arXiv subjects

G. Toth

Publications and source records attributed to G. Toth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Advancing Heliophysics and Space Weather Modeling through Open Science

We present a community-wide effort to develop a strategy and action plan to advance heliophysics and space weather modeling through open science. While open science has the potential to enhance the quality and pace of scientific discovery, its application to scientific modeling requires more careful consideration regarding open data and open software guidelines, as scientific models differ significantly from data analysis software. We gathered feedback from modeling teams worldwide through a living survey and discussion sessions at the 2024 Open Science Workshop in College Park, USA, and at the 2025 COSPAR ISWAT Working Meeting in Cape Canaveral, USA. We complement these findings with lessons learned from almost 25 years of experience at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center in enabling open use of models. We identify key roadblocks in current open science practices and guidelines and offer recommendations for future progress across four overlapping themes: open use of models and simulation results, open validation, open development, and open collaboration. An essential outcome of the discussion is the need for model developers and model users to speak with a united voice and promote the role of models in future open science efforts. We introduce a new cross-domain community initiative called the Heliophysics Open Modeling Environment (HOME), which will be integrated as an overarching activity within COSPAR ISWAT. HOME will serve as a platform for modelers and model users to work together, facilitate community modeling, improve the scientific return on modeling investment, and advance understanding, modeling, and forecasting in heliophysics and space weather.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

The development of a split-tail heliosphere and the role of non-ideal processes: a comparison of the BU and Moscow models

Global models of the heliosphere are critical tools used in the interpretation of heliospheric observations. There are several three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliospheric models that rely on different strategies and assumptions. Until now only one paper has compared global heliosphere models, but without magnetic field effects. We compare the results of two different MHD models, the BU and Moscow models. Both models use identical boundary conditions to compare how different numerical approaches and physical assumptions contribute to the heliospheric solution. Based on the different numerical treatments of discontinuities, the BU model allows for the presence of magnetic reconnection, while the Moscow model does not. Both models predict collimation of the solar outflow in the heliosheath by the solar magnetic field and produce a split-tail where the solar magnetic field confines the charged solar particles into distinct north and south columns that become lobes. In the BU model, the ISM flows between the two lobes at large distances due to MHD instabilities and reconnection. Reconnection in the BU model at the port flank affects the draping of the interstellar magnetic field in the immediate vicinity of the heliopause. Different draping in the models cause different ISM pressures, yielding different heliosheath thicknesses and boundary locations, with the largest effects at high latitudes. The BU model heliosheath is 15% thinner and the heliopause is 7% more inwards at the north pole relative to the Moscow model. These differences in the two plasma solutions may manifest themselves in energetic neutral atom measurements of the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The Confinement of the Heliosheath Plasma by the Solar Magnetic Field as Revealed by Energetic Neutral Atom Simulations

Traditionally, the solar magnetic field has been considered to have a negligible effect in the outer regions of the heliosphere. Recent works have shown that the solar magnetic field may play a crucial role in collimating the plasma in the heliosheath. Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observations of the heliotail indicated a latitudinal structure varying with energy in the energetic neutral atom (ENA) fluxes. At energies ~1 keV, the ENA fluxes show an enhancement at low latitudes and a deficit of ENAs near the poles. At energies >2.7 keV, ENA fluxes had a deficit within low latitudes, and lobes of higher ENA flux near the poles. This ENA structure was initially interpreted to be a result of the latitudinal profile of the solar wind during solar minimum. We extend the work of Kornbleuth et al. (2018) by using solar minimum-like conditions and the recently developed SHIELD model. The SHIELD model couples the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) plasma solution with a kinetic description of neutral hydrogen. We show that while the latitudinal profile of the solar wind during solar minimum contributes to the lobes in ENA maps, the collimation by the solar magnetic field is important in creating and shaping the two high latitude lobes of enhanced ENA flux observed by IBEX. This is the first work to explore the effect of the changing solar magnetic field strength on ENA maps. Our findings suggest that IBEX is providing the first observational evidence of the collimation of the heliosheath plasma by the solar magnetic field.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

A gray-box model for a probabilistic estimate of regional ground magnetic perturbations: Enhancing the NOAA operational Geospace model with machine learning

