arXiv subjects

G. M. Horstmann

Publications and source records attributed to G. M. Horstmann.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reappraising the Elatina series: What if the Solar Interpretation Were Correct?

We revisit the sedimentary laminae from the Neoproterozoic Elatina Formation of South Australia. These were first interpreted as varves driven by solar activity and later as tidalites formed by tidal processes, although the debate has remained open. This series exhibits remarkably consistent periodicities, including a primary and a secondary period of approximately 12 and 314 laminae, respectively. Our present analysis reveals a statistically significant negative correlation between the length of a cycle and the amplitude of the subsequent cycle. By analyzing the residuals of the series' minima with respect to a linear trend and calculating Dicke's ratio, we show that this series exhibits a high degree of phase stability, except for a single break-point which possibly indicates a 90° phase shift. As these findings are difficult to reconcile with the tidal model, we reconsider the original interpretation as solar-driven sedimentation and tentatively discuss it in terms of a recently developed synchronization model of the solar dynamo. This model is used to calculate the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn that would be required to explain the 12-year cycle, when interpreted as a modified solar Schwabe cycle, and the 314-year cycle, when interpreted as a prolonged Suess-de Vries cycle. Assuming that the sums of the angular momenta of Jupiter and Saturn and Venus and Earth are pairwise conserved, we find that the planetary orbits change surprisingly little. The plausibility of such changes over a period of seven hundred million years is discussed in light of solar system dynamics.

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arXiv2026

An optimized tidal-trigger model of the QBO, and some implications for the Carrington event

Magneto-Rossby waves in the solar tachocline are currently being discussed as a potential cause of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). By analyzing sequences of ground-level enhancement (GLE) events and S-flares, the dominant period of the QBO was recently shown to be close to 1.723 years, which is the dominant beat between the periods of the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter. We improve upon this model by taking into account the dependence of the three tidally-triggered magneto-Rossby waves on the actual strength of the toroidal field at the tachocline, which we infer from the averaged monthly sunspot number. When optimizing the parameters of this magnetic-field dependence, the correlation of the tidal-forcing function with the 109 extreme solar events reaches values of up to 0.8. This is much higher than the corresponding value for the field-independent tidal forcing function (appr. 0.4), and also higher than the correlation with the sunspot number (appr. 0.56). Based on this improved model, we discuss some interesting parallels between the Carrington event of 1859 and the clustering of strong solar events in summer and autumn 1989. We also make some cautious forecasts for the remainder of cycle 25.

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arXiv2026

Tidal triggers and the predictability of solar activity

Magneto-Rossby waves in the solar tachocline are currently considered to be one of the main determinants of solar activity. In particular, they can give rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The latter was recently shown to be dominated by a phase-stable period of around 1.7 years. By analyzing 72 ground-level enhancement (GLE) events and 37 S-flares, we determine that this period is close to 1.723 years. This, in turn, is the dominant beat between the periods of the spring tides of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, which are suspected to synchronize not only the QBO, but also the 11.07-year Schwabe cycle. We demonstrate that recent events, such as the solar storm of 2024 May 10 and the strong X-flare of 2026 February 1, align well with maxima of the combined tidal forcing.

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arXiv2025

Adding further pieces to the synchronization puzzle: QBO, bimodality, and phase jumps

This work builds on a recently developed self-consistent synchronization model of the solar dynamo which attempts to explain Rieger-type periods, the Schwabe/Hale cycle and the Suess-de Vries and Gleissberg cycles in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. We start again from the basic concept that the spring tides of the three pairs of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter excite magneto-Rossby waves at the solar tachocline. While the quadratic action of the sum of these three waves comprises the secondary beat period of 11.07 years, the main focus is now on the action of the even more pronounced period of 1.723 years. Our dynamo model provides oscillations with exactly that period, which is also typical for the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Most remarkable is its agreement with Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events which preferentially occur in the positive phase of an oscillation with a period of 1.724 years. While bimodality of the sunspot distribution is shown to be a general feature of synchronization, it becomes most strongly expressed under the influence of the QBO. This may explain the observation that the solar activity is relatively subdued when compared to that of other sun-like stars. We also discuss anomalies of the solar cycle, and subsequent phase jumps by 180 degrees. In this connection it is noted that the very 11.07-year beat period is rather sensitive to the time-averaging of the quadratic functional of the waves and prone to phase jumps of 90 degrees. On this basis, we propose an alternative explanation of the observed 5.5-year phase jumps in algae-related data from the North Atlantic and Lake Holzmaar that were hitherto attributed to optimal growth conditions.

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arXiv2023

Rieger, Schwabe, Suess-de Vries: The Sunny Beats of Resonance

We propose a self-consistent explanation of Rieger-type periodicities, the Schwabe cycle, and the Suess-de Vries cycle of the solar dynamo in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. Starting on the high-frequency side, we show that the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter are able to excite magneto-Rossby waves which can be linked with typical Rieger-type periods. We argue then that the 11.07-year beat period of those magneto-Rossby waves synchronizes an underlying conventional $α-Ω$-dynamo, by periodically changing either the field storage capacity in the tachocline or some portion of the $α$-effect therein. We also strengthen the argument that the Suess-de Vries cycle appears as an 193-year beat period between the 22.14-year Hale cycle and a spin-orbit coupling effect related with the 19.86-year rosette-like motion of the Sun around the barycenter.

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arXiv2022

Tidally Forced Planetary Waves in the Tachocline of Solar-like Stars

Can atmospheric waves in planet-hosting solar-like stars substantially resonate to tidal forcing? Substantially at a level of impacting the space weather or even of being dynamo-relevant? In particular, low-frequency Rossby waves, which have been detected in the solar near-surface layers, are predestined at responding to sunspot cycle-scale perturbations. In this paper, we seek to address these questions as we formulate a forced wave model for the tachocline layer, which is widely considered as the birthplace of several magnetohydrodynamic planetary waves, i.e., Rossby, inertia-gravity (Poincaré), Kelvin, Alfvén and gravity waves. The tachocline is modeled as a shallow plasma atmosphere with an effective free surface on top that we describe within the Cartesian $β$-plane approximation. As a novelty to former studies, we equip the governing equations with a conservative tidal potential and a linear friction law to account for dissipation. We combine the linearized governing equations to one decoupled wave equation, which facilitates an easily approachable analysis. Analytical results are presented and discussed within several interesting free, damped and forced wave limits for both mid-latitude and equatorially trapped waves. For the idealized case of a single tide generating body following a circular orbit, we derive an explicit analytic solution that we apply to our Sun for estimating leading-order responses to Jupiter. Our analysis reveals that Rossby waves resonating to low-frequency perturbations can potentially reach considerable velocity amplitudes in the order of $10^1 - 10^2\, {\rm cm}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$, which, however, strongly rely on the yet unknown total dissipation.

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