arXiv subjects

Frederic Chevallier

Publications and source records attributed to Frederic Chevallier.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Low latency global carbon budget reveals a continuous decline of the land carbon sink during the 2023/24 El Nino event

The high growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2023 was found to be caused by a severe reduction of the global net land carbon sink. Here we update the global CO2 budget from January 1st to July 1st 2024, during which El Ni\~no drought conditions continued to prevail in the Tropics but ceased by March 2024. We used three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), machine learning emulators of ocean models, three atmospheric inversions driven by observations from the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite, and near-real-time fossil CO2 emissions estimates. In a one-year period from July 2023 to July 2024 covering the El Ni\~no 2023/24 event, we found a record-high CO2 growth rate of 3.66~$\pm$~0.09 ppm~yr$^{-1}$ ($\pm$~1 standard deviation) since 1979. Yet, the CO2 growth rate anomaly obtained after removing the long term trend is 1.1 ppm~yr$^{-1}$, which is marginally smaller than the July--July growth rate anomalies of the two major previous El Ni\~no events in 1997/98 and 2015/16. The atmospheric CO2 growth rate anomaly was primarily driven by a 2.24 GtC~yr$^{-1}$ reduction in the net land sink including 0.3 GtC~yr$^{-1}$ of fire emissions, partly offset by a 0.38 GtC~yr$^{-1}$ increase in the ocean sink relative to the 2015--2022 July--July mean. The tropics accounted for 97.5\% of the land CO2 flux anomaly, led by the Amazon (50.6\%), central Africa (34\%), and Southeast Asia (8.2\%), with extra-tropical sources in South Africa and southern Brazil during April--July 2024. Our three DGVMs suggest greater tropical CO2 losses in 2023/2024 than during the two previous large El Ni\~no in 1997/98 and 2015/16, whereas inversions indicate losses more comparable to 2015/16. Overall, this update of the low latency budget highlights the impact of recent El Ni\~no droughts in explaining the high CO2 growth rate until July 2024.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023

In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Satellite-based estimates of decline and rebound in China's CO$_2$ emissions during COVID-19 pandemic

Changes in CO$_2$ emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic have been estimated from indicators on activities like transportation and electricity generation. Here, we instead use satellite observations together with bottom-up information to track the daily dynamics of CO$_2$ emissions during the pandemic. Unlike activity data, our observation-based analysis can be independently evaluated and can provide more detailed insights into spatially-explicit changes. Specifically, we use TROPOMI observations of NO$_2$ to deduce ten-day moving averages of NO$_x$ and CO$_2$ emissions over China, differentiating emissions by sector and province. Between January and April 2020, China's CO$_2$ emissions fell by 11.5% compared to the same period in 2019, but emissions have since rebounded to pre-pandemic levels owing to the fast economic recovery in provinces where industrial activity is concentrated.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Carbon Monitor: a near-real-time daily dataset of global CO2 emission from fossil fuel and cement production

We constructed a near-real-time daily CO2 emission dataset, namely the Carbon Monitor, to monitor the variations of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production since January 1st 2019 at national level with near-global coverage on a daily basis, with the potential to be frequently updated. Daily CO2 emissions are estimated from a diverse range of activity data, including: hourly to daily electrical power generation data of 29 countries, monthly production data and production indices of industry processes of 62 countries/regions, daily mobility data and mobility indices of road transportation of 416 cities worldwide. Individual flight location data and monthly data were utilised for aviation and maritime transportation sectors estimates. In addition, monthly fuel consumption data that corrected for daily air temperature of 206 countries were used for estimating the emissions from commercial and residential buildings. This Carbon Monitor dataset manifests the dynamic nature of CO2 emissions through daily, weekly and seasonal variations as influenced by workdays and holidays, as well as the unfolding impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Carbon Monitor near-real-time CO2 emission dataset shows a 7.8% decline of CO2 emission globally from Jan 1st to Apr 30th in 2020 when compared with the same period in 2019, and detects a re-growth of CO2 emissions by late April which are mainly attributed to the recovery of economy activities in China and partial easing of lockdowns in other countries. Further, this daily updated CO2 emission dataset could offer a range of opportunities for related scientific research and policy making.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions

The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions. Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions from January to April 2020 was of 7.8% (938 Mt CO2 with a +6.8% of 2-{\sigma} uncertainty) when compared with the period last year. In addition other emerging estimates of COVID impacts based on monthly energy supply or estimated parameters, this study contributes to another step that constructed the near-real-time daily CO2 emission inventories based on activity from power generation (for 29 countries), industry (for 73 countries), road transportation (for 406 cities), aviation and maritime transportation and commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). The estimates distinguished the decline of CO2 due to COVID-19 from the daily, weekly and seasonal variations as well as the holiday events. The COVID-related decreases in CO2 emissions in road transportation (340.4 Mt CO2, -15.5%), power (292.5 Mt CO2, -6.4% compared to 2019), industry (136.2 Mt CO2, -4.4%), aviation (92.8 Mt CO2, -28.9%), residential (43.4 Mt CO2, -2.7%), and international shipping (35.9Mt CO2, -15%). Regionally, decreases in China were the largest and earliest (234.5 Mt CO2,-6.9%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) (138.3 Mt CO2, -12.0%) and the U.S. (162.4 Mt CO2, -9.5%). The declines of CO2 are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks, but the calculated signal of emissions decreases (about 1Gt CO2) will have little impacts (less than 0.13ppm by April 30, 2020) on the overserved global CO2 concertation. However, with observed fast CO2 recovery in China and partial re-opening globally, our findings suggest the longer-term effects on CO2 emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.

econ.GN↗