We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field $dB/dt$ exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important information that is physically relevant to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC), which are electric currents { associated to} sudden changes in the Earth's magnetic field due to Space Weather events. The model follows a 'gray-box' approach by combining the output of a physics-based model with machine learning. Specifically, we combine the University of Michigan's Geospace model that is operational at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, with a boosted ensemble of classification trees. We discuss the problem of re-calibrating the output of the decision tree to obtain reliable probabilities. The performance of the model is assessed by typical metrics for probabilistic forecasts: Probability of Detection and False Detection, True Skill Statistic, Heidke Skill Score, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. We show that the ML enhanced algorithm consistently improves all the metrics considered.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Coupled MHD -- Hybrid Simulations of Space Plasmas

Heliospheric plasmas require multi-scale and multi-physics considerations. On one hand, MHD codes are widely used for global simulations of the solar-terrestrial environments, but do not provide the most elaborate physical description of space plasmas. Hybrid codes, on the other hand, capture important physical processes, such as electric currents and effects of finite Larmor radius, but they can be used locally only, since the limitations in available computational resources do not allow for their use throughout a global computational domain. In the present work, we present a new coupled scheme which allows to switch blocks in the block-adaptive grids from fluid MHD to hybrid simulations, without modifying the self-consistent computation of the electromagnetic fields acting on fluids (in MHD simulation) or charged ion macroparticles (in hybrid simulation). In this way, the hybrid scheme can refine the description in specified regions of interest without compromising the efficiency of the global MHD code.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2018

Hall Effect in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Magnetohydrodynamics simulations have been carried out in studying the solar wind and cometary plasma interactions for decades. Various plasma boundaries have been simulated and compared well with observations for comet 1P/Halley. The Rosetta mission, which studies comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, challenges our understanding of the solar wind and comet interactions. The Rosetta Plasma Consortium observed regions of very weak magnetic field outside the predicted diamagnetic cavity. In this paper, we simulate the inner coma with the Hall magnetohydrodynamics equations and show that the Hall effect is important in the inner coma environment. The magnetic field topology becomes complex and magnetic reconnection occurs on the dayside when the Hall effect is taken into account. The magnetic reconnection on the dayside can generate weak magnetic filed regions outside the global diamagnetic cavity, which may explain the Rosetta Plasma Consortium observations. We conclude that the substantial change in the inner coma environment is due to the fact that the ion inertial length (or gyro radius) is not much smaller than the size of the diamagnetic cavity.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

The Twist of the Draped Interstellar Magnetic Field Ahead of the Heliopause: A Magnetic Reconnection Driven Rotational Discontinuity

Based on the difference between the orientation of the interstellar $B_{ISM}$ and the solar magnetic fields, there was an expectation that the magnetic field direction would rotate dramatically across the heliopause (HP). However, the Voyager 1 spacecraft measured very little rotation across the HP. Previously we showed that the $B_{ISM}$ twists as it approaches the HP and acquires a strong T component (East-West). Here we establish that reconnection in the eastern flank of the heliosphere is responsible for the twist. On the eastern flank the solar magnetic field has twisted into the positive N direction and reconnects with the Southward pointing component of the $B_{ISM}$. Reconnection drives a rotational discontinuity (RD) that twists the $B_{ISM}$ into the -T direction and propagates upstream in the interstellar medium towards the nose. The consequence is that the N component of $B_{ISM}$ is reduced in a finite width band upstream of the HP. Voyager 1 currently measures angles ($\delta=sin^{-1}(B_{N}/B)$) close to solar values. We present MHD simulations to support this scenario, suppressing reconnection in the nose region while allowing it in the flanks, consistent with recent ideas about reconnection suppression from diamagnetic drifts. The jump in plasma $\beta$ (the plasma to magnetic pressure) across the nose of HP is much greater than in the flanks because the heliosheath $\beta$ is greater there than in the flanks. Large-scale reconnection is therefore suppressed in the nose but not at the flanks. Simulation data suggest that $B_{ISM}$ will return to its pristine value $10-15~AU$ past the HP.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Chromosphere to 1 AU Simulation of the 2011 March 7th Event: A Comprehensive Study of Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

