arXiv subjects

Gabriele Di Bona

Publications and source records attributed to Gabriele Di Bona.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The gold-rush effect: how innovation speeds up

Innovation records often exhibit "hockey-stick" patterns of abrupt, near-singular growth at the collective level. However, this macroscopic explosiveness stands in stark contrast to individual discovery, which remains bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints and follows slow, sublinear accumulation laws. Here, we resolve this micro-macro discrepancy by introducing a minimal multi-scale model that identifies the growth of the explorer population as the primary driver of aggregate acceleration. Building on the Theory of the Adjacent Possible and the Urn Model with Triggering (UMT), we demonstrate that as discoveries expand the space of possibilities, they attract new explorers through a self-reinforcing branching process. This expansion induces a nonlinear mapping between intrinsic time (individual discovery events) and natural time (calendar years), effectively reparameterizing steady individual trajectories into accelerating system-level dynamics. We validate the framework using large-scale patent (EPO) and scientific publication (OpenAlex) datasets, showing that the model accurately reproduces stable per-capita productivity alongside exponential aggregate growth. By providing a quantitative link between individual behavior and collective takeoffs, this work offers a unified foundation for understanding the statistical structure and temporal evolution of innovation ecosystems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Language bubbles in online social networks

Social media platforms have become essential spaces for public discourse. While political polarisation and limited communication across different groups are widely acknowledged, the connection between social network fragmentation and the language features and quality used by various communities has received insufficient attention. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the social structure and linguistic richness of the Italian debate on Twitter/X. We analyse tweets and retweets from Italian politicians and news outlets between 2018 and 2022, characterising the retweet network and evaluating the language used within different communities through various lexical metrics. Our analysis uncovers two systematic patterns: communities closer in the network tend to use more similar vocabulary, while isolated communities consistently demonstrate lower lexical diversity and richness. Together, these patterns illustrate what we call ``language bubbles''. These findings indicate that socially isolated communities interact less with others and develop distinct and poorer linguistic profiles, highlighting a structural link between social fragmentation and linguistic divergence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

The Gerontocratization of Science: How hypergrowth reshapes knowledge circulation

Scientific literature has been growing exponentially for decades, with publications from the last twenty years now comprising 60% of all academic output. While the impact of information overload on news and social-media consumption is well-documented, its consequences on scientific progress remain understudied. Here, we investigate how this rapid expansion affects the circulation and exploitation of scientific ideas. Unlike other cultural domains, science is experiencing a decline in the proportion of highly influential papers and a slower turnover in its canons. This results in the disproportionate persistence of established works, a phenomenon we term the ``gerontocratization of science''. To test whether hypergrowth drives this trend, we develop a generative citation model that incorporates random discovery, cumulative advantage, and exponential growth of the scientific literature. Our findings reveal that as scientific output expands exponentially, gerontocratization emerges and intensifies, reducing the influence of new research. Recognizing and understanding this mechanism is crucial for developing targeted strategies to sustain intellectual dynamism and ensure a balanced and healthy renewal of scientific knowledge.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2024

The dynamics of higher-order novelties

Studying how we explore the world in search of novelties is key to understand the mechanisms that can lead to new discoveries. Previous studies analyzed novelties in various exploration processes, defining them as the first appearance of an element. However, novelties can also be generated by combining what is already known. We hence define higher-order novelties as the first time two or more elements appear together, and we introduce higher-order Heaps' exponents as a way to characterize their pace of discovery. Through extensive analysis of real-world data, we find that processes with the same pace of discovery, as measured by the standard Heaps' exponent, can instead differ at higher orders. We then propose to model an exploration process as a random walk on a network in which the possible connections between elements evolve in time. The model reproduces the empirical properties of higher-order novelties, revealing how the network we explore changes over time along with the exploration process.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

The overlooked need for Ethics in Complexity Science: Why it matters

Complexity science, despite its broad scope and potential impact, has not kept pace with fields like artificial intelligence, biotechnology and social sciences in addressing ethical concerns. The field lacks a comprehensive ethical framework, leaving us, as a community, vulnerable to ethical challenges and dilemmas. Other areas have gone through similar experiences and created, with discussions and working groups, their guides, policies and recommendations. Therefore, here we highlight the critical absence of formal guidelines, dedicated ethical committees, and widespread discussions on ethics within the complexity science community. Drawing on insights from the disciplines mentioned earlier, we propose a roadmap to enhance ethical awareness and action. Our recommendations include (i) initiating supportive mechanisms to develop ethical guidelines specific to complex systems research, (ii) creating open-access resources, and (iii) fostering inclusive dialogues to ensure that complexity science can responsibly tackle societal challenges and achieve a more inclusive environment. By initiating this dialogue, we aim to encourage a necessary shift in how ethics is integrated into complexity research, positioning the field to address contemporary challenges more effectively.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Sampled Datasets Risk Substantial Bias in the Identification of Political Polarization on Social Media

