arXiv subjects

Frauke Kreuter

Publications and source records attributed to Frauke Kreuter.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Pragmatics in the Era of Large Language Models: A Survey on Datasets, Evaluation, Opportunities and Challenges

Understanding pragmatics-the use of language in context-is crucial for developing NLP systems capable of interpreting nuanced language use. Despite recent advances in language technologies, including large language models, evaluating their ability to handle pragmatic phenomena such as implicatures and references remains challenging. To advance pragmatic abilities in models, it is essential to understand current evaluation trends and identify existing limitations. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of resources designed for evaluating pragmatic capabilities in NLP, categorizing datasets by the pragmatic phenomena they address. We analyze task designs, data collection methods, evaluation approaches, and their relevance to real-world applications. By examining these resources in the context of modern language models, we highlight emerging trends, challenges, and gaps in existing benchmarks. Our survey aims to clarify the landscape of pragmatic evaluation and guide the development of more comprehensive and targeted benchmarks, ultimately contributing to more nuanced and context-aware NLP models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Algorithmic Fidelity of Large Language Models in Generating Synthetic German Public Opinions: A Case Study

In recent research, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used to investigate public opinions. This study investigates the algorithmic fidelity of LLMs, i.e., the ability to replicate the socio-cultural context and nuanced opinions of human participants. Using open-ended survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Studies (GLES), we prompt different LLMs to generate synthetic public opinions reflective of German subpopulations by incorporating demographic features into the persona prompts. Our results show that Llama performs better than other LLMs at representing subpopulations, particularly when there is lower opinion diversity within those groups. Our findings further reveal that the LLM performs better for supporters of left-leaning parties like The Greens and The Left compared to other parties, and matches the least with the right-party AfD. Additionally, the inclusion or exclusion of specific variables in the prompts can significantly impact the models' predictions. These findings underscore the importance of aligning LLMs to more effectively model diverse public opinions while minimizing political biases and enhancing robustness in representativeness.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

AI Conversational Interviewing: Transforming Surveys with LLMs as Adaptive Interviewers

Traditional methods for eliciting people's opinions face a trade-off between depth and scale: structured surveys enable large-scale data collection but limit respondents' ability to voice their opinions in their own words, while conversational interviews provide deeper insights but are resource-intensive. This study explores the potential of replacing human interviewers with large language models (LLMs) to conduct scalable conversational interviews. Our goal is to assess the performance of AI Conversational Interviewing and to identify opportunities for improvement in a controlled environment. We conducted a small-scale, in-depth study with university students who were randomly assigned to a conversational interview by either AI or human interviewers, both employing identical questionnaires on political topics. Various quantitative and qualitative measures assessed interviewer adherence to guidelines, response quality, participant engagement, and overall interview efficacy. The findings indicate the viability of AI Conversational Interviewing in producing quality data comparable to traditional methods, with the added benefit of scalability. We publish our data and materials for re-use and present specific recommendations for effective implementation.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Human Preferences in Large Language Model Latent Space: A Technical Analysis on the Reliability of Synthetic Data in Voting Outcome Prediction

Generative AI (GenAI) is increasingly used in survey contexts to simulate human preferences. While many research endeavors evaluate the quality of synthetic GenAI data by comparing model-generated responses to gold-standard survey results, fundamental questions about the validity and reliability of using LLMs as substitutes for human respondents remain. Our study provides a technical analysis of how demographic attributes and prompt variations influence latent opinion mappings in large language models (LLMs) and evaluates their suitability for survey-based predictions. Using 14 different models, we find that LLM-generated data fails to replicate the variance observed in real-world human responses, particularly across demographic subgroups. In the political space, persona-to-party mappings exhibit limited differentiation, resulting in synthetic data that lacks the nuanced distribution of opinions found in survey data. Moreover, we show that prompt sensitivity can significantly alter outputs for some models, further undermining the stability and predictiveness of LLM-based simulations. As a key contribution, we adapt a probe-based methodology that reveals how LLMs encode political affiliations in their latent space, exposing the systematic distortions introduced by these models. Our findings highlight critical limitations in AI-generated survey data, urging caution in its use for public opinion research, social science experimentation, and computational behavioral modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Sources of Uncertainty in Supervised Machine Learning -- A Statisticians' View

