arXiv subjects

G. Tarle

Publications and source records attributed to G. Tarle.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps I: validation on simulations

Beyond-two-point statistics contain additional information on cosmological as well as astrophysical and observational (systematics) parameters. In this methodology paper we provide an end-to-end simulation-based analysis of a set of Gaussian and non-Gaussian weak lensing statistics using detailed mock catalogues of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement: 1) second and third moments; 2) wavelet phase harmonics (WPH); 3) the scattering transform (ST). Our analysis is fully based on simulations, it spans a space of seven $νw$CDM cosmological parameters, and it forward models the most relevant sources of systematics of the data (masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration). We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a likelihood-free-inference approach. We validate the pipeline extensively, and we find that WPH exhibits the strongest performance when combined with second moments, followed by ST. and then by third moments. The combination of all the different statistics further enhances constraints with respect to second moments, up to 25 per cent, 15 per cent, and 90 per cent for $S_8$, $Ω_{\rm m}$, and the Figure-Of-Merit ${\rm FoM_{S_8,Ω_{\rm m}}}$, respectively. We further find that non-Gaussian statistics improve constraints on $w$ and on the amplitude of intrinsic alignment with respect to second moments constraints. The methodological advances presented here are suitable for application to Stage IV surveys from Euclid, Rubin-LSST, and Roman with additional validation on mock catalogues for each survey. In a companion paper we present an application to DES Year 3 data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search using DECam for Gravitational Wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Collaboration observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of $\sim 7$ more Binary Neutron Stars alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require $>1$ meter telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the Dark Energy Camera during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT2017gfo we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the Dark Energy Camera is $\sim 80\%$ at the nominal binary neutron star gravitational wave detection limit for the next LVK observing run (190 Mpc), which corresponds to a $\sim 30\%$ improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events ($\sim 330$ Mpc), we reach a $\sim 60\%$ probability of detection, a factor of $\sim 2$ increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT2017gfo, we find that we can reach $\sim 90\%$ probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of $\sim 20 \%$, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow-up events by $\sim 20\%$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Mis-centering calibration and X-ray-richness scaling relations in redMaPPer clusters

We use Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) clusters with archival X-ray data from XMM-Newton and Chandra to assess the centering performance of the redMaPPer cluster finder and to measure key richness observable scaling relations. In terms of centering, we find that 10-20% of redMaPPer clusters are miscentered with no significant difference in bins of low versus high richness ($20<λ<40$ and $λ>40$) or redshift ($0.2<z<0.4$ and $0.4 <z < 0.65$). We also investigate the richness bias induced by miscentering. The dominant reasons for miscentering include masked or missing data and the presence of other bright galaxies in the cluster; for half of the miscentered clusters the correct central was one of the other possible centrals identified by redMaPPer, while for $\sim 40$% of miscentered clusters the correct central is not a redMaPPer member with most of these cases due to masking. In addition, we fit the scaling relations between X-ray temperature and richness and between X-ray luminosity and richness. We find a T$_X$-$λ$ scatter of $0.21 \pm 0.01$. While the scatter in T$_X$-$λ$ is consistent in bins of redshift, we do find modestly different slopes with high-redshift clusters displaying a somewhat shallower relation. Splitting based on richness, we find a marginally larger scatter for our lowest richness bin, $20 < λ< 40$. The X-ray properties of detected, serendipitous clusters are generally consistent with those for targeted clusters, but the depth of the X-ray data for undetected clusters is insufficient to judge whether they are X-ray underluminous in all but one case.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Chemical Analysis of the Brightest Star of the Cetus II Ultra-Faint Dwarf Galaxy Candidate

