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Gavin Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Gavin Brown.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures can be derived via decomposition of a subjective risk, based on a strictly proper loss. Reverse cross entropy provides a prominent example, where decomposition recovers the classic information-theoretic uncertainty terms. The same approach recovers numerous measures previously proposed across the UQ literature, providing them a common theoretical foundation. This suggests a new approach to UQ: given a modelling scenario and strictly proper loss, the corresponding epistemic and aleatoric terms are induced by the subjective-risk decomposition. We then extend our view to learning theory: we introduce and analyse subjective risk analogues of excess risk, approximation error and estimation error, and identify the connections to UQ. We consider this a first step towards a full learning-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Privately Estimating Monotone Statistics in Polynomial Time

We study efficient differentially private algorithms for estimating monotone statistics, i.e., statistics that are monotone under the addition of new observations. The starting point for our investigation is subsample-and-aggregate: a classical paradigm that partitions the dataset into blocks, estimates the statistic on each block, and then privately aggregates the estimates. While practical and generically applicable, this approach is quite data-hungry. We improve upon this framework for the class of monotone statistics -- compared to subsample-and-aggregate, our algorithms save a factor of $t$ in sample complexity and pay a factor of $e^t$ in running time, where $t>0$ is a tunable parameter. We complement our results with a query-complexity lower bound, showing that our algorithms are essentially optimal for this task. As an application, we obtain improved results for private eigenvalue estimation, private loss estimation, and privately estimating a single parameter of a high-dimensional model, e.g., in linear regression.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2026

Optimal Rates for Differentially Private Hypothesis Testing with E-values

E-values have attracted considerable interest in recent years as flexible tools for enabling anytime-valid and adaptive data analysis. Hypothesis testing is at the core of many of these applications, which can often involve private or sensitive data. In this work, we answer a simple but important question: given two distributions $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$, what is the maximum achievable e-power when testing $X\sim \mathbb{P}^n$ against $X\sim\mathbb{Q}^n$ with e-values that satisfy $\varepsilon$-differential privacy? We characterize the optimal rate for this problem and provide an algorithm which matches it exactly. In the sequential setting, when observations arrive one-by-one and the analyst chooses when to halt, we give matching upper and lower bounds on the stopping times of any private e-process. Numerical experiments confirm the practicality of our algorithms, which require less data than the recently proposed DP-SPRT across a range of sequential testing problems and privacy levels.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2026

Self-Improvement for Fast, High-Quality Plan Generation

Generative models trained on synthetic plan data are a promising approach to generalized planning. Recent work has focused on finding any valid plan, rather than a high-quality solution. We address the challenge of producing high-quality plans, a computationally hard problem, in sub-exponential time. First, we demonstrate that, given optimal data, a decoder-only transformer can generate high-quality plans for unseen problem instances. Second, we show how to self-improve an initial model trained on sub-optimal data. Each round of self-improvement combines multiple model calls with graph search to generate improved plans, used for model fine-tuning. An experimental study on four domains: Blocksworld, Logistics, Labyrinth, and Sokoban, shows on average a 30% reduction in plan length over the source symbolic planner, with over 80% of plans being optimal, where the optimum is known. Plan quality is further improved by inference-time search. The model's latency scales sub-exponentially in contrast to the satisficing and optimal symbolic planners to which we compare. Together, these results suggest that self-improvement with generative models offers a scalable approach for high-quality plan generation.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Exploring Gender Differences in Tertiary Mathematics-Intensive Fields: A Critical Review of Social Cognitive Career Theory

Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT) has been extensively employed to elucidate the enduring gender differences in mathematics-intensive fields, with a particular emphasis on the complex interplay of motivational factors and extra-personal influences contributing to the underrepresentation of women. Although a plethora of empirical studies corroborate SCCT, three crucial aspects for refinement have come to the fore. First, the theory should place a more substantial emphasis on how cultural and contextual diversity influences academic choices. Second, given the dynamic nature of motivation, which evolves over time, more longitudinal analyses are imperative to capture their temporal trajectory, in contrast to the predominantly cross-sectional empirical studies. Finally, considering the intricate interplay between emotion and motivation, integrating the dimension of emotion into SCCT would significantly augment its explanatory power and provide a more comprehensive understanding of academic selection processes.