Supervised machine learning and predictive models have achieved an impressive standard today, enabling us to answer questions that were inconceivable a few years ago. Besides these successes, it becomes clear, that beyond pure prediction, which is the primary strength of most supervised machine learning algorithms, the quantification of uncertainty is relevant and necessary as well. However, before quantification is possible, types and sources of uncertainty need to be defined precisely. While first concepts and ideas in this direction have emerged in recent years, this paper adopts a conceptual, basic science perspective and examines possible sources of uncertainty. By adopting the viewpoint of a statistician, we discuss the concepts of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which are more commonly associated with machine learning. The paper aims to formalize the two types of uncertainty and demonstrates that sources of uncertainty are miscellaneous and can not always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic. Drawing parallels between statistical concepts and uncertainty in machine learning, we emphasise the role of data and their influence on uncertainty.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Bridging the gap: Towards an Expanded Toolkit for AI-driven Decision-Making in the Public Sector

AI-driven decision-making systems are becoming instrumental in the public sector, with applications spanning areas like criminal justice, social welfare, financial fraud detection, and public health. While these systems offer great potential benefits to institutional decision-making processes, such as improved efficiency and reliability, these systems face the challenge of aligning machine learning (ML) models with the complex realities of public sector decision-making. In this paper, we examine five key challenges where misalignment can occur, including distribution shifts, label bias, the influence of past decision-making on the data side, as well as competing objectives and human-in-the-loop on the model output side. Our findings suggest that standard ML methods often rely on assumptions that do not fully account for these complexities, potentially leading to unreliable and harmful predictions. To address this, we propose a shift in modeling efforts from focusing solely on predictive accuracy to improving decision-making outcomes. We offer guidance for selecting appropriate modeling frameworks, including counterfactual prediction and policy learning, by considering how the model estimand connects to the decision-maker's utility. Additionally, we outline technical methods that address specific challenges within each modeling approach. Finally, we argue for the importance of external input from domain experts and stakeholders to ensure that model assumptions and design choices align with real-world policy objectives, taking a step towards harmonizing AI and public sector objectives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Understanding Jailbreak Success: A Study of Latent Space Dynamics in Large Language Models

Conversational large language models are trained to refuse to answer harmful questions. However, emergent jailbreaking techniques can still elicit unsafe outputs, presenting an ongoing challenge for model alignment. To better understand how different jailbreak types circumvent safeguards, this paper analyses model activations on different jailbreak inputs. We find that it is possible to extract a jailbreak vector from a single class of jailbreaks that works to mitigate jailbreak effectiveness from other semantically-dissimilar classes. This may indicate that different kinds of effective jailbreaks operate via a similar internal mechanism. We investigate a potential common mechanism of harmfulness feature suppression, and find evidence that effective jailbreaks noticeably reduce a model's perception of prompt harmfulness. These findings offer actionable insights for developing more robust jailbreak countermeasures and lay the groundwork for a deeper, mechanistic understanding of jailbreak dynamics in language models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Potential and Challenges of Evaluating Attitudes, Opinions, and Values in Large Language Models

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked wide interest in validating and comprehending the human-like cognitive-behavioral traits LLMs may capture and convey. These cognitive-behavioral traits include typically Attitudes, Opinions, Values (AOVs). However, measuring AOVs embedded within LLMs remains opaque, and different evaluation methods may yield different results. This has led to a lack of clarity on how different studies are related to each other and how they can be interpreted. This paper aims to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of recent works on the evaluation of AOVs in LLMs. Moreover, we survey related approaches in different stages of the evaluation pipeline in these works. By doing so, we address the potential and challenges with respect to understanding the model, human-AI alignment, and downstream application in social sciences. Finally, we provide practical insights into evaluation methods, model enhancement, and interdisciplinary collaboration, thereby contributing to the evolving landscape of evaluating AOVs in LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Missing Link: Allocation Performance in Causal Machine Learning

