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G. Peskir

Publications and source records attributed to G. Peskir.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Embedding laws in diffusions by functions of time

We present a constructive probabilistic proof of the fact that if $B=(B_t)_{t\ge0}$ is standard Brownian motion started at $0$, and $μ$ is a given probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$ such that $μ(\{0\})=0$, then there exists a unique left-continuous increasing function $b:(0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}\cup\{+\infty\}$ and a unique left-continuous decreasing function $c:(0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}\cup\{-\infty\}$ such that $B$ stopped at $τ_{b,c}=\inf\{t>0\vert B_t\ge b(t)$ or $B_t\le c(t)\}$ has the law $μ$. The method of proof relies upon weak convergence arguments arising from Helly's selection theorem and makes use of the Lévy metric which appears to be novel in the context of embedding theorems. We show that $τ_{b,c}$ is minimal in the sense of Monroe so that the stopped process $B^{τ_{b,c}}=(B_{t\wedgeτ_{b,c}})_{t\ge0}$ satisfies natural uniform integrability conditions expressed in terms of $μ$. We also show that $τ_{b,c}$ has the smallest truncated expectation among all stopping times that embed $μ$ into $B$. The main results extend from standard Brownian motion to all recurrent diffusion processes on the real line.

math.PR

Predicting the Last Zero of Brownian Motion with Drift

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^μ=(B_t^μ)_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $μ\in IR$ and letting $g$ denote the last zero of $B^μ$ before $T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem V_*=\inf_{0\le τ\le T}\mathsf {E}\:|\:g-τ| where the infimum is taken over all stopping times $τ$ of $B^μ$. Reducing the optimal prediction problem to a parabolic free-boundary problem and making use of local time-space calculus techniques, we show that the following stopping time is optimal: τ_*=\inf {t\in [0,T] | B_t^μ \le b_-(t) or B_t^μ \ge b_+(t)} where the function $t\mapsto b_-(t)$ is continuous and increasing on $[0,T]$ with $b_-(T)=0$, the function $t\mapsto b_+(t)$ is continuous and decreasing on $[0,T]$ with $b_+(T)=0$, and the pair $b_-$ and $b_+$ can be characterised as the unique solution to a coupled system of nonlinear Volterra integral equations. This also yields an explicit formula for $V_*$ in terms of $b_-$ and $b_+$. If $μ=0$ then $b_-=-b_+$ and there is a closed form expression for $b_{\pm}$ as shown in [10] using the method of time change from [4]. The latter method cannot be extended to the case when $μ\ne 0$ and the present paper settles the remaining cases using a different approach.

math.PR

The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^μ=(B_t^μ)_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $μ\in \mathbb{R}$ and letting $S_t^μ=\max_{0\le s\le t}B_s^μ$ for $0\le t\le T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem: \[V=\inf_{0\le τ\le T}\mathsf{E}(B_τ^μ-S_T^μ)^2\] where the infimum is taken over all stopping times $τ$ of $B^μ$. Reducing the optimal prediction problem to a parabolic free-boundary problem we show that the following stopping time is optimal: \[τ_*=\inf \{t_*\le t\le T\mid b_1(t)\le S_t^μ-B_t^μ\le b_2(t)\}\] where $t_*\in [0,T)$ and the functions $t\mapsto b_1(t)$ and $t\mapsto b_2(t)$ are continuous on $[t_*,T]$ with $b_1(T)=0$ and $b_2(T)=1/2μ$. If $μ>0$, then $b_1$ is decreasing and $b_2$ is increasing on $[t_*,T]$ with $b_1(t_*)=b_2(t_*)$ when $t_*\ne 0$. Using local time-space calculus we derive a coupled system of nonlinear Volterra integral equations of the second kind and show that the pair of optimal boundaries $b_1$ and $b_2$ can be characterized as the unique solution to this system. This also leads to an explicit formula for $V$ in terms of $b_1$ and $b_2$. If $μ\le 0$, then $t_*=0$ and $b_2\equiv +\infty$ so that $τ_*$ is expressed in terms of $b_1$ only. In this case $b_1$ is decreasing on $[z_*,T]$ and increasing on $[0,z_*)$ for some $z_*\in [0,T)$ with $z_*=0$ if $μ=0$, and the system of two Volterra equations reduces to one Volterra equation. If $μ=0$, then there is a closed form expression for $b_1$. This problem was solved in [Theory Probab. Appl. 45 (2001) 125--136] using the method of time change (i.e., change of variables). The method of time change cannot be extended to the case when $μ\ne 0$ and the present paper settles the remaining cases using a different approach.

math.PR