We perform and analyze results of a global magnetohydrodyanmic (MHD) simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfv\'en Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and extends to 24 R$_{\odot}$. Coupling AWSoM to an inner heliosphere (IH) model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulations), optically thin radiative cooling, and Alfv\'en-wave turbulence that accelerates and heats the solar wind. The Alfv\'en-wave description is physically self-consistent, including non-Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low (GL) analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond STEREO A. A detailed comparison study is performed using remote as well as \textit{in situ} observations. Although the flux rope structure is not compared directly due to lack of relevant ejecta observation at 1 AU in this event, our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven extreme ultraviolet (EUV) waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, "double-front" in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., shock propagation direction, shock properties at STEREO A).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Data Constrained Coronal Mass Ejections in A Global Magnetohydrodynamics Model

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO/LASCO, and STEREO/COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low (EEGGL), we present a method to derive Gibson-Low (GL) flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms are shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 AU (see companion paper by Jin et al. 2016b).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Stellar Winds on the Main-Sequence I: Wind Model

Aims: We develop a method for estimating the properties of stellar winds for low-mass main-sequence stars between masses of 0.4 and 1.1 solar masses at a range of distances from the star. Methods: We use 1D thermal pressure driven hydrodynamic wind models run using the Versatile Advection Code. Using in situ measurements of the solar wind, we produce models for the slow and fast components of the solar wind. We consider two radically different methods for scaling the base temperature of the wind to other stars: in Model A, we assume that wind temperatures are fundamentally linked to coronal temperatures, and in Model B, we assume that the sound speed at the base of the wind is a fixed fraction of the escape velocity. In Paper II of this series, we use observationally constrained rotational evolution models to derive wind mass loss rates. Results: Our model for the solar wind provides an excellent description of the real solar wind far from the solar surface, but is unrealistic within the solar corona. We run a grid of 1200 wind models to derive relations for the wind properties as a function of stellar mass, radius, and wind temperature. Using these results, we explore how wind properties depend on stellar mass and rotation. Conclusions: Based on our two assumptions about the scaling of the wind temperature, we argue that there is still significant uncertainty in how these properties should be determined. Resolution of this uncertainty will probably require both the application of solar wind physics to other stars and detailed observational constraints on the properties of stellar winds. In the final section of this paper, we give step by step instructions for how to apply our results to calculate the stellar wind conditions far from the stellar surface.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Propagation into the heliosheath of a large-scale solar wind disturbance bounded by a pair of shocks

After the termination shock (TS) crossing, the Voyager 2 spacecraft has been observing strong variations of the magnetic field and solar wind parameters in the heliosheath. Anomalous cosmic rays, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays present strong intensity fluctuations. Several works suggested that the fluctuations might be attributed to spatial variations within the heliosheath. Additionally, the variability of the solar wind in this region is caused by different temporal events that occur near the Sun and propagate to the outer heliosphere. To understand the spatial and temporal effects in the heliosheath, it is important to study these effects separately. In this work we explore the role of shocks as one type of temporal effects in the dynamics of the heliosheath. Although currently plasma in the heliosheath is dominated by solar minima conditions, with increasing solar cycle shocks associated with transients will play an important role. We used a 3D MHD multi-fluid model of the interaction between the solar wind and the local interstellar medium to study the propagation of a pair of forward-reverse shocks in the supersonic solar wind, interaction with the TS, and propagation to the heliosheath. We found that in the supersonic solar wind the interaction region between the shocks expands, the shocks weaken and decelerate. The fluctuation amplitudes of the plasma parameters vary with heliocentric distance. The interaction of the pair of shocks with the TS creates a variety of new waves and discontinuities in the heliosheath, which produce a highly variable solar wind flow. The collision of the forward shock with the heliopause causes a reflection of fast magnetosonic waves inside the heliosheath.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Simulating the long-term evolution of radiative shocks in shock tubes