Automated decision-making (ADM) systems are being deployed across a diverse range of critical problem areas such as social welfare and healthcare. Recent work highlights the importance of causal ML models in ADM systems, but implementing them in complex social environments poses significant challenges. Research on how these challenges impact the performance in specific downstream decision-making tasks is limited. Addressing this gap, we make use of a comprehensive real-world dataset of jobseekers to illustrate how the performance of a single CATE model can vary significantly across different decision-making scenarios and highlight the differential influence of challenges such as distribution shifts on predictions and allocations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

"My Answer is C": First-Token Probabilities Do Not Match Text Answers in Instruction-Tuned Language Models

The open-ended nature of language generation makes the evaluation of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) challenging. One common evaluation approach uses multiple-choice questions (MCQ) to limit the response space. The model is then evaluated by ranking the candidate answers by the log probability of the first token prediction. However, first-tokens may not consistently reflect the final response output, due to model's diverse response styles such as starting with "Sure" or refusing to answer. Consequently, MCQ evaluation is not indicative of model behaviour when interacting with users. But by how much? We evaluate how aligned first-token evaluation is with the text output along several dimensions, namely final option choice, refusal rate, choice distribution and robustness under prompt perturbation. Our results show that the two approaches are severely misaligned on all dimensions, reaching mismatch rates over 60%. Models heavily fine-tuned on conversational or safety data are especially impacted. Crucially, models remain misaligned even when we increasingly constrain prompts, i.e., force them to start with an option letter or example template. Our findings i) underscore the importance of inspecting the text output as well and ii) caution against relying solely on first-token evaluation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Position: Insights from Survey Methodology can Improve Training Data

Whether future AI models are fair, trustworthy, and aligned with the public's interests rests in part on our ability to collect accurate data about what we want the models to do. However, collecting high-quality data is difficult, and few AI/ML researchers are trained in data collection methods. Recent research in data-centric AI has show that higher quality training data leads to better performing models, making this the right moment to introduce AI/ML researchers to the field of survey methodology, the science of data collection. We summarize insights from the survey methodology literature and discuss how they can improve the quality of training and feedback data. We also suggest collaborative research ideas into how biases in data collection can be mitigated, making models more accurate and human-centric.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

To share or not to share: What risks would laypeople accept to give sensitive data to differentially-private NLP systems?

Although the NLP community has adopted central differential privacy as a go-to framework for privacy-preserving model training or data sharing, the choice and interpretation of the key parameter, privacy budget $\varepsilon$ that governs the strength of privacy protection, remains largely arbitrary. We argue that determining the $\varepsilon$ value should not be solely in the hands of researchers or system developers, but must also take into account the actual people who share their potentially sensitive data. In other words: Would you share your instant messages for $\varepsilon$ of 10? We address this research gap by designing, implementing, and conducting a behavioral experiment (311 lay participants) to study the behavior of people in uncertain decision-making situations with respect to privacy-threatening situations. Framing the risk perception in terms of two realistic NLP scenarios and using a vignette behavioral study help us determine what $\varepsilon$ thresholds would lead lay people to be willing to share sensitive textual data - to our knowledge, the first study of its kind.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

ToPro: Token-Level Prompt Decomposition for Cross-Lingual Sequence Labeling Tasks

Prompt-based methods have been successfully applied to multilingual pretrained language models for zero-shot cross-lingual understanding. However, most previous studies primarily focused on sentence-level classification tasks, and only a few considered token-level labeling tasks such as Named Entity Recognition (NER) and Part-of-Speech (POS) tagging. In this paper, we propose Token-Level Prompt Decomposition (ToPro), which facilitates the prompt-based method for token-level sequence labeling tasks. The ToPro method decomposes an input sentence into single tokens and applies one prompt template to each token. Our experiments on multilingual NER and POS tagging datasets demonstrate that ToPro-based fine-tuning outperforms Vanilla fine-tuning and Prompt-Tuning in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, especially for languages that are typologically different from the source language English. Our method also attains state-of-the-art performance when employed with the mT5 model. Besides, our exploratory study in multilingual large language models shows that ToPro performs much better than the current in-context learning method. Overall, the performance improvements show that ToPro could potentially serve as a novel and simple benchmarking method for sequence labeling tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Annotation Sensitivity: Training Data Collection Methods Affect Model Performance

