arXiv subjects

Ganggang Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Ganggang Xu.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Two-way Homogeneity Pursuit for Quantile Network Vector Autoregression

We propose a two-way grouped network quantile (TGNQ) autoregression model for time series data observed on networks with substantial heterogeneity and complex directional interactions. Motivated by prior studies on network effects in directed networks, our model assigns each node two latent group memberships to flexibly capture asymmetric and heterogeneous interactions among users. These memberships, along with model parameters, can be consistently estimated using the proposed estimation procedure. As a result, the model performs node clustering and parameter estimation simultaneously, striking a balance between model flexibility and interpretability. We establish theoretical guarantees for the proposed method, showing that both group memberships and parameter estimators are consistent even when the number of groups is over-specified. When the group numbers are correctly specified, the parameter estimators are asymptotically normal, enabling valid statistical inference. In addition, we develop a quantile information criterion for the consistent selection of the number of groups. Simulation studies demonstrate strong finite-sample performance, and an application to Sina Weibo data illustrates the model's ability to uncover behavioral dynamics and user interaction patterns.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Matrix-valued Network Autoregression Model with Latent Group Structure

Matrix-valued time series data are frequently observed in a broad range of areas and have attracted great attention recently. In this work, we model network effects for high dimensional matrix-valued time series data in a matrix autoregression framework. To characterize the potential heterogeneity of the subjects and handle the high dimensionality simultaneously, we assume that each subject has a latent group label, which enables us to cluster the subject into the corresponding row and column groups. We propose a group matrix network autoregression (GMNAR) model, which assumes that the subjects in the same group share the same set of model parameters. To estimate the model, we develop an iterative algorithm. Theoretically, we show that the group-wise parameters and group memberships can be consistently estimated when the group numbers are correctly or possibly over-specified. An information criterion for group number estimation is also provided to consistently select the group numbers. Lastly, we implement the method on a Yelp dataset to illustrate the usefulness of the method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Multi-relational Network Autoregression Model with Latent Group Structures

Multi-relational networks among entities are frequently observed in the era of big data. Quantifying the effects of multiple networks have attracted significant research interest recently. In this work, we model multiple network effects through an autoregressive framework for tensor-valued time series. To characterize the potential heterogeneity of the networks and handle the high dimensionality of the time series data simultaneously, we assume a separate group structure for entities in each network and estimate all group memberships in a data-driven fashion. Specifically, we propose a group tensor network autoregression (GTNAR) model, which assumes that within each network, entities in the same group share the same set of model parameters, and the parameters differ across networks. An iterative algorithm is developed to estimate the model parameters and the latent group memberships simultaneously. Theoretically, we show that the group-wise parameters and group memberships can be consistently estimated when the group numbers are correctly- or possibly over-specified. An information criterion for group number estimation of each network is also provided to consistently select the group numbers. Lastly, we implement the method on a Yelp dataset to illustrate the usefulness of the method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

On Ignorability of Preferential Sampling in Geostatistics

Preferential sampling has attracted considerable attention in geostatistics since the pioneering work of Diggle et al. (2010). A variety of likelihood-based approaches have been developed to correct estimation bias by explicitly modelling the sampling mechanism. While effective in many applications, these methods are often computationally expensive and can be susceptible to model misspecification. In this paper, we present a surprising finding: some existing non-likelihood-based methods that ignore preferential sampling can still produce unbiased and consistent estimators under the widely used framework of Diggle et al. (2010) and its extensions. We investigate the conditions under which preferential sampling can be ignored and develop relevant estimators for both regression and covariance parameters without specifying the sampling mechanism parametrically. Simulation studies demonstrate clear advantages of our approach, including reduced estimation error, improved confidence interval coverage, and substantially lower computational cost. To show the practical utility, we further apply it to a tropical forest data set.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Generalized Reduced-Rank Regression with Homogeneity Pursuit

Homogeneity, low rank, and sparsity are three widely adopted assumptions in multi-response regression models to address the curse of dimensionality and improve estimation accuracy. However, there is limited literature that examines these assumptions within a unified framework. In this paper, we investigate the homogeneity, low rank, and sparsity assumptions under the generalized linear model with high-dimensional responses and covariates, encompassing a wide range of practical applications. Our work establishes a comprehensive benchmark for comparing the effects of these three assumptions and introduces a regularized maximum likelihood estimation method to fit the corresponding models. Under mild conditions,we prove the statistical consistency of our estimator. Theoretical results provide insights into the role of homogeneity and offer a quantitative analysis of scenarios where homogeneity improves estimation accuracy. The proposed method's effectiveness is demonstrated through numerical simulations and an empirical analysis of tree species data from Barro Colorado Island.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Composite likelihood inference for space-time point processes

