arXiv subjects

Gabriel Wallin

Publications and source records attributed to Gabriel Wallin.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Interpreting Learning Under Competing Models: Joint and Stepwise Approaches for Dynamic Cognitive Diagnosis

Digital learning environments record learners' responses to individual items, making it possible to study the development of specific skills rather than overall scores. Drawing conclusions about learning from these data requires a model that links responses to latent skills and tracks how mastery changes over time. When the skills measured by each item are unknown, the analyst must decide whether to estimate this structure, the Q-matrix, jointly with the learning process, or to establish it first and study learning afterwards. We show that this decision can change substantive conclusions about how learners develop. Using dynamic cognitive diagnostic models, we analyse data from two reading games measuring vocabulary and comprehension from Grade 2 to Grade 3, with item-text embeddings providing prior information for the unknown Q-matrix. A joint analysis and a bias-corrected stepwise analysis agree that most learners move toward mastering both skills, but disagree about how many remain only partially proficient at Grade 3, changing how reading progress would be reported. A simulation study identifies when the two analyses diverge and shows that joint analysis is more reliable when the item-skill structure is uncertain and the item pool changes between grades. We provide R code for both analyses.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Latent Variable Model for Response Times with Individual-Specific Change-Points

Response times collected in computerised assessments provide information about the underlying response process and may exhibit within-person variation over the course of a test. We propose a latent variable model for log response times that incorporates individual-specific change-points. The model extends the log-normal response time model by allowing an item-specific shift in the mean structure after an unobserved change-point. The change-point is treated as a discrete latent variable, and its distribution is modeled as a function of latent speed. Estimation is carried out using marginal maximum likelihood. The framework yields posterior distributions for change-point locations, allowing uncertainty to be quantified at the individual level, and supports statistical inference for the change-point effect parameters. A simulation study examines parameter recovery and change-point estimation under varying boundary conditions, prevalence of changers, sample sizes, and test lengths. The results show accurate recovery of item and structural parameters. The proposed model provides a unified approach to modeling response times with within-person changes in behaviour.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Latent Impact and Differential Item Functioning Analysis for Asymmetric IRT Models

Differential item functioning (DIF) arises alongside latent population heterogeneity in many applications, and both must be accounted for when assessing measurement invariance. In many practical settings, however, the comparison groups are unobserved and anchor items are unknown. A further challenge is that item response theory models traditionally assume symmetric link functions, yet empirical response processes may exhibit substantial asymmetry. This paper proposes a general framework for jointly analysing impact and DIF under asymmetric item response models. Unobserved group differences are represented by latent classes within a mixture item response model, while item-specific shifts capture DIF effects. Assuming the number of DIF items is relatively small, an $\ell_1$-regularised estimator is used to simultaneously identify the latent classes and select DIF items without requiring observed group labels or pre-specified anchor items. A simulation study evaluates recovery of impact, item parameters, and DIF effects across a range of configurations. The method is illustrated using two empirical applications from educational testing. In one dataset, the selected model reveals both impact and item-level DIF, whereas in the other, the results indicate substantial impact but little evidence of item-level DIF.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Comparison of Joint and Stepwise Dynamic Cognitive Diagnostic Models

To extend cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) to longitudinal settings, stepwise approaches that integrate a CDM model with a latent transition model and covariates are widely used due to their flexibility. Previous research has shown that stepwise estimation can yield biased results, motivating classification-error correction as a means of improving inference over uncorrected stepwise procedures. In this study, we evaluate a unified Bayesian dynamic cognitive diagnostic model that jointly estimates measurement (item parameters, latent attribute profiles) and transition components (transition parameters) in longitudinal settings with covariates. We compare this joint approach with the bias-corrected stepwise latent transition CDM through a Monte Carlo study. Results demonstrate that joint modeling provides more accurate recovery of transition parameters, particularly under limited test length and sample size, underscoring its advantages for longitudinal diagnostic analysis and offering practical guidance for applied researchers.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Propensity Score Methods for Local Test Score Equating: Stratification and Inverse Probability Weighting

