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Gareth Roberts

Publications and source records attributed to Gareth Roberts.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2025

Central Limit Theorem for ergodic averages of Markov chains \& the comparison of sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed distributions

Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient conditions for such CLTs. To counterbalance this, the present paper provides verifiable necessary conditions for CLTs of ergodic averages of Markov chains on general state spaces. Our theory is based on drift conditions, which also yield lower bounds on the rates of convergence to stationarity in various metrics. The validity of the ergodic CLT is of particular importance for sampling algorithms, where it underpins the error analysis of estimators in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Although heavy-tailed sampling is of central importance in applications, the characterisation of the CLT and the convergence rates are theoretically poorly understood for almost all practically-used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this setting our results provide sharp conditions on the validity of the ergodic CLT and establish convergence rates for large families of MCMC sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed targets. Our study includes a rather complete analyses for random walk Metropolis samplers (with finite- and infinite-variance proposals), Metropolis-adjusted and unadjusted Langevin algorithms and the stereographic projection sampler (as well as the independence sampler). By providing these sharp results via our practical drift conditions, our theory offers significant insights into the problems of algorithm selection and comparison for sampling heavy-tailed distributions (see short YouTube presentations~\cite{YouTube_talk} describing our \href{https://youtu.be/m2y7U4cEqy4}{\underline{theory}} and \href{https://youtu.be/w8I_oOweuko}{\underline{applications}}).

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arXiv2025

Non-centering for discrete-valued state transition models: an application to ESBL-producing E. coli transmission in Malawi

Infectious disease transmission is often modelled by discrete-valued stochastic state-transition processes. Due to a lack of complete data, Bayesian inference for these models often relies on data-augmentation techniques. These techniques are often inefficient or time consuming to implement. We introduce a novel data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo method for discrete-time individual-based epidemic models, which we call the Rippler algorithm. This method uses the transmission model in the proposal step of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, rather than in the accept-reject step. We test the Rippler algorithm on simulated data and apply it to data on extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing E. coli collected in Blantyre, Malawi. We compare the Rippler algorithm to two other commonly used Bayesian inference methods for partially observed epidemic data, and find that it has a good balance between mixing speed and computational complexity.

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arXiv2025

Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diffusions

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and volatility. The jumps are driven by a latent, continuous time Markov switching process. We address the problem through an MCMC and an MCEM algorithm that target the exact posterior of diffusion parameters and the latent regime process. The algorithms are exact in the sense that they target the correct posterior distribution of the continuous model, so that the errors are due to Monte Carlo only. We illustrate the method on numerical examples, including an empirical analysis of the method's scalability in the length of the time series, and find that it is comparable in computational cost with discrete approximations while avoiding their shortcomings.

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arXiv2023

Methods and applications of PDMP samplers with boundary conditions

We extend Monte Carlo samplers based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP samplers) by formally defining different boundary conditions such as sticky floors, soft and hard walls and teleportation portals. This allows PDMP samplers to target measures with piecewise-smooth densities relative to mixtures of Dirac and continuous components and measures supported on disconnected regions or regions which are difficult to reach with continuous paths. This is achieved by specifying the transition kernel which governs the behaviour of standard PDMPs when reaching a boundary. We determine a sufficient condition for the kernel at the boundary in terms of the skew-detailed balance condition and give concrete examples. The probabilities to cross a boundary can be tuned by introducing a piecewise constant speed-up function which modifies the velocity of the process upon crossing the boundary without extra computational cost. We apply this new class of processes to two illustrative applications in epidemiology and statistical mechanics.

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arXiv2021

Bayesian Fusion: Scalable unification of distributed statistical analyses

There has recently been considerable interest in addressing the problem of unifying distributed statistical analyses into a single coherent inference. This problem naturally arises in a number of situations, including in big-data settings, when working under privacy constraints, and in Bayesian model choice. The majority of existing approaches have relied upon convenient approximations of the distributed analyses. Although typically being computationally efficient, and readily scaling with respect to the number of analyses being unified, approximate approaches can have significant shortcomings -- the quality of the inference can degrade rapidly with the number of analyses being unified, and can be substantially biased even when unifying a small number of analyses that do not concur. In contrast, the recent Fusion approach of Dai et al. (2019) is a rejection sampling scheme which is readily parallelisable and is exact (avoiding any form of approximation other than Monte Carlo error), albeit limited in applicability to unifying a small number of low-dimensional analyses. In this paper we introduce a practical Bayesian Fusion approach. We extend the theory underpinning the Fusion methodology and, by embedding it within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, we are able to recover the correct target distribution. By means of extensive guidance on the implementation of the approach, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that Bayesian Fusion is robust to increasing numbers of analyses, and coherently unifying analyses which do not concur. This is achieved while being computationally competitive with approximate schemes.