math.HO↗
arXiv2025

Tukey Depth Mechanisms for Practical Private Mean Estimation

Mean estimation is a fundamental task in statistics and a focus within differentially private statistical estimation. While univariate methods based on the Gaussian mechanism are widely used in practice, more advanced techniques such as the exponential mechanism over quantiles offer robustness and improved performance, especially for small sample sizes. Tukey depth mechanisms carry these advantages to multivariate data, providing similar strong theoretical guarantees. However, practical implementations fall behind these theoretical developments. In this work, we take the first step to bridge this gap by implementing the (Restricted) Tukey Depth Mechanism, a theoretically optimal mean estimator for multivariate Gaussian distributions, yielding improved practical methods for private mean estimation. Our implementations enable the use of these mechanisms for small sample sizes or low-dimensional data. Additionally, we implement variants of these mechanisms that use approximate versions of Tukey depth, trading off accuracy for faster computation. We demonstrate their efficiency in practice, showing that they are viable options for modest dimensions. Given their strong accuracy and robustness guarantees, we contend that they are competitive approaches for mean estimation in this regime. We explore future directions for improving the computational efficiency of these algorithms by leveraging fast polytope volume approximation techniques, paving the way for more accurate private mean estimation in higher dimensions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Noncommutative Singularity Theory

This is an expository article on the noncommutative singularity theory of power series in noncommuting variables, its motivation from deformation theory, and its applications to contractibility of curves and the classification of smooth 3-fold flops.

math.AG↗
arXiv2024

Insufficient Statistics Perturbation: Stable Estimators for Private Least Squares

We present a sample- and time-efficient differentially private algorithm for ordinary least squares, with error that depends linearly on the dimension and is independent of the condition number of $X^\top X$, where $X$ is the design matrix. All prior private algorithms for this task require either $d^{3/2}$ examples, error growing polynomially with the condition number, or exponential time. Our near-optimal accuracy guarantee holds for any dataset with bounded statistical leverage and bounded residuals. Technically, we build on the approach of Brown et al. (2023) for private mean estimation, adding scaled noise to a carefully designed stable nonprivate estimator of the empirical regression vector.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Dynamics Around the Earth-Moon Triangular Points in the Hill Restricted 4-Body Problem

This paper investigates the motion of a small particle moving near the triangular points of the Earth-Moon system. The dynamics are modeled in the Hill restricted 4-body problem (HR4BP), which includes the effect of the Earth and Moon as in the circular restricted 3-body problem (CR3BP), as well as the direct and indirect effect of the Sun as a periodic time-dependent perturbation of the CR3BP. Due to the periodic perturbation, the triangular points of the CR3BP are no longer equilibrium solutions; rather, the triangular points are replaced by periodic orbits with the same period as the perturbation. Additionally, there is a 2:1 resonant periodic orbit that persists from the CR3BP into the HR4BP. In this work, we investigate the dynamics around these invariant objects by computing families of 2-dimensional invariant tori and their linear normal behavior. We identify bifurcations and relationships between families. Mechanisms for transport between Earth, L4, and Moon are discussed. Comparisons are made between the results presented here and in the bicircular problem (BCP).

math.DS↗
arXiv2024

Private Gradient Descent for Linear Regression: Tighter Error Bounds and Instance-Specific Uncertainty Estimation

We provide an improved analysis of standard differentially private gradient descent for linear regression under the squared error loss. Under modest assumptions on the input, we characterize the distribution of the iterate at each time step. Our analysis leads to new results on the algorithm's accuracy: for a proper fixed choice of hyperparameters, the sample complexity depends only linearly on the dimension of the data. This matches the dimension-dependence of the (non-private) ordinary least squares estimator as well as that of recent private algorithms that rely on sophisticated adaptive gradient-clipping schemes (Varshney et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2023). Our analysis of the iterates' distribution also allows us to construct confidence intervals for the empirical optimizer which adapt automatically to the variance of the algorithm on a particular data set. We validate our theorems through experiments on synthetic data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Metalearning with Very Few Samples Per Task

