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Frank Shelly

Publications and source records attributed to Frank Shelly.

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Search For a Counterpart to the Subsolar Mass Gravitational Wave Candidate S251112cm

The recent candidate gravitational-wave (GW) alert from a compact object merger involving at least one subsolar mass (SSM) object has prompted questions about their origins. S251112cm is reported by LIGO/Virgo with a false alarm rate of 1 per 6.2 years, nearby luminosity distance $93 \pm 27$ Mpc, and probability of containing a SSM object of 100%. Such a system, if astrophysical, likely did not involve the supersolar neutron stars or black holes invoked to explain kilonovae. One must then also invoke hitherto unobserved and speculative models to produce SSM mergers which may have electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. We introduce a framework which vets and scores candidate counterparts to SSM GW events to inform follow-up in search of any among the zoo of potential EM transients: kilonovae, kilonovae-within-supernovae, super-kilonovae, or AGN flares from binary black hole mergers. We use a suite of telescopes to perform tiling, galaxy-targeted observations, and photometric/spectroscopic follow-up of promising candidates. In near-real time, we ingest candidates reported by the community, including some of the first observations reported by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. We vet and score a total of 456 candidates, including 67 from Rubin, but find no likely counterpart. We nonetheless highlight candidates which demonstrate the ability of our framework to distinguish between different transient types and describe strategies to maximize the chances of detecting a counterpart to the next SSM event. Our framework will be implemented in the forthcoming Multimessenger Tool for Rapid Object Vetting and Examination (TROVE).

astro-ph.HE

NEOMOD 3: The Debiased Size Distribution of Near Earth Objects

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model.

astro-ph.EP

NEOMOD 2: An Updated Model of Near-Earth Objects from a Decade of Catalina Sky Survey Observations

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data.

astro-ph.EP