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arXiv2020

The Boomerang Sampler

This paper introduces the Boomerang Sampler as a novel class of continuous-time non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The methodology begins by representing the target density as a density, $e^{-U}$, with respect to a prescribed (usually) Gaussian measure and constructs a continuous trajectory consisting of a piecewise elliptical path. The method moves from one elliptical orbit to another according to a rate function which can be written in terms of $U$. We demonstrate that the method is easy to implement and demonstrate empirically that it can out-perform existing benchmark piecewise deterministic Markov processes such as the bouncy particle sampler and the Zig-Zag. In the Bayesian statistics context, these competitor algorithms are of substantial interest in the large data context due to the fact that they can adopt data subsampling techniques which are exact (ie induce no error in the stationary distribution). We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that we can also construct a control-variate subsampling boomerang sampler which is also exact, and which possesses remarkable scaling properties in the large data limit. We furthermore illustrate a factorised version on the simulation of diffusion bridges.

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arXiv2019

Monte Carlo Fusion

This paper proposes a new theory and methodology to tackle the problem of unifying distributed analyses and inferences on shared parameters from multiple sources, into a single coherent inference. This surprisingly challenging problem arises in many settings (for instance, expert elicitation, multi-view learning, distributed 'big data' problems etc.), but to-date the framework and methodology proposed in this paper (Monte Carlo Fusion) is the first general approach which avoids any form of approximation error in obtaining the unified inference. In this paper we focus on the key theoretical underpinnings of this new methodology, and simple (direct) Monte Carlo interpretations of the theory. There is considerable scope to tailor the theory introduced in this paper to particular application settings (such as the big data setting), construct efficient parallelised schemes, understand the approximation and computational efficiencies of other such unification paradigms, and explore new theoretical and methodological directions.

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arXiv2018

Scalable Importance Tempering and Bayesian Variable Selection

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to high dimensionality, explicit comparison with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and illustrations of the potential improvements in efficiency. Simple and concrete intuition is provided for when the novel scheme is expected to outperform standard schemes. When applied to Bayesian variable-selection problems, the novel algorithm is orders of magnitude more efficient than available alternative sampling schemes and enables fast and reliable fully Bayesian inferences with tens of thousand regressors.

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arXiv2018

Adapting The Gibbs Sampler

The popularity of Adaptive MCMC has been fueled on the one hand by its success in applications, and on the other hand, by mathematically appealing and computationally straightforward optimisation criteria for the Metropolis algorithm acceptance rate (and, equivalently, proposal scale). Similarly principled and operational criteria for optimising the selection probabilities of the Random Scan Gibbs Sampler have not been devised to date. In the present work, we close this gap and develop a general purpose Adaptive Random Scan Gibbs Sampler that adapts the selection probabilities. The adaptation is guided by optimising the $L_2-$spectral gap for the target's Gaussian analogue, gradually, as target's global covariance is learned by the sampler. The additional computational cost of the adaptation represents a small fraction of the total simulation effort. ` We present a number of moderately- and high-dimensional examples, including truncated Gaussians, Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Hidden Markov Models, where significant computational gains are empirically observed for both, Adaptive Gibbs, and Adaptive Metropolis within Adaptive Gibbs version of the algorithm. We argue that Adaptive Random Scan Gibbs Samplers can be routinely implemented and substantial computational gains will be observed across many typical Gibbs sampling problems. We shall give conditions under which ergodicity of the adaptive algorithms can be established.

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arXiv2018

Air Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We introduce a class of Adapted Increasingly Rarely Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AirMCMC) algorithms where the underlying Markov kernel is allowed to be changed based on the whole available chain output but only at specific time points separated by an increasing number of iterations. The main motivation is the ease of analysis of such algorithms. Under the assumption of either simultaneous or (weaker) local simultaneous geometric drift condition, or simultaneous polynomial drift we prove the $L_2-$convergence, Weak and Strong Laws of Large Numbers (WLLN, SLLN), Central Limit Theorem (CLT), and discuss how our approach extends the existing results. We argue that many of the known Adaptive MCMC algorithms may be transformed into the corresponding Air versions, and provide an empirical evidence that performance of the Air version stays virtually the same.

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arXiv2017

Ergodicity of the zigzag process

The zigzag process is a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process which can be used in a MCMC framework to sample from a given target distribution. We prove the convergence of this process to its target under very weak assumptions, and establish a central limit theorem for empirical averages under stronger assumptions on the decay of the target measure. We use the classical "Meyn-Tweedie" approach. The main difficulty turns out to be the proof that the process can indeed reach all the points in the space, even if we consider the minimal switching rates.

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arXiv2017

Multilevel linear models, Gibbs samplers and multigrid decompositions

We study the convergence properties of the Gibbs Sampler in the context of posterior distributions arising from Bayesian analysis of conditionally Gaussian hierarchical models. We develop a multigrid approach to derive analytic expressions for the convergence rates of the algorithm for various widely used model structures, including nested and crossed random effects. Our results apply to multilevel models with an arbitrary number of layers in the hierarchy, while most previous work was limited to the two-level nested case. The theoretical results provide explicit and easy-to-implement guidelines to optimize practical implementations of the Gibbs Sampler, such as indications on which parametrization to choose (e.g. centred and non-centred), which constraint to impose to guarantee statistical identifiability, and which parameters to monitor in the diagnostic process. Simulations suggest that the results are informative also in the context of non-Gaussian distributions and more general MCMC schemes, such as gradient-based ones.implementation of Gibbs samplers on conditionally Gaussian hierarchical models.