We present a detailed chemical abundance analysis of the brightest star in the ultra-faint dwarf (UFD) galaxy candidate Cetus II from high-resolution Magellan/MIKE spectra. For this star, DES J011740.53-173053, abundances or upper limits of 18 elements from Carbon to Europium are derived. Its chemical abundances generally follow those of other UFD galaxy stars, with a slight enhancement of the alpha-elements (Mg, Si, and Ca) and low neutron-capture element (Sr, Ba, Eu) abundances supporting the classification of Cetus II as a likely UFD. The star exhibits lower Sc, Ti, and V abundances than Milky Way (MW) halo stars with similar metallicity. This signature is consistent with yields from a supernova (SN) originating from a star with a mass of ~11.2 solar masses. In addition, the star has a Potassium abundance of [K/Fe] = 0.81 which is somewhat higher than the K abundances of MW halo stars with similar metallicity, a signature which is also present in a number of UFD galaxies. A comparison including globular clusters (GC) and stellar stream stars suggests that high K is a specific characteristic for some UFD galaxy stars and can thus be used to help classify objects as UFD galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Cosmological constraints from the tomography of DES-Y3 galaxies with CMB lensing from ACT DR4

We present a measurement of the cross-correlation between the MagLim galaxies selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first three years of observations (Y3) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 4 (DR4), reconstructed over $\sim 436$ sq.deg. of the sky. Our galaxy sample, which covers $\sim 4143$ sq.deg., is divided into six redshift bins spanning the redshift range of $0.20<z<1.05$. We adopt a blinding procedure until passing all consistency and systematics tests. After imposing scale cuts for the cross-power spectrum measurement, we reject the null hypothesis of no correlation at 9.1σ. We constrain cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of galaxy and CMB lensing-galaxy power spectra considering a flat \LCDM model, marginalized over 23 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. We find the clustering amplitude $S_8\equiv σ_8 (Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.75^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$. In addition, we constrain the linear growth of cosmic structure as a function of redshift. Our results are consistent with recent DES Y3 analyses and suggest a preference for a lower $S_8$ compared to results from measurements of CMB anisotropies by the Planck satellite, although at a mild level ($< 2 σ$) of statistical significance.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

SPT-SZ MCMF: An extension of the SPT-SZ catalog over the DES region

We present an extension to a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect (SZE) selected cluster catalog based on observations from the South Pole Telescope (SPT); this catalog extends to lower signal-to-noise than the previous SPT-SZ catalog and therefore includes lower mass clusters. Optically derived redshifts, centers, richnesses and morphological parameters together with catalog contamination and completeness statistics are extracted using the multi-component matched filter algorithm (MCMF) applied to the S/N>4 SPT-SZ candidate list and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) photometric galaxy catalog. The main catalog contains 811 sources above S/N=4, has 91% purity and is 95% complete with respect to the original SZE selection. It contains 50% more total clusters and twice as many clusters above z=0.8 in comparison to the original SPT-SZ sample. The MCMF algorithm allows us to define subsamples of the desired purity with traceable impact on catalog completeness. As an example, we provide two subsamples with S/N>4.25 and S/N>4.5 for which the sample contamination and cleaning-induced incompleteness are both as low as the expected Poisson noise for samples of their size. The subsample with S/N>4.5 has 98% purity and 96% completeness, and will be included in a combined SPT cluster and DES weak-lensing cosmological analysis. We measure the number of false detections in the SPT-SZ candidate list as function of S/N, finding that it follows that expected from assuming Gaussian noise, but with a lower amplitude compared to previous estimates from simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Rates and properties of type Ia supernovae in galaxy clusters within the Dark Energy Survey

We identify 66 photometrically classified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) that have occurred within red-sequence selected galaxy clusters. We compare light-curve and host galaxy properties of the cluster SNe to 1024 DES SNe Ia located in field galaxies, the largest comparison of two such samples at high redshift (z > 0.1). We find that cluster SN light curves decline faster than those in the field (97.7 per cent confidence). However, when limiting these samples to host galaxies of similar colour and mass, there is no significant difference in the SN light curve properties. Motivated by previous detections of a higher-normalised SN Ia delay time distribution in galaxy clusters, we measure the intrinsic rate of SNe Ia in cluster and field environments. We find the average ratio of the SN Ia rate per galaxy between high mass ($10\leq\log\mathrm{(M_{*}/M_{\odot})} \leq 11.25$) cluster and field galaxies to be $0.594 \pm0.068$. This difference is mass-dependent, with the ratio declining with increasing mass, which suggests that the stellar populations in cluster hosts are older than those in field hosts. We show that the mass-normalised rate (or SNe per unit mass) in massive-passive galaxies is consistent between cluster and field environments. Additionally, both of these rates are consistent with rates previously measured in clusters at similar redshifts. We conclude that in massive-passive galaxies, which are the dominant hosts of cluster SNe, the cluster DTD is comparable to the field.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Building an Efficient Cluster Cosmology Software Package for Modeling Cluster Counts and Lensing