We present the latest improvements in the Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics (CRASH) code, a parallel block-adaptive-mesh Eulerian code for simulating high-energy-density plasmas. The implementation can solve for radiation models with either a gray or a multigroup method in the flux-limited-diffusion approximation. The electrons and ions are allowed to be out of temperature equilibrium and flux-limited electron thermal heat conduction is included. We have recently implemented a CRASH laser package with 3-D ray tracing, resulting in improved energy deposition evaluation. New, more accurate opacity models are available which significantly improve radiation transport in materials like xenon. In addition, the HYPRE preconditioner has been added to improve the radiation implicit solver. With this updated version of the CRASH code we study radiative shock tube problems. In our set-up, a 1 ns, 3.8 kJ laser pulse irradiates a 20 micron beryllium disk, driving a shock into a xenon-filled plastic tube. The electrons emit radiation behind the shock. This radiation from the shocked xenon preheats the unshocked xenon. Photons traveling ahead of the shock will also interact with the plastic tube, heat it, and in turn this can drive another shock off the wall into the xenon. We are now able to simulate the long term evolution of radiative shocks.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Simulating radiative shocks in nozzle shock tubes

We use the recently developed Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics (CRASH) code to numerically simulate laser-driven radiative shock experiments. These shocks are launched by an ablated beryllium disk and are driven down xenon-filled plastic tubes. The simulations are initialized by the two-dimensional version of the Lagrangian Hyades code which is used to evaluate the laser energy deposition during the first 1.1ns. The later times are calculated with the CRASH code. This code solves for the multi-material hydrodynamics with separate electron and ion temperatures on an Eulerian block-adaptive-mesh and includes a multi-group flux-limited radiation diffusion and electron thermal heat conduction. The goal of the present paper is to demonstrate the capability to simulate radiative shocks of essentially three-dimensional experimental configurations, such as circular and elliptical nozzles. We show that the compound shock structure of the primary and wall shock is captured and verify that the shock properties are consistent with order-of-magnitude estimates. The produced synthetic radiographs can be used for comparison with future nozzle experiments at high-energy-density laser facilities.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Is the magnetic field in the heliosheath laminar or a turbulent bath of bubbles?

All the current global models of the heliosphere are based on the assumption that the magnetic field in the heliosheath, in the region close to the heliopause is laminar. We argue that in that region the heliospheric magnetic field is not laminar but instead consists of magnetic bubbles. Recently, we proposed that the annihilation of the "sectored" magnetic field within the heliosheath as it is compressed on its approach to the heliopause produces the anomalous cosmic rays and also energetic electrons. As a product of the annihilation of the sectored magnetic field, densely-packed magnetic islands/bubbles are produced. These magnetic islands/bubbles will be convected with the ambient flows as the sector region is carried to higher latitudes filling the heliosheath. We further argue that the magnetic islands/bubbles will develop upstream within the heliosheath. As a result, the magnetic field in the heliosheath sector region will be disordered well upstream of the heliopause. We present a 3D MHD simulation with very high numerical resolution that captures the north-south boundaries of the sector region. We show that due to the high pressure of the interstellar magnetic field a north-south asymmetry develops such that the disordered sectored region fills a large portion of the northern part of the heliosphere with a smaller extension in the southern hemisphere. We suggest that this scenario is supported by the following changes that occur around 2008 and from 2009.16 onward: a) the sudden decrease in the intensity of low energy electrons detected by Voyager 2; b) a sharp reduction in the intensity of fluctuations of the radial flow; and c) the dramatic differences in intensity trends between GCRs at V1 and 2. We argue that these observations are a consequence of V2 leaving the sector region of disordered field during these periods and crossing into a region of unipolar laminar field.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Crash: A Block-Adaptive-Mesh Code for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics - Implementation and Verification

We describe the CRASH (Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics) code, a block adaptive mesh code for multi-material radiation hydrodynamics. The implementation solves the radiation diffusion model with the gray or multigroup method and uses a flux limited diffusion approximation to recover the free-streaming limit. The electrons and ions are allowed to have different temperatures and we include a flux limited electron heat conduction. The radiation hydrodynamic equations are solved in the Eulerian frame by means of a conservative finite volume discretization in either one, two, or three-dimensional slab geometry or in two-dimensional cylindrical symmetry. An operator split method is used to solve these equations in three substeps: (1) solve the hydrodynamic equations with shock-capturing schemes, (2) a linear advection of the radiation in frequency-logarithm space, and (3) an implicit solve of the stiff radiation diffusion, heat conduction, and energy exchange. We present a suite of verification test problems to demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the algorithms. The CRASH code is an extension of the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code with this new radiation transfer and heat conduction library and equation-of-state and multigroup opacity solvers. Both CRASH and BATS-R-US are part of the publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2004