The dynamics of a rain forest is extremely complex involving births, deaths and growth of trees with complex interactions between trees, animals, climate, and environment. We consider the patterns of recruits (new trees) and dead trees between rain forest censuses. For a current census we specify regression models for the conditional intensity of recruits and the conditional probabilities of death given the current trees and spatial covariates. We estimate regression parameters using conditional composite likelihood functions that only involve the conditional first order properties of the data. When constructing assumption lean estimators of covariance matrices of parameter estimates we only need mild assumptions of decaying conditional correlations in space while assumptions regarding correlations over time are avoided by exploiting conditional centering of composite likelihood score functions. Time series of point patterns from rain forest censuses are quite short while each point pattern covers a fairly big spatial region. To obtain asymptotic results we therefore use a central limit theorem for the fixed timespan - increasing spatial domain asymptotic setting. This also allows us to handle the challenge of using stochastic covariates constructed from past point patterns. Conveniently, it suffices to impose weak dependence assumptions on the innovations of the space-time process. We investigate the proposed methodology by simulation studies and applications to rain forest data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

A central limit theorem for a sequence of conditionally centered random fields

A central limit theorem is established for a sum of random variables belonging to a sequence of random fields. The fields are assumed to have zero mean conditional on the past history and to satisfy certain conditional $α$-mixing conditions in space or time. Exploiting conditional centering and the space-time structure, the limiting normal distribution is obtained for increasing spatial domain, increasing length of the sequence, or both of these. The theorem is very well suited for establishing asymptotic normality in the context of unbiased estimating function inference for a wide range of space-time processes. This is pertinent given the abundance of space-time data. Two examples demonstrate the applicability of the theorem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Group Network Hawkes Process

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed and fixed. In particular, we introduce a latent group structure among individuals to account for the heterogeneous user-specific characteristics. A maximum likelihood approach is proposed to simultaneously cluster individuals in the network and estimate model parameters. A fast EM algorithm is subsequently developed by utilizing the branching representation of the proposed GNHP model. Theoretical properties of the resulting estimators of group memberships and model parameters are investigated under both settings when the number of latent groups $G$ is over-specified or correctly specified. A data-driven criterion that can consistently identify the true $G$ under mild conditions is derived. Extensive simulation studies and an application to a data set collected from Sina Weibo are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Nonparametric Inference under B-bits Quantization

Statistical inference based on lossy or incomplete samples is often needed in research areas such as signal/image processing, medical image storage, remote sensing, signal transmission. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric testing procedure based on samples quantized to $B$ bits through a computationally efficient algorithm. Under mild technical conditions, we establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic and investigate how the testing power changes as $B$ increases. In particular, we show that if $B$ exceeds a certain threshold, the proposed nonparametric testing procedure achieves the classical minimax rate of testing (Shang and Cheng, 2015) for spline models. We further extend our theoretical investigations to a nonparametric linearity test and an adaptive nonparametric test, expanding the applicability of the proposed methods. Extensive simulation studies {together with a real-data analysis} are used to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed tests.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Simultaneous Estimation and Group Identification for Network Vector Autoregressive Model with Heterogeneous Nodes

Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model heterogeneous dynamic patterns observed from network nodes, for which group-wise network effects and timeinvariant fixed-effects can be naturally incorporated. In our framework, the model parameters and network node memberships can be simultaneously estimated by minimizing a least-squares type objective function. In particular, our theoretical investigation allows the number of latent groups G to be over-specified when achieving the estimation consistency of the model parameters and group memberships, which significantly improves the robustness of the proposed approach. When G is correctly specified, valid statistical inference can be made for model parameters based on the asymptotic normality of the estimators. A data-driven criterion is developed to consistently identify the true group number for practical use. Extensive simulation studies and two real data examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Distributed Adaptive Nearest Neighbor Classifier: Algorithm and Theory

When data is of an extraordinarily large size or physically stored in different locations, the distributed nearest neighbor (NN) classifier is an attractive tool for classification. We propose a novel distributed adaptive NN classifier for which the number of nearest neighbors is a tuning parameter stochastically chosen by a data-driven criterion. An early stopping rule is proposed when searching for the optimal tuning parameter, which not only speeds up the computation but also improves the finite sample performance of the proposed Algorithm. Convergence rate of excess risk of the distributed adaptive NN classifier is investigated under various sub-sample size compositions. In particular, we show that when the sub-sample sizes are sufficiently large, the proposed classifier achieves the nearly optimal convergence rate. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through simulation studies as well as an empirical application to a real-world dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Bias-correction and Test for Mark-point Dependence with Replicated Marked Point Processes

Mark-point dependence plays a critical role in research problems that can be fitted into the general framework of marked point processes. In this work, we focus on adjusting for mark-point dependence when estimating the mean and covariance functions of the mark process, given independent replicates of the marked point process. We assume that the mark process is a Gaussian process and the point process is a log-Gaussian Cox process, where the mark-point dependence is generated through the dependence between two latent Gaussian processes. Under this framework, naive local linear estimators ignoring the mark-point dependence can be severely biased. We show that this bias can be corrected using a local linear estimator of the cross-covariance function and establish uniform convergence rates of the bias-corrected estimators. Furthermore, we propose a test statistic based on local linear estimators for mark-point independence, which is shown to converge to an asymptotic normal distribution in a parametric $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate. Model diagnostics tools are developed for key model assumptions and a robust functional permutation test is proposed for a more general class of mark-point processes. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated using extensive simulations and applications to two real data examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Second order semi-parametric inference for multivariate log Gaussian Cox processes

