arXiv subjects

Fred Espen Benth

Publications and source records attributed to Fred Espen Benth.

56 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models

We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increments process for the low-frequency dynamics, and model the large fluctuations by a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process. The model allows for analytic futures prices, and we apply these to model and estimate the whole market consistently. Besides standard parameter estimation, an estimation procedure is suggested, where we fit the non-stationary trend using futures data with long time until delivery, and a robust $L^1$-filter to find the states of the CARMA process. The procedure also involves the empirical and theoretical risk premiums which -- as a by-product -- are also estimated. We apply this procedure to data from the German electricity exchange EEX, where we split the empirical analysis into base load and peak load prices. We find an overall negative risk premium for the base load futures contracts, except for contracts close to delivery, where a small positive risk premium is detected. The peak load contracts, on the other hand, show a clear positive risk premium, when they are close to delivery, while the contracts in the longer end also have a negative premium.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2011

Levy process simulation by stochastic step functions

We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for simulation of probability distributions based on stochastic step functions, and compare to the traditional Metropolis/Hastings method. Unlike the latter, the step function algorithm can produce an uncorrelated Markov chain. We apply this method to the simulation of Levy processes, for which simulation of uncorrelated jumps are essential. We perform numerical tests consisting of simulation from probability distributions, as well as simulation of Levy process paths. The Levy processes include a jump-diffusion with a Gaussian Levy measure, as well as jump-diffusion approximations of the infinite activity NIG and CGMY processes. To increase efficiency of the step function method, and to decrease correlations in the Metropolis/Hastings method, we introduce adaptive hybrid algorithms which employ uncorrelated draws from an adaptive discrete distribution defined on a space of subdivisions of the Levy measure space. The nonzero correlations in Metropolis/Hastings simulations result in heavy tails for the Levy process distribution at any fixed time. This problem is eliminated in the step function approach. In each case of the Gaussian, NIG and CGMY processes, we compare the distribution at t=1 with exact results and note the superiority of the step function approach.

math.PR↗