In test equating, ensuring score comparability across different test forms is crucial but particularly challenging when test groups are non-equivalent and no anchor test is available. Local test equating aims to satisfy Lord's equity requirement by conditioning equating transformations on individual-level information, typically using anchor test scores as proxies for latent ability. However, anchor tests are not always available in practice. This paper introduces two novel propensity score-based methods for local equating: stratification and inverse probability weighting (IPW). These methods use covariates to account for group differences, with propensity scores serving as proxies for latent ability differences between test groups. The stratification method partitions examinees into comparable groups based on similar propensity scores, while IPW assigns weights inversely proportional to the probability of group membership. We evaluate these methods through empirical analysis and simulation studies. Results indicate both methods can effectively adjust for group differences, with their relative performance depending on the strength of covariate-ability correlations. The study extends local equating methodology to cases where only covariate information is available, providing testing programs with new tools for ensuring fair score comparability.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

NLP-Informed Dynamic Cognitive Diagnosis Modelling

Digital learning platforms are increasingly used to support reading development while generating rich log files and item-level textual content. Using these data, this study proposes a dynamic cognitive diagnostic modelling (CDM) framework that incorporates text-derived semantic information to inform the estimation of the Q-matrix. We construct item-level semantic representations of question text and response options, and use these representations to define an informative prior on the Q-matrix. This approach treats text-derived signals as proxies for item complexity and cognitive demands, guiding the item-skill mapping in a data-driven manner. The proposed framework jointly estimates latent skill mastery profiles, item parameters, and transition dynamics over time within a Bayesian framework. We apply the model to data from Boost Reading, a digital reading supplement, focusing on students' vocabulary and comprehension skill development. We compare the proposed framework with a baseline model without any text information and show that the text-derived prior can improve Q-matrix recovery, particularly in settings where response data alone provide limited identification, as well as other model parameters for varying scenarios. This study provides a novel integration of natural language processing and dynamic CDMs, offering a data-driven approach to modelling skill acquisition and item-skill relationships in digital learning environments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Regularised Latent-Class Item Response Model for Detecting Measurement Non-Invariance in Ordinal Response Scales

Measurement non-invariance arises when the psychometric properties of a scale differ across subgroups, undermining the validity of group comparisons. At the item level, this manifests as differential item functioning (DIF), where item responses differ across groups after controlling for the latent trait. This paper develops a framework for detecting DIF in ordinal scales without requiring known group labels or anchor items. We formulate a proportional-odds latent-class item response model in which individuals are assigned probabilistically to latent classes. DIF is captured through class-specific intercept and slope shifts, allowing both uniform and non-uniform DIF. Identification is achieved through an $\ell_1$-penalised marginal likelihood under a sparsity assumption, with estimation implemented using a tailored EM algorithm. Because class-specific slopes leave both the location and scale of each latent class unidentified, sparsity anchors the latent metric while selecting DIF effects. Simulation studies demonstrate accurate recovery of item parameters and both types of DIF. An empirical application to a personality test reveals latent subgroups with distinct response patterns and identifies items displaying potential class-specific measurement non-invariance. The framework provides a flexible approach for assessing measurement invariance in ordinal scales when comparison groups are unobserved or poorly defined.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A statistical framework for dynamic cognitive diagnosis in digital learning environments

Reading is foundational for educational, employment, and economic outcomes, but a persistent proportion of students globally struggle to develop adequate reading skills. Some countries promote digital tools to support reading development, alongside regular classroom instruction. Such tools generate rich log data capturing students' behaviour and performance. This study proposes a dynamic cognitive diagnostic modeling (CDM) framework based on restricted latent class models to trace students' time-varying skills mastery using log files from digital tools. Unlike traditional CDMs that require expert-defined skill-item mappings (Q-matrix), our approach jointly estimates the Q-matrix and latent skill profiles, integrates log-derived covariates (e.g., reattempts, response times, counts of mastered items) and individual characteristics, and models transitions in mastery using a Bayesian estimation approach. Applied to real-world data, the model demonstrates practical value in educational settings by effectively uncovering individual skill profiles and the skill-item mappings. Simulation studies confirm robust recovery of Q-matrix structures and latent profiles with high accuracy under varied sample sizes, item counts and different sparsity of Q-matrices. The framework offers a data-driven, time-dependent restricted latent class modeling approach to understanding early reading development.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