This paper introduces a new approach to inferring the second order properties of a multivariate log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) with a complex intensity function. We assume a semi-parametric model for the multivariate intensity function containing an unspecified complex factor common to all types of points. Given this model we exploit the availability of several types of points to construct a second-order conditional composite likelihood to infer the pair correlation and cross pair correlation functions of the LGCP. Crucially this likelihood does not depend on the unspecified part of the intensity function. We also introduce a cross validation method for model selection and an algorithm for regularized inference that can be used to obtain sparse models for cross pair correlation functions. The methodology is applied to simulated data as well as data examples from microscopy and criminology. This shows how the new approach outperforms existing alternatives where the intensity functions are estimated non-parametrically.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Learning Human Activity Patterns using Clustered Point Processes with Active and Inactive States

Modeling event patterns is a central task in a wide range of disciplines. In applications such as studying human activity patterns, events often arrive clustered with sporadic and long periods of inactivity. Such heterogeneity in event patterns poses challenges for existing point process models. In this article, we propose a new class of clustered point processes that alternate between active and inactive states. The proposed model is flexible, highly interpretable, and can provide useful insights into event patterns. A composite likelihood approach and a composite EM estimation procedure are developed for efficient and numerically stable parameter estimation. We study both the computational and statistical properties of the estimator including convergence, consistency, and asymptotic normality. The proposed method is applied to Donald Trump's Twitter data to investigate if and how his behaviors evolved before, during, and after the presidential campaign. Additionally, we analyze large-scale social media data from Sina Weibo and identify interesting groups of users with distinct behaviors.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Row-clustering of a Point Process-valued Matrix

Structured point process data harvested from various platforms poses new challenges to the machine learning community. By imposing a matrix structure to repeatedly observed marked point processes, we propose a novel mixture model of multi-level marked point processes for identifying potential heterogeneity in the observed data. Specifically, we study a matrix whose entries are marked log-Gaussian Cox processes and cluster rows of such a matrix. An efficient semi-parametric Expectation-Solution (ES) algorithm combined with functional principal component analysis (FPCA) of point processes is proposed for model estimation. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through simulation studies and a real data analysis.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Distributed Generalized Cross-Validation for Divide-and-Conquer Kernel Ridge Regression and its Asymptotic Optimality

Tuning parameter selection is of critical importance for kernel ridge regression. To this date, data driven tuning method for divide-and-conquer kernel ridge regression (d-KRR) has been lacking in the literature, which limits the applicability of d-KRR for large data sets. In this paper, by modifying the Generalized Cross-validation (GCV, Wahba, 1990) score, we propose a distributed Generalized Cross-Validation (dGCV) as a data-driven tool for selecting the tuning parameters in d-KRR. Not only the proposed dGCV is computationally scalable for massive data sets, it is also shown, under mild conditions, to be asymptotically optimal in the sense that minimizing the dGCV score is equivalent to minimizing the true global conditional empirical loss of the averaged function estimator, extending the existing optimality results of GCV to the divide-and-conquer framework.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Efficient Maximum Approximated Likelihood Inference for Tukey's g-and-h Distribution

Tukey's $g$-and-$h$ distribution has been a powerful tool for data exploration and modeling since its introduction. However, two long standing challenges associated with this distribution family have remained unsolved until this day: how to find an optimal estimation procedure and how to make valid statistical inference on unknown parameters. To overcome these two challenges, a computationally efficient estimation procedure based on maximizing an approximated likelihood function of the Tukey's $g$-and-$h$ distribution is proposed and is shown to have the same estimation efficiency as the maximum likelihood estimator under mild conditions. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator is derived and a series of approximated likelihood ratio test statistics are developed to conduct hypothesis tests involving two shape parameters of Tukey's $g$-and-$h$ distribution. Simulation examples and an analysis of air pollution data are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimation and testing procedures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Asymptotic optimality and efficient computation of the leave-subject-out cross-validation

Although the leave-subject-out cross-validation (CV) has been widely used in practice for tuning parameter selection for various nonparametric and semiparametric models of longitudinal data, its theoretical property is unknown and solving the associated optimization problem is computationally expensive, especially when there are multiple tuning parameters. In this paper, by focusing on the penalized spline method, we show that the leave-subject-out CV is optimal in the sense that it is asymptotically equivalent to the empirical squared error loss function minimization. An efficient Newton-type algorithm is developed to compute the penalty parameters that optimize the CV criterion. Simulated and real data are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the leave-subject-out CV in selecting both the penalty parameters and the working correlation matrix.

math.ST↗