We introduce a software suite developed for galaxy cluster cosmological analysis with the Dark Energy Survey Data. Cosmological analyses based on galaxy cluster number counts and weak-lensing measurements need efficient software infrastructure to explore an increasingly large parameter space, and account for various cosmological and astrophysical effects. Our software package is designed to model the cluster observables in a wide-field optical survey, including galaxy cluster counts, their averaged weak-lensing masses, or the cluster's averaged weak-lensing radial signals. To ensure maximum efficiency, this software package is developed in C++ in the CosmoSIS software framework, making use of the CUBA integration library. We also implement a testing and validation scheme to ensure the quality of the package. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this development by applying the software to the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 galaxy cluster cosmological data sets, and acquired cosmological constraints that are consistent with the fiducial Dark Energy Survey analysis.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

The Intrinsic Alignment of Red Galaxies in DES Y1 redMaPPer Galaxy Clusters

Clusters of galaxies are sensitive to the most nonlinear peaks in the cosmic density field. The weak gravitational lensing of background galaxies by clusters can allow us to infer their masses. However, galaxies associated with the local environment of the cluster can also be intrinsically aligned due to the local tidal gradient, contaminating any cosmology derived from the lensing signal. We measure this intrinsic alignment in Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 redMaPPer clusters. We find evidence of a non-zero mean radial alignment of galaxies within clusters between redshift 0.1-0.7. We find a significant systematic in the measured ellipticities of cluster satellite galaxies that we attribute to the central galaxy flux and other intracluster light. We attempt to correct this signal, and fit a simple model for intrinsic alignment amplitude ($A_{\textrm{IA}}$) to the measurement, finding $A_{\textrm{IA}}=0.15\pm 0.04$, when excluding data near the edge of the cluster. We find a significantly stronger alignment of the central galaxy with the cluster dark matter halo at low redshift and with higher richness and central galaxy absolute magnitude (proxies for cluster mass). This is an important demonstration of the ability of large photometric data sets like DES to provide direct constraints on the intrinsic alignment of galaxies within clusters. These measurements can inform improvements to small-scale modeling and simulation of the intrinsic alignment of galaxies to help improve the separation of the intrinsic alignment signal in weak lensing studies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Intra-Cluster Light from Redshift 0.2 to 0.5

Using the full six years of imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey, we study the surface brightness profiles of galaxy cluster central galaxies and intra-cluster light. We apply a ``stacking'' method to over four thousand galaxy clusters identified by the redMaPPer cluster finding algorithm in the redshift range of 0.2 to 0.5. This yields high signal-to-noise radial profile measurements of the central galaxy and intra-cluster light out to 1 Mpc from the cluster center. Using redMaPPer richness as a cluster mass indicator, we find that the intra-cluster light brightness has a strong mass dependence throughout the 0.2 to 0.5 redshift range, and the dependence grows stronger at a larger radius. In terms of redshift evolution, we find some evidence that the central galaxy, as well as the diffuse light within the transition region between the cluster central galaxy and intra-cluster light within 80 kpc from the center, may be growing over time. At larger radii, more than 80 kpc away from the cluster center, we do not find evidence of additional redshift evolution beyond the cluster mass dependence, which is consistent with the findings from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulation. We speculate that the major driver of intra-cluster light growth, especially at large radii, is associated with cluster mass growth. Finally, we find that the color of the cluster central galaxy and intra-cluster light displays a radial gradient that becomes bluer at a larger radius, which is consistent with a stellar stripping and disruption origin of intra-cluster light as suggested by simulation studies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The PSZ-MCMF catalogue of Planck clusters over the DES region