Metalearning and multitask learning are two frameworks for solving a group of related learning tasks more efficiently than we could hope to solve each of the individual tasks on their own. In multitask learning, we are given a fixed set of related learning tasks and need to output one accurate model per task, whereas in metalearning we are given tasks that are drawn i.i.d. from a metadistribution and need to output some common information that can be easily specialized to new tasks from the metadistribution. We consider a binary classification setting where tasks are related by a shared representation, that is, every task $P$ can be solved by a classifier of the form $f_{P} \circ h$ where $h \in H$ is a map from features to a representation space that is shared across tasks, and $f_{P} \in F$ is a task-specific classifier from the representation space to labels. The main question we ask is how much data do we need to metalearn a good representation? Here, the amount of data is measured in terms of the number of tasks $t$ that we need to see and the number of samples $n$ per task. We focus on the regime where $n$ is extremely small. Our main result shows that, in a distribution-free setting where the feature vectors are in $\mathbb{R}^d$, the representation is a linear map from $\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^k$, and the task-specific classifiers are halfspaces in $\mathbb{R}^k$, we can metalearn a representation with error $\varepsilon$ using $n = k+2$ samples per task, and $d \cdot (1/\varepsilon)^{O(k)}$ tasks. Learning with so few samples per task is remarkable because metalearning would be impossible with $k+1$ samples per task, and because we cannot even hope to learn an accurate task-specific classifier with $k+2$ samples per task. Our work also yields a characterization of distribution-free multitask learning and reductions between meta and multitask learning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Derived deformation theory of crepant curves

This paper determines the full derived deformation theory of certain smooth rational curves C in Calabi-Yau 3-folds, by determining all higher A_\infty-products in its controlling DG-algebra. This geometric setup includes very general cases where C does not contract, cases where the curve neighbourhood is not rational, all known simple smooth 3-fold flops, and all known divisorial contractions to curves. As a corollary, it is shown that the noncommutative deformation theory of C can be described as a superpotential algebra derived from what we call free necklace polynomials, which are elements in the free algebra obtained via a closed formula from combinatorial gluing data. The description of these polynomials, together with the above results, establishes a suitably interpreted string theory prediction due to Ferrari, Aspinwall-Katz and Curto-Morrison. Perhaps most significantly, the main results give both the language and evidence to finally formulate new contractibility conjectures for rational curves in CY 3-folds, which lift Artin's celebrated results from surfaces.

math.AG↗
arXiv2023

A max-affine spline approximation of neural networks using the Legendre transform of a convex-concave representation

This work presents a novel algorithm for transforming a neural network into a spline representation. Unlike previous work that required convex and piecewise-affine network operators to create a max-affine spline alternate form, this work relaxes this constraint. The only constraint is that the function be bounded and possess a well-define second derivative, although this was shown experimentally to not be strictly necessary. It can also be performed over the whole network rather than on each layer independently. As in previous work, this bridges the gap between neural networks and approximation theory but also enables the visualisation of network feature maps. Mathematical proof and experimental investigation of the technique is performed with approximation error and feature maps being extracted from a range of architectures, including convolutional neural networks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Tiny Classifier Circuits: Evolving Accelerators for Tabular Data

A typical machine learning (ML) development cycle for edge computing is to maximise the performance during model training and then minimise the memory/area footprint of the trained model for deployment on edge devices targeting CPUs, GPUs, microcontrollers, or custom hardware accelerators. This paper proposes a methodology for automatically generating predictor circuits for classification of tabular data with comparable prediction performance to conventional ML techniques while using substantially fewer hardware resources and power. The proposed methodology uses an evolutionary algorithm to search over the space of logic gates and automatically generates a classifier circuit with maximised training prediction accuracy. Classifier circuits are so tiny (i.e., consisting of no more than 300 logic gates) that they are called "Tiny Classifier" circuits, and can efficiently be implemented in ASIC or on an FPGA. We empirically evaluate the automatic Tiny Classifier circuit generation methodology or "Auto Tiny Classifiers" on a wide range of tabular datasets, and compare it against conventional ML techniques such as Amazon's AutoGluon, Google's TabNet and a neural search over Multi-Layer Perceptrons. Despite Tiny Classifiers being constrained to a few hundred logic gates, we observe no statistically significant difference in prediction performance in comparison to the best-performing ML baseline. When synthesised as a Silicon chip, Tiny Classifiers use 8-18x less area and 4-8x less power. When implemented as an ultra-low cost chip on a flexible substrate (i.e., FlexIC), they occupy 10-75x less area and consume 13-75x less power compared to the most hardware-efficient ML baseline. On an FPGA, Tiny Classifiers consume 3-11x fewer resources.