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arXiv2016

The Zig-Zag Process and Super-Efficient Sampling for Bayesian Analysis of Big Data

Standard MCMC methods can scale poorly to big data settings due to the need to evaluate the likelihood at each iteration. There have been a number of approximate MCMC algorithms that use sub-sampling ideas to reduce this computational burden, but with the drawback that these algorithms no longer target the true posterior distribution. We introduce a new family of Monte Carlo methods based upon a multi-dimensional version of the Zig-Zag process of (Bierkens, Roberts, 2017), a continuous time piecewise deterministic Markov process. While traditional MCMC methods are reversible by construction (a property which is known to inhibit rapid convergence) the Zig-Zag process offers a flexible non-reversible alternative which we observe to often have favourable convergence properties. We show how the Zig-Zag process can be simulated without discretisation error, and give conditions for the process to be ergodic. Most importantly, we introduce a sub-sampling version of the Zig-Zag process that is an example of an {\em exact approximate scheme}, i.e. the resulting approximate process still has the posterior as its stationary distribution. Furthermore, if we use a control-variate idea to reduce the variance of our unbiased estimator, then the Zig-Zag process can be super-efficient: after an initial pre-processing step, essentially independent samples from the posterior distribution are obtained at a computational cost which does not depend on the size of the data.

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arXiv2015

Asymptotic Analysis of the Random-Walk Metropolis Algorithm on Ridged Densities

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the Random-Walk Metropolis algorithm on probability densities with two different `scales', where most of the probability mass is distributed along certain key directions with the `orthogonal' directions containing relatively less mass. Such class of probability measures arise in various applied contexts including Bayesian inverse problems where the posterior measure concentrates on a sub-manifold when the noise variance goes to zero. When the target measure concentrates on a linear sub-manifold, we derive analytically a diffusion limit for the Random-Walk Metropolis Markov chain as the scale parameter goes to zero. In contrast to the existing works on scaling limits, our limiting Stochastic Differential Equation does not in general have a constant diffusion coefficient. Our results show that in some cases, the usual practice of adapting the step-size to control the acceptance probability might be sub-optimal as the optimal acceptance probability is zero (in the limit).

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arXiv2015

A piecewise deterministic scaling limit of Lifted Metropolis-Hastings in the Curie-Weiss model

In Turitsyn, Chertkov, Vucelja (2011) a non-reversible Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method on an augmented state space was introduced, here referred to as Lifted Metropolis-Hastings (LMH). A scaling limit of the magnetization process in the Curie-Weiss model is derived for LMH, as well as for Metropolis-Hastings (MH). The required jump rate in the high (supercritical) temperature regime equals $n^{1/2}$ for LMH, which should be compared to $n$ for MH. At the critical temperature the required jump rate equals $n^{3/4}$ for LMH and $n^{3/2}$ for MH, in agreement with experimental results of Turitsyn, Chertkov, Vucelja (2011). The scaling limit of LMH turns out to be a non-reversible piecewise deterministic exponentially ergodic `zig-zag' Markov process.

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arXiv2012

ε-Strong simulation of the Brownian path

We present an iterative sampling method which delivers upper and lower bounding processes for the Brownian path. We develop such processes with particular emphasis on being able to unbiasedly simulate them on a personal computer. The dominating processes converge almost surely in the supremum and $L_1$ norms. In particular, the rate of converge in $L_1$ is of the order $\mathcal {O}(\mathcal{K}^{-1/2})$, $\mathcal{K}$ denoting the computing cost. The a.s. enfolding of the Brownian path can be exploited in Monte Carlo applications involving Brownian paths whence our algorithm (termed the $\varepsilon$-strong algorithm) can deliver unbiased Monte Carlo estimators over path expectations, overcoming discretisation errors characterising standard approaches. We will show analytical results from applications of the $\varepsilon$-strong algorithm for estimating expectations arising in option pricing. We will also illustrate that individual steps of the algorithm can be of separate interest, giving new simulation methods for interesting Brownian distributions.

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arXiv2012

Optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms with discontinuous target densities

We consider the optimal scaling problem for high-dimensional random walk Metropolis (RWM) algorithms where the target distribution has a discontinuous probability density function. Almost all previous analysis has focused upon continuous target densities. The main result is a weak convergence result as the dimensionality d of the target densities converges to infinity. In particular, when the proposal variance is scaled by $d^{-2}$, the sequence of stochastic processes formed by the first component of each Markov chain converges to an appropriate Langevin diffusion process. Therefore optimizing the efficiency of the RWM algorithm is equivalent to maximizing the speed of the limiting diffusion. This leads to an asymptotic optimal acceptance rate of $e^{-2}$ (=0.1353) under quite general conditions. The results have major practical implications for the implementation of RWM algorithms by highlighting the detrimental effect of choosing RWM algorithms over Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithms.

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