Following recent policy changes by X (Twitter) and other social media platforms, user interaction data has become increasingly difficult to access. These restrictions are impeding robust research pertaining to social and political phenomena online, which is critical due to the profound impact social media platforms may have on our societies. Here, we investigate the reliability of polarization measures obtained from different samples of social media data by studying the structural polarization of the Polish political debate on Twitter over a 24-hour period. First, we show that the political discussion on Twitter is only a small subset of the wider Twitter discussion. Second, we find that large samples can be representative of the whole political discussion on a platform, but small samples consistently fail to accurately reflect the true structure of polarization online. Finally, we demonstrate that keyword-based samples can be representative if keywords are selected with great care, but that poorly selected keywords can result in substantial political bias in the sampled data. Our findings demonstrate that it is not possible to measure polarization in a reliable way with small, sampled datasets, highlighting why the current lack of research data is so problematic, and providing insight into the practical implementation of the European Union's Digital Service Act which aims to improve researchers' access to social media data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

The Concept of Decentralization Through Time and Disciplines: A Quantitative Exploration

Decentralization is a pervasive concept found across disciplines, including Economics, Political Science, and Computer Science, where it is used in distinct yet interrelated ways. Here, we develop and publicly release a general pipeline to investigate the scholarly history of the term, analysing 425,144 academic publications that refer to (de)centralization. We find that the fraction of papers on the topic has been exponentially increasing since the 1950s. In 2021, 1 author in 154 mentioned (de)centralization in the title or abstract of an article. Using both semantic information and citation patterns, we cluster papers in fields and characterize the knowledge flows between them. Our analysis reveals that the topic has independently emerged in the different fields, with small cross-disciplinary contamination. Moreover, we show how Blockchain has become the most influential field about 10 years ago, while Governance dominated before the 1990s. In summary, our findings provide a quantitative assessment of the evolution of a key yet elusive concept, which has undergone cycles of rise and fall within different fields. Our pipeline offers a powerful tool to analyze the evolution of any scholarly term in the academic literature, providing insights into the interplay between collective and independent discoveries in science.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Maximal dispersion of adaptive random walks

Maximum entropy random walks (MERWs) are maximally dispersing and play a key role in optimizing information spreading in various contexts. However, building MERWs comes at the cost of knowing beforehand the global structure of the network, a requirement that makes them totally inadequate in real case scenarios. Here, we propose an adaptive random walk (ARW), which instead maximizes dispersion by updating its transition rule on the local information collected while exploring the network. We show how to derive ARW via a large-deviation representation of MERW and study its dynamics on synthetic and real world networks.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Social interactions affect discovery processes

Our network of acquaintances determines how we get exposed to ideas, products, or cultural artworks (books, music, movies, etc.). Though this principle is part of our common sense, little is known about the specific pathways through which our peers influence our discovery processes and our experience of the new. Here, we fill this gap by investigating a data set containing the whole listening histories of a large, socially connected sample of users from the online music platform \emph{Last.fm}. We demonstrate that users exhibit highly heterogeneous discovery rates of new songs and artists and that their social neighborhood significantly influences their behavior. More explorative users tend to interact with peers more prone to explore new content. We capture this phenomenology in a modeling scheme where users are represented by random walkers exploring a graph of songs or artists and interacting with each other through their social links. Even starting from a uniform population of agents (no natural differences among the individuals), our model predicts the emergence of strong heterogeneous exploration patterns, with users clustered according to their musical tastes and propensity to explore. We contend our approach can pave the way to a quantitative approach to collective discovery processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Interacting discovery processes on complex networks

Innovation is the driving force of human progress. Recent urn models reproduce well the dynamics through which the discovery of a novelty may trigger further ones, in an expanding space of opportunities, but neglect the effects of social interactions. Here we focus on the mechanisms of collective exploration and we propose a model in which many urns, representing different explorers, are coupled through the links of a social network and exploit opportunities coming from their contacts. We study different network structures showing, both analytically and numerically, that the pace of discovery of an explorer depends on its centrality in the social network. Our model sheds light on the role that social structures play in discovery processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

A theoretical model for realistic local climates

We write a nonlinear model that predicts the climate (temperature and humidity) on the surface of a small region on Earth, perform numerical investigations using the model, and compare the results to real climate on a variety of regions on Earth. It the parameters are chosen keeping into consideration the climatic Köppen zone to which the region belongs, the numerical model accurately reproduces the real climate. The model takes into account the doubly-periodic forcing of the solar radiation (annual and daily), the laws of irradiance, the fact that the Earth has land and oceans with different thermic inertia, and the humidity of the air due to evaporation. This enables us to reproduce remarkable features of Earth's climate such as lag of seasons, lag of noons, and asymmetric evolution of daily temperatures. The model can easily be adapted to planets with non-terrestrial astronomic parameters. We conclude this article with an investigation of an Earth with eccentricity higher than real.

physics.ao-ph↗