cs.AR↗
arXiv2023

Fast, Sample-Efficient, Affine-Invariant Private Mean and Covariance Estimation for Subgaussian Distributions

We present a fast, differentially private algorithm for high-dimensional covariance-aware mean estimation with nearly optimal sample complexity. Only exponential-time estimators were previously known to achieve this guarantee. Given $n$ samples from a (sub-)Gaussian distribution with unknown mean $\mu$ and covariance $\Sigma$, our $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-differentially private estimator produces $\tilde{\mu}$ such that $\|\mu - \tilde{\mu}\|_{\Sigma} \leq \alpha$ as long as $n \gtrsim \tfrac d {\alpha^2} + \tfrac{d \sqrt{\log 1/\delta}}{\alpha \varepsilon}+\frac{d\log 1/\delta}{\varepsilon}$. The Mahalanobis error metric $\|\mu - \hat{\mu}\|_{\Sigma}$ measures the distance between $\hat \mu$ and $\mu$ relative to $\Sigma$; it characterizes the error of the sample mean. Our algorithm runs in time $\tilde{O}(nd^{\omega - 1} + nd/\varepsilon)$, where $\omega < 2.38$ is the matrix multiplication exponent. We adapt an exponential-time approach of Brown, Gaboardi, Smith, Ullman, and Zakynthinou (2021), giving efficient variants of stable mean and covariance estimation subroutines that also improve the sample complexity to the nearly optimal bound above. Our stable covariance estimator can be turned to private covariance estimation for unrestricted subgaussian distributions. With $n\gtrsim d^{3/2}$ samples, our estimate is accurate in spectral norm. This is the first such algorithm using $n= o(d^2)$ samples, answering an open question posed by Alabi et al. (2022). With $n\gtrsim d^2$ samples, our estimate is accurate in Frobenius norm. This leads to a fast, nearly optimal algorithm for private learning of unrestricted Gaussian distributions in TV distance. Duchi, Haque, and Kuditipudi (2023) obtained similar results independently and concurrently.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

A Unified Theory of Diversity in Ensemble Learning

We present a theory of ensemble diversity, explaining the nature of diversity for a wide range of supervised learning scenarios. This challenge has been referred to as the holy grail of ensemble learning, an open research issue for over 30 years. Our framework reveals that diversity is in fact a hidden dimension in the bias-variance decomposition of the ensemble loss. We prove a family of exact bias-variance-diversity decompositions, for a wide range of losses in both regression and classification, e.g., squared, cross-entropy, and Poisson losses. For losses where an additive bias-variance decomposition is not available (e.g., 0/1 loss) we present an alternative approach: quantifying the effects of diversity, which turn out to be dependent on the label distribution. Overall, we argue that diversity is a measure of model fit, in precisely the same sense as bias and variance, but accounting for statistical dependencies between ensemble members. Thus, we should not be maximising diversity as so many works aim to do -- instead, we have a bias/variance/diversity trade-off to manage.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Computation and data in the classification of Fano varieties

Fano varieties are 'atomic pieces' of algebraic varieties, the shapes that can be defined by polynomial equations. We describe the role of computation and database methods in the construction and classification of Fano varieties, with an emphasis on three-dimensional Fano varieties with mild singularities called Q-Fano threefolds. The classification of Q-Fano threefolds has been open for several decades, but there has been significant recent progress. These advances combine computational algebraic geometry and large-scale data analysis with new ideas that originated in theoretical physics.

math.AG↗