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Galin Jones

Publications and source records attributed to Galin Jones.

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Solidarity of Spectral Gaps for Component-Wise Markov Chains

Deterministic-scan and random-scan component-wise Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Gibbs samplers and conditional Metropolis-Hastings, are popular approaches for sampling from multivariate distributions. A long-standing open question is to determine the conditions under which these algorithms have similar convergence rates. A block-wise contraction condition for the component-wise updates is used to establish a solidarity principle for the $L^2$ spectral gaps of the associated Markov chains. Specifically, under this condition, the spectral gaps of the random-scan and deterministic-scan versions of the Gibbs and component-wise chains are either simultaneously positive or simultaneously zero. Moreover, the spectral gaps differ by at most polynomial factors in the number of blocks. As an application of the general results, a deterministic-scan conditional Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) for multivariate Gaussian targets is studied. The block-wise contraction condition is combined with known spectral gap bounds for the random-scan Gibbs sampler to obtain a spectral gap bound that is polynomial in dimension. The result is used to clarify how the convergence rate of the conditional MALA depends on the precision matrix of the Gaussian target and the step sizes of the block-wise MALA updates.

math.ST

AgentDS Technical Report: Benchmarking the Future of Human-AI Collaboration in Domain-Specific Data Science

Data science plays a critical role in transforming complex data into actionable insights across numerous domains. Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence (AI) agents have significantly automated data science workflow. However, it remains unclear to what extent AI agents can match the performance of human experts on domain-specific data science tasks, and in which aspects human expertise continues to provide advantages. We introduce AgentDS, a benchmark and competition designed to evaluate both AI agents and human-AI collaboration performance in domain-specific data science. AgentDS consists of 17 challenges across six industries: commerce, food production, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, and retail banking. We conducted an open competition involving 29 teams and 80 participants, enabling systematic comparison between human-AI collaborative approaches and AI-only baselines. Our results show that current AI agents struggle with domain-specific reasoning. AI-only baselines perform below the top quartile of competition participants, while the strongest solutions arise from human-AI collaboration. These findings challenge the narrative of complete automation by AI and underscore the enduring importance of human expertise in data science, while illuminating directions for the next generation of AI. Visit the AgentDS website here: https://agentds.org/ and open source datasets here: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lainmn/AgentDS .

cs.LG

On Validating Angular Power Spectral Models for the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background Without Distributional Assumptions

It is demonstrated that estimators of the angular power spectrum commonly used for the stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) lack a closed-form analytical expression for the likelihood function and, typically, cannot be accurately approximated by a Gaussian likelihood. Nevertheless, a robust statistical analysis can be performed to enable the estimation and testing of angular power spectral models for the SGWB without specifying distributional assumptions. Here, the technical aspects of the method are discussed in detail. Moreover, a new, consistent estimator for the covariance of the angular power spectrum is derived. The proposed approach is applied to data from the third observing run (O3) of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo.

astro-ph.IM

Needle in a Bayes Stack: a Hierarchical Bayesian Method for Constraining the Neutron Star Equation of State with an Ensemble of Binary Neutron Star Post-merger Remnants

Binary neutron star (BNS) post-merger gravitational-wave emission can occur in the aftermath of a BNS merger -- provided the system avoids prompt collapse to a black hole -- as a quasistable hypermassive remnant experiences quadrupolar oscillations and non-axisymmetric deformations. The post-merger gravitational-wave spectrum possesses a characteristic peak frequency that has been shown to be dependent on the binary chirp mass and the neutron star equation of state (EoS), rendering post-merger gravitational waves a powerful tool for constraining neutron star composition. Unfortunately, the BNS post-merger signal is emitted at high ($\gtrsim 1.5$ kHz) frequencies, where ground-based gravitational wave detectors suffer from reduced sensitivity. It is therefore unlikely that post-merger signals will be detected with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) until the advent of next-generation detectors. However, by employing empirical relations derived from numerical relativity simulations, we can combine information across an ensemble of BNS mergers, allowing us to obtain EoS constraints with many low-SNR signals. We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for deriving constraints on $R_{1.6}$, the radius of a 1.6$\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ neutron star, through an ensemble analysis of binary neutron star mergers. We apply this method to simulations of the next two LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, as well as an extended 4-year run at A+ sensitivity, demonstrating the potential of our approach to yield EoS information from the post-merger signal with current-generation detectors. The A+ 4-year scenario is predicted to improve the constraint on $R_{1.6}$ from the currently available multimessenger-based 95\% credible interval (C.I.) uncertainty of $R_{1.6}=12.07^{+0.98}_{-0.77}$ km to $R_{1.6}=11.91^{+0.80}_{-0.56}$ km, a 22% reduction of the 95% C.I. width.

astro-ph.HE

Fixed-width output analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method that stops the simulation when the width of a confidence interval based on an ergodic average is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating a Monte Carlo standard error is a critical step in assessing the simulation output. We consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We give sufficient conditions for the strong consistency of both methods and investigate their finite sample properties in a variety of examples.

math.ST