We present the first systematic follow-up of Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) selected candidates down to signal-to-noise (S/N) of 3 over the 5000 deg$^2$ covered by the Dark Energy Survey. Using the MCMF cluster confirmation algorithm, we identify optical counterparts, determine photometric redshifts and richnesses and assign a parameter, $f_{\rm cont}$, that reflects the probability that each SZE-optical pairing represents a random superposition of physically unassociated systems rather than a real cluster. The new PSZ-MCMF cluster catalogue consists of 853 MCMF confirmed clusters and has a purity of 90%. We present the properties of subsamples of the PSZ-MCMF catalogue that have purities ranging from 90% to 97.5%, depending on the adopted $f_{\rm cont}$ threshold. Halo mass estimates $M_{500}$, redshifts, richnesses, and optical centers are presented for all PSZ-MCMF clusters. The PSZ-MCMF catalogue adds 589 previously unknown Planck identified clusters over the DES footprint and provides redshifts for an additional 50 previously published Planck selected clusters with S/N>4.5. Using the subsample with spectroscopic redshifts, we demonstrate excellent cluster photo-$z$ performance with an RMS scatter in $Δz/(1+z)$ of 0.47%. Our MCMF based analysis allows us to infer the contamination fraction of the initial S/N>3 Planck selected candidate list, which is ~50%. We present a method of estimating the completeness of the PSZ-MCMF cluster sample. In comparison to the previously published Planck cluster catalogues. this new S/N>3 MCMF confirmed cluster catalogue populates the lower mass regime at all redshifts and includes clusters up to z$\sim$1.3.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

The Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect with ACT, DES, and BOSS: a Novel Hybrid Estimator

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ and tSZ) effects probe the abundance and thermodynamics of ionized gas in galaxies and clusters. We present a new hybrid estimator to measure the kSZ effect by combining cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy maps with photometric and spectroscopic optical survey data. The method interpolates a velocity reconstruction from a spectroscopic catalog at the positions of objects in a photometric catalog, which makes it possible to leverage the high number density of the photometric catalog and the precision of the spectroscopic survey. Combining this hybrid kSZ estimator with a measurement of the tSZ effect simultaneously constrains the density and temperature of free electrons in the photometrically selected galaxies. Using the 1000 deg2 of overlap between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 5, the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we detect the kSZ signal at 4.8$σ$ and reject the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 5.1$σ$. This corresponds to 2.0$σ$ per 100,000 photometric objects with a velocity field based on a spectroscopic survey with 1/5th the density of the photometric catalog. For comparison, a recent ACT analysis using exclusively spectroscopic data from BOSS measured the kSZ signal at 2.1$σ$ per 100,000 objects. Our derived constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the galaxy halos are consistent with previous measurements. With future surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we expect that this hybrid estimator could result in measurements with significantly better signal-to-noise than those that rely on spectroscopic data alone.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Beyond the 3rd moment: A practical study of using lensing convergence CDFs for cosmology with DES Y3

Widefield surveys of the sky probe many clustered scalar fields -- such as galaxy counts, lensing potential, gas pressure, etc. -- that are sensitive to different cosmological and astrophysical processes. Our ability to constrain such processes from these fields depends crucially on the statistics chosen to summarize the field. In this work, we explore the cumulative distribution function (CDF) at multiple scales as a summary of the galaxy lensing convergence field. Using a suite of N-body lightcone simulations, we show the CDFs' constraining power is modestly better than that of the 2nd and 3rd moments of the field, as they approximately capture the information from all moments of the field in a concise data vector. We then study the practical aspects of applying the CDFs to observational data, using the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) data as an example, and compute the impact of different systematics on the CDFs. The contributions from the point spread function are 2-3 orders of magnitude below the cosmological signal, while those from reduced shear approximation contribute $\lesssim 1\%$ to the signal. Source clustering effects and baryon imprints contribute $1-10\%$. Enforcing scale cuts to limit systematics-driven biases in parameter constraints degrades these constraints a noticeable amount, and this degradation is similar for the CDFs and the moments. We also detect correlations between the observed convergence field and the shape noise field at $13σ$. We find that the non-Gaussian correlations in the noise field must be modeled accurately to use the CDFs, or other statistics sensitive to all moments, as a rigorous cosmology tool.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Program: Mg II Lags and R-L relation

