arXiv subjects

Fred Shone

Publications and source records attributed to Fred Shone.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Black box behavioural modelling: Predicting human activity schedules with a deep conditional generative approach

Modelling the complexity and diversity of human activity scheduling behaviour is inherently challenging. We demonstrate ActVAE, a deep conditional-generative machine learning approach for the modelling of activity schedules. Suitable for application in activity-based demand modelling frameworks, schedules are modelled as conditional on individual, household and schedule information, such as age, income, and access to public transit. We demonstrate the rapid generation of precise, realistic and diverse schedules dependent on input labels. We extensively evaluate and compare model capabilities against baseline models using a joint-density estimation framework. In addition to providing a novel alternative to existing scheduling approaches, our work highlights the value of explicitly modelling the randomness of complex and diverse human behaviours.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Synthesising Activity Participations and Scheduling with Deep Generative Machine Learning

Using a deep generative machine learning approach, we synthesise human activity participations and scheduling; i.e. the choices of what activities to participate in and when. Activity schedules are a core component of many applied transport, energy, and epidemiology models. Our data-driven approach directly learns the distributions resulting from human preferences and scheduling logic without the need for complex interacting combinations of sub-models and custom rules. This makes our approach significantly faster and simpler to operate than existing approaches to synthesise or anonymise schedule data. We additionally contribute a novel schedule representation and a comprehensive evaluation framework. We evaluate a range of schedule encoding and deep model architecture combinations. The evaluation shows our approach can rapidly generate large, diverse, novel, and realistic synthetic samples of activity schedules.

cs.LG↗