower solar irradiance (1572 Wm^-2 with respect to 1647 Wm^-2 in the case without ozone). Our results imply that ozone reduces the maximum solar irradiance at which Earth-like planets would remain habitable.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Dioxide and Moist Greenhouse threshold of Earth-like planets under an increasing solar forcing

Carbon dioxide is one of the major contributors to the radiative forcing, increasing both the temperature and the humidity of Earth's atmosphere. If the stellar irradiance increases and water becomes abundant in the stratosphere of an Earth-like planet, it will be dissociated and the resultant hydrogen will escape from the atmosphere. This state is called the moist greenhouse threshold (MGT). Using a global climate model (GCM) of intermediate complexity, we explore how to identify this state for different CO2 concentrations and including the radiative effect of atmospheric ozone for the first time. We show that the moist greenhouse threshold correlates with the inflection point in the water vapor mixing ratio in the stratosphere and a peak in the climate sensitivity. For CO2 concentrations between 560 ppm and 200 ppm, the moist greenhouse threshold is reached at a surface temperature of 320 K. Despite the higher simplicity of our model, our results are consistent with similar simulations without ozone by complex GCMs, suggesting that they are robust indicators of the MGT. We discuss the implications for inner edge of the habitable zone as well as the water loss timescales for Earth analog planets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Reconsidering the relationship of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon using ensembles in Earth system models

We study the relationship between the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We consider two simple variables: the Tahiti--Darwin sea-level pressure difference and the Northern Indian precipitation. We utilize ensembles converged to the system's snapshot attractor for analyzing possible changes (i) in the teleconnection between the fluctuations of the two variables, and (ii) in their climatic means. (i) With very high confidence, we detect an increase in the strength of the teleconnection, as a response to the forcing, in the MPI-ESM under historical forcing between 1890 and 2005, concentrated to the end of this period. We explain that our finding does not contradict instrumental observations, since their existing analyses regarding the nonstationarity of the teleconnection are either methodologically unreliable, or consider an ill-defined teleconnection concept. In the MPI-ESM we cannot reject stationarity between 2006 and 2099 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), and in a 110-year-long 1-percent pure CO2 scenario; neither can we in the CESM between 1960 and 2100 with historical forcing and RCP8.5. (ii) In the latter ensembles, the climatic mean is strongly displaced in the phase space projection spanned by the two variables. This displacement is nevertheless linear. However, the slope exhibits a strong seasonality, falsifying a hypothesis of a universal, emergent relationship between these two climatic means, excluding applicability in an emergent constraint.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2018

Stable equatorial ice belts at high obliquity in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the extent of the sea ice cover. For low values of irradiance the model simulates a Cryoplanet that has a perennial global sea ice cover. By increasing stellar irradiance, transitions occur to an Uncapped Cryoplanet with a perennial equatorial sea ice belt, and eventually to an Aquaplanet with no ice. Using an emulator model we find that the Uncapped Cryoplanet is a robust stable state for a range of irradiance and high obliquities and contrast earlier results that high-obliquity climate states with an equatorial ice belt may be unsustainable or unachievable. When the meridional ocean heat flux is strengthened, the parameter range permitting a stable Uncapped Cryoplanet decreases due to melting of equatorial sea ice. Beyond a critical threshold of meridional ocean heat flux, the perennial equatorial ice belt disappears. Therefore, a vigorous ocean circulation may render it unstable. Our results suggest that perennial equatorial ice cover is a viable climate state of a high-obliquity exoplanet. However, due to multiple equilibria, this state is only reached from more glaciated conditions, and not from less glaciated conditions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Fluctuation Analysis of the Atmospheric Energy Cycle

The atmosphere gains available potential energy by solar radiation and dissipates kinetic energy mainly in the atmospheric boundary layer. We analyze the fluctuations of the global mean energy cycle defined by Lorenz (1955) in a simulation with a simplified hydrostatic model. The energy current densities are well approximated by the generalized Gumbel distribution (Bramwell, Holdsworth and Pinton, 1998) and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In an attempt to assess the fluctuation relation of Evans, Cohen, and Morriss (1993) we define entropy production by the injected power and use the GEV location parameter as a reference state. The fluctuation ratio reveals a linear behavior in a finite range.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2017

Crisis of the Chaotic Attractor of a Climate Model: A Transfer Operator Approach

The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The approach of such bifurcations in the presence of noise can be inferred from the slowing down of the correlation decay. On the other hand, little is known about global bifurcations involving high-dimensional attractors with positive Lyapunov exponents. The global stability of chaotic attractors may be characterised by the spectral properties of the Koopman or the transfer operators governing the evolution of statistical ensembles. It has recently been shown that a boundary crisis in the Lorenz flow coincides with the approach to the unit circle of the eigenvalues of these operators associated with motions about the attractor, the stable resonances. A second type of resonances, the unstable resonances, is responsible for the decay of correlations and mixing on the attractor. In the deterministic case, those cannot be expected to be affected by general boundary crises. Here, however, we give an example of chaotic system in which slowing down of the decay of correlations of some observables does occur at the approach of a boundary crisis. The system considered is a high-dimensional, chaotic climate model of physical relevance. Moreover, coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators on a reduced space, constructed from a long time series of the system, give evidence that this behaviour is due to the approach of unstable resonances to the unit circle. That the unstable resonances are affected by the crisis can be physically understood from the fact that the process responsible for the instability, the ice-albedo feedback, is also active on the attractor. Implications regarding response theory and the design of early-warning signals are discussed.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2016

Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O($10^5$) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO$_2$ using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

The role of atmospheric greenhouse gases, orbital parameters, and southern ocean gateways: an idealized model study

A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global mean climate state, may have played a role for triggering climate transitions of the past (for example during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition and the build-up of the Antarctic Ice Sheet). Sensitivity simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are conducted to test these three forcings and their roles for the global climate. The simulations are carried out under idealized conditions to focus on the essentials. The combination of all three forcings triggers a climate transition which resembles the onset of the Antarctic glaciation. In particular, the temperatures in the southern high latitudes decrease and snow accumulates constantly. Moreover, the relative importance of each possible forcing is explored. All three of the mechanisms (atmospheric CO2 decrease, opening of the ocean gateways, and changing orbital parameters) cool the climate of the southern polar continent. The change induced by the orbital parameters depends strongly on the magnitude of the change in obliquity.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Global instability in the Ghil-Sellers model

The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system trajectories of transient dynamics, initialized between the stable states with respect to the mean temperature, are confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, one which connects the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. This constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by the equilibria depending on the solar strength. We construct new bifurcation diagrams in terms of quantities relevant for describing the thermodynamic disequilibrium, such as the temperature gradient and the material entropy production due to heat transport. We compare our results for the EBM to results for the intermediate complexity GCM PlaSim and find an interesting qualitative agreement.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

The Impact of Oceanic Heat Transport on the Atmospheric Circulation: a Thermodynamic Perspective

The present study investigates how global thermodynamic properties of the climate system are affected by the changes in the intensity of the imposed oceanic heat transport in an atmospheric general circulation model in aqua-planet configuration. Increasing the poleward oceanic heat transport results in an overall increase in the surface temperature and a decrease in the equator-to-pole surface temperature difference as a result of the ice-albedo feedback. Following the classical ansatz by Stone, the atmospheric heat transport changes in such a way that the total poleward heat transport remains almost unchanged. We also find that the efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport which suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production, as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperature, thus reducing the availability in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized earthlike aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is put on the Lorenz energy cycle and the atmospheric mean meridional circulation. The latter is analysed by means of the Kuo-Eliassen equation. The atmospheric heat transport compensates the imposed oceanic heat transport changes to a large extent in conjunction with significant modification of the general circulation. Up to a maximum about 3PW, an increase of the oceanic heat transport leads to an increase of the global mean near surface temperature and a decrease of its equator-to-pole gradient. For larger transports, the gradient is reduced further but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. A larger oceanic heat transport leads to a reduction of all reservoirs and conversions of the Lorenz energy cycle but of different relative magnitude for the individual components. The available potential energy of the zonal mean flow and its conversion to eddy available potential energy are affected most. Both Hadley and Ferrel cell show a decline for increasing oceanic heat transport with the Hadley cell being more sensitive. Both cells exhibit a poleward shift of their maxima, and the Hadley cell broadens for larger oceanic transports. The partitioning by means of the Kuo-Eliassen equation reveals that zonal mean diabatic heating and friction are the most important sources for changes of the Hadley cell while the behaviour of the Ferrell cell is mostly controlled by friction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time scales. Conceptually, our results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, our results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. Our results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Towards a Fluctuation Theorem in an Atmospheric Circulation Model

An investigation of the distribution of finite time trajectory divergence is performed on an Atmospheric Global Circulation Model. The distribution of the largest local Lyapunov exponent shows a significant probability for negative values over time spans up to 10 days. This effect is present for resolutions up to wave numbers l=42 (~ 250km). The probability for a negative local largest Lyapunov exponent decreases over time, similarly to the predictions of the Fluctuation Theorem for entropy production. The model used is hydrostatic with variable numbers of vertical levels and different horizontal resolutions.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2009

Thermodynamic Analysis of Snowball Earth Hysteresis Experiment: Efficiency, Entropy Production, and Irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect a substantial bistability: for a large range of values the realization of snowball (SB) or of warm (W) climate conditions depend on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine increases with decreasing solar constant in W climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in the SB regime. Instead, entropy production is increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about 4 times as large in the W branch than in the corresponding C state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system is much higher in the W conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the SB regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the W climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the transitions at the boundary of the bistable region based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the 2nd law of thermodynamics for auditing climate model and outline a set of parameterizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions.

physics.ao-ph↗