The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity ($R-L$ relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At $z \sim 1-2$, where AGN activity peaks, the $R-L$ relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg II line. We present 25 Mg II lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES) RM project based on six years of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the re-scaled, re-sampled versions of the observed lightcurves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg II lags and extends the $R-L$ relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal{R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the $R-L$ relation. The best-fit Mg II $R-L$ relation has a slope $α= 0.39 \pm 0.08$ with an intrinsic scatter $σ_{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$. The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H$β$ $R-L$ relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new $R-L$ relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H$β$ $R-L$ relation. Our new $R-L$ relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher-order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We demonstrate and measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher-order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher-order statistics for certain analysis choices. Source clustering effects are larger at small scales and for statistics applied to combinations of low and high redshift samples, and diminish at high redshift. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a $p$-value of $p=4\times10^{-3}$ (2.6 $σ$) using third-order map moments and $p=3\times10^{-11}$ (6.5 $σ$) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either be included in the model or minimized through \textit{ad-hoc} procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses (using map moments and peaks) were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher-order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher-order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables (including phase harmonics and scattering transforms), and deep learning or field level summary statistics of weak lensing maps. We provide recipes both to minimise the impact of source clustering and to incorporate source clustering effects into forward-modelled mock data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Cool Cores in Clusters of Galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey

We search for the presence of cool cores in optically-selected galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and investigate their prevalence as a function of redshift and cluster richness. Clusters were selected from the redMaPPer analysis of three years of DES observations that have archival Chandra X-ray observations, giving a sample of 99 clusters with a redshift range of $0.11 < z < 0.87$ and a richness range of $25 < λ< 207$. Using the X-ray data, the core temperature was compared to the outer temperature to identify clusters where the core temperature is a factor of 0.7 or less than the outer temperature. We found a cool core fraction of approximately 20% with no significant trend in the cool core fraction with either redshift or richness.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

The XMM Cluster Survey: Exploring scaling relations and completeness of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 redMaPPer cluster catalogue

We cross-match and compare characteristics of galaxy clusters identified in observations from two sky surveys using two completely different techniques. One sample is optically selected from the analysis of three years of Dark Energy Survey observations using the redMaPPer cluster detection algorithm. The second is X-ray selected from XMM observations analysed by the XMM Cluster Survey. The samples comprise a total area of 57.4 deg$^2$, bounded by the area of 4 contiguous XMM survey regions that overlap the DES footprint. We find that the X-ray selected sample is fully matched with entries in the redMaPPer catalogue, above $λ>$20 and within 0.1$< z <$0.9. Conversely, only 38\% of the redMaPPer catalogue is matched to an X-ray extended source. Next, using 120 optically clusters and 184 X-ray selected clusters, we investigate the form of the X-ray luminosity-temperature ($L_{X}-T_{X}$), luminosity-richness ($L_{X}-λ$) and temperature-richness ($T_{X}-λ$) scaling relations. We find that the fitted forms of the $L_{X}-T_{X}$ relations are consistent between the two selection methods and also with other studies in the literature. However, we find tentative evidence for a steepening of the slope of the relation for low richness systems in the X-ray selected sample. When considering the scaling of richness with X-ray properties, we again find consistency in the relations (i.e., $L_{X}-λ$ and $T_{X}-λ$) between the optical and X-ray selected samples. This is contrary to previous similar works that find a significant increase in the scatter of the luminosity scaling relation for X-ray selected samples compared to optically selected samples.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Photometry of outer Solar System objects from the Dark Energy Survey I: photometric methods, light curve distributions and trans-Neptunian binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the $>800$ trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modelling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light curve amplitudes $A$ is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution $q(A)$ of light curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e. evidence ratio $<0.01$) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude $6<H_r<8.2$ are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same $H_r$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this $H_r$ range have variability consistent with either the HC's or CC's. DES TNOs with $H_r<6$ are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-$H_r$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

astro-ph.EP↗