When training data are collected from human annotators, the design of the annotation instrument, the instructions given to annotators, the characteristics of the annotators, and their interactions can impact training data. This study demonstrates that design choices made when creating an annotation instrument also impact the models trained on the resulting annotations. We introduce the term annotation sensitivity to refer to the impact of annotation data collection methods on the annotations themselves and on downstream model performance and predictions. We collect annotations of hate speech and offensive language in five experimental conditions of an annotation instrument, randomly assigning annotators to conditions. We then fine-tune BERT models on each of the five resulting datasets and evaluate model performance on a holdout portion of each condition. We find considerable differences between the conditions for 1) the share of hate speech/offensive language annotations, 2) model performance, 3) model predictions, and 4) model learning curves. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the annotation instrument which has received little attention in the machine learning literature. We call for additional research into how and why the instrument impacts the annotations to inform the development of best practices in instrument design.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Seeing ChatGPT Through Students' Eyes: An Analysis of TikTok Data

Advanced large language models like ChatGPT have gained considerable attention recently, including among students. However, while the debate on ChatGPT in academia is making waves, more understanding is needed among lecturers and teachers on how students use and perceive ChatGPT. To address this gap, we analyzed the content on ChatGPT available on TikTok in February 2023. TikTok is a rapidly growing social media platform popular among individuals under 30. Specifically, we analyzed the content of the 100 most popular videos in English tagged with #chatgpt, which collectively garnered over 250 million views. Most of the videos we studied promoted the use of ChatGPT for tasks like writing essays or code. In addition, many videos discussed AI detectors, with a focus on how other tools can help to transform ChatGPT output to fool these detectors. This also mirrors the discussion among educators on how to treat ChatGPT as lecturers and teachers in teaching and grading. What is, however, missing from the analyzed clips on TikTok are videos that discuss ChatGPT producing content that is nonsensical or unfaithful to the training data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Classification ensembles for multivariate functional data with application to mouse movements in web surveys

We propose new ensemble models for multivariate functional data classification as combinations of semi-metric-based weak learners. Our models extend current semi-metric-type methods from the univariate to the multivariate case, propose new semi-metrics to compute distances between functions, and consider more flexible options for combining weak learners using stacked generalisation methods. We apply these ensemble models to identify respondents' difficulty with survey questions, with the aim to improve survey data quality. As predictors of difficulty, we use mouse movement trajectories from the respondents' interaction with a web survey, in which several questions were manipulated to create two scenarios with different levels of difficulty.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Fairness in Algorithmic Profiling: A German Case Study

Algorithmic profiling is increasingly used in the public sector as a means to allocate limited public resources effectively and objectively. One example is the prediction-based statistical profiling of job seekers to guide the allocation of support measures by public employment services. However, empirical evaluations of potential side-effects such as unintended discrimination and fairness concerns are rare. In this study, we compare and evaluate statistical models for predicting job seekers' risk of becoming long-term unemployed with respect to prediction performance, fairness metrics, and vulnerabilities to data analysis decisions. Focusing on Germany as a use case, we evaluate profiling models under realistic conditions by utilizing administrative data on job seekers' employment histories that are routinely collected by German public employment services. Besides showing that these data can be used to predict long-term unemployment with competitive levels of accuracy, we highlight that different classification policies have very different fairness implications. We therefore call for rigorous auditing processes before such models are put to practice.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Distributive Justice and Fairness Metrics in Automated Decision-making: How Much Overlap Is There?

The advent of powerful prediction algorithms led to increased automation of high-stake decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources such as government spending and welfare support. This automation bears the risk of perpetuating unwanted discrimination against vulnerable and historically disadvantaged groups. Research on algorithmic discrimination in computer science and other disciplines developed a plethora of fairness metrics to detect and correct discriminatory algorithms. Drawing on robust sociological and philosophical discourse on distributive justice, we identify the limitations and problematic implications of prominent fairness metrics. We show that metrics implementing equality of opportunity only apply when resource allocations are based on deservingness, but fail when allocations should reflect concerns about egalitarianism, sufficiency, and priority. We argue that by cleanly distinguishing between prediction tasks and decision tasks, research on fair machine learning could take better advantage of the rich literature on distributive justice.

stat.ML↗