A Latent Variable Model with Change-Points and Its Application to Time Pressure Effects in Educational Assessment

Educational assessments are valuable tools for measuring student knowledge and skills, but their validity can be compromised when test takers exhibit changes in response behavior due to factors such as time pressure. To address this issue, we introduce a novel latent factor model with change-points for item response data, designed to detect and account for individual-level shifts in response patterns during testing. This model extends traditional Item Response Theory (IRT) by incorporating person-specific change-points, which enables simultaneous estimation of item parameters, person latent traits, and the location of behavioral changes. We evaluate the proposed model through extensive simulation studies, which demonstrate its ability to accurately recover item parameters, change-point locations, and individual ability estimates under various conditions. Our findings show that accounting for change-points significantly reduces bias in ability estimates, particularly for respondents affected by time pressure. Application of the model to two real-world educational testing datasets reveals distinct patterns of change-point occurrence between high-stakes and lower-stakes tests, providing insights into how test-taking behavior evolves during the tests. This approach offers a more nuanced understanding of test-taking dynamics, with important implications for test design, scoring, and interpretation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

DIF Analysis with Unknown Groups and Anchor Items

Ensuring fairness in instruments like survey questionnaires or educational tests is crucial. One way to address this is by a Differential Item Functioning (DIF) analysis, which examines if different subgroups respond differently to a particular item, controlling for their overall latent construct level. DIF analysis is typically conducted to assess measurement invariance at the item level. Traditional DIF analysis methods require knowing the comparison groups (reference and focal groups) and anchor items (a subset of DIF-free items). Such prior knowledge may not always be available, and psychometric methods have been proposed for DIF analysis when one piece of information is unknown. More specifically, when the comparison groups are unknown while anchor items are known, latent DIF analysis methods have been proposed that estimate the unknown groups by latent classes. When anchor items are unknown while comparison groups are known, methods have also been proposed, typically under a sparsity assumption -- the number of DIF items is not too large. However, DIF analysis when both pieces of information are unknown has not received much attention. This paper proposes a general statistical framework under this setting. In the proposed framework, we model the unknown groups by latent classes and introduce item-specific DIF parameters to capture the DIF effects. Assuming the number of DIF items is relatively small, an $L_1$-regularised estimator is proposed to simultaneously identify the latent classes and the DIF items. A computationally efficient Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm is developed to solve the non-smooth optimisation problem for the regularised estimator. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by simulation studies and an application to item response data from a real-world educational test.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Rotation to Sparse Loadings using $L^p$ Losses and Related Inference Problems

Researchers have widely used exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to learn the latent structure underlying multivariate data. Rotation and regularised estimation are two classes of methods in EFA that they often use to find interpretable loading matrices. In this paper we propose a new family of oblique rotations based on component-wise $L^p$ loss functions $(0 < p\leq 1)$ that is closely related to an $L^p$ regularised estimator. We develop model selection and post-selection inference procedures based on the proposed rotation method. When the true loading matrix is sparse, the proposed method tends to outperform traditional rotation and regularised estimation methods in terms of statistical accuracy and computational cost. Since the proposed loss functions are nonsmooth, we develop an iteratively reweighted gradient projection algorithm for solving the optimisation problem. We also develop theoretical results that establish the statistical consistency of the estimation, model selection, and post-selection inference. We evaluate the proposed method and compare it with regularised estimation and traditional rotation methods via simulation studies. We further illustrate it using an application to the Big Five personality assessment.

stat.ME↗