Magnetic Effects Change Our View of the Heliosheath

There is currently a controversy as to whether Voyager 1 has already crossed the Termination Shock, the first boundary of the Heliosphere. The region between the Termination Shock and the Heliopause, the Helisheath, is one of the most unknown regions theoretically. In the Heliosheath magnetic effects are crucial, as the solar magnetic field is compressed at the Termination Shock by the slowing flow. Recently, our simulations showed that the Heliosheath presents remarkable dynamics, with turbulent flows and the presence of a jet flow at the current sheet that is unstable due to magnetohydrodynamic instabilities \cite{opher,opher1}. In this paper we review these recent results, and present an additional simulation with constant neutral atom background. In this case the jet is still present but with reduced intensity. Further study, e.g., including neutrals and the tilt of the solar rotation from the magnetic axis, is required before we can definitively address how the Heliosheath behaves. Already we can say that this region presents remarkable dynamics, with turbulent flows, indicating that the Heliosheath might be very different from what we previously thought.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Magnetic Effects at the Edge of the Solar System: MHD Instabilities, the de Laval nozzle Effect and an Extended Jet

To model the interaction between the solar wind and the interstellar wind, magnetic fields must be included. Recently Opher et al. 2003 found that, by including the solar magnetic field in a 3D high resolution simulation using the University of Michigan BATS-R-US code, a jet-sheet structure forms beyond the solar wind Termination Shock. Here we present an even higher resolution three-dimensional case where the jet extends for $150AU$ beyond the Termination Shock. We discuss the formation of the jet due to a de Laval nozzle effect and it's su bsequent large period oscillation due to magnetohydrodynamic instabilities. To verify the source of the instability, we also perform a simplified two dimensional-geometry magnetohydrodynamic calculation of a plane fluid jet embedded in a neutral sheet with the profiles taken from our 3D simulation. We find remarkable agreement with the full three-dimensional evolution. We compare both simulations and the temporal evolution of the jet showing that the sinuous mode is the dominant mode that develops into a velocity-shear-instability with a growth rate of $5 \times 10^{-9} sec^{-1}=0.027 years^{-1}$. As a result, the outer edge of the heliosphere presents remarkable dynamics, such as turbulent flows caused by the motion of the jet. Further study, e.g., including neutrals and the tilt of the solar rotation from the magnetic axis, is required before we can definitively address how this outer boundary behaves. Already, however, we can say that the magnetic field effects are a major player in this region changing our previous notion of how the solar system ends.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Adaptive mesh refinement for conservative systems: multi-dimensional efficiency evaluation

Obtainable computational efficiency is evaluated when using an Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) strategy in time accurate simulations governed by sets of conservation laws. For a variety of 1D, 2D, and 3D hydro- and magnetohydrodynamic simulations, AMR is used in combination with several shock-capturing, conservative discretization schemes. Solution accuracy and execution times are compared with static grid simulations at the corresponding high resolution and time spent on AMR overhead is reported. Our examples reach corresponding efficiencies of 5 to 20 in multidimensional calculations and only 1.5 -- 8 % overhead is observed. For AMR calculations of multi-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic problems, several strategies for controlling the $\nabla \cdot \BB =0$ constraint are examined. Three source term approaches suitable for cell-centered $\BB$ representations are shown to be effective. For 2D and 3D calculations where a transition to a more globally turbulent state takes place, it is advocated to use an approximate Riemann solver based discretization at the highest allowed level(s), in combination with the robust Total Variation Diminishing Lax-Friedrichs method on the coarser levels. This level-dependent use of the spatial discretization acts as a computationally efficient, hybrid scheme.

astro-ph↗