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Frederic Goguikian

Publications and source records attributed to Frederic Goguikian.

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Constrained Portfolio Optimization via Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with XY-Mixers and Trotterized Initialization: A Hybrid Approach for Direct Indexing

Portfolio optimization under strict cardinality constraints is a combinatorial challenge that defies classical convex optimization techniques, particularly in the context of "Direct Indexing" and ESG-constrained mandates. In the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) offers a promising hybrid approach. However, standard QAOA implementations utilizing transverse field mixers often fail to strictly enforce hard constraints, necessitating soft penalties that distort the energy landscape. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of a constraint-preserving QAOA formulation against Simulated Annealing (SA) and Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP). We implement a specific QAOA ansatz utilizing a Dicke state initialization and an XY-mixer Hamiltonian that strictly preserves the Hamming weight of the solution, ensuring only valid portfolios of size K are explored. Furthermore, we introduce a Trotterized parameter initialization schedule inspired by adiabatic quantum computing to mitigate the "Barren Plateau" problem. Backtesting on a basket of 10 US equities over 2025 reveals that our QAOA approach achieves a Sharpe Ratio of 1.81, significantly outperforming Simulated Annealing (1.31) and HRP (0.98). We further analyze the operational implications of the algorithm's high turnover (76.8%), discussing the trade-offs between theoretical optimality and implementation costs in institutional settings.

quant-ph

Non-Convex Portfolio Optimization via Energy-Based Models: A Comparative Analysis Using the Thermodynamic HypergRaphical Model Library (THRML) for Index Tracking

Portfolio optimization under cardinality constraints transforms the classical Markowitz mean-variance problem from a convex quadratic problem into an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. This paper introduces a novel approach using THRML (Thermodynamic HypergRaphical Model Library), a JAX-based library for building and sampling probabilistic graphical models that reformulates index tracking as probabilistic inference on an Ising Hamiltonian. Unlike traditional methods that seek a single optimal solution, THRML samples from the Boltzmann distribution of high-quality portfolios using GPU-accelerated block Gibbs sampling, providing natural regularization against overfitting. We implement three key innovations: (1) dynamic coupling strength that scales inversely with market volatility (VIX), adapting diversification pressure to market regimes; (2) rebalanced bias weights prioritizing tracking quality over momentum for index replication; and (3) sector-aware post-processing ensuring institutional-grade diversification. Backtesting on a 100-stock S and P 500 universe from 2023 to 2025 demonstrates that THRML achieves 4.31 percent annualized tracking error versus 5.66 to 6.30 percent for baselines, while simultaneously generating 128.63 percent total return against the index total return of 79.61 percent. The Diebold-Mariano test confirms statistical significance with p less than 0.0001 across all comparisons. These results position energy-based models as a promising paradigm for portfolio construction, bridging statistical mechanics and quantitative finance.

q-fin.CP